Hammer Time WK4 (Sunday Edition)

Hammer Time
10/4/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the oddsmakers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 2 Betting Recap:

Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

After a huge Week 2, the Gambling Guru faced some regression in Week 3. I hit on 3 of the 5 Thursday Night props—Myles Gaskin easily hit on both of his props and the Dophins trumped the Jaguars (I told you to fade the ’stache!)—before going 10-15 in the Sunday afternoon slate of games. Several factors contributed to the shortcomings, including Diontae Johnson getting knocked out of his matchup with a concussion and Bucaneers head coach Bruce Arians inexplicably sticking with Ronald Jones over Leonard Fournette. But several players fell just short of their props. Miles Sanders missed his total yards prop by a measly 2.5 yards—adding extra justification for my screaming at the television as the Eagles passed and then punted for the tie at the end of the game instead of running the ball to get in better field goal range. Austin Ekeler and Kenyan Drake also narrowly missed their rushing yard props, though the former crushed his passing and total yardage prop. The Bears-Falcons game in particular was brutal as all four of my bets fell short. I was saved from a disastrous day by a huuuge performance by Alvin Kamara in the night cap. Kamara hit both of his props, as well as the first TD scorer bet—his second time this season already (shameless brag: he also propelled me to a comeback victory in fantasy with 44+ points).

Arizona Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake

Week 3 Record: 15-18 (45%)

Let’s see if we can recover here in Week 4, starting with some TNF props…

TNF Player Props and Bets: DEN @ NYJ

· Melvin Gordon over 60.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Noah Fant over 43.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
· Jerry Jeudy over 50.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
· K.J. Hamler over 33.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Melvin Gordon to score the first TD (+500 at DraftKings)*
Just when we thought the Thursday Night games couldn’t get any uglier, the NFL unloads a battle of basement dwellers on us as the talentless New York Jets play host to the hapless Denver Broncos. The Jets, indefinitely hindered by the Adam Gase Effect and plagued with injuries at the skilled positions, offer little in terms of player prop value. The options on the other side are just as unappetizing, as third-string quarterback Brett Rypien will be getting the start for the Broncos. Still, what kind of Gambling Guru would I be if I sat this one out? Unlike these teams, I have heart, so I’ve dug deep for these sleeper picks.

First, the chalk. Through 3 games this season, Melvin Gordon has 42 rushing attempts and 174 yards. That averages out to 58 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Gordon was notably limited last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, getting only 8 touches in the ground game. Poor game script aside, I suspect that’s because head coach Vic Fangio wanted to keep him fresh for tonight’s game since they’ll be playing on a short week. The Jets defense is quite possibly the worst in the league and this is Rypien’s first official start, so all things point to Denver pounding the rock. If Gordon gets a workload closer to the first two games of the season, he should have at least 15 carries. That puts him on track for at least 62 yards so I’m hammering the over there. I’ll also pick him to score the game’s first touchdown, simply because there are no better options.

I’m also going in on Noah Fant’s yardage prop. he’s eclipsed this in each game so far this year, with 81, 57, and 46 yards. The yardage is trending in the wrong direction, but I’m confident he’ll pull through as Rypien’s security blanket. I’ll also take the over on Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler’s receiving yards as yards should be easy to come by against this Jets secondary.

Sunday Spreads and Player Props:
SEA @ MIA:

Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

· Myles Gaskin over 3.5 receptions (-112 at Bet MGM)
· Myles Gaskin over 24.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· DeVante Parker over 4.5 receptions (-105 at DraftKings)
· DeVante Parker over 61.5 receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel)
· Tyler Lockett over 72.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Tyler Lockett over 5.5 receptions (+105 at Bet MGM)
· DK Metcalf over 67.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
Tyler Locket has averaged 8 receptions for over 85 yards per game so far this season and D.K. Metcalf has averaged about 100 yards per game. Look for more of the same against a weak Miami secondary this Sunday. Hammer the over on all three of these mispriced lines. On the flip side, Seattle has been the second worst team against the pass so far. That makes DeVante Parker a solid bet to go over his reception and receiving yards prop. Parker eclipsed both numbers last week against the Jaguars, in spite of a negative game script, and came within 15 yards of the receiving prop in the first two games against the elite corners on the Bills and Patriots. Myles Gaskin, who is averaging 30 yards on 5 receptions per game, will continue to get work on passing downs, as they’ll be playing from behind in this one.

