PGA Tee To Green – Arnold Palmer Invitational

PGA Tee To Green
Arnold Palmer Invitational
By DfsDudes – @dfscheatsheet1

The Arnold Palmer Invitational
March 5 – 8

 

 

Before we get started, we offer a free discord chat, its like 7-11, its always open.  Our Discord chat is 100% FREE and gives you direct access to our DFS Pro’s, daily.  Click here to join our Discord, FOR FREE.  Come interact with us, ask us questions, get lineup help or just strike up a conversation.  

Course

This week the PGA Tour stops in Orlando at the Bay Hill Golf Course for the 42nd edition of The Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill lays out as four Par 3’s, ten Par 4’s and 4 Par 5’s. 16, 17, 18 is one of the best finishing stretches in golf. The 16th is a reachable Par 5 a solid drive sets up a shot over water to get home in two. The 16th green is blanketed by a beach of bunkers that belly up to water short right. Finally, the 18th is one of the most iconic holes in all of golf. Getting it in the fairway isn’t enough, you’ve got to set up your approach shot off the tee. This is one of my favorite tournaments on the PGA Tour and I’ll look forward to someone stepping to the 18th tee on Sunday with the tournament on the line.

Weather

This week It looks as if the course will dodge any rain prior to the opening round. Look for tempters to hover in the mid 60’s to low 70’s over the weekend, but Thursday’s opening round forecasts call for 90 degree partly cloudy weather before diving back into the low 70’s on Friday. Wednesday the forecast calls for a high of 89 degrees, as mentioned before, 90 degrees on Thursday, the course could get very fast with high heat and wind in play.

Field and Cut

The cut this week is the Top 65 and ties after the completion of the second round. There are some stars in this field, however Tiger Woods did WD with lower back stiffness last week.

Top 10 in the Field

1. Rory Mcllroy
3. Brooks Koepka
6. Adam Scott
8. Patrick Reed

There are 13 players in the World Golf Rankings Top 25 in the field this week.

Recent Winners

2019 Francesco Molinari
2018 Rory MCllroy
2017 Marc Leishman
2016 Jason Day

What Oddsmakers Say

Rory Mcllroy +500
Tommy Fleetwood +1400
Hideki Matsuyama +1600
Bryson DeChambeau +1800
Xander Schauffele +2000
Adam Scott +2200
Patrick Reed +2500
Sungjae Im +2500
Brooks Koepka +2800

Key Stats To Consider

Strokes Gained Off The Tee
Strokes Gained On Approach
Greens In Regulation
Par 5 Scoring Average
Par 3 Performance
Strokes Gained (Scrambling)

The Bottom Line

This is not an easy golf course. Yes, they’ve widened some fairways over the last couple of years and the course is minus some trees. However, with the heat prior to the tournament and in the opening round, don’t discount that water comes into play on 8 holes. On those 8 holes, the rough bordering the water is gone, balls close to water will not stop they’ll roll on in the drink. I personally don’t think you have to be a guy who bombs it to win. I do think that Rory is the best player in the field with a game fit specially for a golf course like Bay Hill. Rory is T8 in Par 3 Performance, 1st in Par 5 Scoring Average, T13th in Greens In Regulation, 1st in strokes gained scrambling, 3rd in strokes gained on approach and 7th in Strokes gained off the tee.

PGA Core Plays – The Honda Classic

PGA Core Plays
The Honda Classic
By Derek Hill – @derekhill87

 

 

PGA Core Plays

 

The tour heads to Florida for the next 4 weeks and presents a very tough test this week at PGA National for the Honda Classic. As was mentioned in my weekly “Playing the Tips” segment, we are missing many of the top ranked players on the tour this week at they begin to strategize how to peak at Augusta. It is becoming such a popular thing that many of the players skipping this week are essentially skipping a home event as they live in the area.

Even with many top players skipping this week, the field is still loaded with talent. There is a long list of guys who could bring home the trophy this week. Let’s get started in evaluating the course and who has the best chance at winning.

PGA National Champions course is known as one of the toughest on tour. The winning score last year was 9 under par. That is actually a pretty impressive score when you consider that 14 of 18 holes played over par last year. There are several really tough holes that will produce plenty of double bogey or worse scores. The famous stretch is the “Bear Trap” named after Jack Nicklaus who redesigned the course and made these holes more challenging. They are shorter holes that require a lot of precision and course management skill. The players will have to judge the wind and hit good shots to avoid ending up in the water. It requires guys to keep their nerves under control as they come down the stretch. It should be fun to watch the leaders manage these holes on Sunday. Winds may be strong over the weekend, so don’t be surprised if you see a couple guys falter on the closing holes.

