NBA Stars & Scrubs 
2/11/20
By DfsShepSheet

 

Draftkings Salaries listed first. Fanduel Salaries are second.

Tonight we have a 5 game slate with not much value at the moment. This slate is going to be much tougher to differentiate between the good and bad chalk unless we get some news closer to lock.

GUARDS

Damian Lillard (10,300) (9,800)

As we all know of Dame’s recent hot streak which seems to have slowed down the past couple games. He is in the best spot of all PGs tonight facing a Pelicans team allowing the 7th most fpts to the PG position. On a slate with not much value it might be tough to fit Dame in your lineup. But if you wanna pay up for anyone I think Dame is your guy.

 

Dennis Schroder (6,500) (6,600)

Schroder has been one of the most consistent players as of late and his price seems to stay the same. He has been a strong option for OKC all year and a front runner for the 6th man award. Vegas currently has the Spurs as 8 point favorites which I think is a little bit of a stretch. I would be putting money on OKC to cover this spread as I feel they will keep this a close game. Even though the spurs are ranked the 12th best defending the PG position, Schroder makes for a great play tonight due to his consistency of hitting 35+ night in and night out. The DVP will most likely draw people away and his ownership down so he makes for a very good tournament play.

Ryan Arcidiacono (3,200) (3,500)

If you are looking to fit your lineup with some higher priced guys tonight and we don’t receive any injury news to open up value. Archy boy here is in a great spot. CHI is in a paced up game tonight facing the worst defensive rating team in the league. Vegas has the Bulls favored by 3, but this game could easily get out of hand if Lavine comes to play. This will open the door for guys like Arcidiacono to step in for a larger than normal role. Also he plays at a much faster pace than Satoransky so this game play fits his style well.

Zach Lavine (8,200) (9,000)

Even though he is $800 more on fanduel he takes up 1% less salary which still puts him in play. Like mentioned above, WAS is ranked dead last in defensive rating. WAS is ranked in the middle of the pack in allowing fpts to the SG position. But allowing the 6th most to the SF position. Lavine has been playing at the SF position 67% of the time throughout the year. But with Kriss Dunn out I think Lavine has been playing more at the SG position and Hutchinson at the 3. I wouldn’t let this DVP scare you off Lavine, He has 60+ fpt upside, especially in a matchup vs a terrible defensive team.

Other Guards I like – (Furkan Korkmaz, Marcus Smart)

FORWARDS

Lamarcus Aldridge (6,700) (7,100)

Coming off a 50 fpt performance vs DEN who are no slouch defending bigs. Aldridge is just too cheap here. He is currently coming in as the highest owned player on the slate, making for a great cash play. OKC is ranked in the top 10 defending the PF and C positions. This could potentially make LMA a trap tonight. May be worth fading in tournaments. If your looking for leverage in cash games you could fade him there too and hope he is a trap and doesn’t go off at 50% owned. As I finished writing this, Derozan was just listed as Doubtful for tonights game. This now gives LMA a bigger boost.

Davis Bertans (5,400) (5,800)

The other night I got burned playing Bertans over Rui, but tonight I think it’s a Bertans kind of night. CHI is ranked dead last allowing the most fpts to the PF position. Bertans is currently projected to come off the bench, but to play more minutes than Rui. I like Bertans to come off the bench here, I think he’ll see more usage than being on the court with Beal. Even though CHI is ranked dead last vs the PF, they are allowing the 10th least amount of rebounds in the league. Rui is listed as a versatile forward, but he is more of a rebounded than Bertans. Bertans is averaging 8.4 3pt attemps per game and CHI is allowing the 5th most 3pt attempts per game. I think this matchup is a better suit for Bertans than it will be for Rui. My projection model also has Bertans at over 7x value tonight.

Other Forwards I like (Danillo Gallinari, Robert Covington, Jayson Tatum )

CENTER

Joel Embiid (9,100) (9,800)

So there has been some drama and rumors on the media about Embiid and Simmons not being a good fit. Before last game I was having a conversation with someone about how Embiid just didn’t seem to be playing with any energy, he wasn’t attacking the rim like he used to and just seemed to be hanging around the 3pt line all game. He quickly shut me up last game. Now he is in another good spot tonight facing the Clippers who are a great defensive team ranked 6th in the league. But they are allowing the 7th most fpts to big men. Embiid has 2 60+ fpt games in the last 5 he has played against the Clippers. Whiteside is the other payup Center on the slate tonight and DVP wise, he is in a better spot than Embiid, But Whiteside hasn’t cracked 45 fpts vs NOP and he has faced them twice this year. One game he got 44, the other he got 33. I think with the drama going on in PHI this lights a fire under Embiid to make him want to go show the fans who the boss is in that house and to stick with him by “trusting the process”

Luke Kornet (4,100) (4,400)

Coming off a 31 fpt performance, he is in a great matchup facing a WAS team allowing the 6th most fpts to Cs. My projection model has him projected for 26 fpts which is 6.4x value on DK.

 

 

 

Other Centers I like (Ivaca Zubac, Enes Kanter)

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