Hammer Time WK7

Hammer Time WK8
Anthony Volanti

Washington Redskins WR Terry McLaurin

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! After going 3-3 on player props and picks, 1-1 on parlay plays, and 1-1 on first TD scorer bets in Week 6, my cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 7 is as follows:
· Player Props and Game Picks: 75-79, hitting on 49% of bets
· Parlay Plays: 4-3
· First TD Scorer Bets: 4-5-4*
*“Ties” indicate player scored later in the game (winning wager back with DraftKings Primetime 1st TD Scorer Promo)

Lots of action to get to today nut let’s begin with a quick recap of the Thursday night game.

TNF Player Props and Bets:
NYG @ PHI: 5-5
· PHI -2.5 (lost)
· Over 44.5 total (lost)
· Devonta Freeman under 54.5 rushing yards (won)
· Daniel Jones over 20 rushing yards (won)
· Carson Wentz over 15 rushing yards (lost)
· DeSean Jackson over 34.5 receiving yards (lost)
· Boston Scott over 39.5 rushing yards (won)
· Travis Fulgham over 4 receptions (won)
· Travis Fulgham over 44.5 receiving yards (won)
· Travis Fulgham to score (lost)
The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New York Giants by a single point in an ugly divisional game Thursday night. It was perhaps the most frustrating win I’ve ever witnessed as an Eagles fan. Jake Elliot missed a 29-yard chip shot field goal and the Eagles failed to convert on a 2-point conversion late in the 4th quarter, which busted both the spread and over total points bets. Carson Wentz and DeSean Jackson both fell 1 yard shy of their player props as well. The Eagles (2-4-1) laughably sit atop the historically bad NFC East heading into Sunday of Week 7.

But enough wallowing in self-pity. It’s time to drop the hammer on these best bets and win some money. LET’S GOOO!

Sunday Spreads and Player Props:

· Terry McLaurin over 72.5 receiving yards (-165 at DraftKings)
“Scary” Terry McLaurin is averaging over 80 yards per game this season and over 13 yards per reception. Meanwhile, the maligned secondary of the Dallas Cowboys is giving up over 160 yards to receivers per week and over 100 yards to the opposing team’s top target. This may be my favorite bet of the week. Hand me Thor’s hammer, please.


BUF WR Stefon Diggs

· BUF -10 (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Stefan Diggs over 75.5 receiving yards (-155 at DraftKings; over 78.5 -110 at FanDuel)
· Cole Beasley over 56.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
The New York Jets are far and away the worst team in the NFL. The last time these two teams met in Week 1, the New York’s secondary gave up a combined 214 yards to Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley. Brown has been ruled out for the grudge match, giving a boost to the other two’s projections. Diggs enters the game averaging over 90 yards per game and went over this line last time with 86 yards. Beasley has flown under the radar with 60 yards per game and put up 56 in Week 1. The only way these two don’t smash is if the Buffalo Bills get such a big early lead that they pull their starters or salt the game with the run.


New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara

· Alvin Kamara receptions over 5.5 receptions (-125 at Bet MGM)
· Alvin Kamara over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
Michael Thomas was aiming for a Week 5 return from his high ankle sprain but missed that game due to disciplinary actions. He was fully recovered coming out of the Saints Week 6 BYE, but then pulled a hamstring. He’ll now miss his fifth straight game, keeping Alvin Kamara positioned as the focal point of the Saints offense. Their opponent, the Carolina Panthers, have given up the 4th most fantasy points to the running back position this season. It’s a perfect storm. Hammer the over.

· GB -3 (boosted to -110 at DraftKings)
· Aaron Jones or Jamal Williams over rushing yards (not available at the time of this writing)
The Houston Texans have arguably the worst rush defense in the league this season, giving up an average of 157.5 yards per game and four 100-yard rushers. Last week they were trampled under Derrick Henry, who galloped for 212 yards. Aaron Jones will feast—if he plays. If he doesn’t, his carries will shift to Jamaal Williams with rookie A.J. Dillon feasting on the scraps in a larger-than-usual role.

· Kareem Hunt over 86.5 rushing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
Cincinnati’s defense is giving up an average of just over 100 rushing yards per game this season—middle of the pack. However, the maligned defensive line of the Bengals gave up over 200 yards in their first game against the Browns. Vegas has set this player prop right where Hunt finished in that contest with 86 yards, but he was playing second fiddle to Nick Chubb, who chalked up over 120 yards as Cleveland’s primary back. With Chubb still on injured reserve, Hunt should smash.

· Kenny Golladay over 74.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
You know the drill here. We hammer receivers facing Atlanta’s abysmal secondary. The Falcons are giving up 188.5 yards per game to wideouts and 8 receivers have gone over this line this year. Kenny Golladay has only started three games this season, but he’s clearly Matthew Stafford’s top target. He’s racked up 57, 62, and 105 yards on 16 total receptions. The line is higher than I’d like, but he should still hit.