You may be wondering what makes PGA National so tough. The fairways are wide with generous landing areas. There are big Bermuda grass greens. However, there is long, overseeded, Bermuda grass rough that can make it almost impossible to get the ball close to the pin. There are also really lengthy par 3s and 4s. The ones that are not short are exposed to significant winds that bring all sorts of trouble (water and bunkers) into play. Ball striking and the ability to control the ball are crucial this week.

There are just so many holes on this course that can produce bogeys (or worse), that avoiding big numbers as much as possible is important to win this week. Keith Mitchell won last year because he didn’t make a single double bogey. He wasn’t great in any one category, but he avoided mistakes.

When considering what stats are important this week. The ones that come to mind are:
Bogey Avoidance
Birdie:Bogey Ratio
SG: Approach
Proximity to Hole on Approach
Birdie or Better: 200+ (as well as 150-175)

The top-end plays are limited this week, but the mid-tier section is loaded. Get as many of those guys as you can in your lineups this week.

I also wanted to try something new starting this week: If you are unsure of why I like a guy in the “others to consider” category, reach out to me on twitter @derekhill87. I would love to share my thoughts.

These are the guys that have the best shot:

Top-End Pick: Rickie Fowler

This is just a course that fits Rickie well. Controlling the ball in windy conditions is a strength of his. He is the all-time earnings leader at PGA National. Since 2012 he is 7 for 8 in cuts made with 4 top 10s, including a win in 2017 and 2nd last year. Ranked 14th in Birdie:Bogey Ratio.

Other guys I like

Tommy Fleetwood: This could very well be the week that Fleetwood gets his first win on the PGA tour. It is long overdue for such a talented player. He would almost surely have a win if he played more frequently. Great form as of late with his worst finish being T18 in his last 5 worldwide starts. Has only appeared here once but finished an impressive 4th. Had 4 rounds of par or better last year. Similar to Fowler, he plays well in the wind and controls his ball very well. Ranked T7 in Birdie or better 150-175 yards.

Gary Woodland: There are a lot of stats that support Woodland playing well this week. 5th in bogey avoidance, 9th in Birdie:Bogey Ratio, 2nd in ball striking, 14th Birdie or Better 200+ yards, 11th GIR, T2 in 2017. 7 for 7 in cuts made. Another strong candidate to win.

Others to consider: Brooks Koepka (good chance if truly healthy), Justin Rose (good results but first time playing in 5 years), Louis Oosthuizen

Mid-Tier Pick: Billy Horschel

Born and raised Florida guy. Well acquainted with Bermuda Grass. Strong history at PGA National including 2 top 10s and a 16th last year. Horschel is one of the hotter players on tour coming off of back to back T9 finishes. 16th in SG: Putting.

Other mid-tier guys I like

Harris English: I really like Harris this week. Having a much better season than last year when he placed T12 at the Honda Classic. 8 for his last 9 in cuts made including 4 top 10s. Also had a T16 at the Waste Management. On top of that, the stats point toward a really good week. He leads the tour in Bogey Avoidance, 4th in Birdie: Bogey Ratio. Has improved his finishes at PGA National each of the last 3 years.

Wyndham Clark: 12th in Birdie or better: 200+, 19th in SG: Putting, led after 54 holes in his lone appearance in 2019 ending in a 7th place finish. Had 2 top 20s on the west coast swing.

Others to Consider: Corey Conners, Daniel Berger, Lucas Glover, Ryan Palmer, Emiliano Grillo, Russel Knox, Charl Schwartzel

Value Play: Talor Gooch

Contending at Riviera is no joke. It means you can play tough courses with the best of the best. It was not an outlier either as Gooch has made his last 10 cuts. Finished 20th last year.

Other guys I like

Kyoung-Hoon Lee: T13 and T14 in his last 2 starts. 7th place finish last years. 15th in proximity to the hole from the rough. Co-led in GIR and par 4 scoring last year on this course.

Matthew NeSmith: First timer at PGA National, but has the resume to be a successful debutant. Matthew has the accuracy and putting to avoid big numbersT14 in GIR, 17th in Birdie:Bogey Ratio, 24th in SG:Putting. He has made 7 consecutive cuts and finished T6 last week in Puerto Rico.

