Hammer Time

Hammer Time DFS
9/12/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning money on football. LET’S GOOO (win some money)!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. And remember to bet in moderation!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

TNF Bets:
I wasn’t able to finish this article by opening night, but for record-keeping, I hit on 4 of my 5 Thursday night football picks, including a same game 3-leg parlay! Here’s how it played out:
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score first (+550 at DraftKings)—missed
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score (-125 at DraftKings)—hit!
· KC -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings) —hit!
· Same Game Parlay: 3-legs (+216 at FanDuel)—hit!
Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score
KC money line
Alternate over 49.5 total points
· Will Fuller over 63.5 yards (-130 at DraftKings)—hit!

Let’s dive into the remaining picks for Week 1!

Spreads:

CHI money line (+120 on FanDuel): Let’s be honest: Mitchell Trubisky is a bust and I fully expect Nick Foles (#bdn) to take over before Chicago’s BYE week. However, Mitch has owned the Lions so far in his short career. Detroit’s strength is the offensive side of the ball, but Kenny Golladay is doubtful and we don’t know how the muddy backfield will shake up. Take the plus money and hammer the Bears. Sorry, https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

SEA -2.5 (-110 on DraftKings) and over 49 total points (-110 on DraftKings): The odds makers in Vegas would have us believe that the Seahawks would only be favored by 5.5 points on a neutral field. I’m not buying that. This Seahawks squad, which was 11-5 last season and one play away from being a top seed in the playoffs, is not being given the respect it deserves. Give me the Seahawks covering by less than a field goal. As a bonus, I’ll also take the over because I love these high-powered offenses. #letrusscook

PIT -5.5 (-115 on FanDuel): The Pittsburgh Steelers went 8-8 last season with guys named Mason Rudolph and “Duck” Hodges under center. New York’s defense is still a weak spot so expect a healthy Big Ben and James Connor to take advantage. The Steelers may have the top defense in the league in 2020, so I trust them to keep Saquon Barkley in check and “Danny Dimes” well in check. Give me the Steelers, Vegas; you can have the points.

GB +2.5 (-109 on DraftKings): The front office lit a fire under Aaron Rodgers when they drafted his heir apparent in the 2020 NFL Draft. Rodgers may have limited weapons but that didn’t stop him last season. Green Bay’s 2019 schedule was on the softer side, but we can’t discount the fact that the Packers compiled 13 wins, earned the 2nd seed, and swept Minnesota last season. The Vikings lost some key players on defense in the off-season, so I expect the Packers offense to handily control this game. The books are giving the Vikings an edge for being at home, but why? Fans are not allowed at U.S. Bank Stadium for at least the first two games, which eliminates any “home-field advantage” in my mind. I’ll take a hungry Rodgers with something to prove and the points, please.

Teaser:

IND -2.5/PIT +0.5 (-130 at FanDuel): The Jaguars are tanking for Trevor—no matter how hard they try to deny it. The organization is an utter mess, with Tony Khan, the senior VP of football administration, getting into Twitter spats with players. Take it from former players, such as Jalen Ramsey, Yannick Ngakoue, and Leonard Fournette, who managed to force themselves out of the toxic locker room: this is not an organization that wants to win right now. 8.5 is too much to comfortably lay in a season opener—especially one that follows the most uncertain off-season in NFL history—against a divisional opponent, however, so I’ll take the Colts in a teaser with the bonus 6 points. It’s hard to choose who to pair them with, but I’ll go with the Steelers.

Special Promo (does not count towards my picks record):
· LAR spread over DAL (-110 at FanDuel): FanDuel Sports book is currently running another “spread the love” promotion: they’re moving the spread by 1 point in favor of the Rams for every 5,000 fans who bet on L.A. using the promo (everyone will benefit from the final point spread). At the time of this writing, the spread is already +11. These promotions are locks, so make sure you take full advantage of the max $50 wager!

Player Props:

BUF WR Stefon Diggs

· Diggs over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel): After trading away Jamal Adams, the New York Jets have arguably the worst secondary in the league. Expect Josh Allen to use his newest toy early to prove he can in fact throw deep. It just takes one play…
· DeSean Jackson to score (+200 at FanDuel): The Eagles will be missing Alshon Jeffrey on Sunday and rookie Jalen Reagor may be on a limited snap count, making Jackson a centerpiece of the Eagles aerial attack. Jackson tends to go off on former teams and on opening day (more on that later). Expect fireworks.
· Jared Goff over 285.5 passing yards (+100 at FanDuel): I’m not sold on the Rams running back by committee approach and, as much as I hate to admit it, Dallas should have a dangerous offense this season. That equates to Goff airing it out early and often. I like Cooper Kupp and the ever-underrated “Bobby Trees” against the Cowboys secondary so I’ll lean towards the over here.
· Todd Gurley over 57.5 yards (-110 at FanDuel): Sure, Todd Gurley has the knees of an 84-year-old grandma, but the Falcons don’t really have another back capable of producing on the ground. His arthritic knee will undoubtedly cap his upside this season, but he should be fresh entering Week 1. Hammer him while you can.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

