||MLB Value Street – FanDuel – 7/4/18||July 4, 2018|
||MLB Value Street – FanDuel – 7/3/18||July 3, 2018|
||MLB Value Street – FanDuel – 7/2/18||July 2, 2018|
6/29 MLB Value Plays
Marco Gonzales ($7,300)
KC is bad. So bad that they have a .555 OPS in June. Moustakas, KC’s scariest bat, is struggling. He’s only 3k on FD for the first time in a while. Gonzales has been knocked around lately, but he has played Anaheim, the Yankees, and most recently Boston. He’s a competent pitcher up against arguably the worst offense in baseball. KC is predicted to score 3.3 runs. I’ll take Gonzales for $3,300.
Eric Lauer ($6,800)
I didn’t think I would recommend Lauer ever if you asked me a month ago. He’s yet to allow more than three ER in his last five starts. Pittsburgh lacks a good offense, and lefties don’t change anything much. I’d rather go with Gonzales, but Lauer is another decent choice if you want to go away from the aces and load up on bats.
Jose Abreu ($3,300)
Gallardo has been bad for quite a while. Chicago has an implied total of a run over their runs/game. We’re in Texas too, bring on the hit parade. Abreu has home run upside and comes at a cheap price.
Justin Smoak ($2,900)
Free Smoak Free Smoak. I need to see Drake’s new album. Anyway, Smoak is pretty close to free today. He’s slated to hit second against Liriano who’s ERA is much lower than his FIP and SIERA. Toronto is projected to score over five runs today. Liriano allows more than four walks per nine, and Smoak walks at a 15.6% rate, meaning he should pick his pitches to hit or walk. Lastly, righties own a .402 xwOBA against him so far this year.
Yoan Moncada ($3,300)
Gallardo allows a .422 xwOBA to lefties and brings a 13% strikeout rate to the table, which is great news for Moncada. The switch-hitter performs much better against RHP. All of his home runs have come against them. Moncada owns a 41% hard contact rate against righties. Situated at the leadoff spot, Moncada could feast on the starting pitcher and the below-average bullpen.
Ian Kinsler ($3,100)
We have ninety-degree weather in Baltimore and that should play a role for Anaheim’s 5.3 run total today. Trout and Upton look good, and we have Kinsler hitting right before them. I see lot of scoring opportunity if he can get on base. David Hess has a low strikeout rate and a decent walk rate, and Kinsler is a disciplined hitter. He’s struggled, but his BABIP is quite low and his K/BB rate is shiny.
Justin Turner ($3,400)
I like Travis Shaw a lot too tonight, but I simply cannot ignore Turner. He’s 10-18 (.556) with zero strikeouts against Anderson. He’s destroying lefties with a .344 average this year after murking them last year. Anderson has been a reverse-splits guy, but I don’t think that matters much against Turner.
Luis Valbuena ($2,600)
Valbuena is hitting behind Trout and Upton and that’s also a good thing. Hess may skip around pitching to them and look at Valbuena. Again, Hess is not at all a strikeout pitcher, which boosts Valbuena’s value today. We know what we’re getting with Hess, 60% fastballs at ~92 MPH. Valbuena has no qualms with that, hitting a .292 ISO against it, better than Trout! He looks fantastic on paper tonight at $2,600.
Nick Ahmed ($2,600)
Ahmed has been in a cold spell, but he has another chance against a lefty tonight. Suarez has been a splits guy, and he has a rough 6.18 ERA away from AT&T. Right-handed hitters are collectively hitting a .366 wOBA against him and a 51% hard contact rate. Look for him to hit ahead of the lefty killers.
Marwin Gonzalez ($2,400)
It appears Gonzalez is hitting fifth against Wilmer Font. Font has opposing lefties hitting a .384 wOBA with a 45% hard contact rate. Gonzalez takes control against fastballs like Font’s. He has a 90% contact rate batting ~94 MPH fastballs with a .311 ISO, which leads the team.
Marcell Ozuna ($3,200)
Huh? Hello? Ozuna is $3,200 despite hitting .346 in his last seven games? He’s owned Teheran with a .405 average and three home runs. Teheran has been shaky in his last several starts. Lots of hard contact and home runs allowed. He’s been great against righties, but I do think Ozuna will put up some numbers tonight.
Avisail Garcia ($2,700)
Again, Texas, hot, high run total. Garcia is 3-10 (.300) against Gallardo with a home run. He appears to be hitting second. He has a couple home runs in his last seven games.
Dylan Cozens ($2,000)
I don’t know who this guy is, but I do now know he hit forty home runs a couple years ago in AA. Hitting sixth for the Phillies in ninety-degree weather, this guy has massive power potential against Fedde. Fedde’s allowing a .376 xwOBA to lefties this year. I’d take him, especially at Citizens Bank Park.
|MLB Value Street – FanDuel – 6/29/18||June 29, 2018|
||6/28/18 MLB FD Value Plays||June 28, 2018|
||6/27/18 MLB FD Value Plays||June 27, 2018|
||6/26/18 MLB FD Value Plays||June 26, 2018|
||6/25/18 MLB FD Value Plays||June 25, 2018|
||6/22/18 MLB FD Value Plays||June 22, 2018|
||6/21/18 MLB Value Plays||June 21, 2018|
About Last Night…
Biased Giants fan view: Dan Strailey is a baseball villain. Besides that, Verlander was unlucky not picking up the win, but he still pitched very well. Clevinger and German ended up being the best pitchers, and there were a couple surprise performances from otherwise bad pitchers. Flowers was one of the disappointments, as he was walked twice while the Braves put up eleven runs. Guyer seemed to be a popular, but efficient play. Arenado outhit Story, but I have no qualms with my decision here.
Another exciting night of potential rain delays! Watch out for the games in Pittsburgh, New York, and Washington. All games have a eight run implied total or higher. Prices for the Mets have increased, and we have a pick ’em between them and the Rockies. The Nats have an implied total of 5.31, over a run difference from their runs/game. Charlie Morton hasn’t seemed on like he was earlier in the season, yet the Rays have a total of 2.75.
David Price ($8,400)
I think Price has a better chance of reaching 4-5x value than the two more expensive pitchers. He’s reached at least forty points in five of his last six starts. The Twins have hit the least amount of home runs against lefties this year. He’s always pitched slightly better away from Fenway Park.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx ($6,200)
Do I love this play? No, not really. In fact, if he were playing any other team I would say forget it. But he faces the Royals tonight. How bad are the Royals? They have lost eight straight, have a 10-28 record at home, and most sadly, they have scored thirty-six runs in June (it is the 20th). They are hitting .186 this month. This is simply not a good team. ABD has a tiny walk rate and a lower FIP than his ERA. He’s been an extreme ground ball pitcher so far in his limited opportunities at the major league level. Despite a 4.85 run total, ABD could be a decent pitcher in GPPs.
Gio Gonzalez, Lance Lynn
Dominic Smith ($3,000)
First base isn’t looking good today, so why not just look to Coors Field? Smith has been a talked-about prospect who’s seeing some action at the major league level this year. He’s currently slotted to hit fifth. He has had some great years in the minors. He’s two years removed from a 90+ RBI season in AA. He’s still trying to figure things out at this level, but he gets major/minor league pitcher Chad Bettis who owns a .344 xwOBA against lefties and a low strikeout percentage, which bodes well for Smith.
Wilson Ramos ($2,700)
This is a bit of a contrarian play, but Ramos has been hitting well and still comes with a low price tag. Morton has been really good, but not invincible. He’s given up three or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. He has struck out righties much less than lefties this year. Ramos has a five for thirteen (.385) average against him. If you want to look elsewhere, Mike Zunino looks good.
Eric Thames, Mike Zunino
Asdrubal Cabrera ($4,000)
He has two hits in three straight games. Chad Bettis has a 90 MPH fastball which Cabrera likes. He’s hitting a .352 wOBA against the pitch. His ISO is at an all time high so far this year. Deploy him if you can. Daniel Murphy is a nice pivot.
Daniel Murphy ($3,600)
This guy is no cheap egg. He’s hitting very poorly to start his season. He gets to warm up with some practice swings against Trashner tonight. He hits six for twelve (.500) against The Trash and is hitting behind Bryce Harper in the five spot. Despite rain warnings, it is still supposed to be warm and Trashner allowes a 45.2% fly ball rate to lefties. He has hit sinkers consistently, a 92% contact rate against the pitch, Trashner’s favorite. There’s a lot of people who will be off him because of his struggles.
Gleyber Torres, Dee Gordon
Todd Frazier ($3,900)
Third base may be the deepest position tonight. I’m just going to stay at Coors though. Frazier has been slumpy, but Bettis is definitely a slump buster. He’s allowing a .364 wOBA this year to righties. The poor guy just really struggles at home. If you want to look away from Coors, you have Rendon, Devers, and Beltre in decent spots.
David Freese ($2,100)
With the platoon advantage, Freese appears to take over for Moran tonight, apparently taking his spot in the order with. Brent Suter has been pitching quite well, but he has given up more home runs in less innings this year than last. In fact, right-handed bats hit a .202 ISO collectively against him. Freese has been great against lefties the last few years. Let’s see if he can take advantage of a 86 MPH fastball.
Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers
Didi Gregorious ($4,000)
Gregorious has gotten a hit in five straight and looks for another tonight against Felix Hernandez. Poor Squire Felix is getting pounded on the road this year with a 7.71 ERA. Lefties have hit him particularly hard. Seven of twelve home runs have come against lefties in less at-bats. A .350 wOBA and .248 ISO only makes it evident that Gregorious should have a good game at the plate. He has favorable splits tonight and owns a 1.0 OPS in the last seven games.
Trea Turner ($3,900)
Surprised I didn’t go to Coors? Me too haha. Turner went four for four with a home run last night, and he’ll try for a similar effort against Mr. Trash. In a large sample size, Turner has hit a .384 wOBA against sinkers. He does have a large ground ball rate against the pitch, but he also hits them for the second farthest distance on the team. He’s two for five (.400) so far against Cash.. Trashner.
Jean Segura, Brock Holt
Brandon Nimmo ($4,300)
Yup… Look Nimmo is underrated. This dude has a 1.0 OPS on the year right now! Remember when Conforto was “the guy”? Sure, he very well could be down the road, but Nimmo is an all-star for sure (I hope he starts over Markakis). His splits have him at a 300+ average and 1.0+ OPS. He has four home runs in his last seven. Call me crazy, but $4,300 is too cheap for this hitter in Coors.
Josh Reddick ($2,700)
Reddick has favorable splits tonight and Eovaldi has struggled hard (albeit, he’s pitched against strong teams). He is allowing a .379 xwOBA to lefties and Reddick has .333 average going for him in the last week. He’s also five for eleven (.455) against Eovaldi in his career.
Craig Gentry ($2,200)
I really wanted to be on Kiermaier tonight, and he perhaps has more upside, but he’s 0-5 with 5ks against Morton. If Gentry is hitting leadoff, he could provide some value for your roster tonight. Gio is an intimidating pitcher, but the O’s are still predicted to score 3.7 against Tampa’s 2.9. Unfortunately, all the low-cost value plays for outfielders seem to be facing established starters.
Juan Soto, Brett Gardner, Kevin Kiermaier
|6/20/18 MLB FD Value Plays||June 20, 2018|
About Last Night…
So I’m a little bit of a hypocrite for repeatedly warning of weather delays. I ended up short on the cash line because of the postponement. To be fair, it was canceled as I was watching The Incredibles 2. Great movie, don’t regret the decision to watch it during crunch time. The rain at Wrigley and the doubleheader game were annoying to keep up with. Anyways, Brandon Nimmo crushed it. The Mets crushed it in general and were pretty low owned in the GPP I was in. Suarez was in line for the win until a blown save happened. Bauer was again the better choice to roster against Cole. Kansas City only scored three on the night and busted against Texas like I imagined. I definitely had high hopes on the Dodgers yesterday. Unfortunately, things didn’t go my way. Oh well, it happens right?
Slate Summary :
Back to a full slate. We have a handful of games with a 9 run implied total. The Coors game is 11.5 right now, and today, I’m going to look more toward Colorado’s hitters rather than New York. In fact, the Rockies have a humongous 6.2 expected run total. The Cubs-Dodgers game could very well see some rain again today, so be careful and check the status before lock. Teams such as the A’s, Rangers, and Mets all have inexpensive hitters in good spots. We have Verlander and Sale as a one-two punch at pitching, followed by a small collection of adequate pitchers, and then some exposable hurlers.
Justin Verlander ($11,500)
The Rays have an implied total of 2.13 against Verlander. He is arguably the safest pitcher tonight against an anemic Tampa lineup. Only Ramos has a good history with fastballs at ~95 MPH of the regulars. Opponents are hitting a .229 wOBA against his heater. Most of this lineup is also cold right now.
Mike Clevinger (9,300)
There is really nowhere I want to go other than Verlander honestly. There aren’t any appetizing matchups on paper for cheaper pitchers. Hamels is maybe the lowest I’d go. Clevinger has been pitching well and gets some strikeout upside against the White Sox. He has limited home runs which is good against this power-heavy lineup. The ChiSox deploy a bunch of lefties and Clevinger has limited left-handed bats to a .218 average with one home run.
Chris Sale, Luke Weaver
Tyler Flowers ($3,400)
Flowers has been on fire against lefties this year. A .469 average and 1.4 OPS against lefties should be a welcomed sight against Jaime Garcia. He has also fared better on the road so far. He’s given up less than three runs just four times this year. Kurt Suzuki would be an alternative for $2,700, and he is pretty much in the same boat as Flowers. Ian Desmond is another option.
John Hicks ($2,500)
Hicks has been hitting in the middle of the order since Cabrera’s injury. Tonight he squares off against Sal Romano, who has been very exploitable. Hicks is hitting .353 in his last fourteen games and has done almost all of his damage to righties. You have two bopping catchers in Russel Martin and Alex Avila who are near minimum salary that could help your lineup as well.
Ian Desmond, Kurt Suzuki
D.J. Lemahieu ($4,100)
The Deej faces everyone’s favorite lefty, Jason Vargas. He’s allowing a .348 xwOBA to righties and Lemahieu has a .433 wOBA against lefties. Vargas has a combined ~60% pitch usage of curveballs and sinkers. Let’s see how that goes tonight.
Ian Kinsler ($3,300)
Matt Koch has allowed a monstrous .444 xwOBA to righties. Kinsler hasn’t been an offensive force but he’ll hit leadoff against Koch with favorable splits. His slugging is .443 against righties this year and he has an unsustainable .212 BABIP. Koch currently has a 1.9 HR/9.
Asdrubal Cabrera, Jace Peterson
Adrian Beltre ($3,100)
Obviously, if you can afford Arenado, go for it. But the way this slate is, I would put pitching as a higher priority. I like Story better also. Beltre is cheap and will hit cleanup against Jason Hammel. Hammel hasn’t been blown up lately, but the run total in Kansas City is still high, and it’s gonna be hot with some light wind blowing out. Beltre hit a home run yesterday, and there’s no reaosn to think he won’t have some loud at-bats today.
Chad Pinder ($2,200)
Pinder is a relieving play at only $2,200. Eric Lauer is just bad and Pinder owns a .381 wOBA against lefties. He also has a 1.1 OPS in his last seven games. He should be hitting near the top of the order behind some power-hitters.
Nolan Arenado, Colin Moran
Trevor Story ($4,800)
Remember the story about that new shortstop the Rockies had in 2016? Well now he’s actually the real deal. Story is hitting .351 in his last fifteen games and has demolished left-handed pitching. Six of his fifteen home runs have come against them, in less than half the at-bats. Jason Vargas is bad and should feel bad. I would love to roster him if I end up being able to afford him.
Andrelton Simmons ($3,200)
Simmons has been in a funk, but the guy has a 96% contact rate. Koch has an enormous 46.5% hard contact rate. Simmons has a .353 wOBA against righties. Simmons also has a good history against the velocity of fastballs Koch throws.
Trea Turner, Amed Rosario
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,200)
Yup I’m going there tonight. Stanton still has been successful against lefties and his price is down. Marco Gonzales is serviceable but he doesn’t own elite numbers. He’s hitting over .300 in his last seven games.
Kike Hernandez ($2,600)
Hernandez has been hitting better against lefties lately. Montgomery has held his own, but on a night like tonight, we need value. Just WATCH FOR RAIN!
Brandon Guyer ($2,100)
Guyer has hit much better against lefties and finds himself in the five hole tonight. Carlos Rodon isn’t a threatening pitcher. I’ll take my chances tonight with Guyer at near minimum.
Charlie Blackmon, Shin-Soo Choo, Rajai Davis
|6/19 MLB FD Value Plays||June 19, 2018|
We have a ten game slate on this fantastic Monday which includes the second game of a back-to-back and a game at Coors. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN AFFECTING GAMES, ALWAYS MAKE SURE TO STAY AWARE OF WEATHER. Gerrit Cole is on the mound and has been usurped as the priciest pitcher by Bauer. We have a couple other established pitchers/aces on the mound today such as Jacob deGrom at Coors, Zack Greinke, and Miles Mikolas. A lot of these games are pick ems or close to them. The Mets have been scuffling, but they came to life a bit against Arizona, and now go to Colorado and they’re pretty cheap. The Royals have an implied total of 4.82 runs against Bartolo Colon, despite a weak on-paper lineup. The Dodgers are not too expensive and they face Tyler Chatwood, who has greatly limited home runs, but he is giving up as many walks as strikeouts.
Trevor Bauer ($11,200)
Back to Bauer. I like Cole as well, but I’m going to stick with Bauer. He’s given up five home runs on the year opposed to Cole’s eleven. He’s now gone double-digit strikeouts in five of six starts, and his WHIP was one or less in four of them. He just struck out twelve White Sox and faces them again where their boppers are still struggling. WATCH FOR WEATHER!
Andrew Suarez ($6,600)
I’ll place a bet that Suarez will become a good pitcher soon, as his major league career is just starting. He already is having a decent year. His front-numbers, a 4.92 ERA and a 2-4 record don’t look good. But his FIP and SIERA are lower than his ERA, and he’s never had an ERA north of four in his minor league career. He owns a .83 WHIP at home. Miami is one of the worst teams against lefties with a .662 OPS. The Giants are in the top three in the Vegas line tonight.
