Victory Lane – O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Race Preview
March 31st, 2019
By Tyler Miller – @rickybobby_jr
The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series was limited to one practice on Saturday due to rain. A few names pop on the list of ten lap averages (the fastest ten consecutive laps run during practice). Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch were at the top of the list. The 48 team has apparently found speed. They were fastest in opening practice, won the pole, fifth in single lap speed in final practice, and posted the fastest ten lap average speed. Many DFS players were burned by Jimmie Johnson last week in Martinsville, but at his price point ($9.300/8,000) he is a must play at Texas. Kurt Busch ($11,000/9,500) is appealing because he is priced down slightly from the Penske Drivers and younger brother Kyle. The real appeal with Kurt is that his car is showing speed, but he didn’t advance past the first round of qualifying and is starting 30th on Sunday.
In building a cash lineup, which I recommend for all tracks 1-2 miles in length, I am building around Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch. Kyle Busch is the favorite to win the race and the 16th starting spot provides differential points as insurance in case he comes up a few spots short. The issue with Kyle is obviously the price tag ($15,000/12,200).
Three names stand out for value. Since Daytona, Matt Tifft ($4,000/5,400) has finished every race in a better position than he qualified. Parker Kligerman ($3,500/5,100) is back after taking a few scheduled weeks off. Kligerman was 23rd in ten lap average during final practice, 10 spots better than his starting position. Kligerman finished 30th at Atlanta and 31st at Las Vegas, but a finish in the mid-20s in not out of the realm of possibility. The last value play is Bubba Wallace ($4,500/$5,500). Bubba is starting 10th which puts him at a disadvantage for differential points. His 10 lap average speed in final practice was 10th, but I don’t see that team putting
together a top ten run on Sunday, a mid-teens finish is more realistic which would still make him a strong fantasy option given his price point.
I prefer Fan Duel for NASCAR because of the 5 driver lineups (as opposed to 6 on DK) and the pricing structure. I prefer to play single entry 50/50 contests for 1-2 mile races, 50/50 and GPP on Short Tracks (split evenly) and GPP only for the road courses, Daytona, and Talladega.
For Sunday’s race at Texas Motor Speedway my 50/50 lineup includes a core of Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch. I am considering paying up for Kyle Busch and using Aric Almirola to round out the lineup. Almirola ($10,500/8,400) has been incredibly consistent all year with finishes of 8, 7, 4, 9, 9 in his last five races. If I don’t use Kyle Busch, Joey Logano ($13,500/11,600) and Ryan Blaney ($12,500/11,200) fit in a lineup with Parker Kligerman as the value play.