Others to consider: Jim Furyk

PGA Tee To Green – The Honda Classic

PGA Tee To Green
The Honda Classic
By DfsDudes

The Honda Classic
February 27th – March 1st

Course

The Honda Classic is played at PGA National Golf Club in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. PGA National is a Par 71 track and plays at 7,310 yards. The course is made up of 11 par 4’s, 4 Par 3’s and 3 Par 5’s. The famed “Bear Trap” known as probably one of the more nerve wrecking three hole stretches in golf, is made up of holes 15, 16 and 17. The 15th begins the Bear Trap, a 160 yard Par 3 over water. The 16th is a 443 yard Par 4 dogleg right, the toughest par 4 on the course. The 17th, once again, a 156 yard Par 3, over water with the wind in your face, and a green sandwiched between water and a deep bunker behind it. Oh, yea, by the way, once you make it through the bear trap you arrive at the 18th tee, where you can reach this double dogleg in two.

Weather

Wednesday is supposed to bring warm weather and thunderstorms, this could soften the course up a bit and make for a very long and soft golf course on Thursday Morning. Tuesday the high is 84 degrees and so is Wednesday. After the thunderstorm’s Wednesday, the weather will still be nice for the weekend, but, much cooler. Mid 60’s to Low 70’s cap of the rest of the week. WIND… we are going to see some pretty windy conditions over the weekend, Thursday’s forecast calls for winds steady at 11mph climbing to 15mph on Friday and peaking at 18mph Saturday before calming back down to 15mph on Sunday for the final round.

Field and Cut

Missing this week is a majority of the Top 15 players in the world. The Cut this weekend is “The Top 65 and ties after the first two rounds”.

2. Brooks Koepka
11. Tommy Fleetwood
17. Louis Oosthuizen
18. Shane Lowry
19. Gary Woodland
26. Rickie Fowler
30. Lee Westwood
32. Sungjae Im
40. Billy Horschel
41. Matt Wallace
42. Sergio Garcia
50. Byeong Hun An

Recent Winners

2019 Keith Mitchell
2018 Justin Thomas *Not in the field this week.
2017 Ricky Fowler
2016 Adam Scott *Not in the field this week
2015 Padraig Harrington

What The Oddsmakers Say

Tommmy Fleetwood +1200
Brooks Koepka +1200
Ricky Fowler +1400
Gary Woodland +2200
Justin Rose +2500
Louis Oosthuizen +2500
Billy Horschel +2500
Viktor Holland +2800
Sungjae Im + 3300
Daniel Berger +3300

*Patrick Reed was +3300, last weeks winner at the WGC Mexico Championship.

Key Stats To Consider

Ball Striking
Bogey Avoidance
Strokes Gained Putting – Patrick Reed picked up almost 12 strokes on the field putting last week.
Strokes gained Approach – There are some difficult shots into greens that are awkward and sandwiched between trouble.
Greens In Regulation

The Bottom Line

My gut feeling here it that weather is going to play a key role in deciding this week’s winner. Yes, its Florida, the weather will be nice, but, the winds will be a-blowing. There is potential for thunderstorms on Wednesday that will soften this course up and make it longer and slower also. Im looking For Ball Strikers who can control ball flight, hit fairways and greens and make up strokes on the field on the green. Gary Woodland is 2nd in Ball striking. Harris English leads the field in Bogey Avoidance. Louis Oosthuizen leads the field in Strokes gained putting. Jim Fuyrk is 8th on tour in Shots gained on approach, but that is good enough to be the best in the field in this category this week. Fuyrk is number one on tour in greens in regulation at 78.76% and leads the field this week in GIR, and Shots gained on approach.

Be Sure to check out our PGA Core Plays and Derek Hill’s Weekly Podcast “Playing The Tips”

This week for our VIP Members, Be on the look out for our PGA Cash Game Lineup. 

 

PGA Core Plays – WGC Mexico Championship

PGA Core Plays – WGC Mexico Championship
February 20-23, 2020
By Derek Hill

 

 

 

The beloved west coast swing is now behind us and we head south of the border for a week before heading to Florida for the next month. The WGC-Mexico Championship is being hosted at the Club de Golf Chapultepec for the 4th consecutive year. It is a really fun and unique event. A solid field of 72 players will all get 4 rounds to try to bring home the title as there is no cut this week.

The course sits at an elevation of 7,500 feet which brings a lot of added distance to these players who already hit it a mile. This week the course will be playing at 7,345 yards and par 71. The course has smaller than average greens and has trees lining the fairways. That means that ball striking and SG:Tee-to-Green will be important this week. Just for reference, here are some notable players in the field this week who rank in the top 10 in SG:Tee-to-Green. Don’t be surprised to see these names at the top of the leaderboard.

