NFL Playoff Predictor

Playoff Predictor
12/22/20
Samuel Gebhart https://twitter.com/HTownAndDown96

Another Week come and gone and my second to last installment of my NFL Playoff predictions are here with lots of changes to both conferences as well as some new fantasy player value changes. Let me know what you think, and if this is the playoff bracket you could see going down!

Legend:
Fantasy Value Up: ↗
Fantasy Value Down: ↘
Fantasy Value No Change: −

1. Detroit Lions: 25 v Tennessee Titans: 46

Detroit bit the big one weeks ago. Yet still could not contain Derrick Henry on Sunday.

Derrick Henry once again reminded us why he is the king, and Ryan Tannehill lit up the skies simultaneously throwing for 273 yards and 3 pass touchdowns finally dethroning anyone who claims Tannehill is riding on the coat tail of Henry. (including myself) The Ball was spread around a lot, and though he didn’t throw the ball a lot, he was deadly accurate making multiple deep passes count. Despite their run heavy game, Tannehill has been relatively steady in his production and remains a top 10 option moving forward. There’s not too many negatives about this Tennessee offense, all of their starters ought to be reliable floor streamers week in and out with the exception of Jonnu Smith and 3rd team receivers who tend to have dry spells since Vrabel’s game script is generally pretty run heavy when the Titans lead by halftime.

As for the Lions, DFS stacks involving Stafford and one of his receivers continue to please. The battered yet determined Stafford is a once of kind leader, and one we don’t see too often, routinely playing through various injuries, his performance is remarkable, however he remains a fringe fantasy play especially for those in the championship game. Much like the Titans, this Lions team is starting to move to the ground game as its primary means of attack. D’andre swift has effortlessly cemented his role as lead back and continues to fill in with the help of legendary future hall of famer Adrian Peterson. However, Detroit fantasy owners should be weary of starting anyone on the ground against Tampa Bay in week 15 and their brick wall run defense. Look to Stafford to air it out again, especially to Hockenson and Marvin Jones who dominated his target share against Tennessee

Matt Stafford − Ryan Tannehill ↗
D’andre Swift ↗ Derrick Henry ↗
Adrian Peterson − AJ Brown ↗
Marvin Jones ↗ Corey Davis −
TJ Hockenson − Jonnu Smith ↘

2. LA Rams: 20 v NY Jets: 23

Jared Goff and the LA Rams were the laughing stock of the league after losing to New York Jets.

For the first time in the 2020 season the Jets have a win, and they earned it against one of the best defenses in the league, nonetheless. Unfortunately for Jets fans this does not come with too much excitement given they’ve since been pushed back in first round draft placement. Honestly…I wouldn’t think too much of it. Teams have down weeks sometimes, this one probably the result of “easy opponent” mindset. You can best believe that Sean McVay and co will tighten up all ends of their game plan as they coast into playoff contention. However, this fault in the chemistry and overall lack of explosiveness on offense is enough for me to rethink their playoff potential. If it is enough for a team like the Jets to expose, its enough to keep you out of the race for a ring. Oh boy was it was embarrassing.

Despite the win, Sam Darnold and company really did not get much going on offense. Sam threw only his 6th passing TD and garnered another fumble too. Frank gore got a TD on the ground, but that was a fluke score. Both teams played very modest and un-interesting games. Fans on both sides went home upset. Quite frankly, in terms of fantasy I’d say its best to pretend like this game didn’t even happen. Most of these guys are desperation plays anyways and if you’re on your way to the championship you probably have some better options.

Sam Darnold ↘ Jared Goff −
Frank Gore − Cam Akers −
Jamison Crowder − Robert Woods ↗
Denzel Mims − Cooper Kupp ↗
Chris Hogan ↘ Tyler Higbee −
Christopher Herndon ↘ Gerald Everett −

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 31 v Atlanta Falcons: 27

The Atlanta Falcons once again could not seal the deal. As Tampa Bay overcame at 17 point deficit to win on Sunday.

Down by 17 late in the game, this victory by Brady seemed all too familiar. Granted this was just a regular season divisional game and not the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, the Falcons easily exposed Tampa’s holes and rose to 24-7 before Tom Brady once again proved to us why he has earned the title “The Goat”. Now 43, Tom Brady has put the Buccaneers In the fight for what would be his 10th title run. Despite the Falcons pitfalls, both Matt Ryan and Brady shared similar passing stats and should maintain their pace of airing it out as both teams routinely play from behind.

Leonard Fournette filled in well for the COVID/Reserve designated Ronald Jones. But fantasy owners should expect Lenny to take a back seat when Ronald Jones returns. The expectation crushing Todd Gurley was also irrelevant, and interim Falcons HC Raheem Morris alluded to Ito Smith being the premier back from here on out too. Lots of mix ups late in the season, certainly not the last for this team going into the off season. For now, the array of passing threats from both teams remain top streaming options. Both quarterbacks throw the ball frequently, accurately, ensuring a modest game from nearly every 1st and 2nd team passing option even at their floor.

Tom Brady ↗ Matt Ryan −
Ronald Jones ↗ Todd Gurley ↘
Leonard Fournette ↘ Ito Smith ↗
Mike Evans ↗ Julio Jones −
Chris Godwin ↗ Russell Gage −
Antonio Brown − Calvin Ridley ↗
Scott Miller − Hayden Hurst −
Rob Gronkowski −

Have a great holiday! Enjoy yourselves and be safe! Look for my next Playoff Predictor article same time next week!

Any questions of comments?

Find Samuel on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/HTownAndDown96

Or at DFSCheatSheet here! https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Here’s to a fantastic holiday season!