N.O. @ DET:

New Orleans Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith

· Alvin Kamara over 7.5 receptions (+123 at DraftKings)
· Alvin Kamara over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Kenny Golladay over 60.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
No surprises here. My love affair with Alvin Kamara continues as I project him to go over 59.5 receiving yards and total 8 or more receptions. It’s a steep number, but he absolutely crushed it last week in a shootout with the Packers. Michael Thomas has been already been ruled out for a third straight week, so the “Drew Brees Checkdown Show” starring Alvin Kamara will continue. For Detroit, I like Golladay to flash in his second start, especially since both starting corners for the Saints are out. Hammer all three of these props.

CLE @ DAL:

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot

· CeeDee Lamb over 61.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Michael Gallup over 57.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
The Cleveland Browns have been one of the worst teams against slot receivers. That bodes well for stud rookie CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging over 75 yards and no fewer than 59 yards through three games this year. I also like Michael Gallup to go over his receiving yards prop. He’s had fewer receptions than Lamb, but his average yards per reception has been much higher in each game this season at 16.67, 29, and 23. Gallup and Prescott have also come close to hooking up on several other 40+ passes this year—it’s clear that he is the go-to deep target. I found the best line (both in terms of lowest threshold and lowest juice) at DraftKings so shop around. *hammer* *hammer*

ARI @ CAR:

Carolina Panther RB Mike Davis

· Kenyan Drake over 70.5 rushing yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
· ***BEST BET*** Mike Davis over 5.5 receptions (+117 at DraftKings)
· Mike Davis over 39.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
Kenyan Drake has been disappointing so far this season. But this week? We love the Drake. To quote Seinfeld: “How can you not like the Drake?”

We’ve seen him go off in the past—I can attest to that from a painful personal experience in the second half of my Fantasy Championship last year—and this is a great blowup spot. The Carolina Panthers have the worst run defense in the league and have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Drop. The. Hammer.
For the Panthers, I am banking on Mike Davis continuing to be a PPR machine in the absence of Christian McCaffrey. I think he tops his receiving yards prop easily as the Panthers should be playing from behind in this game. Davis had 8 receptions in each of his two starts this year, so I’m shocked that his line is only 5.5 receptions at DraftKings and even more shocked that it’s being offered at plus money. That’s a huge oversight by Vegas. Make them pay. I’m laying down the hammer like Thor.

BUF @ LVR:

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary

· Josh Jacobs over 72.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Darren Waller over 5.5 receptions (+105 at Bet MGM)
· Devin Singletary over 77.5 total yards (-124 at DraftKings)
· Devin Singletary over 58.5 rushing yards (-112 at FanDuel)
Devin Singletary made the most of his 17 touches last week accounting for over 125 of Buffalo’s yards on offense. Zack Moss is questionable to return from his toe injury, after getting limited sessions in practice this week. Look for head coach Sean McDermott to stick with the hot hand. Bill Belichick always schemes a way to control the opponent’s best player, so it was no surprise he targeted Darren Waller in last week’s matchup. Waller will bounce back from his abysmal performance in a big way today. He has to if the Raiders are going to stay in this game. Josh Jacobs will also be a key to a Raiders victory and slowing down a red-hot Josh Allen. I don’t think they will, but I do think they nail these props.

BAL @ WAS

Baltimore Ravens rookie RB J.K. Dobbins

· BAL -12.5 (+110 Odds Boost at FanDuel)
Baltimore’s offense is too unpredictable to find any juicy props here and Washington—well, they are a professional football team… but one without a name or talent. Lamar Jackson has heard the talk and will look to disprove the “haters” with a 2019-esque MVP performance. FanDuel is going to regret this Odds Boost promo. Hammer it.

Parlay Play of the Week:

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson

4-team money line parlay: SEA, NO, LAR, and BAL (+171 at DraftKings)*
There’s not much analysis to offer on this one. The Ravens and Rams should run away in their respective games and, on paper, the Seahawks and Saints should have their way as well. If you want to be ballsy, you can take NO -3 and SEA -5 instead of the money lines or look for an alternate game line for Baltimore and Los Angeles for a higher payout. It all depends on your level of risk aversion.

That’s all for now. Follow me at https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and Check back next week for more best bets and player props.

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 3 is 47-43, hitting on 52% of his bets. Additionally, he is 3-2-1 on first TD scorer calls.

