Hammer Time
9/27/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 2 Betting Recap:
Wow. What a huge week for the Gambling Guru (and you, if you’ve been following my best bets and player props). First, the Nick Chubb to score the 1st TD prop (+400 at DraftKings and +650 on FanDuel) hit on Thursday night. That was a nice payout, especially if you did the max $20 for the DraftKings promo or took advantage of the higher odds on FanDuel. The Chubb over 71.5 rushing yards also smashed. The Joe Burrow over 23.5 rushing yards narrowly missed—at one point in the game he actually had it before taking a loss on a subsequent play—and the Same Game Parlay missed one leg because the total points went over. That provided a profitable 2-3 start to the weekend.

On Sunday, my best bets were split down the middle, but injuries to Saquon Barkley, Parris Campbell were partly to blame. Green Bay and San Francisco easily covered, while Kansas City avoided an upset and Tennessee pushed in the teaser. But we also learned just how bad Minnesota and Philadelphia are this year; the Vikings and Eagles are officially on the list of teams I can’t trust. Miami got a backdoor cover against Buffalo that I’m going to chalk up to a combination of Ryan Fitz“magic” and the game delay caused by the wild weather. However you slice it, it’s a lackluster 11-12 performance in the main slate.

The Monday night game was the big winner, however, as almost all of my player props hit. Alvin Kamara scored the first touchdown (+550 at DraftKings) then scored a second time (+600 at FanDuel). If you bet both props and Kamara to score at any time (a mis-priced -105 at FanDuel), you had a big day. Kamara also crushed his over 4.5 receptions, 37.5 receiving yards, and 90.5 total yards props. Likewise, Josh Jacobs hit the over on 2.5 receptions, 68.5 rushing yards, and 85.5 total yards. He failed to find the end zone and narrowly missed his over 17.5 receiving yards line with 17 yards, which killed 3 props. Still, that’s a dominant 9-3 finish to the Week 2.

Week 2 Record: 22-18 (55%)

Let’s see if we can keep it going for Week 3, starting with some TNF props…

TNF Player Props and Bets: MIA @ JAX
· Myles Gaskin over 16.5 receiving yards (-122 at FanDuel)
· Myles Gaskin over 2.5 receptions (-148 at DraftKings)
· Mike Gesicki over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Over 48.5 total points (-110 at DraftKings)
· MIA +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Minshew Mania may be in full effect, but Jacksonville’s defense is still a bottom feeder. So far this season, running backs have gashed the Jaguars when catching balls out of the backfield. Myles Gaskin has been impressive thus far as the surprise starter in Miami, so I expect that to continue tonight. Sure, there’s always a slim chance that receiving back specialist Matt Brieda steals the show, I’m confident coach Brian Flores will ride the hot hand. I think Gaskin goes over 2 receptions and smashes the receiving yards line (I’d even bet it up to 20 yards if the line continues to move). I also love Mike Gesicki to hit on his 49.5 receiving yards prop. Through two games, the Dolphins young tight end has been targeted 16 times, logging 160 yards on 11 receptions. DeVante Parker was removed from the injury report Wednesday, but playing on a short week after fighting through a hamstring injury only boosts the odds for Gesicki to be the focal point of this passing attack led by Fitz“magic”. I anticipate a high-scoring, messy affair. I’ll take the points with the Dolphins simply because I believe in the coaching staff. Fear the beard, fade the ’stache, and hammer these bets.

Sunday Spreads and Player Props:

