NBA GPP Core Plays
By Matt Shepardson – @DFS_ShepSheet
NBA GPP CORE PLAYS
*Draftkings Salaries are listed first. Fanduel Salaries are listed second
Last night was a crazy one. We had some incredibly high scores. First place in the GPPs I was in was 464 fpts on FD.
We have changed my articles name from “Stars and Scrubs” to “GPP Core Plays”.
The reason behind the change was because when I write my articles, I want to try to give you all some great plays to cash in big. I also figured, most daily NBA players are well aware of the chalk plays and this far in the season pretty much know the players who fill in for inactive teammates.
I wish you all the best of luck and I hope you all are finding my writeups to be useful and help you secure some bags. Im always available on discord, hop into our FREE Discord Chat HERE
Lonzo Ball (7,000) (6,500) – Tonight Ball faces his former team, this will be the second time he is facing them. They will be playing in LA again tonight. Last meeting Ball put up 37 FD pts. He shot the 3 ball pretty poorly this game going 2 for 7 which is 28%. In the last 5 games he has 3 games where he has shot the 3 at 60%. The Lakers are allowing the 7th most 3 pt attempts in the league. The Lakers are also allowing the 10th most real points scored to PGs. LAL are also allowing the 6th most fpts to the PG position. Every other position the Lakers defend very well. Ranked in the top 10 DVP to every other position. If the Lakers hold the other positions off, this leaves it open for Ball to get some extra usage. Vegas currently has the spread at 8 in favor of LA. Ball is priced kind of high considering the matchup and he hasn’t hit over 40 fpts since 2/02.
Buddy Hield (6,600) (5,800) – Facing the Warriors who have been terrible at defending pretty much every position, I really like the spot Hield is in. Hield is coming off a very poor performance last game only scoring 12 fpts in 15 minutes, but they were facing a tough defensive team in the Clippers. I expect Hield to have a bounce back game here and I’m currently seeing him carrying no ownership. Fox is the King carrying most of the ownership tonight. We all know Hield has the capability of getting hot and a ceiling of 40 fpts. On FD he is a solid option. Still in play on DK, but not as safe considering he is $800 more.
Kris Middleton (7,700) (7,200) – Middleton turned it up last night. Giannis was pretty terrible last night turning the ball over 8 times and only scoring 40 fpts. Middleton definitely stepped it up. Tonight MIL actually has a tougher matchup facing the Raptors who are ranked 2nd in DEF rating. Giannis will most likely draw Siakam’s defense. I think Siakam may be the only Raptor that can slow Giannis down. Middleton has the best matchup out of all the Bucks, playing from the SF position 80% of the time and the Raptors allowing the 2nd most fpts to the SF position. Middleton made it into the perfect lineup last night. I wouldn’t doubt it if he continues the streak. He is listed as a SF on DK but SG on FD which is why I listed him in the Guards category.
Ryan Arcidiacono (3,300) (3,600) – Over the last 7 games, Arcidiacono is averaging a little over 20 minutes per game. Tonight the Bulls face the OKC Thunder and the Bulls are favored by 7 points. I’m currently seeing Ryan projected to start at the SF position where he would draw the defense of Lugentz Dort. Arcidiacono mostly plays from the PG position which is the only position the Thunder aren’t ranked in the Top 10 DVP wise. They are allowing the 9th most Fpts to Pgs on the year. With the players listed out Arcidiacono gets a 5% usg bump from 12 to 17%. A cheap option to get you to fit some studs in your lineup tonight.
I want to point one thing out about Marcus Smart… Kemba Walker is out tonight and Smart usually steps in as the starting PG for BOS when Walker sits. They are facing POR who are ranked dead last, allowing the most fpts in the league to PG. But, POR is without Lillard for the 3rd straight game. The last 2 games POR hasn’t allowed over 40 fpts scored between all PGS. They faced DET and NOP. They held Ball to 34 fpts and Derrick Rose to 20. Something to be cautious of if you want to play Smart tonight.
Other Guard I Like tonight are … (Danny Green, Malik Monk, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Derrick Rose)
Jayson Tatum (8,800) (8,800) – Tatum is coming off 3 straight games scoring over 50+ Fpts. BOS is without Walker again tonight. Like I mentioned about POR not really allowing PGs to score many Fpts vs them since Lillard has been out. Last game vs DET, POR allowed 91 fpts scored between the PFs. Lebron also tweeted that Tatum is a “problem”. This can only boost your confidence when the best player in the game compliments you like that. I am seeing Tatum currently projected to carry roughly 15% ownership on both sites. 15% wont make you or break you. My algorithm has him ranked as the highest Forward on the slate, tied with Lebron James. My projection model has him projected at 57 fpts. Which is 6.57x value on both sites.
Danillo Gallinari (6,100) (5,700) – CHI is allowoing the most fpts to the PF position, Gallo played the PF spot 98% of the time. CP3 and SGA both have tough matchups tonight where CHI is ranked 1st and 3rd in the league vs PG & SG. I think OKC will rely on Gallo and Adams a lot tonight. Gallo is rated as the 2nd highest forward in my algorithm. I have him projected right at 6x value on DK and at 6.4x value on FD.
Daniel Theis (4,900) (5,000) – Theis has really impressed me lately. I have finally given up hope for Kanter to get more minutes. Theis has shown me he deserves the playing time. He isn’t the most consistent player out there, but has shown us he can have those 40 fpt nights. Last time Theis faced POR he scored 33 fpts in 27 minutes. He has been getting a little more run lately. I don’t see why he cant get over 30 fpts tonight which is 6x value.
Other Forwards I like (T.J Warren, Doug McDermott, Will Barton, Harrison Barnes, Domantis Sabonis)
Myles Turner (5,000) (5,800)—I would only play Turner on DK where he is $800 cheaper and you have the ability to play another C. CHA is allowing the 4th most fpts in the league to Cs. Turner is averaging right around 30 mins/gm and .92 fpt/min. On Draftkings this should put him right around 6x value. On FD 6x value is a little trickier to obtain, but not impossible. Turner has faced the Hornets twice this season. One game he scored 35 fpts and the other game he scored 43. The Double Double opportunity is there for him tonight.
Steven Adams (6,700) (6,500) – Adams has been a beast lately, coming off a 41 and 56 fpt performances the last 2 games. With CHI ranked in the bottom 10 in DVP to C, Adams should be in store for another great game tonight. I currently have him projected at 41 fpts which is over 6x value on both sites. On FD, I would roll with Adams over Turner tonight. On DK, I’m probably playing both. I’ll have Turner in some Fanduel lines, but slightly more exposure to Adams.
Dragan Bender (3,000) (3,600) – I’m listing Bender in the Center category simply because Marqueese Chriss is listed as questionable. If Chriss sits tonight Bender is a great value play in the PF spot on FD. He seen 20 minutes in his debut with the Warriors and should be in the regular rotation moving forward.
Other Centers I like …. (Nikola Jokic, Harry Giles)