Gerrit Cole, Bartolo Colon (GPP, 5.6k against a putrid Royals offense)
Wilmer Flores ($3,400)
Flores has hit 15+ homers the past three years. The power will come, and he should get some help tonight with the altitude. He has a 50% fly ball rate against lefties. He has a low .202 BABIP which should easily increase. Flores is known as a lefty specialist, and Tyler Anderson is nothing special. At $3,400, Flores will be in Coors hitting in the middle of the lineup.
Yasmani Grandal ($2,800)
Grandal is cheaper than usual and is six for eleven (.545) with a 1.6 OPS against Chatwood. The Cubs’ pitcher has really struggled with command and is allowing a .395 xwOBA to lefties. Grandal has a good walk rate and a .211 ISO for the year on a surging Los Angeles team.
Yulieski Gurriel, Yadier Molina
Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,300)
Yes, another hitter in Colorado. Cabrera is dirt cheap when considering he’s playing at Coors. He’s been in a slump but came alive during the last two games in Arizona. Tyler Anderson has predictably been worse at home and currently has given up 1.45 HR/9 this season. Cabrera hits well against all of Anderson’s pitches except curveballs. Cabrera is admittedly a play mostly because of his price and power potential at Coors.
Jedd Gyorko ($2,500)
Gyorko has a small, but advantageous BVP sample against Pivetta. He’s four for five (.800) with a home run. Gyorko has a .302 average away from home. Pivetta just got owned at home by Colorado and is only a year removed from a campaign where righties hit .308 and twenty home runs against him. It’s gonna be hot in Philly and righties love hitting at Citizens Bank Park.
Jose Altuve, Rougned Odor
Max Muncy ($3,900)
This man is on fire. To go with his raw power, he has an incredible walk rate, and that’s great news against Tyler Chatwood. His OPS is over 1.0 away from Dodger Stadium and has a .409 wOBA against righties. Chatwood allows a .395 xwOBA to lefties this year. Hot weather and a 45% 95MPH exit velocity against righties lead me to believe there’s a good chance Muncy sees some drivable pitches tonight.
Colin Moran ($2,700)
If Moran continues hitting cleanup, he should be a good value play today. Chacin allows a .354 xwOBA to lefties and has oddly enough struggled more outside of Miller Park. Moran has favorable splits tonight and a high contact rate on the year. He also has a good chance to walk and score as he has some good hitters behind him. He’s hit two home runs in his last seven games.
Alex Bregman, Todd Frazier
Didi Gregorius ($4,100)
Shortstop is quite thin in my opinion and if you want to lead towards Amed Rosario ($3,100) at Coors be my guest, but I want to see more from him before I commit. Gregorius is finally hitting the ball again, hitting .400 in his last seven games. He faces Erick Fedde who last started (and struggled) against these Yankees. Gregorius owns a .363 wOBA against righties and actually has a higher hard contact rate than teammate Giancarlo Stanton. Random side note- he has seven of his nine stolen bases on the road this year.
Elvis Andrus ($3,200)
Again, this is a shallow position tonight. Andrus is coming off a DL stint and didn’t perform well in his rehab assignment. But those minor league pitchers may be better than Ian Kennedy right now. Andrus came out of nowhere to hit twenty home runs last year, and if his tiny sample size this year proves to be consistent, he should show similar power. Kennedy allows a huge 40% hard contact rating. His fastball is a big part of that. Opponents are hitting a .403 wOBA and a 49% hard contact rate against it. Sure we’re at Kauffman, but the Rangers are expected to score 4.76 runs on a scorching day.
Carlos Correa, Amed Rosario
Michael Brantley ($4,100)
Yup, I just went past the Bronx Bombers to get Brantley. First of all, CHECK FOR RAIN. Second of all, Brantley is in good form, and has struck out only twice in his last twenty-five at bats. Covey has been great, but he has pitched worse away and he’s lucked out a bit with a .344 BABIP. Brantley has a four for six (.667) average against him. I have a feeling Covey is going to regress as he keeps starting (he was atrocious last year in limited action), and Brantley should be low owned.
Brandon Nimmo ($3,800)
Tyler Anderson has reverse splits and has allowed a .370 xwOBA to lefties. Nimmo is ridiculously priced, even against a lefty. Despite struggling against southpaws, he has a 55% hard contact rate against lefties. In a very limited sample size, Nimmo has a .667 wOBA against ~91 MPH fastballs with an average distance of 336 feet. Let’s not forget about the Rockie’s mediocre bullpen that will inevitably come into the game. Anderson has yet to go more than six innings at home.
Joc Pederson ($2,800)
Wat? Pederson is $2,800? Sign me up. Seven home runs and a 1.5 OPS in his last fourteen games? a .360 average and 1.2 OPS on the road? a five for eleven (.455) average against Chatwood? Ok, you get it, Pederson is in a good spot here.
Matt Kemp, Shin-Soo Choo, Corey Dickerson
|6/18 MLB FD Value Plays||June 18, 2018|
About Last Night…
German racked up double-digit strikeouts, but Sanchez crushed it last night. Koch managed to limit damage against him. Stanton is frustrating, though Hicks came through. Also, Andujar ended up hitting fifth. If he was projected there I probably would have been on him more. Matt Duffy seems to either hit a double or have multiple hits in every game. His price has been static around ~$2,600. Inciarte didn’t swipe a bag, but he did hit a home run. All in all, it was kind of an unspectacular night of baseball. Today will be more exciting!
We’re back again with a full slate. Fridays are for baseball! Lots of offense is apparently about to be seen. Four games are set with implied totals of 8 runs or less. One game goes to eleven. Rockies-Rangers is apparently going to be a slugfest. There’s going to be plenty of offensive options, and one game that looks interesting is Reds-Pirates. Pittsburgh is expected to score just under five runs. With this in mind, the most expensive hitter is $3.2k. The Yankees are throwing a Double-A pitcher and the Rays are only expected to score 3.84, less than their runs/game. That seems a little fishy to me. These could be some teams which could save you money as you pay for some exceptional pitching. Kluber leads the way, and though he is $12k, he seems to be a pretty safe play. He may not fetch sixty points, but fifty certainly isn’t out of the question. In fact, he has fifty+ points in three of his last five starts. Who else can we pivot to? Let’s see.
Corey Kluber ($12,000)
If this were a six-game slate, I would probably advise fading Kluber. But he is scorching hot and facing a Twins team that he’s owned in the past. Twins hitters have hit .154 with a .483 OPS. I see Paxton being an option also, as Boston has surprisingly not done well as a team against lefties, but I would much rather face Minnesota than Boston. The Twins haven’t been daunting. They just demoted Sano, and Ehire Ruth is their best hitter in the last week. I strongly urge you to not overthink Kluber in cash games.
Ross Stripling ($9,100)
Stripling is by far my favorite value pitcher on the slate. He has been lights out. He’s always had this ability, the Dodgers just rarely ever gave him the opportunity to start. Here are his point totals from his last five starts (starting with the most recent): 42, 42, 55, 60, 52. He is only $9,100 with these numbers! The Giants barely avoided getting swept by the Marlins and look a little weak offensively and they have a much worse record on the road. Speaking of, they just finished a sixteen inning game and are traveling from Miami to Los Angeles. They just lost a bopper in Longoria. This has the looks of a great spot for Stripling.
Zack Godley ($7,200)
I’m not a fan of reaching this low at pitcher, but Godley is one pick who could provide for your lineup. Sure, he’s regressed considerably this year, but he has a sparkling 2.93 ERA at home. For whatever reason, he has prevented walking batters at Chase Field, whereas he owns a 1.83 WHIP away. He needs to rely on his curveball tonight. The top four projected hitters in the New York lineup own a wOBA under .300. This whole team crushes sinkerballers though. You have to bank on pitch selection and the struggles of New York recently. They are 1-9 in their last ten. Thirty to thirty-five points is still fairly realistic.
James Paxton, Gio Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman
Edwin Encarnacion ($3,900)
His price is below $4k because he has struggled a bit, but this is a matchup we want to exploit. Gibson allows a 36% hard contact rating and doesn’t have a high strikeout rate. Encarnacion is seven for nineteen (.368) with four home runs.
Matt Adams ($3,400)
Adams has been on a tear, hitting .500 in his last seven games. Tonight, the Nats are hitting against Aaron Sanchez, who has been pretty vulnerable. Adams has a .985 OPS against righties, while Sanchez is cooking up a .373 xwOBA to lefties. Here’s to hoping he’ll ahead of the seven spot.
Kurt Suzuki ($2,700)
Suzuki is in line for a dreamy matchup against Clayton Richard. The southpaw has understandingly been worse against righties, and Suzuki is thriving against them. He hits well against all of Richard’s pitches except the sinker. But with that, he has a lower than average chance of hitting a ground ball with the pitch. He has favorable splits tonight and could be hitting fifth tonight.