NFL Playoff Predictor

NFL Playoff Predictor
12/15/20
Samuel Gebhart https://twitter.com/HTownAndDown96

NFL PLAYOFF Predictions (As of week 14)

Note from the editor,

Samuel, our graphics guy, here at DFS Cheat Sheet loves the NFL playoffs. In turn he’s going to be writing a series of playoff predictor articles each week leading up to the actual NFL playoffs! Thank you Samuel. Enjoy! – Chris Robin

One week closer! Surprisingly, nothing has changed for my outlook on the AFC. The Chiefs are still making strides across the league at every turn and should not be underestimated despite the (once perfect) record from ANY team. The NFC however is an ever-changing gauntlet of teams ready to put someone on notice on any given Sunday. With that being said… here are my thoughts on a few of the biggest matchups of Week 14, and some fantasy player value changes moving into the 2nd round of Fantasy playoffs… Tell me what you think! Who would you like to see? Could you see this Super bowl happen?

The defending Super Bowl Champion Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to assert their AFC dominance once again.

↗ Fantasy Value up
− Fantasy Value the same
↘ Fantasy Value down

Houston Texans: 7 v Chicago Bears: 36

Any remaining glimmer of hope that the Texans would make it out of this season with their dignity left was finally crushed. How easy did Bill O’Brien really get off by just getting fired? It’s embarrassing. This team’s defense is embarrassing. Aside from Zach Cunningham, I’d be scared to stream anyone from it. The Offense does not look too promising anymore either. In addition to the non-existent run game, the receiving corps is on its last legs too with the recent loss of Kenny Stills and Will Fuller. Watson made it clear post game that he intends to start the last 3 games of the season, and his top 10 performances should remain consistent. Fantasy owners should expect him to put more of the game on his shoulders as he has many times before. But be weary of inexperienced receivers still establishing chemistry this late in the season. Now is no time to get cute with the lineups… You have better options.

The Chicago bears however have rejoiced with their first win in months after falling from 5-1 to 5-7 prior to this game. Now sitting at 6-7 the always-confused-QB-room is still in the fight for a wild card playoff berth. Do they get it? No, if you ask me. But that won’t stop Trubisky from being as dialed in as we’ve ever seen as he fights for a contract, and his first shot at the post season. His fantasy value, as well as David Montgomery’s especially will continue to rise as they have some favorable matchups on tap, especially for the run game.

Chicago Bears QB Mitchell Trubisky

Deshaun Watson ↗ ↗ Mitchell Trubisky
Keke Coutee − ↗ Allen Robinson
David Johnson ↘ ↗ David Montgomery
Duke Johnson − ↗ Darnell Mooney
Jordan Akins − ↗ Jimmy Graham

Pittsburg Steelers: 15 vs Buffalo Bills: 26

Was this the last time Juju dances on an opposing field logo? I sure hope so. Mike Tomlin and co finally have their game script cracked for the 2nd time, maybe this time it’ll be enough to change things up. Obviously, you can’t keep making Big Ben throw 50 times a game. But given their matchups on tap, and the production from James Connor, they probably will. Speaking of which…is James Connor even in the NFL still? The last game he got more than 50 yards was week 11 against a bottom 5 Defense, and before that it was week 7. No TD’s since week 8. Hasn’t been targeted as much for passes recently. And I get it… He has been some nursing some stuff, but he is back finally, and next week’s favorable matchup for Connor does not make me feel any more confident in starting him. Meanwhile, the committee of wideouts is sure to continue seeing their fair spread of targets as Ben fights for his chance at another title before he hangs it up.

Buffalo’s story is not much different. They are one of the best teams in the league that everyone is sleeping on. Their record came to them in a different order than the steelers, but realistically they’re almost the same team. They are also not really running the ball that much right now. When they do, it is a committee operation. Neither can be trusted. Josh Allen looks fantastic, mobile, strong. He’s a top 5 QB right now. Stefon Diggs looks fantastic. He’s a top 5 WR right now. Cole Beasley even… in the top 25. I mean….Sean McDermott and his defensive knowledge and weapons on offense really should be raising eyebrows at this point. This is a Superbowl Contending team. All their starters are doing great. They have some tougher matchups up next that will be the real test of their will. Go with your gut. Start your studs. Bills are getting it done.

Buffalo Bills WR Stefon Diggs

Josh Allen ↗ Ben Roethlisberger −
Stefon Diggs ↗ Juju Smith-Schuster −
Cole Beasley − Chase Claypool ↗
Devin Singleterry ↘ Dionte Johnson ↗
Zach Moss ↘ James Connor −
Dawson Knox − Eric Ebron −

Baltimore Ravens: 47 v Clevland Browns: 42

Call it a down day for the Browns. Call it a rebound game for the Ravens. Whatever. Ravens got a lot of work to do if they want to make the post season still. And the browns once again reminded us that they’re not the browns they used to be. Ravens star RB Lamar Jackson once again lit up the back field reinforcing once again that he is not a good passer. 11 out of only 17 pass attempts were caught, but he had 2 Rushing TD’s and 124 rush yards. More than JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards combined. So… in terms of fantasy, if run game matchup looks good and Ravens O-line continues to collapse, Lamar should be good. On the flip side however, this game script renders almost every other skills player on the team irrelevant and extraordinarily boom or bust depending on TD’s. Even the likes of Mark Andrews have seen the lowest of the lows. Be careful streaming anyone but Lamar.