*First TD scorer and Parlay Plays are not counted in overall standings.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

 

Hammer Time wk3 (Sunday Edition)

Hammer Time
9/27/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 2 Betting Recap:
Wow. What a huge week for the Gambling Guru (and you, if you’ve been following my best bets and player props). First, the Nick Chubb to score the 1st TD prop (+400 at DraftKings and +650 on FanDuel) hit on Thursday night. That was a nice payout, especially if you did the max $20 for the DraftKings promo or took advantage of the higher odds on FanDuel. The Chubb over 71.5 rushing yards also smashed. The Joe Burrow over 23.5 rushing yards narrowly missed—at one point in the game he actually had it before taking a loss on a subsequent play—and the Same Game Parlay missed one leg because the total points went over. That provided a profitable 2-3 start to the weekend.

On Sunday, my best bets were split down the middle, but injuries to Saquon Barkley, Parris Campbell were partly to blame. Green Bay and San Francisco easily covered, while Kansas City avoided an upset and Tennessee pushed in the teaser. But we also learned just how bad Minnesota and Philadelphia are this year; the Vikings and Eagles are officially on the list of teams I can’t trust. Miami got a backdoor cover against Buffalo that I’m going to chalk up to a combination of Ryan Fitz“magic” and the game delay caused by the wild weather. However you slice it, it’s a lackluster 11-12 performance in the main slate.

The Monday night game was the big winner, however, as almost all of my player props hit. Alvin Kamara scored the first touchdown (+550 at DraftKings) then scored a second time (+600 at FanDuel). If you bet both props and Kamara to score at any time (a mis-priced -105 at FanDuel), you had a big day. Kamara also crushed his over 4.5 receptions, 37.5 receiving yards, and 90.5 total yards props. Likewise, Josh Jacobs hit the over on 2.5 receptions, 68.5 rushing yards, and 85.5 total yards. He failed to find the end zone and narrowly missed his over 17.5 receiving yards line with 17 yards, which killed 3 props. Still, that’s a dominant 9-3 finish to the Week 2.

Week 2 Record: 22-18 (55%)

Let’s see if we can keep it going for Week 3, starting with some TNF props…

TNF Player Props and Bets: MIA @ JAX
· Myles Gaskin over 16.5 receiving yards (-122 at FanDuel)
· Myles Gaskin over 2.5 receptions (-148 at DraftKings)
· Mike Gesicki over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Over 48.5 total points (-110 at DraftKings)
· MIA +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Minshew Mania may be in full effect, but Jacksonville’s defense is still a bottom feeder. So far this season, running backs have gashed the Jaguars when catching balls out of the backfield. Myles Gaskin has been impressive thus far as the surprise starter in Miami, so I expect that to continue tonight. Sure, there’s always a slim chance that receiving back specialist Matt Brieda steals the show, I’m confident coach Brian Flores will ride the hot hand. I think Gaskin goes over 2 receptions and smashes the receiving yards line (I’d even bet it up to 20 yards if the line continues to move). I also love Mike Gesicki to hit on his 49.5 receiving yards prop. Through two games, the Dolphins young tight end has been targeted 16 times, logging 160 yards on 11 receptions. DeVante Parker was removed from the injury report Wednesday, but playing on a short week after fighting through a hamstring injury only boosts the odds for Gesicki to be the focal point of this passing attack led by Fitz“magic”. I anticipate a high-scoring, messy affair. I’ll take the points with the Dolphins simply because I believe in the coaching staff. Fear the beard, fade the ’stache, and hammer these bets.

Sunday Spreads and Player Props:

Cincinnati Bengal’s RB Joe Mixon

CIN @ PHI:
· ***BEST BET*** Miles Sanders over 109.5 total yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· DeSean Jackson over 55.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Joe Mixon under 65.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· PHI -4.5 (+105 at FanDuel)
To quote the great Marshawn Lynch, “you know why I’m here.” I’m taking my Birds to cover 4.5 points and defeat the Bengal’s for the first time in 20 years (yes, seriously). I’ve been wrong on a lot of my Eagles picks this year, but that can only mean I’m due for a hot streak. Right? There is no such thing as a must-win in Week 3 but if Philadelphia can’t come away with a win against Cincinnati, the season is lost. Luckily, when Wentz’s back is against the wall, he responds. And right now, not only is his back pressed up against the wall, but a large Philadelphian mob is waiting on the other side with pitchforks and torches. In terms of player props, I’m sticking with Miles Sanders this week and fading the lead back on the other side. The offensive and defensive lines for the Bengal’s are among the worst in the league. That bodes well for Sanders, who I think easily surpasses the total yards mark, and poorly for Joe Mixon, who I think will run the rock less than 15 times. I’ll fade the DeSean Jackson touchdown prop this week (fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice… you’re off the best bets), but I will take the over on his yardage prop since Jalen Reagor is out.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