Eric Hosmer, Yulieski Gurriel, Wilson Ramos
Jose Altuve ($4,100)
Altuve has been in his usual form and faces Jacob Junis, who allows a .343 xwOBA toward righties. The wind is blowing out a bit to left, and the Astros have one of the highest run totals on the night with a 5.37. Altuve hits all of Junis’s pitches well. Altuve also has had an OPS over one when playing away.
Josh Harrison ($3,200)
Harrison provides a decent floor and will likely hit leadoff in a sneaky game where the Pirates are expected to score almost five runs. Harrison has been hitting well and has hit Matt Harvey even better with a five for eleven (.455) average. Harvey has found himself again, meaning he’s finding ways to give up earned runs. This Cincinnati bullpen isn’t lights out either.
Rougned Odor ($2,300)
I am in no way a Odor fan, but he is almost minimum priced against Bettis. The Rangers have the highest total in the slate, and for good reason. He’s given up five earned runs in three straight starts. Odor has a small history against him, hitting two for three with a triple and a home run. Bettis has a low strikeout rate, and hitters are hitting his favored fastball with a .397 wOBA. You might notice Odor’s pitiful ISO, but you maybe haven’t seen that he’s still hitting balls with a 40% 95+ MPH exit velocity and a 45% fly ball rate. It’s also supposed to be ninety-five degrees at Arlington. It gon’ be hot. Try Odor in a GPP.
DJ Lemahieu, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jesmuel Valentin
Nolan Arenado ($4,600)
Texas is hot, Arenado is facing a lefty. You know what to do. Look at Trevor Story too. Alternatively, look for Bregman at Kansas City.
Adrian Beltre ($3,300)
It would be my pleasure to roster a cleanup-hitting third baseman for $3,300 with a run total of 5.42, don’t mind if I do. Beltre has hit .500 in his last seven games with three straight multi-hit games. Bettis allows a .353 xwOBA to righties. Anthony Rendon is a good pivot play at the same price.
Colin Moran ($2,500)
There’s actually a few cheap third basemen in good spots. Duffy squares off against a minor leaguer, Candelario is only $2.9k, Valbuena is predicted to slot in the heart of the order, and we have Moran who is also supposed to be a feature in Pittsburgh’s lineup today. Harvey is allowing a .406 wOBA toward lefties this year, and they are collectively enjoying a .309 ISO against the Dark Knight. Moran has a .790 OPS in his last fifteen games.
Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, Jeimer Candelario
Trevor Story ($4,300)
No brainer here. If you can get him…. get him. This mythical beast has a 1.5 OPS in his last seven games. Seven of his thirteen hits have gone for extra bases. He has a 1.0 OPS against lefties. And yes, IT IS HOT!!!!! I would prefer Story over Arenado to be honest, third has a lot of good, cheaper plays.
Marcus Semien ($2,900)
I have an antipathy toward Semien. I just don’t think he’s good, and there’s definitely no bias there. Ok fine, he’s not terrible, and he’s only $2.9k. It’s supposed to be blowing out slightly in Oakland, and Skaggs allows a 36.6% hard contact against righties. Semien squares up fastballs of Skaggs’s speed well, hitting a .439 wOBA against it. He’s sort of boom-or-bust, but he’s a cheap one-off at a meh shortstop position.
Nick Ahmed ($2,800)
Ahmed has a 1.0 OPS in his last seven games. He’s facing Seth Lugo, who is kind of a question mark. He flourished last game, but he has been a bullpen arm for most of the year. He probably won’t go past six innings, and the Mets have a bad bullpen. The problem with Ahmed tonight is he’ll probably be buried in this lineup and hit lower in the order. Shortstop is a position to spend on tonight.
Manny Machado, Dansby Swanson, J.T. Riddle
Shin-Soo Choo ($3,700)
Ok guys I’m tired of saying it. Colorado-Texas will probably an offensive game ok. They could also be a bit chalky. Choo usually isn’t. He’s hitting almost a 1.3 OPS in his last seven and will probably lead off tonight. When Bettis gets pulled, in comes a bullpen with a combined 5.28 ERA. Choo has a .356 wOBA against righties and a 47% chance of hitting a ball with a 95+ MPH exit velocity. It’s going to be difficult filling outfielders with $4k+ outfielders, so Choo is a pretty good solution.
Corey Dickerson ($2,800)
Dickerson is arguably the best value play of the night. He has scuffled, which is why he’s so cheap, but even with that he’s still hitting .310 on the year. Harvey has a hard time getting lefties out, evident from his .399 xwOBA. He’s going to be in trouble against this lefty-heavy lineup. Dickerson hasn’t shown the power this year, but he has a high contact rate, and specifically, a high line drive rate. He does have a .343 ISO against fastballs around 94 MPH and a near-fifty percent hard contact rate. Harvey throws the heater 44% of the time. Austin Meadows is also a fantastic play tonight and has a bit more upside, but he just has less of a track record.
Noel Cuevas ($2,000)
Choo-choo. All aboard the value train. Cuevas hasn’t shown much at the major league level, but he in minimum-priced in Arlington. His ISO seems to be quite higher in the minors. He had a .175 with fifteen home runs last year over ~500 at-bats. As always, let’s see what the lineup looks like before we commit to anything, but he is a sure option if in the lineup. Kike Hernandez squares off against lefty Derek Holland if you’d rather go on that train route.
Rhys Hoskins, Austin Meadows, Joey Gallo
|6/15 MLB FD Value Plays||June 15, 2018|
About Last Night…
I went to the Astros-A’s game last night and it was quite an offensive showing by Houston. Cole did what I figured last night. He made hitters look silly, but he also gave up some shots. Gattis and Davis both had two home runs. My guy Blackburn got smashed. I also accomplished my lifelong goal of getting a game ball, a foul hit by Gurriel! As for the rest of the slate, the Cardinals bombed against Eric Lauer and Juan Soto continues to impress. As for this lineup, all players were featured yesterday. Hernandez ended with 9.2 points, not 6, and Turner ended up being a good play. Molina and Gyorko failed to come through in great spots. Bauer really carried me yesterday. He was much higher owned than Cole to my surprise. He has finally gotten to the peak that was expected of him for so long. I remember him coming up with the Diamondbacks and just thinking he could end up being a bust. I’m glad that’s not the case. He is having a great year.
We finally get a smaller main slate today with just four games. Right away, I see that there is no clear idea of which pitcher to roster. I would argue that no one is in a great spot. Snell is up against the Yankees, Price against the surging M’s, and Anibal Sanchez is expected for some regression, making his start with San Diego a bit risky. I don’t see there being a chalky starter on Fanduel. All games are set at least 8.5 runs. The Mets-Diamondbacks game seems like it could be a tad overlooked, and that’s where we’re going to get some value. Let’s look at the picks.
Domingo German ($7,000)
You’re gonna have quite a decision in picking a pitcher tonight. Nothing really stands out on paper. German probably is best suited for GPP. I don’t like Price against the Mariners, they’re hitting a bunch of home runs. Snell could be a great play, but he could also get crushed. The Rays have a decent strikeout rate and many of their hitters are struggling right now. C.J. Cron is two for his last sixteen. That’s good news since German has reverse splits so far this year. There’s not much else pop in this lineup. Ramos has a .606 OPS in his last seven and Carlos Gomez is two for twenty-two. The wind is blowing out to right and so lefties have an advantage, but German is limiting them to a .280 wOBA. He is risky, but so are all these other options.
Anibal Sanchez ($6,300)
Sanchez has been a surprise so far for the Braves. That’s likely to end soon, however. He has a 2.37 ERA but a 4.17 SIERA, a 4.91 FIP, and a .212 BABIP. That doesn’t mean we can’t squeeze one more start out of him. He has the Padres tonight and they have a 4.00 implied run total. Like the Rays, a lot of Friars are in cold streaks. Unfortunately for Sanchez, Hosmer is not one of them. This matchup will then depend on the lefties against Sanchez. They are hitting a collective .381 xwOBA against him. Lefties will be in the top of the order, will Sanchez be able to limit them?
Blake Snell, David Price
Freddie Freeman ($4,800)
You should really strive for paying up at first today. If you can, try to get Freeman or Goldschmidt. I’m picking Freeman because Goldschmidt has much worse splits at home. Ross allows a .370 xwOBA against lefties. On paper, Freeman should crush Ross’s fastball. Hitters have a .395 wOBA against it, and Freeman himself has a .593 wOBA and .541 ISO (!!!). He also has decent stats against sliders, Ross’s putaway pitch.
John Ryan Murphy ($2,600)
Murphy is basically a poor man’s Goldschmidt right now. He hits lefties well, and lookie, we have Jason Vargas on the mound. He is hitting lefties with a .900 OPS and five of his eight home runs have come against them. He’s cheap and in the middle of the lineup. He already has a two for four history against Vargas. The Mets also have the worst bullpen in the slate.
Paul Goldschmidt, Wilson Ramos
Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,900)
There’s really not much to play with at second. If you want to try Albies or Torres, go for it, but I would rather save salary for other positions. Cabrera makes the most sense out of these cheaper options. Matt Koch is not pitching well against righties or lefties. Cabrera has home run upside and especially in this matchup. Koch has by far the highest hard contact rate on the day. His FIP is higher than his ERA and his strikeout rate is virtually nonexistent. Cabrera has been cold, but he’s a near lock at a barren position.