As for the browns, Baker Mayfield commanded another awe-inspiring performance late in the game. Throwing for 343 yards, 3 Total touchdowns, 28/47 attempts. One of only 3 games on the season with 35 or more attempts though. Granted the Baltimore pass defense isn’t all that great. They also let up 213 total yards to Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt combined, both of whom scored too. The loss of OBJ has not slowed down Baker, or the offensive powerhouse mind of Stefanski at all. And so long as Baker keeps passing TD’s, everyone should fare relatively well moving forward. He now has 3 straight games with at least 2 passing TD’s and 250 or more pass yards in each. In 12-man leagues especially, baker should be worth considering for streaming. The only 2 folks I’d be weary about are Hunt and Hooper. Hunt is back to inconsistency, just like last year behind Chubb. We expected that, and he’s only ever been a confident start against poor defenses. As for Hooper…Baker just isn’t a TE targeting man. Any Cleveland TE should be an absolute last resort.

Cleveland Browns RB Nick Chubb

Lamar Jackson ↗ ↗ Baker Mayfield
JK Dobbins − ↗ Nick Chubb
Gus Edwards ↘ − Kareem Hunt
Mark Andrews − − Jarvis Landry
Marquise Brown ↘ − Rashard Higgins
Devin Duvernay ↘ ↘ Austin Hooper

Did Samuel miss anything?

Any questions or comments?

Find Samuel on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/HTownAndDown96

Fantasy Playoff Must-Haves!

Fantasy Playoff Must Haves
12/5/20
Samuel Gebhart https://twitter.com/HTownAndDown96

A note from the editor,

The fantasy football community is special. It’s supportive, positive and even helpful. Along the way certain people stick out. There are thousands of interactions a week. Sometimes hundreds in a day. The willingness to help others is what I find beautiful. In recent months Samuel Gebhart reached out and asked how he could be of assistance. A selfless act by a man who wanted to get involved. In turn, Samuel is now our graphics guy! After some time he got the itch. The itch to write! So editing and publishing his first article was the least we could do! Thank you Samuel. We appreciate your hard work.

Fantasy Football season playoffs are rapidly approaching, and with the trade deadline come and gone in most formats you’re probably trying to evaluate if you got what it takes to make a run for the title. Or maybe you’re headed for the toilet bowl title! Who knows, but if you’re like me, you have at least one or two leagues in contention. Below you’ll find your league-winner guys with the best playoff outlooks. Players who are going to get you through the gauntlet. This article pertains to weeks 14,15 and week 16 match-ups, and will not include bonafide stud’s like Patrick Mahomes, or Dalvin Cook. If for whatever reason you have them and are not sure if you should start them or not, you’re probably not in playoff contention anyways.

QUARTERBACK

Josh Allen (PIT / DEN / NE)

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

I know I said, “No Stud’s”. But for the first time in a long time, the AFC East looks competitive again! Despite Buffalo’s tough week 14 matchup against the league best Pittsburg Steelers, The Bills seem primed for their first division title in 25 years. Fortunately for Josh Allen fantasy owners, the 2 final rounds of playoffs (Denver and New England) really offer a chance for the 3rd year star to shine as he continues to fight for Buffalo’s 2nd straight playoff appearance. As it stands now, Allen is currently the No.2 QB overall and is on track to throw for 4500 yards with a game average of roughly 280 passing yards. Now sitting at 7-3, Josh Allen and co. do not seem to be deterred one bit by the 5th hardest schedule in the league. Fantasy owners should continue to set-and-forget Allen come playoff time, especially in the final 2 weeks when he faces The Broncos and fellow division rival The Patriots, who both allow more than 220 pass yards a game on average.

Tom Brady ( MIN / ATL / DET)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady

If the last 20 years have taught us anything, it’s that nothing is scarier than Tom Brady coming back for blood. Newly dubbed “Tampa Brady” continues to raise the bar at the age of 43 week-in and week-out. Currently sitting happily as the #6 QB overall, Brady is in the running for what would be his 4th league MVP award. And it only gets easier from here. Tampa Bay Buccaneers have put together arguably one of the scariest receiver corps the league has seen in the Superbowl era. Whether or not you believe it is besides the point. With the Greatest quarterback of all time under center, Brady fantasy owners (especially those with a QB + WR stack) should feel safe knowing that Week 14,15, and 16 are all against bottom 10 ranked pass defenses.

Jared Goff ( NE / NYJ / SEA )

Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff

Sean McVay and the Rams have really been through the gauntlet the first half of the season. In large part, they have their defense to thank for still being in the fight for a division title. Nevertheless, things start to simmer down on the offensive side of the ball on the back end of the season. Most of their match-ups feature opposing teams with powerhouse offenses that make up for defensive inefficiencies. To make up ground, and to compensate for their committee running back corps, expect Goff to throw the ball more frequently and for more pass yards almost effortlessly against the win-less Jets, and the 32nd ranked Seattle Seahawks pass Defense who have allowed a Top 10 QB rating 6 of the first 9 games.

Three other quarterbacks to consider!

Aaron Rodgers ( DET / CAR / TEN)

Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers

Ben Roethlisberger ( BUF / CIN / IND )

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger

Ryan Tannehill ( JAX / DET / GB)

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill

RUNNING BACKS

David Montgomery ( HOU / MIN / JAX)

Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery

Unfortunately for 2nd year starter, 2020 has (So far) been a year to forget so-to-speak. Through the first 10 weeks, David Montgomery has yet to break 500 yards on the season and currently has only 1 TD under his belt, routinely aggravating fantasy owner’s nationwide. It is tough rationalizing throwing him into the RB1 spot in any league format. However… Futures are bright for the young back as he continues to lead the backfield of arguably the most dysfunctional QB room in the league. Bears offense should continue to check-down to Monte as well as pass it off, especially during the 3 Fantasy playoff match-ups where game scripts will lean on the run heavily. Between Houston, Minnesota, and Jacksonville, 29 rushing TD’s have been allowed through the first 10 weeks, and all 3 rank in the bottom 10 for rush defense routinely allowing top 10 running back performances to opposing teams.