· Josh Jacobs over 77.5 (-110 on FanDuel): The Panthers had the worst run defense in 2019 and they are now without Dontari Poe, who is now with the Cowboys, and Luke Kuechly, who retired in January. Josh Jacobs is going to E-A-T. Feed the man.
· Aaron Jones to score (+108 on DraftKings) and Aaron Jones over 64.5 yards (-112 on DraftKings): I mentioned earlier that I liked the Packers with the points because of Minnesota’s deteriorating defense. The Vikings traded for Yannick Ngakoue to replace the departed Everson Griffen, but the interior line is going to be as soft as pudding without Linval Joseph. The Packers have made their plans to run first painfully clear in the off-season and with A.J. Dillon losing the backup running back job to Jamaal Williams (for now), Jones’ path to success is clear.

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson

***BEST BET ALERT*** DeSean Jackson over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel): DeSean Jackson and revenge games go together like peanut butter and jelly. And just like peanut butter, Jackson can be lethal to some. He can easily hit this mark on a single play. The stats speak for themselves:
He has averaged a whopping 17.4 yards per reception in his career—best in the NFL among active players—and has led the league in that category 4 times in his career: 2018 (18.9), 2016 (17.9), 2014 (20.9), and 2010 (22.5). He is also one of just 6 wide receivers in NFL history averaging at least 17 yards per reception while compiling 10,000 or more total yards.
He has 37 career games with 100-plus receiving yards, behind only Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown.
He has 31 career 50-plus yard touchdowns, which ranks second in NFL history (five short of Jerry Rice).
He is also the third-oldest player in NFL history to record multiple 50-plus yards receiving touchdowns in a single game.
He surpassed Jerry Rice in 2019 for the most 60-plus yard touchdowns in NFL history with 24.
He has recorded 6 opening day games with 100-plus receiving yards—tied with Michael Irvin for most in NFL history.
With Alshon Jeffrey ruled out nursing a never-ending foot injury and rookie Jalen Reagor active but recovering from a shoulder injury just weeks ago, Jackson is primed for another breakout opening day performance against an NFC East rival and former club. He’s looked great in camp so far and coming off a season in which he missed 15 games, he should have fresh legs. Most importantly, he’ll be hungry. Hammer. The. Over.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Bottom of the Barrel WK1 (NFL DFS)

Bottom of the Barrel
9/5/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Football is here! We’ve made it! Damn this feels good!

Last time we spoke Bottom of the Barrel wasn’t much of a thing. Yes I’ve written B&B for the better part of five seasons but things have changed. Social media has welcomed me with open arms. I’ve been able to grow and expand my content big time. For that I’m grateful and thankful for the support!

What is Bottom of the Barrel? Just a silly idea that came to me a few years ago. Since then DFS has really taken off! We all know the high priced studs to start week to week right? Unfortunately there is a cap on Fanduel and Draftkings so we have spend to wisely. B&B helps you fill in your DFS lineups with cheaper high upside guys!

Social media has been jam packed with fantasy football content for months now. Some good and some bad. It’s Twitter though so that’s to be expected. In turn, what should we expect the first week of the NFL season? As it stands now there are a ton of questions! Realistically we don’t know how the targets and touches are going to shake out across the board.

With week one upon us let me help! Let’s work it out together!

QUARTERBACK

I have a new idea! A new feature if you will. Give out the most expensive player at each position as we get to it. Putting into perspective the B&B prices!

Patrick Mahomes KC v HOU(31st)(FD-$9,500)(DK-$7,400)

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at QB!

Cam Newton NE v MIA(30th)(FD-$7,400)(DK-$6,100)

New England QB Cam Newton

Cam is the Patriots new shiny toy! Week 1 vs. a divisional rival? Admittedly there are a few questions marks in terms of his rushing yardage but at the price I’m in!

Jimmy Garoppolo SF v ARZ(32nd)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$5,800)

This one isn’t sexy but facing the 32nd ranked DST vs. QB’s is very sexy! Plus I’ve heard he’s been working on his deep passing!

Tyrod Taylor LAC @ CIN(28th)(FD-$7,000)(DK-$5,600)

Chargers QB Tyrod Taylor

As a starting QB Tyrod has preformed at or above all of his seasonal projections. Not to mention all the weapons at his disposal! Mix in some rushing yards and it’s a no-brainer.

Teddy Bridgewater CAR v OAK(25th)(FD-$6,800)(DK-$5,900)

Let’s be honest and say what we’re all thinking. One or two passes to CMC could make Teddy’s price gravy. Throw in DJ Moore and the upside is there!

Gardner Minshew II JAX v IND(21st)(FD-$6,700)(DK-$5,800)

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew

There is something about this guy! He’s likeable and people are drawn to him. Fandom isn’t going to win us money but his rushing yards just might!