Joey Wendle ($2,400)
Wendle doesn’t have much upside. He does done better against righties and away from home. Hitters have a tendency of hitting balls hard against German, but Wendle has a meager .100 ISO. He’s gotten at least three points in eight of his last nine games. He’s really the only option as of now if you need the extra salary.
Eduardo Nunez, Possible alternative starters
Todd Frazier ($3,400)
Frazier is again, facing Matt Koch with a huge hard contact rating. He has scuffled (like the rest of this New York lineup), but he also has two home runs in his last seven games. He has struck out a lot, but we don’t need to worry about that with Koch. Frazier hits for the longest average distance on the team against fastballs around 91 MPH.
Cory Spangenberg ($2,600)
Spangenberg is one of the only other Padre hitters besides Hosmer that has been hitting well as of late. He has a .850 OPS in his last fourteen games. Sanchez has a .381 xwOBA allowed against lefties.
Rafael Devers, Matt Duffy
Jean Segura ($4,100)
Segura has been hitting very well for a while now. In fact, he has over a .400 average in his last thirty games. David Price is no easy matchup, but if we look deeper we can see that he isn’t totally invulnerable. He has a high walk rate this year? How many walks? About the same amount as 2014 when he pitched almost 250 innings. He’s having some issues with his control. Many of his starts have come against hit-or-miss teams (Tampa four times, Toronto twice, ChiSox). Seattle is a formidable foe, and Segura doesn’t need to rely on home runs, which is good since the game is at Safeco. He has smashed lefties, and we’ll see how Price fares throughout the game.
Nick Ahmed ($2,800)
Ahmed has had an off-and-on year and right now he’s on. An OPS near one in his last seven games, he will be up against gassy Vargas. He’s hitting much better against lefties. Plug him in if he’s featured in the lineup.
Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,200)
I always have a small knot in my stomach when I think about rostering Stanton. He makes or breaks a lineup. He is facing the southpaw Snell, and has a home run against him. Stanton connects fastballs of Snell’s velocity with a .427 wOBA and an average of 344 feet. He’s at a bit of a discount, but Judge is in play as well. Both are cheaper than the Boston outfielders. King Felix has a decent 4.04 ERA at home, and they are at Safeco. The wind is supposed to blow out at Yankee Stadium. Nonetheless, you’re going to want to grab one of two of these AL East boppers.
Brandon Nimmo ($3,200)
Nimmo is very affordable tonight against Koch. He has not slowed down much and he is hitting a .950 OPS on the year. He’ll be in the heart of the order and has hit just as well away as home. Koch is allowing a .396 xwOBA to lefties.
Ender Inciarte ($2,700)
Inciarte has a good chance of getting on base tonight. Ross has always had control problems and although Inciarte doesn’t have a high walk rate, he has a low strikeout rate as well. This could mean that Inciarte will have pitches to hit and will make contact. He has a 86% contact rate this year. If he reaches, he has a good chance of stealing a bag. Ross is a few years removed from allowing over thirty stolen bases. Enciarte is by far going to surpass his career-high stolen base total, and he might even lead the league by season’s end.
Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Hicks, Michael Conforto
|6/14 MLB FD Value Street||June 14, 2018|
About Last Night:
I mentioned Trout yesterday and he subsequently hit two home runs. Folty left early because of tricep tightness and it really messed with the lineups I had with him. He was pitching great. Eduardo Rodriguez was the other pitcher I rostered and he was an out away from a quality start before being pulled. Max Muncy is suddenly a machine. Correa was an obvious play here. Believing in Detroit didn’t end well. Neither Martin or Castellanos did much. Let’s give a round of applause to dfsdudes for winning second in last night’s Fanduel quarter GPP!
Side note- I’m going to be at the Astros-A’s game tonight and I’m excited to see the world champs play and see Cole pitch! We are amidst another large main slate, today with nine games. The Yankees currently have the highest implied total, with the Reds and Royals again not far behind. A lot of teams are in the threes today, such as the A’s, Angels, Braves, and Pirates. We have four pitchers priced above $9,000 on Fanduel today. Is it worth paying $11,800 for Cole today? Or are there other pitchers we should look out for; Let’s check it out.
Trevor Bauer ($10,800)
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m probably going to fade Cole tonight. If I’m wrong on this one, I’ll be witnessing it live. Is he going to be good? Yes. Do I think he’s going to score 55-60 points? I have a hard time believing it to be honest. He’s been great, don’t get me wrong, but he hasn’t recorded double-digit strikeouts in seven starts. He has pitched well against the A’s this year, but I just don’t see full value. I still have no dispute if you decide on rostering him, he is a safe play and a necessity for cash. Bauer is facing a much worse team which has also struggled even more as of late. This team has two home runs in the last seven games. Bauer has compiled double-digit strikeouts in four of his last five starts.
Luke Weaver ($6,700)
This spot was reserved for Kenta Maeda, but I doubt he goes deep into this game since he just came back from the DL. Dave Roberts has limited innings for his starting pitchers all season, frustratingly. Weaver will not a be a high-owned pitcher, but he has good odds to provide some value and salary relief. He currently has a lower FIP and SIERA than his ERA. His walks are a hindrance, but the Padres are not exactly a patient bunch. Weaver has a good chance to reach six innings and receive a win. The Cards are the biggest favorite in Vegas’s money line. I think Caleb Smith is also an option against the suddenly flat Giants.
Gerrit Cole, Caleb Smith, Dylan Covey
Yadier Molina ($3,000)
First base surprisingly doesn’t seem very deep tonight. I’m going to advertise Molina for your lineup. He has hit lefties well in his career and is up against one with a 41.4% contact rate in Eric Lauer. He’s giving up a .371 xwOBA against righties this year. In the heart of the order, Molina will likely be able to knock in some runs. If you have the money, look up Joey Votto.
Austin Romine ($2,800)
Romine has been yet another surprise for the Yankees this year, and he could very well have a part in their 5.40 implied run total. The Nats are throwing a minor leaguer on the mound who has struggled a bit in Triple-A this year. He has limited home runs against him in his career, but this is the juggernaut Yankees. Romine is a cheap option in a great lineup.
Joey Votto, Austin Barnes
Scooter Gennett ($4,000)
I was going to pick Dozier against a lefty, but Matt Boyd has pitched fairly well and hasn’t allowed many home runs this year. Enter Gennett, who squares off against Jason Hammel. He is pitching better than usual, but that’s not saying much. He allows a .422 xwOBA against lefties. Gennett is still hitting and will have good shots against the Royals’ pitching.
Jedd Gyorko ($2,800)
Like I said, Lauer is pretty bad. Gyorko is really good… against lefties. He’s hitting .400 against them. But listen to this. He has three home runs in twenty-five appearances compared to two home runs in one hundred appearances against righties. I like Gyorko’s odds tonight.
Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy
Brian Anderson ($3,500)
His price is ballooning, but for good reason. Anderson has been hitting great, evident by a 1.1 OPS in his last fourteen games. He crushed MadBum the other night and sees a less decorated lefty tonight in Andrew Suarez. Suarez has the look of a good pitcher down the road, but he has struggled in his last several starts. He has unfavorable splits playing away from home and righties are hitting .303 against him. Anderson is hitting lefties harder than righties and I still think he will outproduce his price tonight.
Justin Turner ($3,200)
Turner is eventually going to up his stats for the year, and that certainly could become the case tonight. Hamels is good, I get it. Turner is still hitting southpaws decently after he hit .380 against them last year. Righties have a .369 xwOBA against him. Hamels also gives up a lot of hard contact. All of his pitches come with at least a 34 hard contact percentage. Turner is a bargain at this price.
Mike Moustakas, Cory Spangenberg
Carlos Correa ($3,900)
Whoa whoa whoa! I just paid $2,700 for this shortstop yesterday, why is he so expensive??? This is Carlos Correa, a twenty-three year old who vies for the top player at his position in the major leagues. A big reason why he hasn’t quite been as dialed in this season is his strikeout rating which currently is at a career high. Well, tonight he faces Paul Blackburn (whom I like very much), who has a nonexistent strikeout percentage. No, really, he has a 9.7 strikeout percentage. He also has a low walk rate, meaning that Correa will see strikes. Balls are going to be hit. Blackburn’s sinker is his best weapon, and Correa hits a .398 wOBA against it. It’s going to be a matter of whether he can lift one out, or if he can get a ball away from the defense.
Ehire Adrianza ($2,800)
I seriously cannot believe I’m recommending this player. He was on my Giants for a few years and he had to be the closest thing to an automatic out that I’ve ever seen (besides pitchers). Here I am, telling you that he is hitting a 1.5 OPS in his last seven and is hitting .351 against lefties… He hit a grand slam yesterday.. HOW??? He also has hit four for seven (.571) against Matt Boyd. Shortstop is very thin, try to pay up if you can.
