NBA DEEP DIVE – March 23, 2019
By: Javier Rodriguez
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Boston Celtics (43-19) @ Charlotte Hornets (32-39)
Celtics -2.5 – Total: 222
Vegas is projecting this game to stay close. If that’s the case, I expect Kyrie Irving to CRUSH value today. Not to mention, today is his 27th birthday! #narrativesmatter. With Al Horford expected to sit out and no Aron Baynes (ankle), I would assume Daniel Theis will get all the minutes he can handle, and at his DFS price, he is definitely someone to consider rostering in GPP’s. On the Charlotte side of things, I like rookie SF Miles Bridges, who has been on a mini tear lately, with averages of 29.5mpg, 9.5ppg, 11rpg, 3apg & 2 spg in his last two games.
Miami Heat (35-37) @ Washington Wizards (30-43)
Wizards -1.5 – Total: 220.5
Another projected close game in tonight’s 7 game slate. Miami in know for there lock down defense, but Wizards Star SG has been match up proof since John Wall went down. I wouldn’t make Beal a priority in lineups today since there are so many other options around his price tag, but if I had to choose a Wizard, or if I wanted to be contrarian to the field, Beal is my guy! On the Miami side, I’m enamored with Bam’s potential! Miami is on a back end of a back to back, but Adebayo only played 18 minutes in a blowout loss to the Bucks, so his minutes should be safe in the upper 20’s today. Also, Whiteside had a nice game vs the Bucks last night, which means, it’s BAM’s turn today vs a very WEAK Wizards interior defense! Derrick Jones Jr has been starting the past few games and at his DFS price, he is definitely someone to consider as a punt play in GPP’s.
Philadelphia 76ers (47-25) @ Atlanta Hawks (25-48)
76ers -8 – Total: 237
With this game projected to be the highest scoring on the slate, there is a lot to like fantasy wise. But my number one OPTION has to be Joel Embiid! The hawks are known to have one of the worst interior defenses in the league, although, advanced stats show they have been better as of late. But that still doesn’t stop me from wanting to Roster Embeast in all of my DFS lineups! In his last game vs the Celtics, Embiid self proclaimed himself as the “Most Unstoppable Player in the League”, I’m a believer in #theprocess! Apparently, Embiid has never played at the State farm Arena in ATL, this is just another narrative for Embiid to SMASH value tonight! Ben Simmons is another guy I have interest in. The hawks are known for their poor defense vs opposing PG’s. Ben Simmons being 6’10” vs a 6’2″ rookie PG in Trae Young, is a really interesting match up. Nothing really entices me from the Hawks side of things.
Utah Jazz (42-30) @ Chicago Bulls (21-52)
Jazz -10.5 – Total: 216.5
This is a game I am going to stay away from! The Jazz are on a back end of a back to back and are coming off of a shocking loss to the Atlanta Hawks. This game seems like a blowout in the making, but if it somehow stays close, there are a few fantasy relevant guys in this game. With Otto Porter Jr being doubtful (Shoulder), Kris Dunn being questionable (Back), and Zack Lavine being listed as a true game time decision… I will be considering rostering Shaq Harrison again, who put up 33.5fps last game in a start over the injured Otto Porter Jr. If Dunn and Lavine are both out, guys like Ryan Arcidiacono, Antonio Blakeney, and Wayne Selden Jr become interesting punt streamers! On the Jazz side of things, I would consider Ricky Rubio & Rudy Gobert, since the Bulls are know for their weak defense vs opposing PG’s & C’s.
Minnesota Timberwolves (32-40) @ Memphis Grizzlies (29-43)
Wolves -1.5 – Total: 216.5
This game is projected to be at a slower pace than usual. which means, I’m not too interested in anyone not named KAT! With no Teague & Rose KAT’s numbers sky rocket! Especially his assist totals. Like Beal, KAT is pretty much match up proof (unless he’s going against Joel Embiid). I would also consider playing Tyus Jones, but a matchup vs Mike Conley is never fun. Memphis, on the other hand, is coming off a back end of a back to back and are expecting Mike Conley back in the lineup, which kills any hope of potentially playing Tyler Dorsey again tonight. Conley should have fresh legs tonight, and should be considered rostering vs a banged up Minnesota team.
Dallas Mavericks (28-44) @ Golden State Warriors (49-22)
Warriors -14 – Total: 219.5
With both Steph Curry & Shaun Livingston expected to sit out (rest), I like Quinn Cook’s upside vs a Dallas team that is known for having weak vs opposing PG’s. Not to mention, today is Cook’s 26th Birthday #narrativesmatter. So he should look to come out with some extra motivation. I don’t think the warriors will have to rely heavily on KD much, with this being an easy W. However, I do expect Boogie Cousins to FEAST down low! Cousin’s is one of my favorite chalks of the night. With no Curry, Boogie’s usage % rate sky rockets! On the Dallas side of things, I have no interest in anybody not named LUKA! Doncic has had a tough weak, tweaking his knee, under-performing in back to back sets… But, if this game somehow stays close, i see Luka having a nice bounce back performance. BIG IF!
Detroit Pistons (37-34) @ Portland Trail Blazers (44-27)
Blazers -5 – Total: 215
This game is projected to be the lowest scoring of the slate. Nothing really catches my eye in this match up. This looks like it can turn out to be an ugly game. If I were to consider rostering anyone, it would have to be Damian Lillard, for obvious reasons. With CJ McColumm out for the remainder of the season, Lillard’s numbers are expected to rise. In the last two games without CJ, Lillard has dropped 63.5fps & 65.25fps (Draftkings). With that production, you have to consider him tonight! On the Detroit side of things, I am only interested in Andre Drummond. Drummond has a tough match up against Nurkic, and with so many options at the C position tonight, I’m most likely going to stay away from Andre. that bieng said, i wouldn’t be surprised at another 20/20 performance.
Phoenix Suns (17-56) @ Sacramento Kings (35-36)
Kings -10 – Total: 230
This game is projected to be the second highest scoring game of the slate. Game stacking this game would not be a bad idea! There are so many viable options to choose from… Devin Booker is really intriguing in this up pace spot! If this game stays competitive, I can see Booker having a monster game and winning you some tournaments in the last game of the night. DeAndre Ayton is also someone to consider, Sacramento has one of the worst interior defenses in the league, not to mention he will be playing against his High School teammate Marvin Bagley, who by the way, got the best of him in their last match up back in February. He should come out with that extra motivation vs his childhood friend! #narrativesmatter.
Jimmer is BACK! Phoenix just signed PG Jimmer Fredette to a Two year deal and expects him to play tonight vs his former team the Sacramento Kings. Fredette is in a unique situation, he hasn’t played in the NBA in over Three years, and his first game back is vs the team that “gave up” on his development (talk about revenge game!) #narrativesmatter. Well, it looks like he developed just fine in China playing for the Shanghai Sharks, averaging close to 40ppg in that Three year span. At his DFS price I like Jimmer as a punt streamer option in GPP’s.
On the Sacramento side of things, there are too many players to choose from, and chances are one or two of them will burn you! If I had to pick one or two, I would have to go with De’Aaron Fox, Phoenix has one of the worst PG defenses in the league, especially on transition, and that is where Fox is most successful at. My other guy would have to be Marvin Bagley! Bagley is from Arizona and as we know, he will be playing against his High School teammate, DeAndre Ayton. In his last game vs Suns at Phoenix, Bagley posted 32pts, 7reb, 1ast, 1stl, & 1 blk in 31 minutes. Look for him duplicate that performance tonight!
Good luck tonight! Please follow my social media below for some daily sleeper picks! #narrativesmatter