· Josh Jacobs under 54.5 rushing yards (not available at the time of this writing)
· Darren Waller over 4.5 receptions (not available at the time of this writing)
Josh Jacobs is averaging 75 rushing yards per game with a season low of 48 yards in Week 4, but Tampa Bay boasts the best run defense in the league, giving up an average of just 40 yards per game. This is not a product of scheduling. The Buccaneers have held several high-profile backs in check this season, including Alvin Kamara (12 carries, 16 yards), Melvin Gordon (8 carries, 26 yards), David Montgomery (10 carries, 29 yards), and Aaron Jones (10 carries, 15 yards). The most yards they’ve given up to a single rusher this season is Christian McCaffrey, who they still held to under 60 yards. Making matters worse for Josh Jacobs, the Las Vegas Raiders are dealing with a COVID-19 issue that’s left the status of their entire starting offensive line in jeopardy. I think the lack of ground game will force Derek Carr to go to the air. He’ll check it down often to his favorite target, tight end Darren Waller, who has averaged 7 catches a game (more if you exclude his 2-catch day when he was shut down by the Patriots). The NFL has flexed the game out of its primetime Sunday Night Football slot in case it needs to be postponed (this is likely the reason that oddsmakers have yet to publish player props), so keep an eye on that. Once the lines drop… drop the hammer!

SNF Spreads and Player Props:
· DeAndre Hopkins over 75.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Christian Kirk over 46.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Chris Carson to score 1st TD (+650 at DraftKings)*
· Total points over 54.5 (-113 at DraftKings)
Seattle’s secondary holds the unwanted distinction of being the worst secondary in the league thus far, giving up more yards and fantasy points than any other to the wide receiver position. They are historically bad, giving up 282 yards per game and a whopping 94 yards per wide receiver faced this season. That is not a typo. Wide receivers are averaging almost 100 yards each against the Seahawks. Of the 15 wide receivers they have faced, only 3 were held under 65 yards. Jamal Adams has been ruled out for a third straight game, which certainly won’t help matters. This week, they face their toughest task yet: containing DeAndre Hopkins, who leads all wide receivers this year with 601 yards through 6 games. Christian Kirk has quietly emerged as the Cardinals second receiver. His production has increased each week and he is averaging 60 yards per game over his last 4 starts. Get ready to see some fireworks in primetime.

Parlay Plays of the Week:
· 3-Team Money Line Parlay: BUF, GB, and KC

That’s all for now. Follow me at @a_volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and check back next week for more best bets and player props.

Disclaimer: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here!

Hammer Time wk3 (Sunday Edition)

Hammer Time
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 2 Betting Recap:
Wow. What a huge week for the Gambling Guru (and you, if you’ve been following my best bets and player props). First, the Nick Chubb to score the 1st TD prop (+400 at DraftKings and +650 on FanDuel) hit on Thursday night. That was a nice payout, especially if you did the max $20 for the DraftKings promo or took advantage of the higher odds on FanDuel. The Chubb over 71.5 rushing yards also smashed. The Joe Burrow over 23.5 rushing yards narrowly missed—at one point in the game he actually had it before taking a loss on a subsequent play—and the Same Game Parlay missed one leg because the total points went over. That provided a profitable 2-3 start to the weekend.

On Sunday, my best bets were split down the middle, but injuries to Saquon Barkley, Parris Campbell were partly to blame. Green Bay and San Francisco easily covered, while Kansas City avoided an upset and Tennessee pushed in the teaser. But we also learned just how bad Minnesota and Philadelphia are this year; the Vikings and Eagles are officially on the list of teams I can’t trust. Miami got a backdoor cover against Buffalo that I’m going to chalk up to a combination of Ryan Fitz“magic” and the game delay caused by the wild weather. However you slice it, it’s a lackluster 11-12 performance in the main slate.

The Monday night game was the big winner, however, as almost all of my player props hit. Alvin Kamara scored the first touchdown (+550 at DraftKings) then scored a second time (+600 at FanDuel). If you bet both props and Kamara to score at any time (a mis-priced -105 at FanDuel), you had a big day. Kamara also crushed his over 4.5 receptions, 37.5 receiving yards, and 90.5 total yards props. Likewise, Josh Jacobs hit the over on 2.5 receptions, 68.5 rushing yards, and 85.5 total yards. He failed to find the end zone and narrowly missed his over 17.5 receiving yards line with 17 yards, which killed 3 props. Still, that’s a dominant 9-3 finish to the Week 2.

Week 2 Record: 22-18 (55%)

Let’s see if we can keep it going for Week 3, starting with some TNF props…

TNF Player Props and Bets: MIA @ JAX
· Myles Gaskin over 16.5 receiving yards (-122 at FanDuel)
· Myles Gaskin over 2.5 receptions (-148 at DraftKings)
· Mike Gesicki over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Over 48.5 total points (-110 at DraftKings)
· MIA +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Minshew Mania may be in full effect, but Jacksonville’s defense is still a bottom feeder. So far this season, running backs have gashed the Jaguars when catching balls out of the backfield. Myles Gaskin has been impressive thus far as the surprise starter in Miami, so I expect that to continue tonight. Sure, there’s always a slim chance that receiving back specialist Matt Brieda steals the show, I’m confident coach Brian Flores will ride the hot hand. I think Gaskin goes over 2 receptions and smashes the receiving yards line (I’d even bet it up to 20 yards if the line continues to move). I also love Mike Gesicki to hit on his 49.5 receiving yards prop. Through two games, the Dolphins young tight end has been targeted 16 times, logging 160 yards on 11 receptions. DeVante Parker was removed from the injury report Wednesday, but playing on a short week after fighting through a hamstring injury only boosts the odds for Gesicki to be the focal point of this passing attack led by Fitz“magic”. I anticipate a high-scoring, messy affair. I’ll take the points with the Dolphins simply because I believe in the coaching staff. Fear the beard, fade the ’stache, and hammer these bets.