Joe Mixon ( DAL / PIT / HOU )

Cincinnati Bengal’s RB Joe Mixon

Not unlike David Montgomery, Mixon has left fantasy owners frustrated. Especially after coming off his 2nd 1100+ yard season. Expectations were high for him considering he has entered his contract year, but the usually cautious Bengals offense continues to struggle moving the ball down the field. However, also not unlike Monte, Joe Mixon has some favorable fantasy playoff match-ups and owners should be able to relax knowing he will surely continue to pick up speed much like previous seasons wherein he started off slow. Prior to his foot injury, Mixon averaged 20 attempts a game, 8 more than interim starter Giovani Bernard’s average. Providing he is good to go, Mixon should retain high-end RB2 value headed into weeks 14-16 against the 8th easiest opponents for fantasy RB’s.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ( MIA / NO / ATL )

Kansas City Chiefs rookie RB Clyde Edwards Helaire

Andy Reid and Veach probably didn’t plan on starting Clyde that much this year at all when they drafted him, but after unexpected circumstances forced their hand, it was a welcome surprise to see him fall into place so effortlessly. As if any running back in Andy Reid’s system hasn’t before. The Rookie out of LSU currently sits in the top 15 running back rankings and should be heavily leaned on as the chiefs effortlessly roll through these last few weeks to what they hope will be their 3rd first round bye week in a row. Providing he isn’t still nursing any lingering injuries; Clyde should be a solid RB2 based on his touches alone through the playoffs against a stout Miami and New Orleans Defense. Fantasy owners who make it to the championship game should expect a potential game-winning bounce back game against an Atlanta Defense that currently ranks 31st in average points-against per game.

Ronald Jones (Min / ATL / DET )

Tampa Bay Buccaneers RB Ronald Jones II

Kenyan Drake ( NYG /PHI / SF )

Arizona Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake

D’Andre Swift ( GB / TEN / TB )

Detroit Lions rookie RB D’Andre Swift

WIDE RECEIVER

Tyler Lockett ( NYJ / WAS / LAR )

Seattle Seahawks

If inconsistency and Tyler Lockett do not go together best than I’m not sure what does. At least from a fantasy perspective, he always seems to be in the top 5 argument one week and is irrelevant the next. Maybe Russel just spreads the ball by weeks. Who Knows? What we DO know, is despite the Megatron-like DK Metcalf’s dominance, sometimes Defenses figure him out. Take week 10 against division rival the LA Rams as an example. DK was held to 2 receptions and less than 30 total yards. Guess who subsequently had a pretty fair game? Yeah.. And it only gets better from here. First facing the Jets in Week 14, and 2 stout defenses in week 15, and 16, expect Lockett to be leaned on more as defensive backfields continue to attempt to contain DK in these fiery match-ups as Seattle hunts for another division title in arguably the most competitive division in the league.

Allen Robinson II ( HOU / MIN / JAX )

Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson II

Within the mess of things that is the Chicago Offense lies Allen Robinson who continues to prove himself. Few receivers can experience drastic shifts in QB play and maintain the level of play Robinson has. Now with Mitch Trubisky back in the mix, it appears as if the pro bowl wide out should continue to maximize his potential. Especially after falling from 5-1 to 5-6, expect Trubisky to work hard to not only secure a chance at a wild card birth but also keep his job.

Brandin Cooks: ( CHI /IND / CIN )

Houston Texans WR Brandin Cooks

In less than 1 week from what might be the greatest performance of his Career, Texans WR1 Will Fuller received a suspension for the remainder of the season on abuse of the NFL’s policy on PED’s. Furthermore, the day before this news broke, it was announced that veteran wide receiver Kenny Stills had been released. Now, defacto WR1 Brandin Cooks looks to receive a substantial number of vacated targets from Deshaun Watson who has been stunning teams across the league this last half of the season. Too bad for Houston fans it took this long. Now sitting 3rd in the AFC South at 4-7, its hard to imagine any chance the Texans making the playoffs still remains. But that does not deter Deshaun and the rejuvenated offense as he continues to offer crowd pleasing performances and remain one of the most consistent QB’s in the league who’s averaged 291 yards and 2.5 passing TD’s A GAME. Despite the match-ups, Brandin Cooks’ floor is now high enough that he should be safe to stream for the rest of season as a WR2 with a lot of upside.

A.J. Brown ( JAX / DET / GB )

Tennessee Titan WR A.J. Brown

Jarvis Landry ( BAL / NYG / NYJ )

Cleveland Browns WR Jarvis Landry

Terry McLaurin (SF / SEA / CAR )

Washington Redskins WR Terry McLaurin

TIGHT END

Darren Waller: ( IND / LAC / MIA )

Las Vegas Raiders TE Darren Waller

Most TE’s are fairly interchangeable. Everyone has their week on any given Sunday but generally speaking no one really becomes a regular rest of season set-and-forget type guy outside of the top 5 or 6 TE’s. Waller, however, is one of those guys who has broken that threshold. Unfortunately, The Raiders have experienced a variety of difficulties recently, including an abundance of offensive turnovers. His fantasy playoff match-ups are not particularly great either. But at the end of the day, all things considered, when Carr is in a pinch and the run game is struggling, Waller is one of his go-to check down targets. So, in terms of Tight End’s, Waller can be trusted to put up modest but useful numbers in these few games as he has throughout the season despite what the match-up might look like. Providing the turnover problem is resolved, Darren Waller’s high snap count and target rate is reassuring that he usually isn’t a Touchdown dependent fantasy asset. Although it does help.

