Hammer Time (NFL wk2)
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390
Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the oddsmakers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!
*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Note from the editor. As the season starts to pick back up so will our DFS play and our prop bets. Play safe and have fun! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie
Week 1 Betting Recap:
We started off hot last week, hitting on 4 of 5 Thursday Night Football bets but then a few upsets ruined our Sunday picks. Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t score first in the season opener as we’d hoped, but he did find the endzone eventually. The Chiefs covered the -9.5 spread (as if there was any doubt) and propelled the game over the alternate line of 49.5 points to help us hit on a same game parlay. Will Fuller was one of the few bright spots for the Texans, finishing with well over the 63.5 receiving yards prop he pegged him for.
On Sunday, the Bears squeaked out a victory with a late comeback and an ugly drop by Lions rookie running back De’Andre Swift. The Packers handled the Vikings easily, courtesy of Aaron Rodgers, who channeled his 2011 self and exposed Minnesota’s leaky secondary. Rodgers finished the day with a whopping stat line: 364 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 72.7% completion percentage. The Seahawks did indeed “let Russ cook,” and the result was a spectacular cover of the -2.5 spread in a high-scoring affair against the Falcons. In hindsight, this should have been marked as the best bet for Week 1. Atlanta’s offense is high-powered, but their defense is still abysmal, so I’m not sure why so much money was coming in on them.
On the player prop side, we only hit on 2 of 7 bets, but were close on most of the ones we missed. Josh Jacobs had a field day, as predicted, and easily went over his 77.5 rushing yards prop. Diggs did indeed feed on the Jets weak secondary, surpassing his 51.5 receiving yards prop. Todd Gurley just missed his 57.5 rushing yards prop and Aaron Jones did not find the endzone. That shouldn’t come as a surprise though, given the stats that the passing game put up in both affairs. In the night cap, Jared Goff also fell several yards short of his 285.5 passing yards line.
Now, for our biggest busts of the week: DeSean Jackson and the Indianapolis Colts.
Jackson was on a limited snap count during the game, but coach Pederson assured the media his snaps would increase each week—that would have been nice to know ahead of time. At any rate, the Washington Football Team kept Jackson locked down. Credit to Washington’s defense for penetrating the Eagles decimated offensive line and to their offense for scoring 27 unanswered points in the franchise’s biggest comeback since 1955. Last, but not least, we had the major upset of the week: the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars triumphed over Philip Rivers d the Indianapolis Colts. Is Minshew Mania real? We’ll find out in the coming weeks, but this was an ugly gambling casualty in week 1. Hopefully, not everyone went as all in as I did on the Colts.
Overall, we finished with an admirable 10-7 record for week 1. Hey, 59% ain’t too shabby. Let’s see how we fare in week 2!
· MIN +3 (+121 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): Both of these teams will be looking to make a statement after being embarrassed last week. I know that I trashed Minnesota’s secondary earlier, but Rivers is past his prime and Indianapolis has a subpar pass attack at best. The Colts could barely muster 20 points against the worst team in the NFL last week. So I will take the points with the better team. Hammer the Vikings. Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).
· GB -6 (+113 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): I was admittedly low on Green Bay coming into the season—they benefited last season from a weak schedule and won a handful of games by one score. But Rodgers is disgruntled (and who can blame him) after the bizarre draft decisions the front office made, and that appears to have lit a fire under him. He went wild in week 1, proving he’s still elite. I think that continues in week 2 against the swiss cheese secondary in Detroit. 6 points is too small of a handicap, so I’ll take the Packers over the Lions. Go Pack, Go! Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).
· BUF -5.5 (+114 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): I really like Brian Flores, but the Dolphins are still in rebuilding mode and the Bills see an opportunity to remain undefeated and start the season 2-0 in a division that’s been dominated by New England for the last two decades. Miami only put up 11 points against the Patriots defense last week and they’ll have a tougher ask against Buffalo. Give me the Bills as an under-a-touchdown favorite.
· PHI +3 (-119 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo on the adjusted line): My beloved birds betrayed me last week, but the starting line for this is a huge overcorrection. Miles Sanders, Lane Johnson, and Derek Barnett are back, so I’ll hammer the homer pick.
· SF -6 (-104 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo on the adjusted line): San Francisco is eager to erase the memory of their ugly loss last week and prove that there is no such thing as a Super Bowl hangover. They’ll bounce back this week in a big way against New York’s “offensive genius” Adam Gase.
· TEN -3 / KC -2.5 teaser (-132 at DraftKings): I refuse to buy in on the Jaguars and I think the Titans are still being underappreciated on the market. Kansas City is also far and away better than the team rebuilding in Los Angeles. My only concern about these spreads is a backdoor cover, so let’s erase that by taking the two together in a 6-point teaser. You might also consider a money line parlay at worse odds (-162) if you want to play it extra safe. I’m confident enough to go with the bigger payout. Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).
Noteworthy sports-book promos this week for existing users:
· DraftKings Profit Bonus: 25% profit bonus on every week 2 game. This boost applies to player props as well, but you can only use the boost once so choose wisely. See the DraftKings Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· DraftKings 1st TD Scorer Promo: Bet on the first TD scorer and if your bet doesn’t hit but the player scores at any time in the game win your wager back. See the DraftKings Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· FanDuel Same Game Parlay $10 Credit: Place a $20+ same game parlay of 3+ legs with minimum +200 final odds and get a free $10 site credit. See the FanDuel Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· FanDuel 35+ Point Profit Bonus: Place a pre-game $50 money line wager on any team and if your team scores 35+ points, win double the winnings. See the FanDuel Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
That’s all for now. Check back this weekend for more player props on Sunday’s games!
The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season so far is 10-7, hitting on 59% of his bets.
Any questions or comments?
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