Sunday Spreads and Player Props:

Cincinnati Bengal’s RB Joe Mixon

· ***BEST BET*** Miles Sanders over 109.5 total yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· DeSean Jackson over 55.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Joe Mixon under 65.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· PHI -4.5 (+105 at FanDuel)
To quote the great Marshawn Lynch, “you know why I’m here.” I’m taking my Birds to cover 4.5 points and defeat the Bengal’s for the first time in 20 years (yes, seriously). I’ve been wrong on a lot of my Eagles picks this year, but that can only mean I’m due for a hot streak. Right? There is no such thing as a must-win in Week 3 but if Philadelphia can’t come away with a win against Cincinnati, the season is lost. Luckily, when Wentz’s back is against the wall, he responds. And right now, not only is his back pressed up against the wall, but a large Philadelphian mob is waiting on the other side with pitchforks and torches. In terms of player props, I’m sticking with Miles Sanders this week and fading the lead back on the other side. The offensive and defensive lines for the Bengal’s are among the worst in the league. That bodes well for Sanders, who I think easily surpasses the total yards mark, and poorly for Joe Mixon, who I think will run the rock less than 15 times. I’ll fade the DeSean Jackson touchdown prop this week (fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice… you’re off the best bets), but I will take the over on his yardage prop since Jalen Reagor is out.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

LV @ NE:
· Josh Jacobs over 2.5 receptions (-110 at Bet MGM)
· Josh Jacobs over 15.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
· NE -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Bill Belichick always tries to take away the opponent’s best weapon. You could argue that Josh Jacobs is said player, but recent bias would make a strong case for Darren Waller. Either way, I like Jacobs as a reliable check down option. He’s embraced the extra work in the passing game and should get 3 catches easily and just over 5 yards per reception is a reasonable ask. I also think the Patriots will come prepared after the heartbreak in Seattle last week. Meanwhile, the Raiders are primed for a letdown after their upset win in their stadium’s inaugural game.

Atlanta Falcons WR Calvin Ridley

· David Montgomery over 14.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· David Montgomery over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Calvin Ridley to score (-112 at DraftKings)
· Atlanta -3 (-104 at DraftKings)
Fact: The Atlanta Falcons have had the worst secondary this season. This should be a get-right game for Mitch Trubisky, which will buy him at least one more week before he’s supplanted by Nick Foles, and Allen Robinson, who has been dragging down fantasy teams this season. That being said, the lines are rather chalky. I see more value on the lines for David Montgomery, who has been Chicago’s lone bright spot thus far. On the other side, I have Ridley scoring yet another touchdown this week (I just can’t quit him) but am not touching the inflated line Vegas has posted. The Bears are undefeated, but their victories came against the lowly Lions and the Barkley-less Giants. “Matty Ice” may be too hot to handle.

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary

· Devin Singletary over 60.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
The Rams-Bills game is one of several great match-ups in Week 3. I’m leaning towards Buffalo, but not enough to make a call here. My favorite prop here is Devin Singletary to go over the rushing yards. Zack Moss will not play so Singletary will have the backfield all to himself. Well, unless T.J. Yeldon gets some carries. He won’t. Hammer the over.

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson

· Diontae Johnson over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
This one is another tough matchup. It’s hard to imagine Houston starting the season 0-3, but no one would fault them given their brutal opening schedule. Maybe a loss would put Bill O’Brian on the hot seat (probably not, but Texans fans can dream). The under on the rushing props for James Connor and David Johnson are enticing, but I am avoiding the unpredictable nightmare. Nothing else really stands out, except rising star Diontae Johnson. JuJu Smith-Schuster should draw the Texans top corner, which could mean Johnson gets loose. I’ll take the over 61.5 receiving yards while I still can.

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry

· Jonnu Smith over 41.5 receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel)
· TEN -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
I’ve already written off Minnesota this season. The defense is a far cry from what it was just a few seasons ago. The secondary in particular is atrocious, which is great news for Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. I prefer the latter—partly because the loss of Anthony Barr should help up the middle of the field for Smith and partly because I find it hard to trust Corey Davis to be consistent. Even if Tannehill throws for just 150 yards, Smith should smash this line. I’m also looking for the Titans to smash the Vikings and cover the 3. *hammering sounds*

Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

· ***BEST BET*** Austin Ekeler over 89.5 total yards (-109 at DraftKings)
· Austin Ekeler over 60.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Austin Ekeler over 26.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Another best bet? That’s right! I’m all in on Austin Ekeler this week. The Panthers had the worst run defense last year (which probably prompted them to go entirely defensive in the draft) and not much has changed. Joshua Kelley will eat into his carries and may vulture a touchdown, but there will be plenty of yards to go around. Give me the over on Ekeler’s rushing yards. Give me the over on Ekeler’s receiving yards. Give me the over on Ekeler’s total yards. Hammer, hammer, hammer!