Hunter Henry: ( ATL / LV / DEN )

Los Angeles Chargers TE Hunter Henry

Much Like Darren Waller, Hunter Henry sees a large snap count and target percentage. Even when Phillip Rivers was at the helm, Henry has always maintained a pivotal role in the offense being one of the most versatile players on the team. His ability to run routes, block, and catch makes him a true Swiss army knife. Unfortunately, he has only eclipsed more than 50 yards twice on the season, but lucky for his fantasy owners he is currently on a streak of 3 straight weeks with double digit scores as he continues to be one of Justin Herbert favorite check down targets. Henry will keep up the momentum as he wraps up a huge contract year on a franchise tag thanks to the new rookie sensation QB1 Justin Herbert.

T.J. Hockenson ( CHI / GB / TEN )

Detroit Lions TE T.J. Hockenson

Mark Andrews ( CLE / JAX / NYG )

Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews

Any questions or comments?

Did Sam miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Sam on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/HTownAndDown96

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time (NFL wk3)

Hammer Time
9/24/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the oddsmakers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 2 Betting Recap:
Wow. What a huge week for the Gambling Guru (and you, if you’ve been following my best bets and player props). First, the Nick Chubb to score the 1st TD prop (+400 at DraftKings and +650 on FanDuel) hit on Thursday night. That was a nice payout, especially if you did the max $20 for the DraftKings promo or took advantage of the higher odds on FanDuel. The Chubb over 71.5 rushing yards also smashed. The Joe Burrow over 23.5 rushing yards narrowly missed—at one point in the game he actually had it before taking a loss on a subsequent play—and the Same Game Parlay missed one leg because the total points went over. That provided a profitable 2-3 start to the weekend.

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow

On Sunday, my best bets were split down the middle, but injuries to Saquon Barkley, Parris Campbell were partly to blame. Green Bay and San Francisco easily covered, while Kansas City avoided an upset and Tennessee pushed in the teaser. But we also learned just how bad Minnesota and Philadelphia are this year; the Vikings and Eagles are officially on the list of teams I can’t trust. Miami got a backdoor cover against Buffalo that I’m going to chalk up to a combination of Ryan Fitz“magic” and the game delay caused by the wild weather. However you slice it, it’s a lackluster 11-12 performance in the main slate.

The Monday night game was the big winner, however, as almost all of my player props hit. Alvin Kamara scored the first touchdown (+550 at DraftKings) then scored a second time (+600 at FanDuel). If you bet both props and Kamara to score at any time (a mispriced -105 at FanDuel), you had a big day. Kamara also crushed his over 4.5 receptions, 37.5 receiving yards, and 90.5 total yards props. Likewise, Josh Jacobs hit the over on 2.5 receptions, 68.5 rushing yards, and 85.5 total yards. He failed to find the end zone and narrowly missed his over 17.5 receiving yards line with 17 yards, which killed 3 props. Still, that’s a dominant 9-3 finish to the Week 2.

Week 2 Record: 22-18 (55%)

Let’s see if we can keep it going for Week 3, starting with some TNF props…

TNF Player Props and Bets: MIA @ JAX

Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

· Myles Gaskin over 16.5 receiving yards (-122 at FanDuel)
· Myles Gaskin over 2.5 receptions (-148 at DraftKings)
· Mike Gesicki over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Over 48.5 total points (-110 at DraftKings)
· MIA +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Minshew Mania may be in full effect, but Jacksonville’s defense is still a bottom feeder. So far this season, running backs have gashed the Jaguars when catching balls out of the backfield. Myles Gaskin has been impressive thus far as the surprise starter in Miami, so I expect that to continue tonight. Sure, there’s always a slim chance that receiving back specialist Matt Brieda steals the show, I’m confident coach Brian Flores will ride the hot hand. I think Gaskin goes over 2 receptions and smashes the receiving yards line (I’d even bet it up to 20 yards if the line continues to move). I also love Mike Gesicki to hit on his 49.5 receiving yards prop. Through two games, the Dolphins young tight end has been targeted 16 times, logging 160 yards on 11 receptions. DeVante Parker was removed from the injury report Wednesday, but playing on a short week after fighting through a hamstring injury only boosts the odds for Gesicki to be the focal point of this passing attack led by Fitz“magic”. I anticipate a high-scoring, messy affair. I’ll take the points with the Dolphins simply because I believe in the coaching staff. Fear the beard, fade the ’stache, and hammer these bets.

Jacksonville Jaguars QB Gardner Minshew

That’s all for now. Check back next week for more favorite picks and player props.

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into week 3 is 32-25, hitting on 56% of his bets.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time (NFL wk2)

Hammer Time (NFL wk2)
9/18/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the oddsmakers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Note from the editor. As the season starts to pick back up so will our DFS play and our prop bets. Play safe and have fun! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Week 1 Betting Recap:
We started off hot last week, hitting on 4 of 5 Thursday Night Football bets but then a few upsets ruined our Sunday picks. Clyde Edwards-Helaire didn’t score first in the season opener as we’d hoped, but he did find the endzone eventually. The Chiefs covered the -9.5 spread (as if there was any doubt) and propelled the game over the alternate line of 49.5 points to help us hit on a same game parlay. Will Fuller was one of the few bright spots for the Texans, finishing with well over the 63.5 receiving yards prop he pegged him for.

