Hammer Time WK8
Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! After going 3-3 on player props and picks, 1-1 on parlay plays, and 1-1 on first TD scorer bets in Week 6, my cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 7 is as follows:
· Player Props and Game Picks: 75-79, hitting on 49% of bets
· Parlay Plays: 4-3
· First TD Scorer Bets: 4-5-4*
*“Ties” indicate player scored later in the game (winning wager back with DraftKings Primetime 1st TD Scorer Promo)
Lots of action to get to today nut let’s begin with a quick recap of the Thursday night game.
TNF Player Props and Bets:
NYG @ PHI: 5-5
· PHI -2.5 (lost)
· Over 44.5 total (lost)
· Devonta Freeman under 54.5 rushing yards (won)
· Daniel Jones over 20 rushing yards (won)
· Carson Wentz over 15 rushing yards (lost)
· DeSean Jackson over 34.5 receiving yards (lost)
· Boston Scott over 39.5 rushing yards (won)
· Travis Fulgham over 4 receptions (won)
· Travis Fulgham over 44.5 receiving yards (won)
· Travis Fulgham to score (lost)
The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New York Giants by a single point in an ugly divisional game Thursday night. It was perhaps the most frustrating win I’ve ever witnessed as an Eagles fan. Jake Elliot missed a 29-yard chip shot field goal and the Eagles failed to convert on a 2-point conversion late in the 4th quarter, which busted both the spread and over total points bets. Carson Wentz and DeSean Jackson both fell 1 yard shy of their player props as well. The Eagles (2-4-1) laughably sit atop the historically bad NFC East heading into Sunday of Week 7.
But enough wallowing in self-pity. It’s time to drop the hammer on these best bets and win some money. LET’S GOOO!
Sunday Spreads and Player Props:
DAL @ WAS:
· Terry McLaurin over 72.5 receiving yards (-165 at DraftKings)
“Scary” Terry McLaurin is averaging over 80 yards per game this season and over 13 yards per reception. Meanwhile, the maligned secondary of the Dallas Cowboys is giving up over 160 yards to receivers per week and over 100 yards to the opposing team’s top target. This may be my favorite bet of the week. Hand me Thor’s hammer, please.
BUF @ NYJ
· BUF -10 (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Stefan Diggs over 75.5 receiving yards (-155 at DraftKings; over 78.5 -110 at FanDuel)
· Cole Beasley over 56.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
The New York Jets are far and away the worst team in the NFL. The last time these two teams met in Week 1, the New York’s secondary gave up a combined 214 yards to Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley. Brown has been ruled out for the grudge match, giving a boost to the other two’s projections. Diggs enters the game averaging over 90 yards per game and went over this line last time with 86 yards. Beasley has flown under the radar with 60 yards per game and put up 56 in Week 1. The only way these two don’t smash is if the Buffalo Bills get such a big early lead that they pull their starters or salt the game with the run.
CAR @ NO
· Alvin Kamara receptions over 5.5 receptions (-125 at Bet MGM)
· Alvin Kamara over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
Michael Thomas was aiming for a Week 5 return from his high ankle sprain but missed that game due to disciplinary actions. He was fully recovered coming out of the Saints Week 6 BYE, but then pulled a hamstring. He’ll now miss his fifth straight game, keeping Alvin Kamara positioned as the focal point of the Saints offense. Their opponent, the Carolina Panthers, have given up the 4th most fantasy points to the running back position this season. It’s a perfect storm. Hammer the over.
GB @ HOU
· GB -3 (boosted to -110 at DraftKings)
· Aaron Jones or Jamal Williams over rushing yards (not available at the time of this writing)
The Houston Texans have arguably the worst rush defense in the league this season, giving up an average of 157.5 yards per game and four 100-yard rushers. Last week they were trampled under Derrick Henry, who galloped for 212 yards. Aaron Jones will feast—if he plays. If he doesn’t, his carries will shift to Jamaal Williams with rookie A.J. Dillon feasting on the scraps in a larger-than-usual role.
CLE @ CIN
· Kareem Hunt over 86.5 rushing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
Cincinnati’s defense is giving up an average of just over 100 rushing yards per game this season—middle of the pack. However, the maligned defensive line of the Bengals gave up over 200 yards in their first game against the Browns. Vegas has set this player prop right where Hunt finished in that contest with 86 yards, but he was playing second fiddle to Nick Chubb, who chalked up over 120 yards as Cleveland’s primary back. With Chubb still on injured reserve, Hunt should smash.
DET @ ATL
· Kenny Golladay over 74.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
You know the drill here. We hammer receivers facing Atlanta’s abysmal secondary. The Falcons are giving up 188.5 yards per game to wideouts and 8 receivers have gone over this line this year. Kenny Golladay has only started three games this season, but he’s clearly Matthew Stafford’s top target. He’s racked up 57, 62, and 105 yards on 16 total receptions. The line is higher than I’d like, but he should still hit.
TB @ LV
· Josh Jacobs under 54.5 rushing yards (not available at the time of this writing)
· Darren Waller over 4.5 receptions (not available at the time of this writing)
Josh Jacobs is averaging 75 rushing yards per game with a season low of 48 yards in Week 4, but Tampa Bay boasts the best run defense in the league, giving up an average of just 40 yards per game. This is not a product of scheduling. The Buccaneers have held several high-profile backs in check this season, including Alvin Kamara (12 carries, 16 yards), Melvin Gordon (8 carries, 26 yards), David Montgomery (10 carries, 29 yards), and Aaron Jones (10 carries, 15 yards). The most yards they’ve given up to a single rusher this season is Christian McCaffrey, who they still held to under 60 yards. Making matters worse for Josh Jacobs, the Las Vegas Raiders are dealing with a COVID-19 issue that’s left the status of their entire starting offensive line in jeopardy. I think the lack of ground game will force Derek Carr to go to the air. He’ll check it down often to his favorite target, tight end Darren Waller, who has averaged 7 catches a game (more if you exclude his 2-catch day when he was shut down by the Patriots). The NFL has flexed the game out of its primetime Sunday Night Football slot in case it needs to be postponed (this is likely the reason that oddsmakers have yet to publish player props), so keep an eye on that. Once the lines drop… drop the hammer!
SNF Spreads and Player Props:
SEA @ ARI
· DeAndre Hopkins over 75.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Christian Kirk over 46.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Chris Carson to score 1st TD (+650 at DraftKings)*
· Total points over 54.5 (-113 at DraftKings)
Seattle’s secondary holds the unwanted distinction of being the worst secondary in the league thus far, giving up more yards and fantasy points than any other to the wide receiver position. They are historically bad, giving up 282 yards per game and a whopping 94 yards per wide receiver faced this season. That is not a typo. Wide receivers are averaging almost 100 yards each against the Seahawks. Of the 15 wide receivers they have faced, only 3 were held under 65 yards. Jamal Adams has been ruled out for a third straight game, which certainly won’t help matters. This week, they face their toughest task yet: containing DeAndre Hopkins, who leads all wide receivers this year with 601 yards through 6 games. Christian Kirk has quietly emerged as the Cardinals second receiver. His production has increased each week and he is averaging 60 yards per game over his last 4 starts. Get ready to see some fireworks in primetime.
Parlay Plays of the Week:
· 3-Team Money Line Parlay: BUF, GB, and KC
That’s all for now. Follow me at @a_volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and check back next week for more best bets and player props.
Disclaimer: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Any questions or comments?
Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!
Find me on Twitter right here!