Colts rookie RB Jonathan Taylor

· ***BEST BET*** Jonathan Taylor over 77.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
Surprise! A third best bet! The Jets could barely be called a professional football team when the season started, let alone now when they are crippled at the skilled positions. Who is Sam Darnold going to throw to? Can the ghost of Frank Gore do anything on the ground? The Colts will take a commanding lead and then it’s J.T. time. He may even double this line.

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson

· Chris Carson over 20.5 receiving yards (+106 at FanDuel)
There are a lot of juicy options in this game, especially given how Seattle’s secondary has played through two weeks. Unfortunately, Vegas has put up some chalky lines for Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and rookie CeeDee Lamb. I do like D.K. Metcalf now that the Seahawks are finally letting Russ cook, but my favorite bet here is on Chris Carson. He doesn’t scream “pass-catcher” but the bruising running back has put up huge numbers as a receiver so far this year. Vegas is asleep behind the wheel here with this line of 20.5 yards. Hammer the over.

Arizona RB Kenyan Drake

· Kenyan Drake over 77.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
I see Arizona running away with this one. Literally. It’s a high number, but Kenyan Drake is due for a big game and this may just be it. I love “the Drake” this week.

· Noah Fant over 3.5 receptions (-139 at Bet MGM)
· Leonard Fournette over 51.5 rushing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
· TB -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Denver Broncos have been decimated by injuries. Drew Lock and Courtland Sutton are out, and rookie Jerry Jeudy is a game-time decision. Hammer that 3.5 receptions. Tampa Bay has a stiff run defense, so I think Melvin Gordon will not be able to carry the load. That just leaves just Noah Fant as the safety blanket for backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Leonard Fournette, on the other hand, showed he could carry the load last week after Ronald Jones was benched following a fumble. Even if Lenny doesn’t get the start this week, he’ll take over at some point. He’ll crush this number as the Buccaneers sit on the ball and run out the clock. Hammer it.

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara

SNF Player Props and Bets: GB @ NO
· Alvin Kamara over 5.5 receptions (-139 at Bet MGM)
· Alvin Kamara to score (-167 at DraftKings)
· NO money line (-175 at DraftKings)
Can we postpone this game until both Michael Thomas and Davante Adams are healthy? Even without these stars, the game should be a fun one. Without knowing the status of Adams, it’s hard to pick a prop confidently for Green Bay. On the New Orleans side of things, I’ll stick with my new favorite running back (he won me quite a bit of money and has been clutch in fantasy), Alvin Kamara. He’s been the focal point of this offense in the absence of Michael Thomas. I like him over the receptions and think he’ll reach the endzone yet again. This game would be a pick ’em on a neutral site so it will be close. I’m leaning Saints if Adams sits, but that may just be because I don’t have any Packers on my fantasy teams.


MNF Player Props and Bets: KC @ BAL:
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score (+105 at Bet MGM)
· KC money line (+148 at FanDuel)
I can’t remember the last time we had such a big Monday Night Football match-up. I’m hesitant to fade this game entirely and just enjoy the fireworks, but I’ll make a couple of picks for my fellow gambling degenerates. I understand why Baltimore is a home favorite and that they match up well here, but I can’t pass up on the opportunity to bet the money line on Super Bowl LIV MVP and future Hall of Fame Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. I also love the mis-priced odds for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score at Bet MGM (another teachable moment—always shop around! This line was almost -200 at FanDuel and DraftKings).

Parlay Play of the Week:
· IND/TB/SEA all to win (+185 Odds Boost at DraftKings)

That’s all for now. Follow me at https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and Check back next week for more best bets and player props.

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 3 is 32-25, hitting on 56% of his bets.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Or on Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Hammer Time (NFL wk2)

Hammer Time (NFL wk2)
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the oddsmakers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note from the editor. As the season starts to pick back up so will our DFS play and our prop bets. Play safe and have fun! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Week 1 Betting Recap:
We started off hot last week, hitting on 4 of 5 Thursday Night Football bets but then a few upsets ruined our Sunday picks. Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t score first in the season opener as we’d hoped, but he did find the endzone eventually. The Chiefs covered the -9.5 spread (as if there was any doubt) and propelled the game over the alternate line of 49.5 points to help us hit on a same game parlay. Will Fuller was one of the few bright spots for the Texans, finishing with well over the 63.5 receiving yards prop he pegged him for.

