6/29 MLB Value Plays


Marco Gonzales ($7,300)

KC is bad. So bad that they have a .555 OPS in June. Moustakas, KC’s scariest bat, is struggling. He’s only 3k on FD for the first time in a while. Gonzales has been knocked around lately, but he has played Anaheim, the Yankees, and most recently Boston. He’s a competent¬†pitcher up against arguably the worst offense in baseball. KC is predicted to score 3.3 runs. I’ll take Gonzales for $3,300.

Eric Lauer ($6,800)

I didn’t think I would recommend Lauer ever if you asked me a month ago. He’s yet to allow more than three ER in his last five starts. Pittsburgh lacks a good offense, and lefties don’t change anything much. I’d rather go with Gonzales, but Lauer is another decent choice if you want to go away from the aces and load up on bats.


Jose Abreu ($3,300)

Gallardo has been bad for quite a while. Chicago has an implied total of a run over their runs/game. We’re in Texas too, bring on the hit parade. Abreu has home run upside and comes at a cheap price.

Justin Smoak ($2,900)

Free Smoak Free Smoak. I need to see Drake’s new album. Anyway, Smoak is pretty close to free today. He’s slated to hit second against Liriano who’s ERA is much lower than his FIP and SIERA. Toronto is projected to score over five runs today. Liriano allows more than four walks per nine, and Smoak walks at a 15.6% rate, meaning he should pick his pitches to hit or walk. Lastly, righties own a .402 xwOBA against him so far this year.


Yoan Moncada ($3,300)

Gallardo allows a .422 xwOBA to lefties and brings a 13% strikeout rate to the table, which is great news for Moncada. The switch-hitter performs much better against RHP. All of his home runs have come against them. Moncada owns a 41% hard contact rate against righties. Situated at the leadoff spot, Moncada could feast on the starting pitcher and the below-average bullpen.

Ian Kinsler ($3,100)

We have ninety-degree weather in Baltimore and that should play a role for Anaheim’s 5.3 run total today. Trout and Upton look good, and we have Kinsler hitting right before them. I see lot of scoring opportunity if he can get on base. David Hess has a low strikeout rate and a decent walk rate, and Kinsler is a disciplined hitter. He’s struggled, but his BABIP is quite low and his K/BB rate is shiny.


Justin Turner ($3,400)

I like Travis Shaw a lot too tonight, but I simply cannot ignore Turner. He’s 10-18 (.556) with zero strikeouts¬†against Anderson. He’s destroying lefties with a .344 average this year after murking them last year. Anderson has been a reverse-splits guy, but I don’t think that matters much against Turner.

Luis Valbuena ($2,600)

Valbuena is hitting behind Trout and Upton and that’s also a good thing. Hess may skip around pitching to them and look at Valbuena. Again, Hess is not at all a strikeout pitcher, which boosts Valbuena’s value today. We know what we’re getting with Hess, 60% fastballs at ~92 MPH. Valbuena has no qualms with that, hitting a .292 ISO against it, better than Trout! He looks fantastic on paper tonight at $2,600.


Nick Ahmed ($2,600)

Ahmed has been in a cold spell, but he has another chance against a lefty tonight. Suarez has been a splits guy, and he has a rough 6.18 ERA away from AT&T. Right-handed hitters are collectively hitting a .366 wOBA against him and a 51% hard contact rate. Look for him to hit ahead of the lefty killers.

Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400)

It appears Gonzalez is hitting fifth against Wilmer Font. Font has opposing lefties hitting a .384 wOBA with a 45% hard contact rate. Gonzalez takes control against fastballs like Font’s. He has a 90% contact rate batting ~94 MPH fastballs with a .311 ISO, which leads the team.


Marcell Ozuna ($3,200)

Huh? Hello? Ozuna is $3,200 despite hitting .346 in his last seven games? He’s owned Teheran with a .405 average and three home runs. Teheran has been shaky in his last several starts. Lots of hard contact and home runs allowed. He’s been great against righties, but I do think Ozuna will put up some numbers tonight.

Avisail Garcia ($2,700)

Again, Texas, hot, high run total. Garcia is 3-10 (.300) against Gallardo with a home run. He appears to be hitting second. He has a couple home runs in his last seven games.

Dylan Cozens ($2,000)

I don’t know who this guy is, but I do now know he hit forty home runs a couple years ago in AA. Hitting sixth for the Phillies in ninety-degree weather, this guy has massive power potential against Fedde. Fedde’s allowing a .376 xwOBA to lefties this year. I’d take him, especially at Citizens Bank Park.

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