On Sunday, the Bears squeaked out a victory with a late comeback and an ugly drop by Lions rookie running back De’Andre Swift. The Packers handled the Vikings easily, courtesy of Aaron Rodgers, who channeled his 2011 self and exposed Minnesota’s leaky secondary. Rodgers finished the day with a whopping stat line: 364 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a 72.7% completion percentage. The Seahawks did indeed “let Russ cook,” and the result was a spectacular cover of the -2.5 spread in a high-scoring affair against the Falcons. In hindsight, this should have been marked as the best bet for Week 1. Atlanta’s offense is high-powered, but their defense is still abysmal, so I’m not sure why so much money was coming in on them.

On the player prop side, we only hit on 2 of 7 bets, but were close on most of the ones we missed. Josh Jacobs had a field day, as predicted, and easily went over his 77.5 rushing yards prop. Diggs did indeed feed on the Jets weak secondary, surpassing his 51.5 receiving yards prop. Todd Gurley just missed his 57.5 rushing yards prop and Aaron Jones did not find the endzone. That shouldn’t come as a surprise though, given the stats that the passing game put up in both affairs. In the night cap, Jared Goff also fell several yards short of his 285.5 passing yards line.

Now, for our biggest busts of the week: DeSean Jackson and the Indianapolis Colts.

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson

Jackson was on a limited snap count during the game, but coach Pederson assured the media his snaps would increase each week—that would have been nice to know ahead of time. At any rate, the Washington Football Team kept Jackson locked down. Credit to Washington’s defense for penetrating the Eagles decimated offensive line and to their offense for scoring 27 unanswered points in the franchise’s biggest comeback since 1955. Last, but not least, we had the major upset of the week: the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars triumphed over Philip Rivers d the Indianapolis Colts. Is Minshew Mania real? We’ll find out in the coming weeks, but this was an ugly gambling casualty in week 1. Hopefully, not everyone went as all in as I did on the Colts.

Overall, we finished with an admirable 10-7 record for week 1. Hey, 59% ain’t too shabby. Let’s see how we fare in week 2!

Spreads:
· MIN +3 (+121 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): Both of these teams will be looking to make a statement after being embarrassed last week. I know that I trashed Minnesota’s secondary earlier, but Rivers is past his prime and Indianapolis has a subpar pass attack at best. The Colts could barely muster 20 points against the worst team in the NFL last week. So I will take the points with the better team. Hammer the Vikings. Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).

Minnesota Vikings RB Dalvin Cook

· GB -6 (+113 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): I was admittedly low on Green Bay coming into the season—they benefited last season from a weak schedule and won a handful of games by one score. But Rodgers is disgruntled (and who can blame him) after the bizarre draft decisions the front office made, and that appears to have lit a fire under him. He went wild in week 1, proving he’s still elite. I think that continues in week 2 against the swiss cheese secondary in Detroit. 6 points is too small of a handicap, so I’ll take the Packers over the Lions. Go Pack, Go! Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).

Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones

· BUF -5.5 (+114 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo): I really like Brian Flores, but the Dolphins are still in rebuilding mode and the Bills see an opportunity to remain undefeated and start the season 2-0 in a division that’s been dominated by New England for the last two decades. Miami only put up 11 points against the Patriots defense last week and they’ll have a tougher ask against Buffalo. Give me the Bills as an under-a-touchdown favorite.

Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen

· PHI +3 (-119 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo on the adjusted line): My beloved birds betrayed me last week, but the starting line for this is a huge overcorrection. Miles Sanders, Lane Johnson, and Derek Barnett are back, so I’ll hammer the homer pick.

Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders

· SF -6 (-104 at DraftKings with 25% profit boost promo on the adjusted line): San Francisco is eager to erase the memory of their ugly loss last week and prove that there is no such thing as a Super Bowl hangover. They’ll bounce back this week in a big way against New York’s “offensive genius” Adam Gase.

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Teasers/Parlays:
· TEN -3 / KC -2.5 teaser (-132 at DraftKings): I refuse to buy in on the Jaguars and I think the Titans are still being underappreciated on the market. Kansas City is also far and away better than the team rebuilding in Los Angeles. My only concern about these spreads is a backdoor cover, so let’s erase that by taking the two together in a 6-point teaser. You might also consider a money line parlay at worse odds (-162) if you want to play it extra safe. I’m confident enough to go with the bigger payout. Bonus: Take advantage of the $50 pre-game money line promo on FanDuel (details below).

Tennessee Titan QB Ryan Tannehill

Noteworthy sports-book promos this week for existing users:
· DraftKings Profit Bonus: 25% profit bonus on every week 2 game. This boost applies to player props as well, but you can only use the boost once so choose wisely. See the DraftKings Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· DraftKings 1st TD Scorer Promo: Bet on the first TD scorer and if your bet doesn’t hit but the player scores at any time in the game win your wager back. See the DraftKings Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· FanDuel Same Game Parlay $10 Credit: Place a $20+ same game parlay of 3+ legs with minimum +200 final odds and get a free $10 site credit. See the FanDuel Sportsbook app for details and full terms.
· FanDuel 35+ Point Profit Bonus: Place a pre-game $50 money line wager on any team and if your team scores 35+ points, win double the winnings. See the FanDuel Sportsbook app for details and full terms.

That’s all for now. Check back this weekend for more player props on Sunday’s games!

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season so far is 10-7, hitting on 59% of his bets.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time

Hammer Time DFS
9/12/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning money on football. LET’S GOOO (win some money)!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. And remember to bet in moderation!
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

TNF Bets:
I wasn’t able to finish this article by opening night, but for record-keeping, I hit on 4 of my 5 Thursday night football picks, including a same game 3-leg parlay! Here’s how it played out:
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score first (+550 at DraftKings)—missed
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score (-125 at DraftKings)—hit!
· KC -9.5 (-110 at DraftKings) —hit!
· Same Game Parlay: 3-legs (+216 at FanDuel)—hit!
Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score
KC money line
Alternate over 49.5 total points
· Will Fuller over 63.5 yards (-130 at DraftKings)—hit!