1. McIlroy
2. Schauffele
3. Simpson
4. Matsuyama
5.
6. Thomas
7.
8.
9. Morikawa
10. Garcia

Here are the guys I like this week:

Top-End Pick: Dustin Johnson
$12,000FD/$11,000DK

There’s not much not to like about DJ this week. In the 3 WGC-Mexico Championship events held at Club de Golf Chapultepec he has finished 1st, T7, 1st. His victory last year was completely dominant. Rory had an amazing week and still finished 5 strokes behind DJ. For reference, the 3rd place finishers were 10 shots behind DJ. In his 12 rounds at this course, he has shot 66 or better 5 times. While he hasn’t won so far in 2020, he has 3 top 10s in 4 starts.

Other guys I like:

Justin Thomas: While he missed the cut last week at Riviera, that doesn’t change the fact that he has been playing extremely well. Regardless of how he is playing, his track record at Club de Golf Chapultepec makes him a good pick this week. He holds the course record of 62 which he has shot on 2 separate occasions. He has made 64 birdies in 216 holes. He has finished inside the top-10 in all 3 starts on this course. Ranks 6th in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Rory McIlroy:
Rory is looking to complete his WGC slam by winning the last of 4 WGC events. Last year he led after the first round when he shot a scorching 63. He led the field in birdies. Unfortunately he just made more bogeys (or worse) than DJ. He also had a top 10 here in 2017. Although he faded last Sunday, he still finished in the top 5 for the 5th consecutive start. Ranks 1st in SG: Tee-to-Green.

Others to consider: Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott, Hideki Matsuyama

Mid-Tier Pick: Tommy Fleetwood
$11,000FD/$9200DK

I know he is a bit of an expensive mid-tier pick, but there are a lot of top-end plays with a smaller field and many of the top ranked players in the world. That being the case, I would consider Fleetwood more of an upper Mid-Tier pick rather than a cheap top-end. We haven’t seen him play an official PGA Tour event since the WGC-HSBC Champions event last November. However, he has been playing, and playing well. He has a win, 2 seconds, and a T11 in worldwide competition. He has 3 top-20 finishes at this course including a 2nd place finish in 2017. He has gone low frequently here with 5 of his 12 rounds coming in at 64 or better.

Other mid-tier guys I like:

Sergio Garcia: Garcia has been good here, and has gotten better each year. He finished 12th here in 2017 then followed that up with a 7th and 6th place finish over the next 2 years.

Tyrrell Hatton: Similar to other international players, it has been a while since he has played a tour event. Hatton has a strong track record on this course. He has finished 10th, 3rd, and 19th at this event since it moved to Mexico. 11 of his 12 rounds here have been under par.

Others to Consider: Paul Casey, Louis Oosthuizen, Rafa Cabrera Bello, Colin Morikawa

Value Play: Carlos Ortiz
$8,800FD/$6,600DK

A common pick for me lately largely due to his consistent play. He has only missed 1 cut in his last 10 starts on tour. Not only does he get to play in his native Mexico this week, but the course fits him pretty well as he is a solid player from tee to green. I like his chances in his first appearance at this event.

Other guys I like:

Cameron Smith:
Smith has been a rollercoaster as of late. Had a win in January and followed it up with 2 consecutive missed cuts in February. Has the short game to convert on birdie chances if he is hitting fairways.

Others to consider: Danny Willett, Branden Grace, Kurt Kitayama, Lucas Herbert

 

 

Derek Hill Grew up in rural Utah. Married my his wife, Krista in 2010. Derek and Krista have 2 young daughters. Derek earned an undergrad degree from UVU, a Bachelors of Science in Nursing from Weber State University, and Masters in Nursing Anesthesia from Samford University. Derek

PGA Core Plays – Genesis Open

PGA Core Plays
The Genesis Open
By Derek Hill

 

The Genesis Open

 

The Genesis Invitational has undergone a slight change from years past. It was previously known as the Genesis Open. Starting this year, it took on an invitational format with Tiger Woods acting as host. The field is absolutely loaded and will include 120 players. This will most likely be the most challenging non-major field of the year, and likely has a more difficult field than you see at The Masters. 8 of the top 10 players in the world will be in the field this week including each one of the top 6 players. The talent doesn’t drop off much after these players. There is a long list of big names ready to challenge for the win this week.