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey CAR v OAK(19th)(FD-$10,000)(DK-$10,000)

Carolina Panther RB Christian McCaffrery

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at RB!

Jonathan Taylor IND @ JAX(31st)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$5,700)

Colts rookie RB Jonathan Taylor

Recently JT has taken a beating for dropping a few passes. He’s been the talk of social media for week 1 so who am I to disagree? Plus I’m thinking this will be the cheapest he ever is on both sites.

James White NE v MIA(26th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$6,000)

Patriots RB James White

I don’t know about you but Cam has only excited me more for White! Sony, Rex or the recently cut Lamar Miller doesn’t change White’s value. He’s pure gold on site like FD with PPR points.

Tarik Cohen CHI @ DET(29th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,900)

Chicago RB Tarik Cohen

Cohen hasn’t missed a game in three season and you know what you’re getting. He’s the textbook complimentary RB on your DFS roster. Opening the season in Detroit with Mitch at QB isn’t as awful as you think!

Boston Scott PHI @ WSH(30th)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$4,800)

Eagles RB Boston Scott

Scott has been able to get more first team reps recently with Sanders sidelined. Humor me a moment, PHI gets up big and Scott sees a full quarter maybe more chalked full of garbage time! Still counts people!

Nyheim Hines IND @ JAX(31st)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,000)

Indianapolis Colts RB Nyheim Hines

Mack and JT, all we’ve heard about this off-season. What if I told you Hines could become what James White is in New England! You heard it here first!

Antonio Gibson WSH v PHI(5th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$4,000)

Normally I march to the beat of my own drummer and I am now. I’m bringing up Gibson to tell you one thing. Use at your own risk. He might be the chalkiest RB going week 1. So do you want to join the masses or do you want to win money? The choice is yours. Exercise caution here!

WIDE RECEIVER

Michael Thomas NO v TB(32nd)(FD-$8,800)(DK-$9,000)

New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at WR!

DeSean Jackson PHI @ WSH(21st)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$4,900)

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson

It’s week 1 people. You know the drill…
2019 week 1 – 8 receptions 154 yards 2 TD
2018 week 1 – 5 receptions 146 yards 2 TD

N’Keal Harry NE v MIA(31st)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,400)

Patriots WR N’Keal Harry

Cut after cut and Harry is still standing! Strong as ever! Get in on the ground floor here! Oh yeah MIA is a very favorable match-up!

Russell Gage ATL v SEA(14th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$4,300)

Falcon WR Russel Gage

Julio and Ridley. Julio and Ridley. Reminds of Jane from the Brady Bunch always feeling left out! Gage gets his week 1!

Greg Ward PHI @ WSH(21st)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,200)

Nothing fancy here, Greg is in the mix after a WR process of elimination. Alshon is out. Rookie Jalen Reagor is out. Everybody is on Ertz/Jackson so sneak in Greg Ward!

Trent Taylor SF v ARZ(25th)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$3,900)

The sneakiest of plays! Taylor missed the entire 2019 season with a foot injury and now he’s a healthy WR among a slew of unhealthy SF WR’s! Would it be wild to roster a Jimmy G/Trent Taylor stack?

Scotty Miller TB @ NO(27th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,000)

Tampa Brady WR Scotty Miller

Little to no talk about Scotty! Rightfully so given the plethora of studs in Tompa Bay right now! It looks as if Scotty has locked down the slot role in TB. Which is sweet gig when TB12 is your QB. There should plenty of room for the 23 year old speedster to find in New Orleans week 1.

TIGHT END

George Kittle SF v ARZ(32nd)(FD-$8,000)(DK-$7,200)

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at TE!

Jonnu Smith TEN @ DEN(13th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,400)

Titans TE Jonnu Smith

Have any of you seen the twitter photo of Jonnu last month? He’s the unquestioned TE1 in Tennessee on a damn good offense. He’s priced very reasonably for the type of production I expect in week 1.

Irv Smith Jr. MIN @ GB(28th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$3,100)

Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr.

We’ve all heard how Irv Jr. is expected to see a larger role right? Well let’s quit talking about it and be about it! No time like the present!

Cole Kmet CHI @ DET(15th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$3,400)

Are you scared of Jimmy Graham? I’m not! Guy is a shell of himself. Hurts to say this but the Bears torched the Lions TWICE last season! While Mitch threw six total TD’s. This could be a case of Chicago trying out their new 6’6 TE in the red zone once or twice. Just the dart throw I’m looking for at TE!

Here are two of my sample lines I’m going to use for week 1! Keep in mind these lines are for entertainment purposes! Please play responsible!

FD 8:20p ET (Thu-Mon)

Also look for updated lines closer to the start of the season! This Thursday 9/10 and Sunday morning 9/13!

DK 9/10 (Thu-Mon)

Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1