Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390
Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the oddsmakers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!
*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Week 2 Betting Recap:
After a huge Week 2, the Gambling Guru faced some regression in Week 3. I hit on 3 of the 5 Thursday Night props—Myles Gaskin easily hit on both of his props and the Dophins trumped the Jaguars (I told you to fade the ’stache!)—before going 10-15 in the Sunday afternoon slate of games. Several factors contributed to the shortcomings, including Diontae Johnson getting knocked out of his matchup with a concussion and Bucaneers head coach Bruce Arians inexplicably sticking with Ronald Jones over Leonard Fournette. But several players fell just short of their props. Miles Sanders missed his total yards prop by a measly 2.5 yards—adding extra justification for my screaming at the television as the Eagles passed and then punted for the tie at the end of the game instead of running the ball to get in better field goal range. Austin Ekeler and Kenyan Drake also narrowly missed their rushing yard props, though the former crushed his passing and total yardage prop. The Bears-Falcons game in particular was brutal as all four of my bets fell short. I was saved from a disastrous day by a huuuge performance by Alvin Kamara in the night cap. Kamara hit both of his props, as well as the first TD scorer bet—his second time this season already (shameless brag: he also propelled me to a comeback victory in fantasy with 44+ points).
Week 3 Record: 15-18 (45%)
Let’s see if we can recover here in Week 4, starting with some TNF props…
TNF Player Props and Bets: DEN @ NYJ
· Melvin Gordon over 60.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Noah Fant over 43.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
· Jerry Jeudy over 50.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
· K.J. Hamler over 33.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Melvin Gordon to score the first TD (+500 at DraftKings)*
Just when we thought the Thursday Night games couldn’t get any uglier, the NFL unloads a battle of basement dwellers on us as the talentless New York Jets play host to the hapless Denver Broncos. The Jets, indefinitely hindered by the Adam Gase Effect and plagued with injuries at the skilled positions, offer little in terms of player prop value. The options on the other side are just as unappetizing, as third-string quarterback Brett Rypien will be getting the start for the Broncos. Still, what kind of Gambling Guru would I be if I sat this one out? Unlike these teams, I have heart, so I’ve dug deep for these sleeper picks.
First, the chalk. Through 3 games this season, Melvin Gordon has 42 rushing attempts and 174 yards. That averages out to 58 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Gordon was notably limited last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, getting only 8 touches in the ground game. Poor game script aside, I suspect that’s because head coach Vic Fangio wanted to keep him fresh for tonight’s game since they’ll be playing on a short week. The Jets defense is quite possibly the worst in the league and this is Rypien’s first official start, so all things point to Denver pounding the rock. If Gordon gets a workload closer to the first two games of the season, he should have at least 15 carries. That puts him on track for at least 62 yards so I’m hammering the over there. I’ll also pick him to score the game’s first touchdown, simply because there are no better options.
I’m also going in on Noah Fant’s yardage prop. he’s eclipsed this in each game so far this year, with 81, 57, and 46 yards. The yardage is trending in the wrong direction, but I’m confident he’ll pull through as Rypien’s security blanket. I’ll also take the over on Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler’s receiving yards as yards should be easy to come by against this Jets secondary.
Sunday Spreads and Player Props:
SEA @ MIA:
· Myles Gaskin over 3.5 receptions (-112 at Bet MGM)
· Myles Gaskin over 24.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· DeVante Parker over 4.5 receptions (-105 at DraftKings)
· DeVante Parker over 61.5 receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel)
· Tyler Lockett over 72.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Tyler Lockett over 5.5 receptions (+105 at Bet MGM)
· DK Metcalf over 67.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
Tyler Locket has averaged 8 receptions for over 85 yards per game so far this season and D.K. Metcalf has averaged about 100 yards per game. Look for more of the same against a weak Miami secondary this Sunday. Hammer the over on all three of these mispriced lines. On the flip side, Seattle has been the second worst team against the pass so far. That makes DeVante Parker a solid bet to go over his reception and receiving yards prop. Parker eclipsed both numbers last week against the Jaguars, in spite of a negative game script, and came within 15 yards of the receiving prop in the first two games against the elite corners on the Bills and Patriots. Myles Gaskin, who is averaging 30 yards on 5 receptions per game, will continue to get work on passing downs, as they’ll be playing from behind in this one.
