NBA Stars & Scrubs
2/24/20
By DFS SpepSheet

 

*Draftkings Salaries are listed first, Fanduel Salaries are listed second

Here we are, ready to start off another great week of NBA. We got a nice 8 game slate tonight. We already have received the news of 2 big names to be ruled out tonight, Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons. Tobias Harris is also listed as Doubtful. Should be a lot of PHI chalk tonight. I’m currently seeing Horford projected to be the highest owned player on the slate. So, lets get right to it…

Guards

Luka Doncic (10,500) (9,800) – Way to cheap on Fanduel tonight. Taking up 5% less salary than on Draftkings. With the amount of value we will have on tonight’s slate you will want some expensive players in your lineup. Doncic is one of my favorite plays on FD. Averaging 52.4 FD pts over the last 5 games. That alone is 5.3x value. He also has a juicy matchup facing the Timberwolves who are giving up 47.6 fpts to the PG position over the last 2 weeks. Over the last week MIN has only allowed 40.4 FD pts to the PG position. In the last week they faced Jamal Murray (29.2 FD pts in 35 minutes), Kemba Walker (41 FD pts in 35 mins), Doncic’s potential matchup is D’Angelo Russell who has a very poor DRPM of over -3. Over the course of the Season MIN is ranked 18th in fpts allowed to the PG position. I currently have Luka projected for 61 fpts. Which is 5.72x value on DK and 6.26x value on FD.

Mike Conley (5,300) (5,700) – After coming back from injury, Conley had a slow start when he was coming off the bench. Since returning to the starting rotation he has exceeded 6x value every game, yet his price has roughly stayed the same. He hasn’t gotten less than 30 fpts in the last 5 games he has played. Tonight he is facing the Suns who are ranked 14th in fpts allowed to PGs. Not in the best of matchups so 6x might be tough on Fanduel, a little easier on Draftkings where the target is 31.8. On FD a 6x target is 34.2.

Josh Richardson (4,800) (5,100) – Ben Simmons is already ruled out. Simmons missed a game a few days ago on the 20th vs BKN. Richardson went for 27 DK pts. Tonight Richardson has a much easier matchup facing ATL. ATL is allowing the 5th most Fpts to the SG position. BKN is ranked 2nd, allowing the 2nd least amount of fpts to SG. Richardson most likely will be carrying some ownership with Simmons listed out and the great matchup he is in.

Alec Burks (4,900) (4,000) – A much cheaper option on FD than DK. Last game Simmons missed Burks seen 30 mins of action and went for 25 fpts. On FD that’s over 6x value. FD has Burks listed as a SG and DK has him listed as a PG/SG. Since joining PHI, Burks has played from the SF position 49% of the time and the SG position 42% of the time. If Harris gets ruled out, Burks should see an even larger role due to this and a lot of people may overlook this considering he is listed as a guard on both sites. ATL is allowing the most fpts in the league to the SF position. Right now, I’m seeing Burks as one of the least owned PHI players. Could be a very solid GPP option to gain leverage.

Kendrick Nunn (5,600) (4,700) – Butler is ruled out for a second straight game. Last game, just 2 days ago MIA played CLE. With Butler out. Nunn had an explosive game, reaching 46 fpts. He seen a significant price increase on DK of $1,100. Fanduel didn’t really adjust his price. I would take advantage of this on Fanduel. Nunn is a combo guard, playing mostly from the PG position. CLE is allowing the 2nd most fpts to PGs and SGs on the year. Priced under 5k on FD is just disrespectful after just putting up over 40 fpts againt CLE just 2 days ago. I am seeing Nunn projected to be the 3rd highest owned guard at the moment.

George Hill (3,000) (3,500) – Probably my favorite GPP play of the night. Hill was out for almost a month. He returned 2 games ago. In both games since returning, he has seen 20 minutes. First game he got 15 fpts (vs DET) and last game only 9 (vs PHI). Tonight MIL is facing WAS. MIL has the 3rd best OFF rating in the league and WAS is ranked dead last in DEF rating. Vegas currently has the spread on this game at 12.5. MIL could very well be up by 20 quickly in this game and Hill could see some significant run. Was is also allowing the 4th most fpts to the PG position where Hill is playing 90% of the time. At the minimum price on both sites. Hill could be that .01% owned player to get you a takedown tonight.

Other Guard I Like tonight are … ( James Harden, Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Beverly, Furkan Korkmaz, Duncan Robinson)

Forwards

Kelly Olynyk (3,700) (3,900) – Olynyk is another GPP play I like tonight. Last game with Butler out, Olynyk played 26 minutes and went for 30 fpts. They are facing CLE again tonight. Love did miss the last game but is listed as probable tonight. I am currently seeing Olynyk as the projected starter at the PF spot. Olynyk is listed as C on FD. I’m not sure if you would wanna fill your on Center spot with him tonight. If your running multiple lineups he is a great option to get in some of them since I don’t see him being high owned at all. On Draftkings he is listed as a PF/C so you have a 5 different position slots you could put him in. Even though Olynyk is currently listed as the starting PF, He mostly plays as a Center. Bam actually plays the PF spot more than the C. CLE is allowing the 11th most fpts in the league to Centers. But they are ranked the 9th best at defending PF. Just last game Bam only scored 33 fpts and didn’t even reach 4x value. Olynyk got 30 fpts and almost reached 9x value. Bam is currently projected to be the 5th highest owned PF on the slate on FD. Olynyk is only showing 5% ownership on FD and 12% on DK.