LV @ NE:
· Josh Jacobs over 2.5 receptions (-110 at Bet MGM)
· Josh Jacobs over 15.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
· NE -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Bill Belichick always tries to take away the opponent’s best weapon. You could argue that Josh Jacobs is said player, but recent bias would make a strong case for Darren Waller. Either way, I like Jacobs as a reliable check down option. He’s embraced the extra work in the passing game and should get 3 catches easily and just over 5 yards per reception is a reasonable ask. I also think the Patriots will come prepared after the heartbreak in Seattle last week. Meanwhile, the Raiders are primed for a letdown after their upset win in their stadium’s inaugural game.

Atlanta Falcons WR Calvin Ridley

CHI @ ATL:
· David Montgomery over 14.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· David Montgomery over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Calvin Ridley to score (-112 at DraftKings)
· Atlanta -3 (-104 at DraftKings)
Fact: The Atlanta Falcons have had the worst secondary this season. This should be a get-right game for Mitch Trubisky, which will buy him at least one more week before he’s supplanted by Nick Foles, and Allen Robinson, who has been dragging down fantasy teams this season. That being said, the lines are rather chalky. I see more value on the lines for David Montgomery, who has been Chicago’s lone bright spot thus far. On the other side, I have Ridley scoring yet another touchdown this week (I just can’t quit him) but am not touching the inflated line Vegas has posted. The Bears are undefeated, but their victories came against the lowly Lions and the Barkley-less Giants. “Matty Ice” may be too hot to handle.

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary

LAR @ BUF:
· Devin Singletary over 60.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
The Rams-Bills game is one of several great match-ups in Week 3. I’m leaning towards Buffalo, but not enough to make a call here. My favorite prop here is Devin Singletary to go over the rushing yards. Zack Moss will not play so Singletary will have the backfield all to himself. Well, unless T.J. Yeldon gets some carries. He won’t. Hammer the over.

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson

HOU @ PIT:
· Diontae Johnson over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
This one is another tough matchup. It’s hard to imagine Houston starting the season 0-3, but no one would fault them given their brutal opening schedule. Maybe a loss would put Bill O’Brian on the hot seat (probably not, but Texans fans can dream). The under on the rushing props for James Connor and David Johnson are enticing, but I am avoiding the unpredictable nightmare. Nothing else really stands out, except rising star Diontae Johnson. JuJu Smith-Schuster should draw the Texans top corner, which could mean Johnson gets loose. I’ll take the over 61.5 receiving yards while I still can.

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry

TEN @ MIN:
· Jonnu Smith over 41.5 receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel)
· TEN -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
I’ve already written off Minnesota this season. The defense is a far cry from what it was just a few seasons ago. The secondary in particular is atrocious, which is great news for Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. I prefer the latter—partly because the loss of Anthony Barr should help up the middle of the field for Smith and partly because I find it hard to trust Corey Davis to be consistent. Even if Tannehill throws for just 150 yards, Smith should smash this line. I’m also looking for the Titans to smash the Vikings and cover the 3. *hammering sounds*

Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

CAR @ LAC:
· ***BEST BET*** Austin Ekeler over 89.5 total yards (-109 at DraftKings)
· Austin Ekeler over 60.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Austin Ekeler over 26.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Another best bet? That’s right! I’m all in on Austin Ekeler this week. The Panthers had the worst run defense last year (which probably prompted them to go entirely defensive in the draft) and not much has changed. Joshua Kelley will eat into his carries and may vulture a touchdown, but there will be plenty of yards to go around. Give me the over on Ekeler’s rushing yards. Give me the over on Ekeler’s receiving yards. Give me the over on Ekeler’s total yards. Hammer, hammer, hammer!

Colts rookie RB Jonathan Taylor

NYJ @ IND:
· ***BEST BET*** Jonathan Taylor over 77.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
Surprise! A third best bet! The Jets could barely be called a professional football team when the season started, let alone now when they are crippled at the skilled positions. Who is Sam Darnold going to throw to? Can the ghost of Frank Gore do anything on the ground? The Colts will take a commanding lead and then it’s J.T. time. He may even double this line.

