Hammer Time DFS
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390
Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning money on football. LET’S GOOO (win some money)!
*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. And remember to bet in moderation!
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I wasn’t able to finish this article by opening night, but for record-keeping, I hit on 4 of my 5 Thursday night football picks, including a same game 3-leg parlay! Here’s how it played out:
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score first (+550 at DraftKings)—missed
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score (-125 at DraftKings)—hit!
· KC -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings) —hit!
· Same Game Parlay: 3-legs (+216 at FanDuel)—hit!
Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score
KC money line
Alternate over 49.5 total points
· Will Fuller over 63.5 yards (-130 at DraftKings)—hit!
Let’s dive into the remaining picks for Week 1!
CHI money line (+120 on FanDuel): Let’s be honest: Mitchell Trubisky is a bust and I fully expect Nick Foles (#bdn) to take over before Chicago’s BYE week. However, Mitch has owned the Lions so far in his short career. Detroit’s strength is the offensive side of the ball, but Kenny Golladay is doubtful and we don’t know how the muddy backfield will shake up. Take the plus money and hammer the Bears. Sorry, https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie
SEA -2.5 (-110 on DraftKings) and over 49 total points (-110 on DraftKings): The odds makers in Vegas would have us believe that the Seahawks would only be favored by 5.5 points on a neutral field. I’m not buying that. This Seahawks squad, which was 11-5 last season and one play away from being a top seed in the playoffs, is not being given the respect it deserves. Give me the Seahawks covering by less than a field goal. As a bonus, I’ll also take the over because I love these high-powered offenses. #letrusscook
PIT -5.5 (-115 on FanDuel): The Pittsburgh Steelers went 8-8 last season with guys named Mason Rudolph and “Duck” Hodges under center. New York’s defense is still a weak spot so expect a healthy Big Ben and James Connor to take advantage. The Steelers may have the top defense in the league in 2020, so I trust them to keep Saquon Barkley in check and “Danny Dimes” well in check. Give me the Steelers, Vegas; you can have the points.
GB +2.5 (-109 on DraftKings): The front office lit a fire under Aaron Rodgers when they drafted his heir apparent in the 2020 NFL Draft. Rodgers may have limited weapons but that didn’t stop him last season. Green Bay’s 2019 schedule was on the softer side, but we can’t discount the fact that the Packers compiled 13 wins, earned the 2nd seed, and swept Minnesota last season. The Vikings lost some key players on defense in the off-season, so I expect the Packers offense to handily control this game. The books are giving the Vikings an edge for being at home, but why? Fans are not allowed at U.S. Bank Stadium for at least the first two games, which eliminates any “home-field advantage” in my mind. I’ll take a hungry Rodgers with something to prove and the points, please.
IND -2.5/PIT +0.5 (-130 at FanDuel): The Jaguars are tanking for Trevor—no matter how hard they try to deny it. The organization is an utter mess, with Tony Khan, the senior VP of football administration, getting into Twitter spats with players. Take it from former players, such as Jalen Ramsey, Yannick Ngakoue, and Leonard Fournette, who managed to force themselves out of the toxic locker room: this is not an organization that wants to win right now. 8.5 is too much to comfortably lay in a season opener—especially one that follows the most uncertain off-season in NFL history—against a divisional opponent, however, so I’ll take the Colts in a teaser with the bonus 6 points. It’s hard to choose who to pair them with, but I’ll go with the Steelers.
Special Promo (does not count towards my picks record):
· LAR spread over DAL (-110 at FanDuel): FanDuel Sports book is currently running another “spread the love” promotion: they’re moving the spread by 1 point in favor of the Rams for every 5,000 fans who bet on L.A. using the promo (everyone will benefit from the final point spread). At the time of this writing, the spread is already +11. These promotions are locks, so make sure you take full advantage of the max $50 wager!
· Diggs over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel): After trading away Jamal Adams, the New York Jets have arguably the worst secondary in the league. Expect Josh Allen to use his newest toy early to prove he can in fact throw deep. It just takes one play…
· DeSean Jackson to score (+200 at FanDuel): The Eagles will be missing Alshon Jeffrey on Sunday and rookie Jalen Reagor may be on a limited snap count, making Jackson a centerpiece of the Eagles aerial attack. Jackson tends to go off on former teams and on opening day (more on that later). Expect fireworks.
· Jared Goff over 285.5 passing yards (+100 at FanDuel): I’m not sold on the Rams running back by committee approach and, as much as I hate to admit it, Dallas should have a dangerous offense this season. That equates to Goff airing it out early and often. I like Cooper Kupp and the ever-underrated “Bobby Trees” against the Cowboys secondary so I’ll lean towards the over here.
· Todd Gurley over 57.5 yards (-110 at FanDuel): Sure, Todd Gurley has the knees of an 84-year-old grandma, but the Falcons don’t really have another back capable of producing on the ground. His arthritic knee will undoubtedly cap his upside this season, but he should be fresh entering Week 1. Hammer him while you can.
· Josh Jacobs over 77.5 (-110 on FanDuel): The Panthers had the worst run defense in 2019 and they are now without Dontari Poe, who is now with the Cowboys, and Luke Kuechly, who retired in January. Josh Jacobs is going to E-A-T. Feed the man.
· Aaron Jones to score (+108 on DraftKings) and Aaron Jones over 64.5 yards (-112 on DraftKings): I mentioned earlier that I liked the Packers with the points because of Minnesota’s deteriorating defense. The Vikings traded for Yannick Ngakoue to replace the departed Everson Griffen, but the interior line is going to be as soft as pudding without Linval Joseph. The Packers have made their plans to run first painfully clear in the off-season and with A.J. Dillon losing the backup running back job to Jamaal Williams (for now), Jones’ path to success is clear.
***BEST BET ALERT*** DeSean Jackson over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel): DeSean Jackson and revenge games go together like peanut butter and jelly. And just like peanut butter, Jackson can be lethal to some. He can easily hit this mark on a single play. The stats speak for themselves:
He has averaged a whopping 17.4 yards per reception in his career—best in the NFL among active players—and has led the league in that category 4 times in his career: 2018 (18.9), 2016 (17.9), 2014 (20.9), and 2010 (22.5). He is also one of just 6 wide receivers in NFL history averaging at least 17 yards per reception while compiling 10,000 or more total yards.
He has 37 career games with 100-plus receiving yards, behind only Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown.
He has 31 career 50-plus yard touchdowns, which ranks second in NFL history (five short of Jerry Rice).
He is also the third-oldest player in NFL history to record multiple 50-plus yards receiving touchdowns in a single game.
He surpassed Jerry Rice in 2019 for the most 60-plus yard touchdowns in NFL history with 24.
He has recorded 6 opening day games with 100-plus receiving yards—tied with Michael Irvin for most in NFL history.
With Alshon Jeffrey ruled out nursing a never-ending foot injury and rookie Jalen Reagor active but recovering from a shoulder injury just weeks ago, Jackson is primed for another breakout opening day performance against an NFC East rival and former club. He’s looked great in camp so far and coming off a season in which he missed 15 games, he should have fresh legs. Most importantly, he’ll be hungry. Hammer. The. Over.
Any questions or comments?
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