On Sunday, the Bears squeaked out a victory with a late comeback and an ugly drop by Lions rookie running back De’Andre Swift. The Packers handled the Vikings easily, courtesy of Aaron Rodgers, who channeled his 2011 self and exposed Minnesota’s leaky secondary. Rodgers finished the day with a whopping stat line: 364 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 72.7% completion percentage. The Seahawks did indeed “let Russ cook,” and the result was a spectacular cover of the -2.5 spread in a high-scoring affair against the Falcons. In hindsight, this should have been marked as the best bet for Week 1. Atlanta’s offense is high-powered, but their defense is still abysmal, so I’m not sure why so much money was coming in on them.

On the player prop side, we only hit on 2 of 7 bets, but were close on most of the ones we missed. Josh Jacobs had a field day, as predicted, and easily went over his 77.5 rushing yards prop. Diggs did indeed feed on the Jets weak secondary, surpassing his 51.5 receiving yards prop. Todd Gurley just missed his 57.5 rushing yards prop and Aaron Jones did not find the endzone. That shouldn’t come as a surprise though, given the stats that the passing game put up in both affairs. In the night cap, Jared Goff also fell several yards short of his 285.5 passing yards line.

Now, for our biggest busts of the week: DeSean Jackson and the Indianapolis Colts.

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson

Jackson was on a limited snap count during the game, but coach Pederson assured the media his snaps would increase each week—that would have been nice to know ahead of time. At any rate, the Washington Football Team kept Jackson locked down. Credit to Washington’s defense for penetrating the Eagles decimated offensive line and to their offense for scoring 27 unanswered points in the franchise’s biggest comeback since 1955. Last, but not least, we had the major upset of the week: the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars triumphed over Philip Rivers d the Indianapolis Colts. Is Minshew Mania real? We’ll find out in the coming weeks, but this was an ugly gambling casualty in week 1. Hopefully, not everyone went as all in as I did on the Colts.

Overall, we finished with an admirable 10-7 record for week 1. Hey, 59% ain’t too shabby. Let’s see how we fare in week 2!

· MIN +3 (+121 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): Both of these teams will be looking to make a statement after being embarrassed last week. I know that I trashed Minnesota’s secondary earlier, but Rivers is past his prime and Indianapolis has a subpar pass attack at best. The Colts could barely muster 20 points against the worst team in the NFL last week. So I will take the points with the better team. Hammer the Vikings. Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).

Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook

· GB -6 (+113 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): I was admittedly low on Green Bay coming into the season—they benefited last season from a weak schedule and won a handful of games by one score. But Rodgers is disgruntled (and who can blame him) after the bizarre draft decisions the front office made, and that appears to have lit a fire under him. He went wild in week 1, proving he’s still elite. I think that continues in week 2 against the swiss cheese secondary in Detroit. 6 points is too small of a handicap, so I’ll take the Packers over the Lions. Go Pack, Go! Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).

Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones

· BUF -5.5 (+114 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): I really like Brian Flores, but the Dolphins are still in rebuilding mode and the Bills see an opportunity to remain undefeated and start the season 2-0 in a division that’s been dominated by New England for the last two decades. Miami only put up 11 points against the Patriots defense last week and they’ll have a tougher ask against Buffalo. Give me the Bills as an under-a-touchdown favorite.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

· PHI +3 (-119 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo on the adjusted line): My beloved birds betrayed me last week, but the starting line for this is a huge overcorrection. Miles Sanders, Lane Johnson, and Derek Barnett are back, so I’ll hammer the homer pick.

Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders

· SF -6 (-104 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo on the adjusted line): San Francisco is eager to erase the memory of their ugly loss last week and prove that there is no such thing as a Super Bowl hangover. They’ll bounce back this week in a big way against New York’s “offensive genius” Adam Gase.

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

· TEN -3 / KC -2.5 teaser (-132 at DraftKings): I refuse to buy in on the Jaguars and I think the Titans are still being underappreciated on the market. Kansas City is also far and away better than the team rebuilding in Los Angeles. My only concern about these spreads is a backdoor cover, so let’s erase that by taking the two together in a 6-point teaser. You might also consider a money line parlay at worse odds (-162) if you want to play it extra safe. I’m confident enough to go with the bigger payout. Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).

Tennessee Titan QB Ryan Tannehill

Noteworthy sports-book promos this week for existing users:
· DraftKings Profit Bonus: 25% profit bonus on every week 2 game. This boost applies to player props as well, but you can only use the boost once so choose wisely. See the DraftKings Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· DraftKings 1st TD Scorer Promo: Bet on the first TD scorer and if your bet doesn’t hit but the player scores at any time in the game win your wager back. See the DraftKings Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· FanDuel Same Game Parlay $10 Credit: Place a $20+ same game parlay of 3+ legs with minimum +200 final odds and get a free $10 site credit. See the FanDuel Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· FanDuel 35+ Point Profit Bonus: Place a pre-game $50 money line wager on any team and if your team scores 35+ points, win double the winnings. See the FanDuel Sportsbook app for details and full terms.

That’s all for now. Check back this weekend for more player props on Sunday’s games!