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson

DAL @ SEA:
· Chris Carson over 20.5 receiving yards (+106 at FanDuel)
There are a lot of juicy options in this game, especially given how Seattle’s secondary has played through two weeks. Unfortunately, Vegas has put up some chalky lines for Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and rookie CeeDee Lamb. I do like D.K. Metcalf now that the Seahawks are finally letting Russ cook, but my favorite bet here is on Chris Carson. He doesn’t scream “pass-catcher” but the bruising running back has put up huge numbers as a receiver so far this year. Vegas is asleep behind the wheel here with this line of 20.5 yards. Hammer the over.

Arizona RB Kenyan Drake

DET @ ARI:
· Kenyan Drake over 77.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
I see Arizona running away with this one. Literally. It’s a high number, but Kenyan Drake is due for a big game and this may just be it. I love “the Drake” this week.

TB @ DEN:
· Noah Fant over 3.5 receptions (-139 at Bet MGM)
· Leonard Fournette over 51.5 rushing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
· TB -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Denver Broncos have been decimated by injuries. Drew Lock and Courtland Sutton are out, and rookie Jerry Jeudy is a game-time decision. Hammer that 3.5 receptions. Tampa Bay has a stiff run defense, so I think Melvin Gordon will not be able to carry the load. That just leaves just Noah Fant as the safety blanket for backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Leonard Fournette, on the other hand, showed he could carry the load last week after Ronald Jones was benched following a fumble. Even if Lenny doesn’t get the start this week, he’ll take over at some point. He’ll crush this number as the Buccaneers sit on the ball and run out the clock. Hammer it.

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara

SNF Player Props and Bets: GB @ NO
· Alvin Kamara over 5.5 receptions (-139 at Bet MGM)
· Alvin Kamara to score (-167 at DraftKings)
· NO money line (-175 at DraftKings)
Can we postpone this game until both Michael Thomas and Davante Adams are healthy? Even without these stars, the game should be a fun one. Without knowing the status of Adams, it’s hard to pick a prop confidently for Green Bay. On the New Orleans side of things, I’ll stick with my new favorite running back (he won me quite a bit of money and has been clutch in fantasy), Alvin Kamara. He’s been the focal point of this offense in the absence of Michael Thomas. I like him over the receptions and think he’ll reach the endzone yet again. This game would be a pick ’em on a neutral site so it will be close. I’m leaning Saints if Adams sits, but that may just be because I don’t have any Packers on my fantasy teams.

 

MNF Player Props and Bets: KC @ BAL:
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score (+105 at Bet MGM)
· KC money line (+148 at FanDuel)
I can’t remember the last time we had such a big Monday Night Football match-up. I’m hesitant to fade this game entirely and just enjoy the fireworks, but I’ll make a couple of picks for my fellow gambling degenerates. I understand why Baltimore is a home favorite and that they match up well here, but I can’t pass up on the opportunity to bet the money line on Super Bowl LIV MVP and future Hall of Fame Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. I also love the mis-priced odds for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score at Bet MGM (another teachable moment—always shop around! This line was almost -200 at FanDuel and DraftKings).

Parlay Play of the Week:
· IND/TB/SEA all to win (+185 Odds Boost at DraftKings)

That’s all for now. Follow me at https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and Check back next week for more best bets and player props.

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 3 is 32-25, hitting on 56% of his bets.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Or on Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Hammer Time (NFL wk2)

Hammer Time (NFL wk2)
9/18/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the oddsmakers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note from the editor. As the season starts to pick back up so will our DFS play and our prop bets. Play safe and have fun! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Week 1 Betting Recap:
We started off hot last week, hitting on 4 of 5 Thursday Night Football bets but then a few upsets ruined our Sunday picks. Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t score first in the season opener as we’d hoped, but he did find the endzone eventually. The Chiefs covered the -9.5 spread (as if there was any doubt) and propelled the game over the alternate line of 49.5 points to help us hit on a same game parlay. Will Fuller was one of the few bright spots for the Texans, finishing with well over the 63.5 receiving yards prop he pegged him for.