Trea Turner, Scott Kingery
Aaron Judge ($4,800)
If you can get to him, Judge would be my favorite star outfielder to grab tonight. What does Judge do to sinkers and changeups? Oh not much really, just a .420 and .425 wOBA. This machine literally hits sinkers 342 FEET ON AVERAGE. These are Fedde’s favorite pitches, maybe not after tonight. If you want to look elsewhere, George Springer, Tommy Pham, and Matt Kemp are some good higher-end options.
Brett Gardner ($3,000)
Lol. I’m back on the Gardner train. He’s down to $3k despite having a 1.0 OPS in his last fourteen games. His OBP is at .358 and Fedde has a 1.5 WHIP in Triple-A. Gardner is also hitting right in front of Judge. These two would complement each other well in a stack.
Kike Hernandez ($2,400)
I remember last time I talked about Kike. I said he was putrid against lefties this year, and I was right on that day. He’s starting to up his numbers against lefties, though, and if he is hitting fourth I’ll like him a lot against Hamels. Against righties, he is allowing a .369 wOBA. Damn that’s fine. One more time, consider Kike.
George Springer, Rhys Hoskins, Robbie Grossman
|6/13 MLB FD Value Plays||June 13, 2018|
About Last Night:
Carrasco mowed through the White Sox and Musgrove had a good outing. Sadly, Giolito didn’t get lit up, and it was only Brantley that put some points up. McCutchen had some good at-bats, but the rest of the lineup was meh. Jake Bauers introduced himself to MLB last night, wow. Brian Anderson looks phenomenal right now, he’s a bright spot for Miami. Speaking of, MadBum’s outing went pretty much as I expected. He needs to get himself together before he faces legit offenses. Teoscar Hernandez is another player who’s establishing himself this year.
We have a fun fifteen game slate on a Tuesday which I’m to decipher. Almost all run totals are in the fours for each team. As for pitchers, we have a few good arms, some unknowns, and some gas cans. The Yankees, as of now, own the highest implied run total, despite being half a run under their runs/game. The Royals, Reds, and Tigers have much higher implied totals than usual. The Rockies and A’s have been significantly dinged since they are facing Nola and McCullers. Let’s try to get through this huge slate, shall we?
Mike Foltynewicz ($9,000)
Nola could wind up being a good play against the Rockies and Mikolas against the Padres, but I have a natural pull toward Folty. He has been in good form all year. In fact, he has allowed more than two earned runs once all season. This matchup against the Mets is more appetizing than some of the other matchups for premier pitchers. New York’s best hitter in the last seven games is Brandon Nimmo, with a .235 average. This team is currently 13-21 at home, and Folty has equal stats playing away from Suntrust.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,500)
Although Rodriguez hasn’t gone long in games, he’s been very consistent. He’s gotten at least thirty fantasy points in six of seven of his last starts. The Orioles have the second-worst OPS against southpaws. Machado has struggled greatly as of late, and that certainly plays into why Baltimore has lost five straight. All signs indicate that Rodriguez is going to have his best year yet, and his recent success could definitely resume tonight against Baltimore.
Aaron Nola, CC Sabathia
Jose Martinez ($4,200)
His price is way up, but you can also picture him being $5,000 with how much he’s been mashing. An OPS of nearly 2.0 with five home runs in his last seven games. The starter for the Padres is expected to not go long at all into the game, meaning it will be a bullpen game for San Diego. With how hot he is, I don’t think it matters who is pitching against him. He’ll probably be a bit chalky in a full slate, but I wouldn’t mind paying up to him for cash games.
Yasmani Grandal ($3,000)
Grandal’s price has come way down as he hasn’t matched his hot start to the season. Today we find the Dodgers against Big Sexy and that makes the Dodgers sexy tonight. Grandal has punished Colon before, a three for nine average (.333) with two home runs. The secret with this matchup? Colon throws a sinker 60% of the time. Get this; Grandal leads the Dodgers with a .440 wOBA, .377 ISO, and 343-foot average distance off sinkers. The Dodgers will probably be popular tonight, but Grandal might be less so because of his recent struggle.
C.J. Cron, Salvador Perez
Whit Merrifield ($3,200)
I have a feeling that this Reds-Royals game is going to be overlooked. This game has a 9.5 implied run total and is in Kansas City! That’s how bad these two pitchers are. Merrifield is quite affordable at $3,200 and Sal Romano is just bad. The Royals don’t strike out and they’re gonna get good looks against Romano. Merrifield hasn’t hit well at home, but interestingly enough, twelve of his fourteen steals have been at home. He may be better suited for GPP, but I can easily see Merrifield getting one or two extra-base hits with accompanying runs. If you can afford him look for Dozier against a lefty at Comerica or Scooter Gennett against Ian Kennedy.
Ben Zobrist ($2,900)
Zobrist has actually been doing well at the plate this season. He squares off against Chase Anderson who allows a .338 xwOBA to lefties. At $2,900, you’re getting a good bat hitting up in the batting order in an uber-good lineup expected to score almost five runs. For you fellow BVP hooligans like myself, Zobrist has hit nine for seventeen (.529) with three home runs and a 1.6 OPS against Anderson.
Scooter Gennett, Daniel Descalso
Anthony Rendon ($3,600)
Third base is absolutely loaded tonight. There are so many picks I like at this position. I wish this article just dealt with third basemen because I could probably write an article just on this position. Rendon crushes lefties and has hit pitches that Sabathia throws really well. I have a feeling this game could become a high-scoring affair, despite each pitcher having a low hard-contact rate. If you want to look elsewhere, Bryant, Moustakas, and Muncy are some names I’d look for at this price range.
Jeimer Candelario ($3,000)
This batter is cheap. Too cheap. He’s $3k and hitting in the heart of the order against Odorizzi. He gives up a .359 xwOBA to lefties and Candelario will be hitting from the left side. He’s hitting a .498 wOBA against fastballs of 90-92 MPH, and Odorizzi’s is nothing special. I would have no qualms rostering Detroit’s man at the hot corner tonight. At this range, you could get Turner, Duffy, or Valbuena as alternatives.
Mike Moustakas, Justin Turner (if starting)
PSA!!! Carlos Correa is $2,700 tonight. That is all.
Brandon Crawford ($3,400)
If you don’t want to pick 70% owned Correa tonight, maybe Crawford is the pick for you. Trevor Richards has a 44.1% hard contact rating and…. Yea Crawford, Scherzer. All jokes aside, Craw had a down game finally, and maybe some players will look elsewhere considering this and his price increasing. I think in a GPP setting, Crawford can shine once again. What worries me is Richard’s changeup. That seems to be his best pitch, and Crawford has struggled against that pitch. It’s a different story with the fastball, however. For a safer play, look for Chris Taylor against Colon.
Carlos Correa ($2,700)
Look, if you don’t consider this guy for cash, you scare me. Mengden has been good, but he just got blown up and is due for a bit of regression. He’s hitting in the middle of the order with the wind slightly blowing straight out. He has a five for ten (.500) history against Mengden. Put him in your lineup unless you’re in some large-field GPP.
Trea Turner, Chris Taylor
Mike Trout ($5,100)
Despite Martinez and Benintendi looking good tonight, Trout is by-and-large my favorite outfielder to pay up for. He’s Mike Trout and the other guy is Mike Leake. Leake has pissed me off quite frankly, but he’s bound to get destroyed eventually. Maybe it’s a team that’s seen him quite a bit already. In fact, the Angels as a team have hit .320 against Leake. He gave up only three to Anaheim the last time he played him, but he only went five and a third. I would go all the way down to Brantley or Yelich if I couldn’t roster Trout.
Christian Yelich ($4,300)
Yelich has been hot and he is up against ball thrower Tyler Chatwood. Cubs-Brewers is an important series right now, and both teams have grade-D pitchers on the mound for it. Yelich has always had a good eye and could find himself walking tonight. This man Chatwood has more walks than strikeouts this year. He has also given up a .397 xwOBA to lefties. Maybe a stolen base isn’t out of the question either tonight.
Nick Castellanos ($2,900)
This is a toss-up between him and Leonys Martin. Both are too cheap tonight against Odorizzi. Martin has been in better form as of late, has seen Odorizzi well, and has the platoon advantage, but Castellanos has a better career track record and sees the pitches that Odorizzi throws better. I think Castellanos may be better for GPP, while Martin is a safer pick. Either way, this Detroit lineup is cheap and you should look for a one-off that could help with salary relief.
J.D. Martinez, Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen
|6/12 MLB FD Value Plays||June 12, 2018|
Today brings us an eight-game slate with unspectacular run totals. Interestingly, Vegas has the Red Sox scoring almost a run less than their runs/game. The Indians have the highest implied total whereas the Padres sit at 3.27. As for pitching, we have a few high priced hurlers and some decent mid-range pitchers that we could use. I like the Indians a lot and the Giants offer some nice value tonight. Let’s look at today’s picks.
Carlos Carrasco ($9,700)
Carrasco has been frustrating to roster this year, but he gets a good matchup against the White Sox. So far, Carrasco’s ability to earn fantasy points really depends on the number of strikeouts. The White Sox strikeout at around 24% since the start of last year. Jose Abreu doesn’t have a good history against him (0-10 last year) and the rest of the lineup doesn’t have daunting numbers against him. Moncada and Anderson worry me a little, but I would still roll with Carrasco. It’s hard to envision him not getting a win when Giolito is pitching on the other side.
