NBA GPP Core Plays – 2/25/20

NBA GPP Core Plays
2/25/20
By Matt Shepardson – @DFS_ShepSheet

NBA GPP CORE PLAYS

 

 

*Draftkings Salaries are listed first. Fanduel Salaries are listed second

Last night was a crazy one. We had some incredibly high scores. First place in the GPPs I was in was 464 fpts on FD.

We have changed my articles name from “Stars and Scrubs” to “GPP Core Plays”.
The reason behind the change was because when I write my articles, I want to try to give you all some great plays to cash in big. I also figured, most daily NBA players are well aware of the chalk plays and this far in the season pretty much know the players who fill in for inactive teammates.

I wish you all the best of luck and I hope you all are finding my writeups to be useful and help you secure some bags. Im always available on discord, hop into our FREE Discord Chat HERE

Guards

Lonzo Ball (7,000) (6,500) – Tonight Ball faces his former team, this will be the second time he is facing them. They will be playing in LA again tonight. Last meeting Ball put up 37 FD pts. He shot the 3 ball pretty poorly this game going 2 for 7 which is 28%. In the last 5 games he has 3 games where he has shot the 3 at 60%. The Lakers are allowing the 7th most 3 pt attempts in the league. The Lakers are also allowing the 10th most real points scored to PGs. LAL are also allowing the 6th most fpts to the PG position. Every other position the Lakers defend very well. Ranked in the top 10 DVP to every other position. If the Lakers hold the other positions off, this leaves it open for Ball to get some extra usage. Vegas currently has the spread at 8 in favor of LA. Ball is priced kind of high considering the matchup and he hasn’t hit over 40 fpts since 2/02.

Buddy Hield (6,600) (5,800) – Facing the Warriors who have been terrible at defending pretty much every position, I really like the spot Hield is in. Hield is coming off a very poor performance last game only scoring 12 fpts in 15 minutes, but they were facing a tough defensive team in the Clippers. I expect Hield to have a bounce back game here and I’m currently seeing him carrying no ownership. Fox is the King carrying most of the ownership tonight. We all know Hield has the capability of getting hot and a ceiling of 40 fpts. On FD he is a solid option. Still in play on DK, but not as safe considering he is $800 more.

Kris Middleton (7,700) (7,200) – Middleton turned it up last night. Giannis was pretty terrible last night turning the ball over 8 times and only scoring 40 fpts. Middleton definitely stepped it up. Tonight MIL actually has a tougher matchup facing the Raptors who are ranked 2nd in DEF rating. Giannis will most likely draw Siakam’s defense. I think Siakam may be the only Raptor that can slow Giannis down. Middleton has the best matchup out of all the Bucks, playing from the SF position 80% of the time and the Raptors allowing the 2nd most fpts to the SF position. Middleton made it into the perfect lineup last night. I wouldn’t doubt it if he continues the streak. He is listed as a SF on DK but SG on FD which is why I listed him in the Guards category.

Ryan Arcidiacono (3,300) (3,600) – Over the last 7 games, Arcidiacono is averaging a little over 20 minutes per game. Tonight the Bulls face the OKC Thunder and the Bulls are favored by 7 points. I’m currently seeing Ryan projected to start at the SF position where he would draw the defense of Lugentz Dort. Arcidiacono mostly plays from the PG position which is the only position the Thunder aren’t ranked in the Top 10 DVP wise. They are allowing the 9th most Fpts to Pgs on the year. With the players listed out Arcidiacono gets a 5% usg bump from 12 to 17%. A cheap option to get you to fit some studs in your lineup tonight.

I want to point one thing out about Marcus Smart… Kemba Walker is out tonight and Smart usually steps in as the starting PG for BOS when Walker sits. They are facing POR who are ranked dead last, allowing the most fpts in the league to PG. But, POR is without Lillard for the 3rd straight game. The last 2 games POR hasn’t allowed over 40 fpts scored between all PGS. They faced DET and NOP. They held Ball to 34 fpts and Derrick Rose to 20. Something to be cautious of if you want to play Smart tonight.

Other Guard I Like tonight are … (Danny Green, Malik Monk, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Derrick Rose)

Forwards

Jayson Tatum (8,800) (8,800) – Tatum is coming off 3 straight games scoring over 50+ Fpts. BOS is without Walker again tonight. Like I mentioned about POR not really allowing PGs to score many Fpts vs them since Lillard has been out. Last game vs DET, POR allowed 91 fpts scored between the PFs. Lebron also tweeted that Tatum is a “problem”. This can only boost your confidence when the best player in the game compliments you like that. I am seeing Tatum currently projected to carry roughly 15% ownership on both sites. 15% wont make you or break you. My algorithm has him ranked as the highest Forward on the slate, tied with Lebron James. My projection model has him projected at 57 fpts. Which is 6.57x value on both sites.