On Sunday, the Bears squeaked out a victory with a late comeback and an ugly drop by Lions rookie running back De’Andre Swift. The Packers handled the Vikings easily, courtesy of Aaron Rodgers, who channeled his 2011 self and exposed Minnesota’s leaky secondary. Rodgers finished the day with a whopping stat line: 364 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 72.7% completion percentage. The Seahawks did indeed “let Russ cook,” and the result was a spectacular cover of the -2.5 spread in a high-scoring affair against the Falcons. In hindsight, this should have been marked as the best bet for Week 1. Atlanta’s offense is high-powered, but their defense is still abysmal, so I’m not sure why so much money was coming in on them.

On the player prop side, we only hit on 2 of 7 bets, but were close on most of the ones we missed. Josh Jacobs had a field day, as predicted, and easily went over his 77.5 rushing yards prop. Diggs did indeed feed on the Jets weak secondary, surpassing his 51.5 receiving yards prop. Todd Gurley just missed his 57.5 rushing yards prop and Aaron Jones did not find the endzone. That shouldn’t come as a surprise though, given the stats that the passing game put up in both affairs. In the night cap, Jared Goff also fell several yards short of his 285.5 passing yards line.

Now, for our biggest busts of the week: DeSean Jackson and the Indianapolis Colts.

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson

Jackson was on a limited snap count during the game, but coach Pederson assured the media his snaps would increase each week—that would have been nice to know ahead of time. At any rate, the Washington Football Team kept Jackson locked down. Credit to Washington’s defense for penetrating the Eagles decimated offensive line and to their offense for scoring 27 unanswered points in the franchise’s biggest comeback since 1955. Last, but not least, we had the major upset of the week: the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars triumphed over Philip Rivers d the Indianapolis Colts. Is Minshew Mania real? We’ll find out in the coming weeks, but this was an ugly gambling casualty in week 1. Hopefully, not everyone went as all in as I did on the Colts.

Overall, we finished with an admirable 10-7 record for week 1. Hey, 59% ain’t too shabby. Let’s see how we fare in week 2!

Spreads:
· MIN +3 (+121 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): Both of these teams will be looking to make a statement after being embarrassed last week. I know that I trashed Minnesota’s secondary earlier, but Rivers is past his prime and Indianapolis has a subpar pass attack at best. The Colts could barely muster 20 points against the worst team in the NFL last week. So I will take the points with the better team. Hammer the Vikings. Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).

Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook

· GB -6 (+113 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): I was admittedly low on Green Bay coming into the season—they benefited last season from a weak schedule and won a handful of games by one score. But Rodgers is disgruntled (and who can blame him) after the bizarre draft decisions the front office made, and that appears to have lit a fire under him. He went wild in week 1, proving he’s still elite. I think that continues in week 2 against the swiss cheese secondary in Detroit. 6 points is too small of a handicap, so I’ll take the Packers over the Lions. Go Pack, Go! Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).

Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones

· BUF -5.5 (+114 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): I really like Brian Flores, but the Dolphins are still in rebuilding mode and the Bills see an opportunity to remain undefeated and start the season 2-0 in a division that’s been dominated by New England for the last two decades. Miami only put up 11 points against the Patriots defense last week and they’ll have a tougher ask against Buffalo. Give me the Bills as an under-a-touchdown favorite.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

· PHI +3 (-119 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo on the adjusted line): My beloved birds betrayed me last week, but the starting line for this is a huge overcorrection. Miles Sanders, Lane Johnson, and Derek Barnett are back, so I’ll hammer the homer pick.

Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders

· SF -6 (-104 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo on the adjusted line): San Francisco is eager to erase the memory of their ugly loss last week and prove that there is no such thing as a Super Bowl hangover. They’ll bounce back this week in a big way against New York’s “offensive genius” Adam Gase.

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Teasers/Parlays:
· TEN -3 / KC -2.5 teaser (-132 at DraftKings): I refuse to buy in on the Jaguars and I think the Titans are still being underappreciated on the market. Kansas City is also far and away better than the team rebuilding in Los Angeles. My only concern about these spreads is a backdoor cover, so let’s erase that by taking the two together in a 6-point teaser. You might also consider a money line parlay at worse odds (-162) if you want to play it extra safe. I’m confident enough to go with the bigger payout. Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).