Riviera Country Club is a fantastic course. It is a very well-rounded challenge. When looking at the 7,322 yardage for the course, you might think distance is not a factor. When you take a closer look, you’ll see that that is not the case at all. There are 2 very short par-5s as well as a very short par 4. That leaves 7 par 4s that are over 450 yards. You will see a lot of approach shots from outside 170 yards this week. Long hitters will have an advantage this week, but you may also want to consider players who are shorter hitters but have a good long iron game. Don’t dismiss the short game. SG: Around the green will be an important statistic this week as Riviera has some of the toughest greens to hit in regulation. There will be plenty of guys trying to get up and down for par. Putting will be important as well. Don’t be surprised if you see guys marking their ball and getting a read when they’re left with < 3 feet. Riviera has the most missed putts inside 3 feet on tour.

Does it seem like I’ve mentioned just about every aspect of the game as being important this week? That pretty much is the case. That’s why it is known as a well-rounded course and a true test of golf. It requires players to hit every club in their bag as well as forces them to hit every kind of shot possible.

A few hints you may want to look into yourself. Find guys that make eagles at an above average rate. #1 is a short par 5 that concedes more eagles than any other hole on tour. Also, when in doubt, go with a lefty on this course. They have more success here than just about anywhere else.
Here are the guys I like this week:

Top-End Pick: Bubba Watson

Bubba is an obvious pick this week. How can you not go with a guy who has 3 wins here since 2014. He knows the course well enough to have an advantage over most of the rest of the field. That alone will pick him up a few shots on the field. When you take a look at his game, he has a lot that works in his favor this week. He obviously has the distance off the tee, but he also is 3rd in approaches from 175-200 yards which will be a common occurrence this week. It never hurts that he is 14 in SG: putting and 5th in overall putting.

 

Other guys I like:

Justin Thomas: If not for a late meltdown last year, he would be the defending champion at Riviera. If you eliminate his missed cut at the Sony Open in Hawaii early last month, he has just 1 finish outside the top5 in his 6 starts so far this season. That is basically the summary of why he is 1st in the FedEx Cup rankings. If you look at his statistics, he is pretty good across the board with little weakness. Riviera is a course that takes some getting used to and those familiar with it have an advantage. He is starting to feel more comfortable, gradually improving his finishes there since 2016: 54th, 39th, 9th, 2nd.

Tony Finau: Finished 2nd in 2018 and 15th in 2019. While it is early in the season, Finau ranks highly in some relevant categories this week including 7th in SG: around the green and 7th in approaches 175-200 yards. Has finished inside the top 15 in his last 4 starts

Others to consider: Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy

Mid-Tier Pick: JB Holmes

In his last 3 events he has finished: T16, T16, T14. He has missed just 1 cut in 13 appearances at Riviera since 2006. He is very familiar with the course, playing here every year since 2008. He has 5 top-10s and is the defending champion.

 

 

 

Other mid-tier guys I like:
Jason Day: Most of what I said last week about Jason Day applies again this week. His stellar short game plays just about anywhere. It will be important again this week. Jason Day is 1st in SG around the green and 7th in SG: Tee to Green. The biggest disadvantage Day has is his unfamiliarity with the course when compared to other contenders. He missed his first 2 cuts at Riviera in 2010 and 2011 when it hosted the Northern Trust Open. He has made his last 2 cuts there, but last played in this event in 2017.

Jordan Spieth: 2 top-10s and 4 top 25s in 7 tries at Riviera. Coming off of a T9 finish at Pebble Beach. His short game is coming back to him. He ranks 2nd in SG: Around the green.

Others to Consider: Marc Leishman, Charles Howell III, Adam Scott

Value Play: Aaron Baddeley

I can’t remember a time that I liked Baddeley as much as I do for the event this week. He is 14 for 17 in cuts made at Riviera, including a win in 2011. It’s not surprising to see his success here as he currently ranks 3rd in SG: Around the Green. Riviera requires good touch around its small greens. He has played some solid golf over the last few weeks. Coming off a T25 finish at the AT&T Pro-Am.

 

 

Other guys I like:

Carlos Ortiz: 3 for 3 in cuts made at Riviera. Coming off of a 9th place finish last year. Solid player from tee to green including his ability to score well on long par 4s. Players will see plenty of those this week.

Jason Kokrak: Has played at Riviera 8 times and has only missed the cut once. He placed 2nd in 2016 when the Northern Trust was played at Riviera CC. Above average player off the tee and approaching the green.

Others to consider: James Hahn

 

 

Derek Hill Grew up in rural Utah. Married my his wife,  Krista in 2010. Derek and Krista have 2 young daughters. Derek earned an undergrad degree from UVU, a Bachelors of Science in Nursing from Weber State University, and Masters in Nursing Anesthesia from Samford University.  Derek