Let’s dive into the remaining picks for Week 1!

Spreads:

CHI money line (+120 on FanDuel): Let’s be honest: Mitchell Trubisky is a bust and I fully expect Nick Foles (#bdn) to take over before Chicago’s BYE week. However, Mitch has owned the Lions so far in his short career. Detroit’s strength is the offensive side of the ball, but Kenny Golladay is doubtful and we don’t know how the muddy backfield will shake up. Take the plus money and hammer the Bears. Sorry, https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

SEA -2.5 (-110 on DraftKings) and over 49 total points (-110 on DraftKings): The odds makers in Vegas would have us believe that the Seahawks would only be favored by 5.5 points on a neutral field. I’m not buying that. This Seahawks squad, which was 11-5 last season and one play away from being a top seed in the playoffs, is not being given the respect it deserves. Give me the Seahawks covering by less than a field goal. As a bonus, I’ll also take the over because I love these high-powered offenses. #letrusscook

PIT -5.5 (-115 on FanDuel): The Pittsburgh Steelers went 8-8 last season with guys named Mason Rudolph and “Duck” Hodges under center. New York’s defense is still a weak spot so expect a healthy Big Ben and James Connor to take advantage. The Steelers may have the top defense in the league in 2020, so I trust them to keep Saquon Barkley in check and “Danny Dimes” well in check. Give me the Steelers, Vegas; you can have the points.

GB +2.5 (-109 on DraftKings): The front office lit a fire under Aaron Rodgers when they drafted his heir apparent in the 2020 NFL Draft. Rodgers may have limited weapons but that didn’t stop him last season. Green Bay’s 2019 schedule was on the softer side, but we can’t discount the fact that the Packers compiled 13 wins, earned the 2nd seed, and swept Minnesota last season. The Vikings lost some key players on defense in the off-season, so I expect the Packers offense to handily control this game. The books are giving the Vikings an edge for being at home, but why? Fans are not allowed at U.S. Bank Stadium for at least the first two games, which eliminates any “home-field advantage” in my mind. I’ll take a hungry Rodgers with something to prove and the points, please.

Teaser:

IND -2.5/PIT +0.5 (-130 at FanDuel): The Jaguars are tanking for Trevor—no matter how hard they try to deny it. The organization is an utter mess, with Tony Khan, the senior VP of football administration, getting into Twitter spats with players. Take it from former players, such as Jalen Ramsey, Yannick Ngakoue, and Leonard Fournette, who managed to force themselves out of the toxic locker room: this is not an organization that wants to win right now. 8.5 is too much to comfortably lay in a season opener—especially one that follows the most uncertain off-season in NFL history—against a divisional opponent, however, so I’ll take the Colts in a teaser with the bonus 6 points. It’s hard to choose who to pair them with, but I’ll go with the Steelers.

Special Promo (does not count towards my picks record):
· LAR spread over DAL (-110 at FanDuel): FanDuel Sports book is currently running another “spread the love” promotion: they’re moving the spread by 1 point in favor of the Rams for every 5,000 fans who bet on L.A. using the promo (everyone will benefit from the final point spread). At the time of this writing, the spread is already +11. These promotions are locks, so make sure you take full advantage of the max $50 wager!

Player Props:

BUF WR Stefon Diggs

· Diggs over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel): After trading away Jamal Adams, the New York Jets have arguably the worst secondary in the league. Expect Josh Allen to use his newest toy early to prove he can in fact throw deep. It just takes one play…
· DeSean Jackson to score (+200 at FanDuel): The Eagles will be missing Alshon Jeffrey on Sunday and rookie Jalen Reagor may be on a limited snap count, making Jackson a centerpiece of the Eagles aerial attack. Jackson tends to go off on former teams and on opening day (more on that later). Expect fireworks.
· Jared Goff over 285.5 passing yards (+100 at FanDuel): I’m not sold on the Rams running back by committee approach and, as much as I hate to admit it, Dallas should have a dangerous offense this season. That equates to Goff airing it out early and often. I like Cooper Kupp and the ever-underrated “Bobby Trees” against the Cowboys secondary so I’ll lean towards the over here.
· Todd Gurley over 57.5 yards (-110 at FanDuel): Sure, Todd Gurley has the knees of an 84-year-old grandma, but the Falcons don’t really have another back capable of producing on the ground. His arthritic knee will undoubtedly cap his upside this season, but he should be fresh entering Week 1. Hammer him while you can.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

· Josh Jacobs over 77.5 (-110 on FanDuel): The Panthers had the worst run defense in 2019 and they are now without Dontari Poe, who is now with the Cowboys, and Luke Kuechly, who retired in January. Josh Jacobs is going to E-A-T. Feed the man.
· Aaron Jones to score (+108 on DraftKings) and Aaron Jones over 64.5 yards (-112 on DraftKings): I mentioned earlier that I liked the Packers with the points because of Minnesota’s deteriorating defense. The Vikings traded for Yannick Ngakoue to replace the departed Everson Griffen, but the interior line is going to be as soft as pudding without Linval Joseph. The Packers have made their plans to run first painfully clear in the off-season and with A.J. Dillon losing the backup running back job to Jamaal Williams (for now), Jones’ path to success is clear.