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season so far is 10-7, hitting on 59% of his bets.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time

Hammer Time DFS
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning money on football. LET’S GOOO (win some money)!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. And remember to bet in moderation!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

TNF Bets:
I wasn’t able to finish this article by opening night, but for record-keeping, I hit on 4 of my 5 Thursday night football picks, including a same game 3-leg parlay! Here’s how it played out:
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score first (+550 at DraftKings)—missed
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score (-125 at DraftKings)—hit!
· KC -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings) —hit!
· Same Game Parlay: 3-legs (+216 at FanDuel)—hit!
Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score
KC money line
Alternate over 49.5 total points
· Will Fuller over 63.5 yards (-130 at DraftKings)—hit!

Let’s dive into the remaining picks for Week 1!


CHI money line (+120 on FanDuel): Let’s be honest: Mitchell Trubisky is a bust and I fully expect Nick Foles (#bdn) to take over before Chicago’s BYE week. However, Mitch has owned the Lions so far in his short career. Detroit’s strength is the offensive side of the ball, but Kenny Golladay is doubtful and we don’t know how the muddy backfield will shake up. Take the plus money and hammer the Bears. Sorry, https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

SEA -2.5 (-110 on DraftKings) and over 49 total points (-110 on DraftKings): The odds makers in Vegas would have us believe that the Seahawks would only be favored by 5.5 points on a neutral field. I’m not buying that. This Seahawks squad, which was 11-5 last season and one play away from being a top seed in the playoffs, is not being given the respect it deserves. Give me the Seahawks covering by less than a field goal. As a bonus, I’ll also take the over because I love these high-powered offenses. #letrusscook

PIT -5.5 (-115 on FanDuel): The Pittsburgh Steelers went 8-8 last season with guys named Mason Rudolph and “Duck” Hodges under center. New York’s defense is still a weak spot so expect a healthy Big Ben and James Connor to take advantage. The Steelers may have the top defense in the league in 2020, so I trust them to keep Saquon Barkley in check and “Danny Dimes” well in check. Give me the Steelers, Vegas; you can have the points.

GB +2.5 (-109 on DraftKings): The front office lit a fire under Aaron Rodgers when they drafted his heir apparent in the 2020 NFL Draft. Rodgers may have limited weapons but that didn’t stop him last season. Green Bay’s 2019 schedule was on the softer side, but we can’t discount the fact that the Packers compiled 13 wins, earned the 2nd seed, and swept Minnesota last season. The Vikings lost some key players on defense in the off-season, so I expect the Packers offense to handily control this game. The books are giving the Vikings an edge for being at home, but why? Fans are not allowed at U.S. Bank Stadium for at least the first two games, which eliminates any “home-field advantage” in my mind. I’ll take a hungry Rodgers with something to prove and the points, please.


IND -2.5/PIT +0.5 (-130 at FanDuel): The Jaguars are tanking for Trevor—no matter how hard they try to deny it. The organization is an utter mess, with Tony Khan, the senior VP of football administration, getting into Twitter spats with players. Take it from former players, such as Jalen Ramsey, Yannick Ngakoue, and Leonard Fournette, who managed to force themselves out of the toxic locker room: this is not an organization that wants to win right now. 8.5 is too much to comfortably lay in a season opener—especially one that follows the most uncertain off-season in NFL history—against a divisional opponent, however, so I’ll take the Colts in a teaser with the bonus 6 points. It’s hard to choose who to pair them with, but I’ll go with the Steelers.

Special Promo (does not count towards my picks record):
· LAR spread over DAL (-110 at FanDuel): FanDuel Sports book is currently running another “spread the love” promotion: they’re moving the spread by 1 point in favor of the Rams for every 5,000 fans who bet on L.A. using the promo (everyone will benefit from the final point spread). At the time of this writing, the spread is already +11. These promotions are locks, so make sure you take full advantage of the max $50 wager!

Player Props:

BUF WR Stefon Diggs

· Diggs over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel): After trading away Jamal Adams, the New York Jets have arguably the worst secondary in the league. Expect Josh Allen to use his newest toy early to prove he can in fact throw deep. It just takes one play…
· DeSean Jackson to score (+200 at FanDuel): The Eagles will be missing Alshon Jeffrey on Sunday and rookie Jalen Reagor may be on a limited snap count, making Jackson a centerpiece of the Eagles aerial attack. Jackson tends to go off on former teams and on opening day (more on that later). Expect fireworks.
· Jared Goff over 285.5 passing yards (+100 at FanDuel): I’m not sold on the Rams running back by committee approach and, as much as I hate to admit it, Dallas should have a dangerous offense this season. That equates to Goff airing it out early and often. I like Cooper Kupp and the ever-underrated “Bobby Trees” against the Cowboys secondary so I’ll lean towards the over here.
· Todd Gurley over 57.5 yards (-110 at FanDuel): Sure, Todd Gurley has the knees of an 84-year-old grandma, but the Falcons don’t really have another back capable of producing on the ground. His arthritic knee will undoubtedly cap his upside this season, but he should be fresh entering Week 1. Hammer him while you can.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

· Josh Jacobs over 77.5 (-110 on FanDuel): The Panthers had the worst run defense in 2019 and they are now without Dontari Poe, who is now with the Cowboys, and Luke Kuechly, who retired in January. Josh Jacobs is going to E-A-T. Feed the man.
· Aaron Jones to score (+108 on DraftKings) and Aaron Jones over 64.5 yards (-112 on DraftKings): I mentioned earlier that I liked the Packers with the points because of Minnesota’s deteriorating defense. The Vikings traded for Yannick Ngakoue to replace the departed Everson Griffen, but the interior line is going to be as soft as pudding without Linval Joseph. The Packers have made their plans to run first painfully clear in the off-season and with A.J. Dillon losing the backup running back job to Jamaal Williams (for now), Jones’ path to success is clear.

