NBA GPP Core Plays – 2/26/20

NBA GPP Core Plays
2/26/20
By Matt Shepardson – @DFS_ShepSheet

NBA GPP Core Plays

 

 

*Draftkings Salaries are listed first.  Fanduel Salaries are listed second.  Our Discord Chat is 100% FREE Click here to join! 

Last night was a great night. We had some killer information come out of our articles. I had a few of the top 10 best Pt/$ plays of the night listed in my article. Danny Green was in mine and also in the Value Street article. Green was the best Pt/$ play of the night hitting over 10x value. The fire is lit, so let’s throw some more gasoline on it tonight.

We got a 9 game slate tonight. Kemba Walker is out yet again for BOS and Lamarcus Aldridge has been ruled Out for the Spurs. Ben Simmons also remains out. Andre Drummond was just ruled out as I have been typing this up. Jimmy Butler has missed the last couple games but he is currently listed as probable for tonight’s game. We just received the news of Trae Young being questionable tonight. That’s some big news we will need to keep an eye on moving closer to lock.

Malik Monk was just suspended indefinitely for violating drug policy.

Guards

Shabazz Napier (4,700) (4,300) – Napier is coming off a huge game 2 nights ago where he went off for 47 fpts in 36 minutes. This was the most minutes he seen since being traded to WAS. WAS is facing BKN tonight. The Nets are allowing the 3rd most fpts to PGs on the season. I currently have Napier projected to play 26 minutes and score 30 fpts which is over 6.5x value on both sites. Since joining the Wizards Napier’s 3pt FG% is 41%. Brooklyn is allowing the 6th most 3pt attempts to PGs.

Landry Shamet (4,100) (4,000) – Beverly was initially who was standing out to me, but it was due to his DK price tag of 3,900. Due to that price he should see some ownership on DK. I like Shamet more. Shamet is $500 cheaper on FD and only $200 more on DK. Shamet is averaging over 25 minutes/gm. He isn’t the most productive Fpt/min player. Averaging .77 over the last 5 games, but I like his matchup tonight. Shamet is playing from the SG position 77% of the time. PHX is allowing the 3rd most Fpts in the league to SG. Now one would think… “Well why not Lou Will then?”.. Lou Williams primarily plays off the bench and is playing from the PG position 65% of the time and only 34% at the SG position. It is common for people to assume that PHX is terrible vs Guards in general. But they are actually ranked 13th in the league to PGs. Putting Beverly in a tough matchup. Shamet is also considered a Shooting Wing. PHX is allowing the 7th most fpts to this archetype. Now Beverly is considered a Distributer. PHX is allowing the 10th least amount of Fpts to Distributers. So everything is pointing to Beverly being bad chalk on DK to me. I like Shamet as a low owned GPP option in a good spot.

Caris Levert (7,500) (6,500) – Levert has been killing it recently. Due to Kyrie ruled out for the rest of the season. Dinwiddie and Levert have been BKNs starting front court. Since the All Star Break. Levert has scored over 35 fpts in all 3 games. 2 games he faced teams who typically hold guards to low scoring. Scoring 36 fpts vs ORL and 40 fpts vs PHI. Tonight he gets a nice matchup vs WAS who are allowing the 11th most fpts to SGs and the 3rd most to SF. Levert’s been playing from the SG position 70% of the time and 24% from the SF position. His potential individual matchup tonight is Beal. Beal is a terrible defender with a -3.4 DRPM. WAS is also allowing the leagues most real points scored and 3 point attempts to the SG position. As well as, the 5th most assists and the 12th most steals. BKN is also in a paced up matchup and are 1.5 pt underdogs. I do also like Dinwiddie in this matchup, but since the break Levert has been getting more points than Dinwiddie, so why pay more money for less points. So, lets go over Dinwiddie….

Spencer Dinwiddie (8,000) (7,100) – Not much more money than Levert. The 6x target score is only 3 points higher than Leverts is. DVP wise Dinwiddie does have the better matchup. Even though I have Dinwiddie playing the SG position more than the PG, The games that Kyrie has played has altered this. With Kyrie out, Dinwiddie primarily plays from the PG position. WAS is allowing the 4th most fpts to PGs on the year. Individual matchup wise Levert is in the better spot. Dinwiddies matchup is currently projected to be Napier who has a -.65 DRPM. Which isn’t good, but its significantly better than Beals -3.4. I think it’s a coin flip between these 2, both solid options in good spots. I personally would have more shares of Levert just because he has had the hotter hand recently.

Darius Garland (4,700) (4,600) – CLE is coming off an impressive win over MIA. We seen some great performances out of Garland and Kevin Porter in that game. Garland scored 36 fpts. Garland did play 40 minutes in this overtime victory. But the game before that, CLE faced MIA and Garland put up 25 fpts. Coming off a confidence boosting win and facing a PHI team without Simmons. I’m liking Garland for a solid GPP option. PHI’s DVP gets thrown out the window here with Simmons out. So I’m strictly looking at Garlands individual matchup. Right now that is projected to be Shake Milton. Milton has a -1.2 DRPM. Last game Garland faced PHI he was able to score 25 fpts, Ben Simmons did play this game. Sexton has a tough matchup with JRich, JRich has a DRPM of +1.00 and the 6ers are allowing the 13th least amount of fpts to SG on the year. This leads me to believe that it will open up more opportunity for Garland to attack Simmons replacement, Milton.

