2020 NFL Mock Draft – Advantage with Rankings

2020 NFL Mock Drafts – Advantage with Rankings
3/31/20
Ethan Cowlbeck

The NFL off-season has been all we could possibly ask for. It is for this reason that we are extremely lucky; the concept of football being the most relevant sport at the end of March is completely unprecedented, so being able to witness the fireworks show of names like Brady, Gurley, Hopkins, and others being moved around is the best case scenario.

Buccaneers acquire Tom Brady in free agency from Patriots

I think this is a great time to take a step back and analyze any mistakes we made in the previous fantasy season, and take note of how to prevent ourselves from making the same mistakes next year. Often during the season, I think of general rules of thumb to remember for drafts in upcoming years; “Consider the quality of the team when assessing the correctness of an ADP”, “Don’t avoid player’s just because of injuries. Consider it case to case”, etc. These are a few of my biggest regrets, but feel free to use yours in their place.

Cooper Kupp returns from ACL tear to finish WR#4 in 2019

However, simple rules of thumb like these are mere tokens of experience. A much cloudier subject in the month or two leading up to kickoff is often how to value positional rankings. On a surface level, they’re super fun to make. Taking positions and having unique opinions on where to rank players is an enjoyable and exciting part of the game. Drafting is a completely different challenge though. The magic of fantasy football drafts is that you have to account and cover for all positions on your team at the same time as your league mates, and rankings are often hard to stick to in this regard.

Lamar Jackson will likely be the first QB off of the board, but how do you determine where to draft him?

There are two extremes of drafting strategies that will always fall short:

Strategy 1. The Robot: “I have a fixed order for how I draft my positions. RB, RB, WR, RB, WR, TE.”

Strategy 2. Gut Feeling: “(Insert player here) is still available, and I’ve got a gut feeling he’ll do well, so I’ll take him.” This process repeats every round

Strategy 1 is not the answer because there were likely one or more very good players that were passed up on in order to comply with the drafter’s set order, and strategy 2 misses the mark because it involves assuming a player might have a good year instead of taking a player who is trustworthy and almost certainly will have a good year. My goal is to determine a way to draft that is guided by a process but still involves human decision.

The reason that ranking players and drafting solely off of those rankings doesn’t work is because ADP is not factored in. Drafting is a chess match between you and your league mates to see who can get the best players they want as late in the draft as possible. This is why you would benefit from ranking players two different ways. The first way is the standard method of ranking. Head to head, starting at the best, and working down with what’s left. These will obviously change as news about teams and players come out leading up to the draft, but that is to be expected.

Joe Mixon severely under performed relative to his mid-second round ADP

The second way is where ADP comes into play. Look at players and their average draft positions and color code their value. Green if you would draft them way ahead of their position, blue if their value matches their ADP, and red if you think they’re overvalued. In 2019 fantasy drafts, Todd Gurley was drafted frequently at the beginning of the second round. Many (myself included) thought this was much too high considering the arthritis in his knees. However, even if a player is overvalued at their ADP, there still comes a point where you would draft them. In one of my drafts, Gurley fell to the back of the third round in a 10 man PPR. While it was unsettling, I took him.

So how does this process look all put together? The first round is pretty simple. Most people have a hierarchy of players they will take, and base their following rounds on what they already have and what’s left. For those following rounds, Look for the players you have ranked highest on your head to head rankings, and of the high-ranking players, see which ones are color coded with the most green while addressing positional needs on your team. Draft prep like this prevents you from boxing yourself into set rules and giving you the freedom to draft how you choose, while eliminating the stress and panic of picking and drafting on the fly.

Thank you for reading! Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie?

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Check out Ethans other work here https://www.dfscheatsheet.com/2020-mid-round-mock-madness-rounds-5-8/nfl/03/

2020 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Round 2)

2020 Fantasy Football Mock Draft (Round 2)
3/29/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Football is upon us! In terms of drafting the content is a little early. The big names have already built projections and published books and magazines. Being early is not a bad thing. If you’re like me too much content isn’t a thing. Given the current situation across the county mock drafting and fantasy football discussions are needed!