Josh Jackson (3,300) (3,500) Jackson missed the majority of the season. He made his debut on January 29th. Since then he is averaging roughly 20 minutes per game. He is coming off 2 games where he has gotten 24 and 26 fpts. Tonight MEM faces the Clippers. Vegas currently has the spread at 9.5 pts with the Clippers as the favorite. MEM is rated as the 12th worse OFF rated team and the 16th worse DEF rated team. The Clippers are proving to be the team to beat in the West. This game could become blowout and Jackson see a little extra run. He was a solid option for PHX last year with numerous games with 30+ fpts. MEM might be easing him into rotation more and more every game. Another very solid GPP option for tonight.

Glenn Robinson (3,200) (3,800) – Projected to start. Under 4k. Facing ATL. Not much more needs to be said here. Robinson seen 20 minutes last game 2 days ago and got 21 fpts. They played MIL who are allowing the 12th least amount of fpts to SFs. If Tobias Harris does sit out tonight, Robinson should see 25 mins or so. ATL is allowing the most fpts in the league to SFs. 6x shouldn’t be an issue for him to get tonight. I’m also not seeing a ton of ownership on him either. Horford, Richardson, and Embiid are currently projected highest owned PHI players.

Kristaps Porzingis (8,100) (8,900) – This game is currently the 2nd highest over/under on the slate. MIN is without KAT for a few more weeks with a broken wrist. I just don’t see anyone on MIN that will be able to contain “the unicorn” tonight. MIN is also allowing the 6th most fpts to the PF position. Naz Reid is Porzingis’ potential matchup. Reid has a -.535 DRPM. Porzingis is coming off back to back 50+ fpt performances. Wouldn’t doubt it if he does it again tonight. Listed as a C on DK so you could play him and Embiid with one filling the UTIL spot.

Marvin Williams (3,100) (3,600) – MIL recently acquired Williams after he was bought out by CHA. Williams made his debut with MIL on 2/12 where he seen 20 minutes and accumulated 14.5 fpts. Tonight MIL is facing a WAS team ranked dead last in DEF rating. This game could get out of hand. Brook Lopez is also listed out for tonights game. Right now it looks like the ownership is going to Brooks brother Robin. MIL may have other intentions and give Williams some more run tonight and play smaller. In no way would I play Williams in Cash, but could be a great punt in GPPs.

Other Forwards I like ( Derrick Jones Jr., Jae Crowder, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Aaron Gordon)

Center

Joel Embiid (9,500) (10,000) – Facing the Hawks who are allowing the most fpts to C and PHI is without Simmons and Harris is doubtful. Embiid should be in for a huge role tonight. He is also showing up as the highest owned player. Last game Simmons missed which was 2 games ago vs BKN. Embiid put up 65+ fpts. I expect the same thing from him again tonight.

Gorgui Dieng (3,400) (3,600) – With Embiid in a spot like he is in tonight its tough to fade him on FD for another Center. But if your trying to be contrarian and pay up at other spots and go with a value Center. I would either go with Dieng or Robin Lopez (who I will be going over next) Jaren Jackson Jr. is out. In the game Jackson got hurt on 2/21. Dieng seen the majority of the rest of his minutes. Dieng also had an absolute great game putting up 32 fpts in 21 minutes. All year long when he has been given the time on the court, he has produced. I’m projecting him to see roughly 23-25 minutes tonight. Being the fpt/min player he is, He should be able to crush value tonight. When playing a value player like this you typically want more than just 6x or 7x out of them. There is no reason Dieng cannot reach that tonight if he gets the minutes. My projection model has him projected for 28 fpts which is a little over 8x on both sites.

Robin Lopez (3,000) (3,500) – His brother Brook Lopez is ruled out tonight for MIL. Now you know there has always got to be some brother rivalry going on. I couldn’t imagine being on the same team as my brother and watch him play 25 minutes a night and I’m not even getting 10. If I was Robin, I’d make sure whenever I would fill in for my brother I would want to show the coach… “Hey, your making a mistake and playing the wrong brother.” .. At absolutely minimum price and facing a WAS team allowing the 7th most fpts in the league to C, Robin should be able to get you at least 6x. He is averaging .81 fpt/min on the season. So if he sees the 26 minutes his brother was seeing. That equals out to be 21 fpts. Right around 7x value. So Dieng and RoLo are 2 solid value options if you want to be different and not play Embiid. In Cash games, I would stick with Embiid in the Center spot on FD.

Other Centers I like …. (Nikola Vucevic, Montrezl Harrell)

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