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson

***BEST BET ALERT*** DeSean Jackson over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel): DeSean Jackson and revenge games go together like peanut butter and jelly. And just like peanut butter, Jackson can be lethal to some. He can easily hit this mark on a single play. The stats speak for themselves:
He has averaged a whopping 17.4 yards per reception in his career—best in the NFL among active players—and has led the league in that category 4 times in his career: 2018 (18.9), 2016 (17.9), 2014 (20.9), and 2010 (22.5). He is also one of just 6 wide receivers in NFL history averaging at least 17 yards per reception while compiling 10,000 or more total yards.
He has 37 career games with 100-plus receiving yards, behind only Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown.
He has 31 career 50-plus yard touchdowns, which ranks second in NFL history (five short of Jerry Rice).
He is also the third-oldest player in NFL history to record multiple 50-plus yards receiving touchdowns in a single game.
He surpassed Jerry Rice in 2019 for the most 60-plus yard touchdowns in NFL history with 24.
He has recorded 6 opening day games with 100-plus receiving yards—tied with Michael Irvin for most in NFL history.
With Alshon Jeffrey ruled out nursing a never-ending foot injury and rookie Jalen Reagor active but recovering from a shoulder injury just weeks ago, Jackson is primed for another breakout opening day performance against an NFC East rival and former club. He’s looked great in camp so far and coming off a season in which he missed 15 games, he should have fresh legs. Most importantly, he’ll be hungry. Hammer. The. Over.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time (NFL Betting)

Hammer Time
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Quick note from the editor. In the past I’ve found complete transparency to the reader to be the best course of action. Pulling the curtain aside a moment, Anthony reached out and inquired about getting his NFL betting content published and seen! We were happy to oblige here at Cheat Sheet! Thank you Anthony and we look forward to long prosperous NFL season together.

Welcome to the first DFSCheatSheet edition of Hammer Time! Each week, I’ll share my best bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning money on football. Today, we’ll be looking at some of my favorite season-long bets, including team win totals, team futures, and player props. Before we dive in, let me offer a few pieces of general sports betting advice….

Tip #1: Look for value, not chalk. You’re going to be tempted to bet the house on that BAL or KC over 11.5 wins. Don’t. That doesn’t mean that I don’t expect the Ravens or Chiefs to get to 12 wins. But there’s simply very little value to be found here. The odds makers know everyone loves Patty Mahomes, the new half-billion-dollar face of the NFL, and Lamar “action” Jackson. They’ll use their popularity to lure you into making high risk, low reward bets. Don’t take the bait. God forbid Mahomes catches COVID-19 and is forced to quarantine or Jackson (*knocks on wood*) suffers a torn ACL. Anything can happen—especially in these uncertain times.

Tip #2: There’s no such thing as being injury-prone… but players can be prone to injuries. Medical experts agree there is no evidence to suggest that one player is more likely to get injured than another. Despite this, it seems as though some can’t stay out of the blue medical tent. Translation: be wary of any player with an injury history. Also, stay away from bets on players with specific injury histories (think Todd Gurley’s arthritic knees), as those injuries are more likely to re-occur.

Tip #3: Shop around. Legalized gambling in many states has given rise to several competing sports books. Take advantage of any promotions, odds boosts, and line discrepancies.

Tip #4: Less is more. They say “the house always wins” for a reason. The odds makers setting the lines are experts. Never bet an amount of money that makes you uneasy. A good rule is to bet half of what you’re willing to lose. It’s better to win less than to lose more!

Now with that out of the way, let’s dig in these best bets!

Best Bets: Win Totals

JAC under 5 (-118)

Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars are a far cry from the 2017 squad that almost won the AFC Championship. You might even say they’ve even supplanted the Miami Dolphins as the textbook definition of “tanking.” The mishandling of contracts and personnel—see the Jalen Ramsey trade, the ugly Twitter exchange between executive Tony Khan and former DL Yannick Ngakoue, and the cutting of Leonard Fournette—reveals just how toxic the culture has become in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC South has become increasingly competitive: the Houston Texans remain the division favorite despite the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and the Tennessee Titans will remain serious contenders after their deep postseason run last season. In Indianapolis, gunslinger Philip Rivers hopes to find the Fountain of Youth behind the best line in the league. Would it really surprise anyone if the Jags went winless in their own division? The Jaguars also face the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengal’s, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, and Chicago Bears. I’m in on Minshew Mania, but no mullet or mustache—no matter how glorious—can muster 5 wins with this roster and schedule. HAMMER the under.