Danillo Gallinari (6,100) (5,700) – CHI is allowoing the most fpts to the PF position, Gallo played the PF spot 98% of the time. CP3 and SGA both have tough matchups tonight where CHI is ranked 1st and 3rd in the league vs PG & SG. I think OKC will rely on Gallo and Adams a lot tonight. Gallo is rated as the 2nd highest forward in my algorithm. I have him projected right at 6x value on DK and at 6.4x value on FD.

Daniel Theis (4,900) (5,000) – Theis has really impressed me lately. I have finally given up hope for Kanter to get more minutes. Theis has shown me he deserves the playing time. He isn’t the most consistent player out there, but has shown us he can have those 40 fpt nights. Last time Theis faced POR he scored 33 fpts in 27 minutes. He has been getting a little more run lately. I don’t see why he cant get over 30 fpts tonight which is 6x value.

Other Forwards I like (T.J Warren, Doug McDermott, Will Barton, Harrison Barnes, Domantis Sabonis)

Center

Myles Turner (5,000) (5,800)—I would only play Turner on DK where he is $800 cheaper and you have the ability to play another C. CHA is allowing the 4th most fpts in the league to Cs. Turner is averaging right around 30 mins/gm and .92 fpt/min. On Draftkings this should put him right around 6x value. On FD 6x value is a little trickier to obtain, but not impossible. Turner has faced the Hornets twice this season. One game he scored 35 fpts and the other game he scored 43. The Double Double opportunity is there for him tonight.

Steven Adams (6,700) (6,500) – Adams has been a beast lately, coming off a 41 and 56 fpt performances the last 2 games. With CHI ranked in the bottom 10 in DVP to C, Adams should be in store for another great game tonight. I currently have him projected at 41 fpts which is over 6x value on both sites. On FD, I would roll with Adams over Turner tonight. On DK, I’m probably playing both. I’ll have Turner in some Fanduel lines, but slightly more exposure to Adams.

Dragan Bender (3,000) (3,600) – I’m listing Bender in the Center category simply because Marqueese Chriss is listed as questionable. If Chriss sits tonight Bender is a great value play in the PF spot on FD. He seen 20 minutes in his debut with the Warriors and should be in the regular rotation moving forward.

Other Centers I like …. (Nikola Jokic, Harry Giles)

NBA Stars & Scrubs – 2/21/20

NBA Stars & Scrubs
2/21/20
By DFS Shepsheat

 

 

*Draftkings Salaries are listed first, Fanduel Salaries are listed second.

Guards

Anfernee Simons (3,500) (4,800) – Damian Lillard has been ruled out for the next few games. I’m really surprised Draftkings didn’t increase Simons price. At $3,500 he is an absolute steal. He has 30 fpt upside all day long. Last game out back on Feb 12th, Simons put up 34.75 pts in 28 minutes vs MEM. This was with Lillard in. Lillard has missed 2 games this season where Simons got some extra run. Which was back on November, 19th and the 21st. On the 19th, The Blazers played the Pelicans. Same matchup they have tonight. Simons put up 24.3 DK fpts in 36 minutes. The next game on the 21st they played MIL, a very tough matchup. Simons didn’t fair too well in this matchup only playing 17 minutes and accumulating 12 DK pts. Given the matchup and his pricetag on DK, Simons is a safe lock in Cash games. On Fanduel he is priced significantly higher where value may be a reach, but not impossible. Vegas does currently have this game as the highest over/under on the slate. The Blazers are in a paced up matchup and the Pelicans are also allowing the 6th most fpts to PGs and the 8th most fpts to SG. Simons is listed as a Combo Guard, The Pelicans are allowing the 2nd most fpts in the league to CG.

C.J. McCollum (6,600) (6,900) – Like mentioned above, Lillard is ruled out. McCollum is averaging 35 Dk pts and 34 FD pts on the year. Which is pretty much right around 5x value at his price tag. With Lillard out, paced up, and facing a Pelicans team ranked in the bottom 10 DVP and DEF rating wise… I don’t see how McCollum can not hit value here. McCollum also is averaging 7 3pt Att/gm. The Pelicans are allowing the 5th most 3’s per game. With Lillard out, I expect McCollum to be letting them fly tonight.

Tyus Jones (3,300) (3,900) – This MEM guard position is so tough to judge, One night its Jones you want, the next its Morant. Well last night it was a Jones and a Melton night. Melton was the top value play of the night getting 41 fpts and hitting 10.45x value. Jones wasn’t far behind hitting 8.5x value. Tonight MEM has a tougher matchup facing the Lakers who have been a pretty solid team all year. They are currently ranked the 4th best at DEF rating in the league. The only position they are ranked outside the top 10 DVP wise is to the PG position where they are allowing the 7th most fpts. The reason I would go with Jones over Melton tonight is simply because Jones is 100% PG. Melton only plays the PG position 23% of the time and 77% at the SG positon where the Lakers are allowing the 10th least amount of Fpts. Now if your wondering why wouldn’t I pick Morant then? Well the Lakers are 11 Point favorites in this game which I could see them winning by even more. Giving the bench players more run. I would much rather pay for a cheap price tag in a potential blowout than for an inconsistent Morant.