Joe Musgrove ($7,500)
I’m going to go with the Musgrove hype. I figured he would have a breakout season with the Astros some year, and now, at least so far, it looks like it’s going to happen with the Pirates. The Diamondbacks (namely Goldschmidt), have been on fire, but they just returned from playing at Coors. Yes, Goldschmidt has decimated baseballs lately, but let me notify you that his last six games have been away, at AT&T Park (kills the Giants) and Coors. At home, he has an average of .160. The Dbacks lineup has a .691 OPS at home and strike out the seventh most at home. He’s not the safest pick, but I’m willing to gamble on Musgrove
Jose Quintana, Jack Flaherty
Edwin Encarnacion ($4,100)
Assuming he plays, Encarnacion would be a great bet to destroy a baseball. He prefers right-handed pitching and is stepping to the plate with a 1.2 OPS and six home runs in his last fourteen games. Giolito doesn’t have the highest hard contact rating, but he hurts himself badly with so many walks. With protection behind him, Encarnacion is probably going to see some pitches to drive. You also have that average bullpen to look forward to. If he can’t go, I would look for Jose Martinez, Mitch Moreland, or even Yonder Alonso.
Buster Posey ($2,900)
As a big Giants fan, I get irritated with Posey’s lack of power these days. Sure he’ll always hit for average, but his ISO has been diminishing for the last few years. For you non-Giants fans, just look at how he is hitting second these days. Despite this, I think he is a good play today. He has crushed lefties in the past, and the only reason he hasn’t this year is because he’s seen southpaws like Kershaw and Corbin more times than he’d like. Wei-Yen Chen has been pretty bad and serves up a .340 xwOBA to righties. Posey has a safe floor tonight with the possibility of getting some extra-base hits.
Jose Martinez, Kendrys Morales
Starlin Castro ($3,200)
Castro has been hitting with a .900 OPS in the last seven games and squares up against Madison Bumgarner. Bumgarner is obviously a good pitcher, but he’s still working his way back from a lengthy DL stint and, quite frankly, isn’t the same guy that he was a few years ago in my opinion. He struck nine I believe in one of his two rehab starts and then came up and only had three Ks against the free-swinging Dbacks. I will believe differently when I see it. Castro has owned Bum with a fourteen for thirty (.467) clip and is hitting leadoff.
Ben Zobrist ($3,000)
There’s a lot of value at second base tonight, but I don’t see any great spots for any of them. If you need to save salary, though, look at this position. Zobrist is in the midst of a slump and hasn’t fared well against Junior Guerra. Guerra is having a good year, but he still walks batters at a decent rate. Zobrist is likely hitting in front of Anthony Rizzo and will see pitches to hit. But if he doesn’t he will likely walk in this game. Zobrist has always had a good eye and he is working with a .376 OBP this year. Guerra is also allowing a .349 xwOBA to lefties.
Ian Kinsler, Jace Peterson
Rafael Devers ($2,900)
I don’t think I’ve ever rostered Devers, but tonight could be the night for it. If you’re unable to snag Jose Ramirez, Devers could produce at a way cheaper price. Bundy has been very good over the course of the season, but we’ve seen him get hit hard too. He is also giving up a .387 xwOBA to lefties. Devers has actually been hitting as of late, shown by his .300 average in his last seven games. He’s not a flashy play, but he is still in the Red Sox lineup and has good splits and a decent history against Bundy.
Evan Longoria ($2,600)
Longoria has been in a little funk, but he is hitting in the heart of the order against a pitcher who is simply just bad this year. Chen’s FIP is actually higher than his 5.86 ERA. Even with his recent struggles, Longo is too cheap in a great spot. Chen throws his 90 MPH fastball over half the time and opponents are hitting a .339 wOBA against it. Longoria is hitting a .398 wOBA against fastballs of that velocity. Maybe returning to Florida may play a part in tonight as well.
Kris Bryant, Luis Valbuena
Francisco Lindor ($4,400)
I’m going to declare that Lindor is probably my favorite play of the night. Some might turn him away due to a relative slump at the plate. I look at Giolito’s .430 xwOBA against lefties (!), his fastball which hitters have torched, and Cleveland’s run total, the highest on the slate as reasons to pay for Lindor.
Brandon Crawford ($3,100)
If you can’t spend up to at least Segura at shortstop, there’s not much there to roster tonight. Brock Holt could end up being a decent play, but I’m going to recommend Crawford tonight. I don’t think I need to elaborate on his hitting…. Ok he homered against Scherzer in DC, wowza!! But Crawford is going to be low-owned tonight since he is batting against a lefty. He somehow has a higher OPS against lefties so far this year. Chen has been good against lefties in the last couple of years, but these are not big sample sizes. Chen has gone an average of four and a third innings in his last six starts, opening the golden bullpen door of Miami relievers. I like Crawford a bunch tonight.
Jean Segura, Brock Holt
Michael Brantley ($4,300)
It makes my heart happy to see Brantley upping pitchers’ ERA again. He is such a great player and the Indians really have been needing him healthy the last couple seasons. Sadly, he is quite expensive these days, but if you can afford him, he’s batting against the aforementioned Lucas Giolito, who allows a .430 xwOBA against lefties. Brantley has a .443 wOBA against fastballs of Giolito’s velocity.
Andrew McCutchen ($3,000)
Cutch is way too cheap tonight. The man is hitting a 1.1 OPS in his last seven games, and I believe it was Strasburg he hit a home run against? The point is that he’s pretty dialed in right now. Against lefties, he has a .407 wOBA and .292 ISO. He’ll be in the middle of the order against Chen. He’s a great value play to save some money to use elsewhere.
Randal Grichuk ($2,500)
He’s gonna be chalky, but Grichuk has some advantages tonight. He admittedly hasn’t done great against lefties, but he is hot as can be right now and is facing Ryan Yarbrough, who is giving up a .333 xwOBA to righties. His favorite pitch, a sinker, is getting hit hard and Grichuk has the highest hard contact percentage against it in the lineup at 39.3%.
Andrew Benintendi, Tommy Pham, Jason Heyward
|6/11 MLB FD Value Plays||June 11, 2018|
About Last Night…
Last night was pretty frustrating. Quintana was an out away from achieving a quality start and he was pulled with two runners on before the reliever gave up a three-run homer. JD Martinez and Brian Dozier failed and brought me under the cash line for this GPP contest. Just as for the players, we can forget about yesterday and make corrections.
We have a five-game slate this evening featuring all AL teams. We have one ace on the mound and the rest of the pitchers are basically average or worse. Cole is the only pitcher with a SIERA under four in the last couple year excluding one exception, the Rays bullpen starter. You’re going to largely need Cole in cash games, but what hitters can we work around with his huge price tag? Let’s find out.
Gerrit Cole ($11,800)
No brainer. Cole is by far the best pitcher on the hill tonight. It is a little worrisome that he’s pitching in Arlington, but the K upside alone brings me to believe he will post a high score. He has been better this season, but his last few games have been against good offenses. Don’t get cute unless you’re in a large GPP. Even then, it’s hard to see these other pitchers rack up 35-40+ points.
Cole Hamels ($8,600)
It is hard to find a pitcher I like outside of Cole. Some of these pitchers have had upside of the 35-40 points I just mentioned, but I just don’t see it happening tonight. Then again, who knows, it’s baseball. Hamels would be my next choice, though I’m saying this reluctantly. He has pitched against Houston three times this season and has allowed no more than three runs in any of those starts. He has pitched well against Correa, Bregman, and Gurriel, three fixtures in the top and middle of the lineup. He’s throwing around a strikeout an inning and the Stros K at a decent rate.
Gerrit Cole (not a typo), Mike Leake, Jaime Garcia, Jalen Beeks
Matt Olson ($3,700)
He has gotten expensive, and for good reason. I remember finding any way possible to roster this guy last season. What a crazy stretch. Olson’s power is back on, with five home runs in his last six games. Hammel is allowing a .424 xwOBA to lefties on the year. We have mother nature letting the wind blow out toward right field tonight. I would argue that Olson has the best home run potential over any other first baseman tonight.
Evan Gattis ($2,400)
Ok, but Gattis knows how to park one too. He was one of the few who came through for me last night and I’ll gladly go back to him tonight. He has a ten for thirty-one (.323) average against Hamels with three home runs. Hamels has given up a .367 xwOBA against righties. He is a solid if not spectacular GPP play.
Justin Smoak, Sam Travis
Jose Altuve ($4,300)
It seems worth it to spend up to Altuve tonight. He has been in good form and will square off against Hamels. He has had a power outage but comes into Arlington with a 1.0 OPS away from Minute Maid Park. He has a .350+ wOBA against all but one of Hamels pitches, the cutter.
Jonathan Schoop ($3,000)
I have Schoop on my season-long team and he has let me down so far this season. His price has come all the way down to $3,000 and squares off against Jaime Garcia. Garcia has given up an earned run in every start this year and got torched by Detroit in his last one. Schoop has favorable splits tonight and has a .276 BABIP, short of his .340 mark last year. He’ll likely face positive regression as the season goes on, and this could be a spot where he succeeds.