Cincinnati Bengal’s RB Joe Mixon

CIN @ PHI:
· ***BEST BET*** Miles Sanders over 109.5 total yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· DeSean Jackson over 55.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Joe Mixon under 65.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· PHI -4.5 (+105 at FanDuel)
To quote the great Marshawn Lynch, “you know why I’m here.” I’m taking my Birds to cover 4.5 points and defeat the Bengal’s for the first time in 20 years (yes, seriously). I’ve been wrong on a lot of my Eagles picks this year, but that can only mean I’m due for a hot streak. Right? There is no such thing as a must-win in Week 3 but if Philadelphia can’t come away with a win against Cincinnati, the season is lost. Luckily, when Wentz’s back is against the wall, he responds. And right now, not only is his back pressed up against the wall, but a large Philadelphian mob is waiting on the other side with pitchforks and torches. In terms of player props, I’m sticking with Miles Sanders this week and fading the lead back on the other side. The offensive and defensive lines for the Bengal’s are among the worst in the league. That bodes well for Sanders, who I think easily surpasses the total yards mark, and poorly for Joe Mixon, who I think will run the rock less than 15 times. I’ll fade the DeSean Jackson touchdown prop this week (fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice… you’re off the best bets), but I will take the over on his yardage prop since Jalen Reagor is out.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

LV @ NE:
· Josh Jacobs over 2.5 receptions (-110 at Bet MGM)
· Josh Jacobs over 15.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
· NE -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Bill Belichick always tries to take away the opponent’s best weapon. You could argue that Josh Jacobs is said player, but recent bias would make a strong case for Darren Waller. Either way, I like Jacobs as a reliable check down option. He’s embraced the extra work in the passing game and should get 3 catches easily and just over 5 yards per reception is a reasonable ask. I also think the Patriots will come prepared after the heartbreak in Seattle last week. Meanwhile, the Raiders are primed for a letdown after their upset win in their stadium’s inaugural game.

Atlanta Falcons WR Calvin Ridley

CHI @ ATL:
· David Montgomery over 14.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· David Montgomery over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Calvin Ridley to score (-112 at DraftKings)
· Atlanta -3 (-104 at DraftKings)
Fact: The Atlanta Falcons have had the worst secondary this season. This should be a get-right game for Mitch Trubisky, which will buy him at least one more week before he’s supplanted by Nick Foles, and Allen Robinson, who has been dragging down fantasy teams this season. That being said, the lines are rather chalky. I see more value on the lines for David Montgomery, who has been Chicago’s lone bright spot thus far. On the other side, I have Ridley scoring yet another touchdown this week (I just can’t quit him) but am not touching the inflated line Vegas has posted. The Bears are undefeated, but their victories came against the lowly Lions and the Barkley-less Giants. “Matty Ice” may be too hot to handle.

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary

LAR @ BUF:
· Devin Singletary over 60.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
The Rams-Bills game is one of several great match-ups in Week 3. I’m leaning towards Buffalo, but not enough to make a call here. My favorite prop here is Devin Singletary to go over the rushing yards. Zack Moss will not play so Singletary will have the backfield all to himself. Well, unless T.J. Yeldon gets some carries. He won’t. Hammer the over.

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson

HOU @ PIT:
· Diontae Johnson over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
This one is another tough matchup. It’s hard to imagine Houston starting the season 0-3, but no one would fault them given their brutal opening schedule. Maybe a loss would put Bill O’Brian on the hot seat (probably not, but Texans fans can dream). The under on the rushing props for James Connor and David Johnson are enticing, but I am avoiding the unpredictable nightmare. Nothing else really stands out, except rising star Diontae Johnson. JuJu Smith-Schuster should draw the Texans top corner, which could mean Johnson gets loose. I’ll take the over 61.5 receiving yards while I still can.

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry

TEN @ MIN:
· Jonnu Smith over 41.5 receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel)
· TEN -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
I’ve already written off Minnesota this season. The defense is a far cry from what it was just a few seasons ago. The secondary in particular is atrocious, which is great news for Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. I prefer the latter—partly because the loss of Anthony Barr should help up the middle of the field for Smith and partly because I find it hard to trust Corey Davis to be consistent. Even if Tannehill throws for just 150 yards, Smith should smash this line. I’m also looking for the Titans to smash the Vikings and cover the 3. *hammering sounds*

Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

CAR @ LAC:
· ***BEST BET*** Austin Ekeler over 89.5 total yards (-109 at DraftKings)
· Austin Ekeler over 60.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Austin Ekeler over 26.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Another best bet? That’s right! I’m all in on Austin Ekeler this week. The Panthers had the worst run defense last year (which probably prompted them to go entirely defensive in the draft) and not much has changed. Joshua Kelley will eat into his carries and may vulture a touchdown, but there will be plenty of yards to go around. Give me the over on Ekeler’s rushing yards. Give me the over on Ekeler’s receiving yards. Give me the over on Ekeler’s total yards. Hammer, hammer, hammer!

