NBA Stars & Scrubs – 2/12/20
By DfsShepSheet

 

 

Salaries are Draftkings first, Fanduel second.

Tonight we have a massive 11 game slate. Giannis was ruled out before the slate came out, so the MIL players seen a price increase to reflect Giannis absence. As we have seen all year, Bledsoe and Middleton are always chalk when Giannis is ruled out. They do see a tough defensive opponent tonight with Indiana. I think in cash you can still play them both and be ok. Not a bad idea to fade in GPPs if you feel IND can hold them to under value.

Guards–

Tyus Jones (3,900) (4,500) – A little bit of a better player on Draftkings tonight. He has scored over 20 fpts in the last 4 games. Seeing roughly 20 mins/game. At 3,900 on Draftkings he is a very sold option to get you 6xat his price tag. It will be tough, but not out of the realm of possibility on Fanduel. POR is allowing the most fpts in the league to the PG position. MEM is currently the favorite by 3.5. He is nothing special, just a solid value option.

Elfrid Payton (7,500) (7,200) – Elf has turned on the jets as of lately and its about time he has been getting the run he deserves and the Knicks paid for. WAS is allowing the 4th most FPTS to PGs. The Knicks are in an up tempo game. 6x might be his ceiling in this game. But it is very possible to get to given the matchup.

Trae Young (10,400) (10,100) – Out of all the top salary guards on the Slate, Trae is my favorite. DRuss is on a new team, only scored 30 fpts in his first game in a Wolves uniform. Booker has an ugly game log recently where I cant see myself paying 8k for maybe 30 fpts. Luka is coming back from a lengthy absence. Lillard has cooled off. The only other high salary guard I like tonight is Fox, But his matchup is nowhere as juicy as Trae’s. ATL vs CLE is the highest over/under on the slate with a tight spread of ATL only favored by 2. CLE is allowing the 2nd most fpts to the PG position at 52.7. Darius Garland has a -2.33 DRPM. Everything is pointing to a 60+ fpt night from Trae.

Other Guards I like (Shabazz Napier, Gary Trent, Eric Bledsoe, Terry Rozier, Colin Sexton)

Forwards—

Kevin Porter (4,300) (4,400) – ATL is the worst defensive team in the league when it comes to SF. Porter is coming off a 7x value performance.. I expect the same thing from him again here tonight. He should be pretty low owned to get you some good leverage as well.

James Johnson (3,500) (4,300) – In his first 2 games with the Wolves Johnson has gotten 8x value and 6x value off the bench. Tonight he is still cheap enough and in a great spot to do the same. Value is much better on DK, But he is still in play on FD. CHA is allowing the 4th most FPTS to PF. Johnson is averaging over 1 fpt/min in his 2 games with the wolves and averaging 25 mins. I could see a 25-30 fpts performance from him tonight.

Jae Crowder (5,100) (5,300) – I have been hyping Crowder up a lot since before his first game the other night… Looking into MIA and who they had and their game style, I felt Crowder was gonna be a great fit, and boy was I right. I gotta mention him here again tonight. The matchup isn’t the best facing UTA who is very good defensively, especially to the SF and PF positions where they are ranked 2nd and 1st in the league in allowing the least amount of FPTS. But Crowder has been playing great in MIA, at over 10x value his first game and over 8.5x in his second. His price has increased but still not so much to where he can’t get you 30 fpts. I’m Loving my boy Crowder here. Especially playing his former team.

Other Forwards I like ( Mikal Bridges (PHX), Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr. (If Kevin Love sits), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (especially if Ibaka gets ruled out, Rui Hachimura))

Centers —

Karl Anthony Towns (10,500) (10,300) – The matchup is there, but is his ability to get you 60? He hasn’t seen since 60 fpts since January 25th. CHA is allowing the 4th most fpts to Cs on the year and Cody Zeller has a – DRPM rating. It has been a rule this year to play bigs vs CHA.

Nikola Vucevic (9,000) (9,400) – I honestly think Vucevic is a better play here than Towns. He is in an overall better spot, facing DET allowing the 3rd most FPTs to Cs, plus DET is now without Drummond and they have Thon Maker and Christian Wood switching off at the 5. I feel Vuc can completely exploit this matchup. With Towns not reaching over 55 fpts anytime recently and Vuc hitting over 50 fairly consistently recently. I feel he is a much better play than Towns and will probably carry far less ownership.

Cheick Diallo (5,000) (3,700) – Deandre Ayton is listed as Doubtful for tonights game, Ayton missed last game and Diallo got the start and got 25 fpts against a tough Lakers team. Diallo seen a significant price increase on Draftkings. But still almost bare minimum on Fanduel. If your looking to pay up in other positions and need a value Center, I’d roll with Diallo here if Ayton does get ruled out. I think he is a fade on DK though.

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