Normally the fun leading up to the fantasy football draft season is talk of the top 10. Or who is the consensus number one. This season it’s quiet clear. Right?

What sets fantasy football aside for me is all the strategy that goes in. Some owners like crafty veterans while others want all rookies. There is no right way! It’s your team! You’re able to build it how you want!

I’m asking you all now to please get involved in a dynasty start up. I’m not trying to push my ideals on anyone but I promise you’ll thank me later! Fantasy football is a 365 24/7 kind of commitment!

We all find our own way in terms of fantasy sports. There is no wrong way! Build how you want and build to maximize your enjoyment.

I’m going to get into a mock draft series and publish the results! 12 team, full PPR scoring. Also six points per passing touchdown. I’m in a unique position to set the rules as I see fit. Lets get right into it!

ROUND 2

Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones

13. Aaron Jones RB-Green Bay Packers

First round talent right here. The running back has always been the focal point in Green Bay. Plus Wisconsin in November/December is conducive for running. Ha!

Jacksonville Jaguars RB Leonard Fournette

14. Leonard Fournette RB-Jacksonville Jaguars

We finally saw what Leo can do while staying injury free! Really surprised me with his receiving skills!

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

15. Travis Kelce TE-Kansas City

If you draft Kelce here you gain a clear advantage. You are selecting the best player at a premium position. Travis puts up yards and points that some WR dream of accomplishing.

Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb

16. Nick Chubb RB-Cleveland Browns

Is anyone worried about Kareem Hunt? Chubb rushed for 100 yards in four of seven games when Hunt was active. I’ve never looked twice at Chubb, maybe that isn’t fair but at a certain point him and Hunt will just cancel each other out.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Chris Godwin

17. Chris Godwin WR-Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tom Brady is now the QB in Tampa! Do we give Godwin a slight boost? Heck yeah we do! Godwin finished as WR2 last season. Expect more of the same in 2020.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

18. Josh Jacobs RB-Las Vegas Raiders

Kid had one heck of a rookie season! Now we know what we have in Josh. I’m expecting a monster season!

Cincinnati Bengal’s RB Joe Mixon

19. Joe Mixon RB-Cincinnati Bengal’s

Joe scratched and clawed last season on a horrible Bengal team. Do they draft Joe Burrow next month? I’d bet the farm on it. AJ Green has also been franchised so things are looking up in Cincy. Expect Mixon to have a fantastic season.

Denver Broncos RB Melvin Gordon            photo courtesy USAtoday.com

20. Melvin Gordon RB-Denver Broncos

MG3 is in Denver now. So is Philip Lindsay, what does that mean? In today’s NFL the one two RB combo is the new normal. Personally, I see MG3 being fine while Lindsay’s number drop just a tad. Gordon is the back to own in Denver. Calling it now.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers WR Mike Evans

21. Mike Evans WR-Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I love Mike and I love these Tampa Bay WR’s in 2020. Evans can be a monster and expect him to dominate. High floor kind of guy.

Arizona Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake

22. Kenyan Drake RB-Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals new starting RB with Hopkins out wide should pay dividends! Expect Arizona to target offensive lineman in the draft and watch them trickle in during free agency. Drake is excites me this season!

Detroit Lions WR Kenny Golladay

23. Kenny Golladay WR-Detroit Lions

Did you know Kenny lead the league in WR touchdowns last season. Also, Matthew Stafford missed major time! Kenny still did his thing with multiple QB’s so what can we expect with a healthy Stafford?

Dallas Cowboys WR Amari Cooper

24. Amari Cooper WR-Dallas Cowboys

I will be honest with you, I’ve never owned Cooper. Don’t think I’ve ever wanted to. Not the best endorsement right? He finalized a deal to stay in Dallas with Zeke and Dak. I can’t deny the talent and the numbers he puts up. He belongs in the second round.

That’s it for round 2!

Thank you for reading! Any questions or comments?

Did I miss someone? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hang here for Round 3 tomorrow! What would your round 2 look like?

How about round 3? Let me know in the comments!