Other Guard I Like tonight are … (Kyle Lowry, Malik Beasley, Ish Smith, Marcus Smart, Lonzo Ball)

I am Fading both Donovan Mitchel and D’Angelo Russell tonight.
I am seeing both projected as the 3rd and 4th highest owned guards on the slate. Now Mike Conley has already been ruled out for tonights game, this would give Mitchell a boost in usage, but this also puts Mitchell in role to play more from the PG position than at SG. The spurs are allowing the 10th least amount of fpts to the PG position.
De’Angelo Russel is facing a BOS defense who are no slouch, especially when it comes to guarding Guards where they are ranked 4th to PG and 7th to SG. Also with Kemba being ruled out this puts Smart on Russel and Smart is one of the best defensive guards in the league.

Forwards

Jayson Tatum (7,800) (8,700) – Kemba Walker is ruled out tonight. Last game Kemba was out (2/5/20) Tatum put up 62 DK fpts vs ORL. The last 4 games Walker has missed, Tatums weakest performance was 40.3 DK fpts vs PHI. Tonight he gets a great matchup facing a MIN team that is allowing the 8th most fpts to the PF position. Tatum is currently projected to be the 2nd highest owned Forward of the night..

Domantis Sabonis (9,600) (7,700) – I think Sabonis is only in play on FD. With a 2k price difference, he is just way to expensive for me on DK. Facing a Knicks team allowing the 2nd most fpts to PF and the 13th most to Cs. Sabonis is in a great matchup here. He is averaging 41.4 FD fpts/gm. Which is more than 5x value at this price tag. In a matchup vs the Knicks he should be able to top his average and get you 6x value. He will also be much lower owned than Tatum, so if your looking for a good pivot. Sabonis is the guy.

Aaron Gordon (7,300) (6,900) – Now we all seen Gordon get robbed by the NBA for a second time in the Slam Dunk contest this past weekend. I think Gordon will have a chip on his shoulder and play some real aggressive ball these next few games. Gordon has also been performing really well these past few games. Last game going for 54 fpts right below 8x value. He is facing a DAL team ranked in the top 10 in DVP to PFs. So he isn’t in the best spot. But he could demand the ball and want to put on a show due to what happened at the Dunk Contest. Strictly a GPP play.

Other Forwards I like… ( Mikal Bridges, Juan Hernangomez, James Johnson, Gary Trent)

I will be Fading Carmelo Anthony tonight. Carmelo Anthony is currently projected to be the highest owned Forward of the night. He is priced at 5,300 on DK and 4,900 on FD. He has only gotten over 30 fpts twice in the last 10 games. He does take roughly 15 FG att/gm. With Lillard out, this will probably get a boost. I just don’t see him going crazy over value. Out of all positions the PF is the position that the Pelicans are the toughest at. Now that Zion has been playing too, the numbers to PF have went down as well. Zion does have a positive DRPM. If I’m right and Melo has a low scoring game and he is highly owned, it could be a huge boost to your lineups.

Center

Serge Ibaka (6,500) (6,600) – Right now Center is looking like a pretty tough position tonight. With Lillard out you could go the Whiteside route, but he hasn’t really been paying off that high price tag lately. Drummond has yet to see over 30 minutes since joining the Cavs. Last game Love was even out and Drummond only seen 22 minutes. This has got me looking at Ibaka. Marc Gasol is out again. In the last 5 games Ibaka has reached over 40 fpts in 3 of them. Facing a PHX team who are allowing the 12th most fpts to Cs on the year. I think Ibaka is a really good option. PHX is allowing the 4th most OFF rebounds and allowing the 9th most total rebounds. Ibaka is averaging 8 rebounds per game. He could very easily get you a double double tonight.

Naz Reid (4,500) (4,200) –  Big KAT is ruled out tonight. KAT also missed the last game MIN played back on 2/12 vs CHA. In that game Reid seen 22 mins and posted 23 fpts. He does have a tougher matchup tonight facing the Celtics. But Reid has been a pretty solid fpt/min player. So Reid should see some valuable minutes here tonight. MIN no longer has Dieng as a backup Center, he was traded to MEM.

James Johnson (4,600) (5,200) – I am seeing Johnson currently listed to start at Center tonight for MIN. For MIN he has mostly been playing from the PF spot. Playing 95% at PF and 3% at C. He has been the better player between him and Reid. So its pretty much a coin toss between these 2. If your playing on FD. I think I’d roll with Reid due to him being 1k cheaper. But on DK, I’d roll with Johnson since their prices are so similar.

Other Centers I like …. ( Hassan Whiteside, Anthony Davis, Larry Nance)