One Thing I noticed when looking into Teague when the Young news dropped…. In the 2 games that Young has missed since Teague has joined the Hawks. He hasn’t broke over 20 fpts. Granted, both games were vs very tough defensive teams, BOS and LAC. Tonight he also has a tough matchup vs ORL who are ranked 12th in DVP to PG. Just something to keep in mind if Trae does get ruled out. I would imagine if Young is out you would see Teague become chalk, and if he puts up another dud like the last 2 games Young has sat and you fade him, you just put yourself ahead of everyone who fell for the chalk.

Cody Martin (3,100) (3,700) – As typing this article, Malik Monk has been suspended indefinitely for violating the leagues anti-drug policy. Monk has been seeing a good chunk of minutes recently. I think Cody Martin will see a good portion of them. This could also get Nicolas Batum back in the rotation for CHA, I wouldn’t roster Batum unless we get some sort of confirmed news that he will be back in the rotation.

Other guards I like (Patty Mills, James Harden, Devonte’ Graham, Ricky Rubio)

Forwards

Josh Jackson (4,500) (3,500) – I am locking Jackson in on FD, no question about it. Still at bare minimum tag after 3 straight games going over 8x!! Plus Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke and Kyle Anderson are all out!! What is FD thinking? I also like him on DK. In the last 3 games he has scored close to 6x at this price tag and that was when Clarke was still in. Clarke did get hurt last game. But with Clarke seeing no minutes tonight. 30 fpts isn’t out of the question for Jackson here. I’m not even seeing this guy carrying ownership either. If he gets slept on tonight by the industry your all getting a steal. Facing a HOU steal allowing the 13th most fpts to SF and the 2nd most fpts to PF. With MEM missing a couple PFs Jackson could play a little more from the 4 tonight. He has mostly been playing from the SF position at 85% but the remaining 15% he has been running the PF spot. I mentioned Jackson in my article the last time MEM played and he went off for 8x. Don’t miss out on him again tonight. Especially if he is still going to be so low owned.

Demarre Carrol (3,000) (3,500) – Eric Gordon has been listed out, Carrol just made his debut with the Rockets 2 games ago. He seen 13 minutes one game and 14 the next. Averaging roughly .90 fpts/min. I think if he sees some of the minutes Gordon was getting he could crush this bare minimum price tag. Gordon has been playing 35% at the SF position. Carrol has played 100% from the SF position. I would love to see Carrol get an expanded role and steal some of House or McLemore’s minutes. Carroll is a total punt play. I wouldn’t bank on him to have a huge night. A solid option to put in your pool if your entering multiple lineups.

Robert Covington (6,200) (6,400) – Since joining the Rockets, Covington has been a solid 30 fpt producer night in and night out. Hou is facing a MEM team that is short handed in their backcourt, missing Jaren Jackson and Brandon Clarke. HOU is a fast paced playing team. I don’t see Jonas Valanciunas holding up well in this game. I think this will make MEM run small ball more and Covington be able to crash the boards and get a lot of offensive rebounds and putbacks. Especially if Harden’s 3pt shot is off and opening up tons of boards for the “big” men downlow.

Dario Saric is drawing the start tonight for Kelly Oubre who has been ruled out. Saric is carrying one of the top ownerships of the night, but I do not like his matchup. The Clippers are allowing the 13th fewest fpts to the PF position. I think Saric has “BAD CHALK” tattooed on his forehead tonight. I will be completely fading him. I think Baynes is a much better option, even with Saric getting the start.

Other forwards I like … (Cameron Johnson, Evan Fournier, De’Andre Hunter, Jae Crowder, Jarret Allen, Aaron Gordon)

Center

Jakob Poeltl (3,200) (4,000) – Poeltl has proven that when Aldridge is out he has the ability to perform. Tonight he has a tougher matchup facing the unicorn who has a pretty good DRPM. DAL is allowing the 12th most fpts to C. I think on DK he is a solid play since you can play another C and he is $800 cheaper. On FD he is still in play because 30 fpts isn’t out of reach for him in this matchup, But being held to one C spot on FD, you might want to consider your other options.

Joel Embiid (10,500) (10,200) – Simmons is out again. The past two games Simmons has sat, Embiid has shown he is the best big man in the game. I did like Embiid a little more before Drummond got ruled out since we all know Drummond plays absolutely no defense. Now he has a matchup with Tristan Thompson who is a much better defender than Drummond. CLE is still allowing the 11th most fpts to C on the year. Embiid is coming off a 80 fpt performance. In the last 5 games he has hit over 65 fpts 3 times.

Nikola Vucevic (9,500) (9,300) – I think Vucevic is just as good of an option tonight as Embiid. Embiid just put up 80 on ATL last game. I don’t see Vuc putting up 80, But 60 is definitely in reach. ATL is allowing the 2nd most fpts to C’s on the year. Allowing the most real points in the league to the C position. ORL is ranked the best in the league in Defensive Rebounds and ATL is allowing the 8th most total rebounds in the league to C. All pointing to a great night for Vuvevic. I also like Mo Bamba here, the game style might fit Bamba a little better than it does Vuc, also if ORL can get a good size lead Bamba may get some extra run. Last time Bamba played ATL he scored 22 fpts in 14 minutes. Great punt option if you want a value Center and play some other High salary guys tonight.

Other Centers I like …. (Mitchell Robinson, Aaron Baynes, Mo Bamba)