Colts rookie RB Jonathan Taylor

NYJ @ IND:
· ***BEST BET*** Jonathan Taylor over 77.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
Surprise! A third best bet! The Jets could barely be called a professional football team when the season started, let alone now when they are crippled at the skilled positions. Who is Sam Darnold going to throw to? Can the ghost of Frank Gore do anything on the ground? The Colts will take a commanding lead and then it’s J.T. time. He may even double this line.

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson

DAL @ SEA:
· Chris Carson over 20.5 receiving yards (+106 at FanDuel)
There are a lot of juicy options in this game, especially given how Seattle’s secondary has played through two weeks. Unfortunately, Vegas has put up some chalky lines for Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and rookie CeeDee Lamb. I do like D.K. Metcalf now that the Seahawks are finally letting Russ cook, but my favorite bet here is on Chris Carson. He doesn’t scream “pass-catcher” but the bruising running back has put up huge numbers as a receiver so far this year. Vegas is asleep behind the wheel here with this line of 20.5 yards. Hammer the over.

Arizona RB Kenyan Drake

DET @ ARI:
· Kenyan Drake over 77.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
I see Arizona running away with this one. Literally. It’s a high number, but Kenyan Drake is due for a big game and this may just be it. I love “the Drake” this week.

TB @ DEN:
· Noah Fant over 3.5 receptions (-139 at Bet MGM)
· Leonard Fournette over 51.5 rushing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
· TB -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Denver Broncos have been decimated by injuries. Drew Lock and Courtland Sutton are out, and rookie Jerry Jeudy is a game-time decision. Hammer that 3.5 receptions. Tampa Bay has a stiff run defense, so I think Melvin Gordon will not be able to carry the load. That just leaves just Noah Fant as the safety blanket for backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Leonard Fournette, on the other hand, showed he could carry the load last week after Ronald Jones was benched following a fumble. Even if Lenny doesn’t get the start this week, he’ll take over at some point. He’ll crush this number as the Buccaneers sit on the ball and run out the clock. Hammer it.

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara

SNF Player Props and Bets: GB @ NO
· Alvin Kamara over 5.5 receptions (-139 at Bet MGM)
· Alvin Kamara to score (-167 at DraftKings)
· NO money line (-175 at DraftKings)
Can we postpone this game until both Michael Thomas and Davante Adams are healthy? Even without these stars, the game should be a fun one. Without knowing the status of Adams, it’s hard to pick a prop confidently for Green Bay. On the New Orleans side of things, I’ll stick with my new favorite running back (he won me quite a bit of money and has been clutch in fantasy), Alvin Kamara. He’s been the focal point of this offense in the absence of Michael Thomas. I like him over the receptions and think he’ll reach the endzone yet again. This game would be a pick ’em on a neutral site so it will be close. I’m leaning Saints if Adams sits, but that may just be because I don’t have any Packers on my fantasy teams.

 

MNF Player Props and Bets: KC @ BAL:
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score (+105 at Bet MGM)
· KC money line (+148 at FanDuel)
I can’t remember the last time we had such a big Monday Night Football match-up. I’m hesitant to fade this game entirely and just enjoy the fireworks, but I’ll make a couple of picks for my fellow gambling degenerates. I understand why Baltimore is a home favorite and that they match up well here, but I can’t pass up on the opportunity to bet the money line on Super Bowl LIV MVP and future Hall of Fame Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. I also love the mis-priced odds for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score at Bet MGM (another teachable moment—always shop around! This line was almost -200 at FanDuel and DraftKings).

Parlay Play of the Week:
· IND/TB/SEA all to win (+185 Odds Boost at DraftKings)

That’s all for now. Follow me at https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and Check back next week for more best bets and player props.

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 3 is 32-25, hitting on 56% of his bets.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

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