Tennessee Titan QB Ryan Tannehill

Noteworthy sports-book promos this week for existing users:
· DraftKings Profit Bonus: 25% profit bonus on every week 2 game. This boost applies to player props as well, but you can only use the boost once so choose wisely. See the DraftKings Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· DraftKings 1st TD Scorer Promo: Bet on the first TD scorer and if your bet doesn’t hit but the player scores at any time in the game win your wager back. See the DraftKings Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· FanDuel Same Game Parlay $10 Credit: Place a $20+ same game parlay of 3+ legs with minimum +200 final odds and get a free $10 site credit. See the FanDuel Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· FanDuel 35+ Point Profit Bonus: Place a pre-game $50 money line wager on any team and if your team scores 35+ points, win double the winnings. See the FanDuel Sportsbook app for details and full terms.

That’s all for now. Check back this weekend for more player props on Sunday’s games!

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season so far is 10-7, hitting on 59% of his bets.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time (NFL Betting)

Hammer Time
9/8/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Quick note from the editor. In the past I’ve found complete transparency to the reader to be the best course of action. Pulling the curtain aside a moment, Anthony reached out and inquired about getting his NFL betting content published and seen! We were happy to oblige here at Cheat Sheet! Thank you Anthony and we look forward to long prosperous NFL season together.

Welcome to the first DFSCheatSheet edition of Hammer Time! Each week, I’ll share my best bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning money on football. Today, we’ll be looking at some of my favorite season-long bets, including team win totals, team futures, and player props. Before we dive in, let me offer a few pieces of general sports betting advice….

Tip #1: Look for value, not chalk. You’re going to be tempted to bet the house on that BAL or KC over 11.5 wins. Don’t. That doesn’t mean that I don’t expect the Ravens or Chiefs to get to 12 wins. But there’s simply very little value to be found here. The odds makers know everyone loves Patty Mahomes, the new half-billion-dollar face of the NFL, and Lamar “action” Jackson. They’ll use their popularity to lure you into making high risk, low reward bets. Don’t take the bait. God forbid Mahomes catches COVID-19 and is forced to quarantine or Jackson (*knocks on wood*) suffers a torn ACL. Anything can happen—especially in these uncertain times.

Tip #2: There’s no such thing as being injury-prone… but players can be prone to injuries. Medical experts agree there is no evidence to suggest that one player is more likely to get injured than another. Despite this, it seems as though some can’t stay out of the blue medical tent. Translation: be wary of any player with an injury history. Also, stay away from bets on players with specific injury histories (think Todd Gurley’s arthritic knees), as those injuries are more likely to re-occur.

Tip #3: Shop around. Legalized gambling in many states has given rise to several competing sports books. Take advantage of any promotions, odds boosts, and line discrepancies.

Tip #4: Less is more. They say “the house always wins” for a reason. The odds makers setting the lines are experts. Never bet an amount of money that makes you uneasy. A good rule is to bet half of what you’re willing to lose. It’s better to win less than to lose more!

Now with that out of the way, let’s dig in these best bets!

Best Bets: Win Totals

JAC under 5 (-118)

Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars are a far cry from the 2017 squad that almost won the AFC Championship. You might even say they’ve even supplanted the Miami Dolphins as the textbook definition of “tanking.” The mishandling of contracts and personnel—see the Jalen Ramsey trade, the ugly Twitter exchange between executive Tony Khan and former DL Yannick Ngakoue, and the cutting of Leonard Fournette—reveals just how toxic the culture has become in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC South has become increasingly competitive: the Houston Texans remain the division favorite despite the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and the Tennessee Titans will remain serious contenders after their deep postseason run last season. In Indianapolis, gunslinger Philip Rivers hopes to find the Fountain of Youth behind the best line in the league. Would it really surprise anyone if the Jags went winless in their own division? The Jaguars also face the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengal’s, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, and Chicago Bears. I’m in on Minshew Mania, but no mullet or mustache—no matter how glorious—can muster 5 wins with this roster and schedule. HAMMER the under.

WAS under 5 (+100)

Washington Football Team

From workplace misconduct scandals to controversy over the club’s former nickname, there has been a lot of ugliness surrounding the Washington franchise this off-season. The club plays the Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengal’s, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Carolina Panthers this season. That’s in addition to the Philadelphia Eagles, the reigning NFC East division champs, the Dallas Cowboys, a potential Super Bowl sleeper, and the New York Giants, who always seem to have Washington’s number. “Riverboat” Ron Rivera was an excellent hire, but it takes time to right a ship—especially one that’s capsized.