N.O. @ DET:
· Alvin Kamara over 7.5 receptions (+123 at DraftKings)
· Alvin Kamara over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Kenny Golladay over 60.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
No surprises here. My love affair with Alvin Kamara continues as I project him to go over 59.5 receiving yards and total 8 or more receptions. It’s a steep number, but he absolutely crushed it last week in a shootout with the Packers. Michael Thomas has been already been ruled out for a third straight week, so the “Drew Brees Checkdown Show” starring Alvin Kamara will continue. For Detroit, I like Golladay to flash in his second start, especially since both starting corners for the Saints are out. Hammer all three of these props.
CLE @ DAL:
· CeeDee Lamb over 61.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Michael Gallup over 57.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
The Cleveland Browns have been one of the worst teams against slot receivers. That bodes well for stud rookie CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging over 75 yards and no fewer than 59 yards through three games this year. I also like Michael Gallup to go over his receiving yards prop. He’s had fewer receptions than Lamb, but his average yards per reception has been much higher in each game this season at 16.67, 29, and 23. Gallup and Prescott have also come close to hooking up on several other 40+ passes this year—it’s clear that he is the go-to deep target. I found the best line (both in terms of lowest threshold and lowest juice) at DraftKings so shop around. *hammer* *hammer*
ARI @ CAR:
· Kenyan Drake over 70.5 rushing yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
· ***BEST BET*** Mike Davis over 5.5 receptions (+117 at DraftKings)
· Mike Davis over 39.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
Kenyan Drake has been disappointing so far this season. But this week? We love the Drake. To quote Seinfeld: “How can you not like the Drake?”
We’ve seen him go off in the past—I can attest to that from a painful personal experience in the second half of my Fantasy Championship last year—and this is a great blowup spot. The Carolina Panthers have the worst run defense in the league and have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Drop. The. Hammer.
For the Panthers, I am banking on Mike Davis continuing to be a PPR machine in the absence of Christian McCaffrey. I think he tops his receiving yards prop easily as the Panthers should be playing from behind in this game. Davis had 8 receptions in each of his two starts this year, so I’m shocked that his line is only 5.5 receptions at DraftKings and even more shocked that it’s being offered at plus money. That’s a huge oversight by Vegas. Make them pay. I’m laying down the hammer like Thor.
BUF @ LVR:
· Josh Jacobs over 72.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Darren Waller over 5.5 receptions (+105 at Bet MGM)
· Devin Singletary over 77.5 total yards (-124 at DraftKings)
· Devin Singletary over 58.5 rushing yards (-112 at FanDuel)
Devin Singletary made the most of his 17 touches last week accounting for over 125 of Buffalo’s yards on offense. Zack Moss is questionable to return from his toe injury, after getting limited sessions in practice this week. Look for head coach Sean McDermott to stick with the hot hand. Bill Belichick always schemes a way to control the opponent’s best player, so it was no surprise he targeted Darren Waller in last week’s matchup. Waller will bounce back from his abysmal performance in a big way today. He has to if the Raiders are going to stay in this game. Josh Jacobs will also be a key to a Raiders victory and slowing down a red-hot Josh Allen. I don’t think they will, but I do think they nail these props.
BAL @ WAS
· BAL -12.5 (+110 Odds Boost at FanDuel)
Baltimore’s offense is too unpredictable to find any juicy props here and Washington—well, they are a professional football team… but one without a name or talent. Lamar Jackson has heard the talk and will look to disprove the “haters” with a 2019-esque MVP performance. FanDuel is going to regret this Odds Boost promo. Hammer it.
Parlay Play of the Week:
4-team money line parlay: SEA, NO, LAR, and BAL (+171 at DraftKings)*
There’s not much analysis to offer on this one. The Ravens and Rams should run away in their respective games and, on paper, the Seahawks and Saints should have their way as well. If you want to be ballsy, you can take NO -3 and SEA -5 instead of the money lines or look for an alternate game line for Baltimore and Los Angeles for a higher payout. It all depends on your level of risk aversion.
That’s all for now. Follow me at https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and Check back next week for more best bets and player props.
The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 3 is 47-43, hitting on 52% of his bets. Additionally, he is 3-2-1 on first TD scorer calls.
*First TD scorer and Parlay Plays are not counted in overall standings.
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