Jed Lowrie, Joseph Wendle
Mike Moustakas ($3,800)
I’m a big fan of Paul Blackburn, but not from a DFS perspective. He had success last year but had a minuscule 9.2 strikeout rate in his limited action last year and his SIERA is up in the fives. The Royals are a low strikeout team anyways, so we should see a lot of contact in this one. The wind is blowing out toward right field and Blackburn will return from the DL trying not to make mistakes.
Danny Valencia ($2,600)
Valencia will likely be hitting cleanup again tonight and will see Garcia on the hill. Garcia is allowing a .346 xwOBA to righties and Valencia has hit lefties well in the past. He has some interesting stats this year. A BABIP lower than previous years, a higher ISO, a higher contact rate, and a lower strikeout rate. All of these yummy ingredients will surely help his primary stats throughout the year. He has a 450+ wOBA against fastballs of Garcia’s velocity and hits decently against his sinker. He’s a great value in a game where Garcia is supposed to greatly struggle.
Kyler Seager, Hunter Dozier
Manny Machado ($4,500)
This was a hard choice between Machado and Bogaerts, and either is great. I’m going with Machado for his current hot streak and overall better year. He has seen Blue Jay pitching well (4-11), and faces the aforementioned Garcia. Machado is tuned in to southpaws, with a .361 wOBA and .970 OPS this year against them.
Aledmys Diaz ($2,200)
I feel like this is deja vu. I don’t see much cheap value at shortstop, so I’ll once again turn to the Blue Jay for salary relief. He still has a .829 OPS against righties this year, and although David Hess has been admirable, he hasn’t gone deep into games. He’s up to a 5.30 SIERA and has a pitiful strikeout rate. I would find a way to pay up for Machado or Bogaerts, but if not possible, Diaz might get you a few points.
Xander Bogaerts, Jean Segura
J.D. Martinez ($4,800)
Martinez irked me last night, but I have fond memories when he rewarded me last year so I’ll have no vendetta. Benintendi instead took the limelight, but I have no problem with rostering Martinez today against Matt Boyd. He’s had a decent year, but he is a lefty and that means death against Martinez. Martinez has a .466 wOBA against lefties this year. He is hitting .348 at home as well.
George Springer ($4,100)
Springer is a good pivot from Martinez and also crushes lefties. Hamels has allowed a 38.5% hard contact rate and .367 xwOBA to righties. Springer has one less home run against lefties than righties in under half the plate appearances. Couple that with hitting leadoff and he’ll surely have plentiful at-bats. He is also 4-16 (.250) with three home runs against Hamels in his career.
Dustin Fowler ($2,400)
Fowler was seen hitting leadoff yesterday and didn’t score despite having two hits. He seems to be pretty streaky so far in his budding MLB career, but he is still cheap and is hitting against Jason Hamel. As mentioned with Matt Olson, Hammel is allowing a .424 xwOBA against lefties. He also has an OBP of over .400 in his last seven games. Hitting in front of some boppers, Fowler has another opportunity to rack up some points.
Khris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Canha
|June 7th, 2018||June 8, 2018|
We have a couple decent pitching options and lots of suspect ones. There are lots of exploitable match-ups in this ten game slate and to top it off, we have the AL East juggernauts with 5+ run totals. Look for the Cardinals, A’s, and Twins to put up some runs as well. Vegas seems to have lower implied totals for numerous teams that I have a difficult time agreeing with (namely, Seattle 3.34 against McCullers). Maybe this can create a few lesser-owned sluggers for you to exploit. Let’s check out the picks.
Jose Quintana ($8,500)
Quintana has a SIERA lower than his current ERA. He is pitching against the lowly Phillies. This offense is out of whack right now. Only two hitters have an OPS over .750 in the last seven games (Alfaro, Williams). Philly is a bottom ten offense against lefties and strikes out at a high rate. Quintana may not be the safest pitcher, but his upside is mighty appealing.
Jack Flaherty ($7,800)
The Cardinals come in as heavy favorites against the Marlins, always good for getting a possible six extra points from your starter. The Marlins strike out at a 24% rate and Flaherty has flashed k ability. Looking at Miami’s lineup completely asserts my thinking of playing Flaherty. He has fared exceptionally against righties and has limited lefties to a .317 xwOBA. The only hitter that worries me is Justin Bour, but he has had a power outage as of late.
Aaron Nola, Shohei Ohtani, Eduardo Rodriguez
Joey Votto ($3,900)
Votto is up against a struggling Jon Gray who has explained that his fastball is off. Barring some miraculous change, Votto could take advantage of the pitch which hitters have a .394 wOBA against. Votto sees fastballs well, and with his plate discipline, he should wait for a good pitch to hit. Gray has predictably done worse against lefties, and it’s only a matter of time until Votto gets his power stroke back.
Evan Gattis ($2,400)
A 3.76 FIP this year shows that Wade Leblanc is due for some regression. Gattis, though struggling with average, has four home runs in his last fourteen games along with a .864 OPS. Gattis’s history against Leblanc is what’s more appetizing. In a small sample size, he’s four for seven (.571) with two home runs. He’s always risky, but he’s also a cheap GPP play who will be largely unowned.
Matt Olson, Greg Bird, Jose Martinez
Brian Dozier ($4,100)
Dozier is the second baseman to look for tonight. Hector Santiago has an ERA over five and a WHIP of 1.64. He’s allowing a .388 xwOBA against righties this year. Dozier has somehow struggled against lefties this year but I would trust that his stats return to the norm throughout the season. The last two years he’s had an OPS over .950 against lefties. A Twins stack may be a good idea tonight.
Ian Kinsler ($2,900)
This was a toss-up between Kinsler and Nunez, but Nunez has struggled against lefties. I still find him to be a good play against the Tigers and their below-average pen. Kinsler has finally started coming alive for the last several games. He actually has been quite unlucky, evident by his BABIP which is much lower than his norm, even from last year. Ian Kennedy, that is all I have to say. Kinsler owns him and he is mightily struggling. The Royals bullpen isn’t much better than he is. If Kinsler remains hitting leadoff, he could have ample opportunities to get points for your team.
Jose Altuve, Eduardo Nunez, Jedd Gyorko
Eduardo Escobar ($3,300)
Sure Sano has more power potential, but Escobar has been raking with four home runs in seven games and an OPS near 1.5. Remember how I mentioned that Hector Santiago is bad? You want exposure against him tonight. He is a sinkerballer allowing a .375 wOBA against the pitch. Sano has a better track record against the pitch, but I’m going to rely on recent stats and trends. Escobar is cheaper and has been seeing the ball better.
Matt Chapman ($2,900)
Do I want to pick on Bartolo Colon? Of course not, but I will do what I need to win. Bart has had a pretty decent season so far, probably because of his low walk rate. The wheels are starting to fall apart, though. His WHIP is at 1.60 in his last two starts and that has partially caused his ERA to be over eight in that span. Chapman has been streaky, but he’s seen Colon well, a three for five (.600) with one home run. Colon’s most reliant pitch, the sinker, is arguably hit best by Chapman among all the A’s hitters. He has a .419 wOBA and .293 ISO.
Miguel Sano, Justin Turner, Luis Valbuena
Xander Bogaerts ($4,200)
Let me start by warning you that Bogaers has yet to hit a home run against a lefty. Why should you pick him? Well, he hit a home run yesterday, and unless Blaine Hardy somehow dazzles, much of Boston’s hitting will be against the top ten worst bullpen. Bogaerts has been hitting well (1.0 OPS in the last seven) and is right ahead of the home run leader, JD Martinez. He’s going to get pitches to hit.
Yairo Munoz ($2,800)
Munoz seems to be under the radar. He’s hit admirably and is up against Wei-Yin Chen today. Chen has given up a .341 xwOBA to righties this year, and Munoz’s two home runs so far have come against lefties (in fourteen at bats!). Munoz could be a sneaky pick and provide double-digit points in a game where the Cardinals are projected to score about five runs.
Carlos Correa, Chris Taylor, Scott Kingery
J.D. Martinez ($4,700)
Find a way to get him in your lineup. He is obliterating any ball coming his way. The ball likely coming to him tonight, a ~90 MPH fastball, has provided him with video game numbers. A .692 ISO with a 90% contact rate. He will be widely owned, but this is a night I don’t want to play without him.
Teoscar Hernandez ($3,400)
Hernandez really came out of nowhere and has given the Blue Jays a nice offensive boost stemming from last year. Sonny Gray comes into this game allowing a .368 xwOBA against righties and has given up a lot of contact lately. Hernandez has been on a roll with a 1.1 OPS in his last seven games. He has gone two for five (.400) with two home runs against Gray. Brett Gardner is another choice for $100 less.
Carlos Gonzalez (2,700)
I’m going right back to him today. You see his home run yesterday? He’s playing with some swag right now. Slated to hit fourth again today, he will be facing Sal Romano who is allowing a .336 average and .408 xwOBA against lefties. He has an ERA above seven in his last six starts. Gonzalez is too cheap to not consider.
Charlie Blackmon, Brett Gardner, Harrison Bader
|June 6th, 2018||June 6, 2018|