CIN under 6 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals

It may surprise you to learn that despite having the #1 overall pick this off-season, the Cincinnati Bengal’s are not devoid of talent. Joe Burrow is rookie quarterback but he’s coming off the best statistical season in NCAA history and he has a deep group of receivers plus Joe Mixon, who Bill Belichick believes to be the best running back in the league. Unfortunately, the Bengal’s are also in one of the most competitive division in the NFL, playing the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns twice. Outside the division, they face the Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Washington Football Team, New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, and Houston Texans. That’s a big ask of a rookie quarterback in a challenging off-season. They have a shot against several fellow basement dwellers but good luck finding 6 wins. So, it’s Hammer Time.

TEN over 8.5 (-110)

Tennessee Titans

The Titans playoff run (pun intended) only ended because not even Derrick Henry could keep future Hall of Fame quarterback Patrick Mahomes off the field long enough in the AFC Championship game. Their non-division schedule looks like this: Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengal’s, Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, and Green Back Packers. A split with the Colts and Texans and a sweep of the Jaguars would put them at 4-2, just about halfway to their win total. The Bengal’s and Lions should push them to 6, leaving just 3 more wins. I think they get them. I’d also consider betting them to win the division outright depending on the juice.

Best Bets: Win Totals

PIT to Make Playoffs (-134)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger underwent season-ending surgery last year to reattach three torn flexor tendons in his right elbow. Not only is he healthy, but the pain he’s apparently been playing through his entire career has dissipated. Juju Smith-Schuster, James Connor, rising star Diontae Johnson, and the rest of the offense will benefit from his return. The Steelers, led by the tandem of “Duck” Hodges and Mason Rudolph, would have made the playoffs last season under the new format. Let that sink in for a moment… and then head to your preferred sports book app to bet big on Big Ben leading the Steelers back to the playoffs.

SEA to Make the Playoffs (-128)

Seattle Seahawks

Under head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, the Seattle Seahawks have had double-digit winning records in 7 of the last 8 years. Last season, they were a yard away from claiming a top seed in the NFC playoffs when they lose a thriller to their rivals and eventual NFC Super Bowl representatives, the San Francisco 49ers. The NFC West is as competitive as any other division in the NFL today, but it’s difficult to ignore that kind of sustained success. With the new payoff format allowing a 7th team into the postseason, it’s easy to imagine that the trend will continue. You might also want to consider sprinkling some money on the Seahawks over 9 wins. Shop around for the best odds.

Best Bets: Player Prop Futures

Miles Sanders over 1,005.5 rushing yards (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders got off to a rough start in his rookie campaign last year. He failed to see the holes and was outplayed by Jordan Howard early on. But somewhere along the way, everything clicked. He has the potential to be a top-5 RB this year. Skeptical? Look at his fantasy points in the last 8 games. Head coach Doug Pederson has had a tendency to use the dreaded running back by committee approach, but he has never had a back this talented before. Everyone has been gushing about Sanders been crushing it in camp. I think he also crushes this 1,005.5 rushing yard mark, which is not even 200 yards more than his final numbers last season.

Baker Mayfield over 23.5 passing TDs (-112)

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield

The Cleveland Browns have been under-the-radar this off-season after a disappointing campaign in 2019 under former head coach Freddie Kitchens. But rest assured, this team will be better than it was last year, and I have no doubt that a humbled Baker is eager to prove his arm is better than his acting. Throwing 24 touchdowns really isn’t a lot to ask when you consider the weapons he will be working with: Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, and Austin Hooper. Compound that talent with the addition of new head coach Kevin Stefanski and I think Baker will get at least 2 more than last year (22). Hammer, hammer, hammer.

Sam Darnold over 22.5 passing TDs (-108)

New York Jets QB Sam Darnold

Far be it from me to heap praise on anyone playing for Adam Gase, aka the fantasy dream-killer, but Sam Darnold threw 19 touchdown passes while playing in just 13 games in 2019. This is a make or break year for the former 1st round pick. If he makes even a slight improvement in his development and stays healthy, he should surpass his numbers from last season. Hey, you can’t catch mononucleosis twice, right?

Carson Wentz over 3,899.5 passing yards (-112)

Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz

Call me an Eagles homer, but I love Carson Wentz over 3,899.5 passing yards (-112). He threw for over 4,000 yards last season despite not having a single receiver over 400 yards and should have more explosive weapons this year with rookie Jalen Reagor and a healthy DeSean Jackson in his arsenal this year. His desire to get that extra yard on every play puts him at a higher risk of injury, making this a dodgy play but there’s too much upside here. And so we hammer.

Check back throughout the season for more best bets!

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1