WAS under 5 (+100)

Washington Football Team

From workplace misconduct scandals to controversy over the club’s former nickname, there has been a lot of ugliness surrounding the Washington franchise this off-season. The club plays the Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengal’s, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Carolina Panthers this season. That’s in addition to the Philadelphia Eagles, the reigning NFC East division champs, the Dallas Cowboys, a potential Super Bowl sleeper, and the New York Giants, who always seem to have Washington’s number. “Riverboat” Ron Rivera was an excellent hire, but it takes time to right a ship—especially one that’s capsized.

CIN under 6 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals

It may surprise you to learn that despite having the #1 overall pick this off-season, the Cincinnati Bengal’s are not devoid of talent. Joe Burrow is rookie quarterback but he’s coming off the best statistical season in NCAA history and he has a deep group of receivers plus Joe Mixon, who Bill Belichick believes to be the best running back in the league. Unfortunately, the Bengal’s are also in one of the most competitive division in the NFL, playing the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns twice. Outside the division, they face the Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Washington Football Team, New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, and Houston Texans. That’s a big ask of a rookie quarterback in a challenging off-season. They have a shot against several fellow basement dwellers but good luck finding 6 wins. So, it’s Hammer Time.

TEN over 8.5 (-110)

Tennessee Titans

The Titans playoff run (pun intended) only ended because not even Derrick Henry could keep future Hall of Fame quarterback Patrick Mahomes off the field long enough in the AFC Championship game. Their non-division schedule looks like this: Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengal’s, Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, and Green Back Packers. A split with the Colts and Texans and a sweep of the Jaguars would put them at 4-2, just about halfway to their win total. The Bengal’s and Lions should push them to 6, leaving just 3 more wins. I think they get them. I’d also consider betting them to win the division outright depending on the juice.

Best Bets: Win Totals

PIT to Make Playoffs (-134)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger underwent season-ending surgery last year to reattach three torn flexor tendons in his right elbow. Not only is he healthy, but the pain he’s apparently been playing through his entire career has dissipated. Juju Smith-Schuster, James Connor, rising star Diontae Johnson, and the rest of the offense will benefit from his return. The Steelers, led by the tandem of “Duck” Hodges and Mason Rudolph, would have made the playoffs last season under the new format. Let that sink in for a moment… and then head to your preferred sports book app to bet big on Big Ben leading the Steelers back to the playoffs.

SEA to Make the Playoffs (-128)

Seattle Seahawks

Under head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, the Seattle Seahawks have had double-digit winning records in 7 of the last 8 years. Last season, they were a yard away from claiming a top seed in the NFC playoffs when they lose a thriller to their rivals and eventual NFC Super Bowl representatives, the San Francisco 49ers. The NFC West is as competitive as any other division in the NFL today, but it’s difficult to ignore that kind of sustained success. With the new payoff format allowing a 7th team into the postseason, it’s easy to imagine that the trend will continue. You might also want to consider sprinkling some money on the Seahawks over 9 wins. Shop around for the best odds.

Best Bets: Player Prop Futures

Miles Sanders over 1,005.5 rushing yards (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders got off to a rough start in his rookie campaign last year. He failed to see the holes and was outplayed by Jordan Howard early on. But somewhere along the way, everything clicked. He has the potential to be a top-5 RB this year. Skeptical? Look at his fantasy points in the last 8 games. Head coach Doug Pederson has had a tendency to use the dreaded running back by committee approach, but he has never had a back this talented before. Everyone has been gushing about Sanders been crushing it in camp. I think he also crushes this 1,005.5 rushing yard mark, which is not even 200 yards more than his final numbers last season.

Baker Mayfield over 23.5 passing TDs (-112)

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield

The Cleveland Browns have been under-the-radar this off-season after a disappointing campaign in 2019 under former head coach Freddie Kitchens. But rest assured, this team will be better than it was last year, and I have no doubt that a humbled Baker is eager to prove his arm is better than his acting. Throwing 24 touchdowns really isn’t a lot to ask when you consider the weapons he will be working with: Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, and Austin Hooper. Compound that talent with the addition of new head coach Kevin Stefanski and I think Baker will get at least 2 more than last year (22). Hammer, hammer, hammer.

Sam Darnold over 22.5 passing TDs (-108)

New York Jets QB Sam Darnold

Far be it from me to heap praise on anyone playing for Adam Gase, aka the fantasy dream-killer, but Sam Darnold threw 19 touchdown passes while playing in just 13 games in 2019. This is a make or break year for the former 1st round pick. If he makes even a slight improvement in his development and stays healthy, he should surpass his numbers from last season. Hey, you can’t catch mononucleosis twice, right?

Carson Wentz over 3,899.5 passing yards (-112)

Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz

Call me an Eagles homer, but I love Carson Wentz over 3,899.5 passing yards (-112). He threw for over 4,000 yards last season despite not having a single receiver over 400 yards and should have more explosive weapons this year with rookie Jalen Reagor and a healthy DeSean Jackson in his arsenal this year. His desire to get that extra yard on every play puts him at a higher risk of injury, making this a dodgy play but there’s too much upside here. And so we hammer.

Check back throughout the season for more best bets!

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1