NBA Stars & Scrubs
By DFS Shepsheat
*Draftkings Salaries are listed first, Fanduel Salaries are listed second.
Anfernee Simons (3,500) (4,800) – Damian Lillard has been ruled out for the next few games. I’m really surprised Draftkings didn’t increase Simons price. At $3,500 he is an absolute steal. He has 30 fpt upside all day long. Last game out back on Feb 12th, Simons put up 34.75 pts in 28 minutes vs MEM. This was with Lillard in. Lillard has missed 2 games this season where Simons got some extra run. Which was back on November, 19th and the 21st. On the 19th, The Blazers played the Pelicans. Same matchup they have tonight. Simons put up 24.3 DK fpts in 36 minutes. The next game on the 21st they played MIL, a very tough matchup. Simons didn’t fair too well in this matchup only playing 17 minutes and accumulating 12 DK pts. Given the matchup and his pricetag on DK, Simons is a safe lock in Cash games. On Fanduel he is priced significantly higher where value may be a reach, but not impossible. Vegas does currently have this game as the highest over/under on the slate. The Blazers are in a paced up matchup and the Pelicans are also allowing the 6th most fpts to PGs and the 8th most fpts to SG. Simons is listed as a Combo Guard, The Pelicans are allowing the 2nd most fpts in the league to CG.
C.J. McCollum (6,600) (6,900) – Like mentioned above, Lillard is ruled out. McCollum is averaging 35 Dk pts and 34 FD pts on the year. Which is pretty much right around 5x value at his price tag. With Lillard out, paced up, and facing a Pelicans team ranked in the bottom 10 DVP and DEF rating wise… I don’t see how McCollum can not hit value here. McCollum also is averaging 7 3pt Att/gm. The Pelicans are allowing the 5th most 3’s per game. With Lillard out, I expect McCollum to be letting them fly tonight.
Tyus Jones (3,300) (3,900) – This MEM guard position is so tough to judge, One night its Jones you want, the next its Morant. Well last night it was a Jones and a Melton night. Melton was the top value play of the night getting 41 fpts and hitting 10.45x value. Jones wasn’t far behind hitting 8.5x value. Tonight MEM has a tougher matchup facing the Lakers who have been a pretty solid team all year. They are currently ranked the 4th best at DEF rating in the league. The only position they are ranked outside the top 10 DVP wise is to the PG position where they are allowing the 7th most fpts. The reason I would go with Jones over Melton tonight is simply because Jones is 100% PG. Melton only plays the PG position 23% of the time and 77% at the SG positon where the Lakers are allowing the 10th least amount of Fpts. Now if your wondering why wouldn’t I pick Morant then? Well the Lakers are 11 Point favorites in this game which I could see them winning by even more. Giving the bench players more run. I would much rather pay for a cheap price tag in a potential blowout than for an inconsistent Morant.
Other Guard I Like tonight are … (Kyle Lowry, Malik Beasley, Ish Smith, Marcus Smart, Lonzo Ball)
I am Fading both Donovan Mitchel and D’Angelo Russell tonight.
I am seeing both projected as the 3rd and 4th highest owned guards on the slate. Now Mike Conley has already been ruled out for tonights game, this would give Mitchell a boost in usage, but this also puts Mitchell in role to play more from the PG position than at SG. The spurs are allowing the 10th least amount of fpts to the PG position.
De’Angelo Russel is facing a BOS defense who are no slouch, especially when it comes to guarding Guards where they are ranked 4th to PG and 7th to SG. Also with Kemba being ruled out this puts Smart on Russel and Smart is one of the best defensive guards in the league.
Jayson Tatum (7,800) (8,700) – Kemba Walker is ruled out tonight. Last game Kemba was out (2/5/20) Tatum put up 62 DK fpts vs ORL. The last 4 games Walker has missed, Tatums weakest performance was 40.3 DK fpts vs PHI. Tonight he gets a great matchup facing a MIN team that is allowing the 8th most fpts to the PF position. Tatum is currently projected to be the 2nd highest owned Forward of the night..
Domantis Sabonis (9,600) (7,700) – I think Sabonis is only in play on FD. With a 2k price difference, he is just way to expensive for me on DK. Facing a Knicks team allowing the 2nd most fpts to PF and the 13th most to Cs. Sabonis is in a great matchup here. He is averaging 41.4 FD fpts/gm. Which is more than 5x value at this price tag. In a matchup vs the Knicks he should be able to top his average and get you 6x value. He will also be much lower owned than Tatum, so if your looking for a good pivot. Sabonis is the guy.
Aaron Gordon (7,300) (6,900) – Now we all seen Gordon get robbed by the NBA for a second time in the Slam Dunk contest this past weekend. I think Gordon will have a chip on his shoulder and play some real aggressive ball these next few games. Gordon has also been performing really well these past few games. Last game going for 54 fpts right below 8x value. He is facing a DAL team ranked in the top 10 in DVP to PFs. So he isn’t in the best spot. But he could demand the ball and want to put on a show due to what happened at the Dunk Contest. Strictly a GPP play.
Other Forwards I like… ( Mikal Bridges, Juan Hernangomez, James Johnson, Gary Trent)
I will be Fading Carmelo Anthony tonight. Carmelo Anthony is currently projected to be the highest owned Forward of the night. He is priced at 5,300 on DK and 4,900 on FD. He has only gotten over 30 fpts twice in the last 10 games. He does take roughly 15 FG att/gm. With Lillard out, this will probably get a boost. I just don’t see him going crazy over value. Out of all positions the PF is the position that the Pelicans are the toughest at. Now that Zion has been playing too, the numbers to PF have went down as well. Zion does have a positive DRPM. If I’m right and Melo has a low scoring game and he is highly owned, it could be a huge boost to your lineups.
Serge Ibaka (6,500) (6,600) – Right now Center is looking like a pretty tough position tonight. With Lillard out you could go the Whiteside route, but he hasn’t really been paying off that high price tag lately. Drummond has yet to see over 30 minutes since joining the Cavs. Last game Love was even out and Drummond only seen 22 minutes. This has got me looking at Ibaka. Marc Gasol is out again. In the last 5 games Ibaka has reached over 40 fpts in 3 of them. Facing a PHX team who are allowing the 12th most fpts to Cs on the year. I think Ibaka is a really good option. PHX is allowing the 4th most OFF rebounds and allowing the 9th most total rebounds. Ibaka is averaging 8 rebounds per game. He could very easily get you a double double tonight.
Naz Reid (4,500) (4,200) – Big KAT is ruled out tonight. KAT also missed the last game MIN played back on 2/12 vs CHA. In that game Reid seen 22 mins and posted 23 fpts. He does have a tougher matchup tonight facing the Celtics. But Reid has been a pretty solid fpt/min player. So Reid should see some valuable minutes here tonight. MIN no longer has Dieng as a backup Center, he was traded to MEM.
James Johnson (4,600) (5,200) – I am seeing Johnson currently listed to start at Center tonight for MIN. For MIN he has mostly been playing from the PF spot. Playing 95% at PF and 3% at C. He has been the better player between him and Reid. So its pretty much a coin toss between these 2. If your playing on FD. I think I’d roll with Reid due to him being 1k cheaper. But on DK, I’d roll with Johnson since their prices are so similar.
Other Centers I like …. ( Hassan Whiteside, Anthony Davis, Larry Nance)