Philadelphia Eagles WR DeSean Jackson

***BEST BET ALERT*** DeSean Jackson over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel): DeSean Jackson and revenge games go together like peanut butter and jelly. And just like peanut butter, Jackson can be lethal to some. He can easily hit this mark on a single play. The stats speak for themselves:
He has averaged a whopping 17.4 yards per reception in his career—best in the NFL among active players—and has led the league in that category 4 times in his career: 2018 (18.9), 2016 (17.9), 2014 (20.9), and 2010 (22.5). He is also one of just 6 wide receivers in NFL history averaging at least 17 yards per reception while compiling 10,000 or more total yards.
He has 37 career games with 100-plus receiving yards, behind only Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones, and Antonio Brown.
He has 31 career 50-plus yard touchdowns, which ranks second in NFL history (five short of Jerry Rice).
He is also the third-oldest player in NFL history to record multiple 50-plus yards receiving touchdowns in a single game.
He surpassed Jerry Rice in 2019 for the most 60-plus yard touchdowns in NFL history with 24.
He has recorded 6 opening day games with 100-plus receiving yards—tied with Michael Irvin for most in NFL history.
With Alshon Jeffrey ruled out nursing a never-ending foot injury and rookie Jalen Reagor active but recovering from a shoulder injury just weeks ago, Jackson is primed for another breakout opening day performance against an NFC East rival and former club. He’s looked great in camp so far and coming off a season in which he missed 15 games, he should have fresh legs. Most importantly, he’ll be hungry. Hammer. The. Over.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time (NFL Betting)

Hammer Time
9/8/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Quick note from the editor. In the past I’ve found complete transparency to the reader to be the best course of action. Pulling the curtain aside a moment, Anthony reached out and inquired about getting his NFL betting content published and seen! We were happy to oblige here at Cheat Sheet! Thank you Anthony and we look forward to long prosperous NFL season together.

Welcome to the first DFSCheatSheet edition of Hammer Time! Each week, I’ll share my best bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning money on football. Today, we’ll be looking at some of my favorite season-long bets, including team win totals, team futures, and player props. Before we dive in, let me offer a few pieces of general sports betting advice….

Tip #1: Look for value, not chalk. You’re going to be tempted to bet the house on that BAL or KC over 11.5 wins. Don’t. That doesn’t mean that I don’t expect the Ravens or Chiefs to get to 12 wins. But there’s simply very little value to be found here. The odds makers know everyone loves Patty Mahomes, the new half-billion-dollar face of the NFL, and Lamar “action” Jackson. They’ll use their popularity to lure you into making high risk, low reward bets. Don’t take the bait. God forbid Mahomes catches COVID-19 and is forced to quarantine or Jackson (*knocks on wood*) suffers a torn ACL. Anything can happen—especially in these uncertain times.

Tip #2: There’s no such thing as being injury-prone… but players can be prone to injuries. Medical experts agree there is no evidence to suggest that one player is more likely to get injured than another. Despite this, it seems as though some can’t stay out of the blue medical tent. Translation: be wary of any player with an injury history. Also, stay away from bets on players with specific injury histories (think Todd Gurley’s arthritic knees), as those injuries are more likely to re-occur.

Tip #3: Shop around. Legalized gambling in many states has given rise to several competing sports books. Take advantage of any promotions, odds boosts, and line discrepancies.

Tip #4: Less is more. They say “the house always wins” for a reason. The odds makers setting the lines are experts. Never bet an amount of money that makes you uneasy. A good rule is to bet half of what you’re willing to lose. It’s better to win less than to lose more!

Now with that out of the way, let’s dig in these best bets!

Best Bets: Win Totals

JAC under 5 (-118)

Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2020 Jacksonville Jaguars are a far cry from the 2017 squad that almost won the AFC Championship. You might even say they’ve even supplanted the Miami Dolphins as the textbook definition of “tanking.” The mishandling of contracts and personnel—see the Jalen Ramsey trade, the ugly Twitter exchange between executive Tony Khan and former DL Yannick Ngakoue, and the cutting of Leonard Fournette—reveals just how toxic the culture has become in Jacksonville. Meanwhile, the rest of the AFC South has become increasingly competitive: the Houston Texans remain the division favorite despite the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and the Tennessee Titans will remain serious contenders after their deep postseason run last season. In Indianapolis, gunslinger Philip Rivers hopes to find the Fountain of Youth behind the best line in the league. Would it really surprise anyone if the Jags went winless in their own division? The Jaguars also face the Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengal’s, Detroit Lions, Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, Baltimore Ravens, and Chicago Bears. I’m in on Minshew Mania, but no mullet or mustache—no matter how glorious—can muster 5 wins with this roster and schedule. HAMMER the under.

WAS under 5 (+100)

Washington Football Team

From workplace misconduct scandals to controversy over the club’s former nickname, there has been a lot of ugliness surrounding the Washington franchise this off-season. The club plays the Arizona Cardinals, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams, Detroit Lions, Cincinnati Bengal’s, Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, and Carolina Panthers this season. That’s in addition to the Philadelphia Eagles, the reigning NFC East division champs, the Dallas Cowboys, a potential Super Bowl sleeper, and the New York Giants, who always seem to have Washington’s number. “Riverboat” Ron Rivera was an excellent hire, but it takes time to right a ship—especially one that’s capsized.

CIN under 6 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals

It may surprise you to learn that despite having the #1 overall pick this off-season, the Cincinnati Bengal’s are not devoid of talent. Joe Burrow is rookie quarterback but he’s coming off the best statistical season in NCAA history and he has a deep group of receivers plus Joe Mixon, who Bill Belichick believes to be the best running back in the league. Unfortunately, the Bengal’s are also in one of the most competitive division in the NFL, playing the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cleveland Browns twice. Outside the division, they face the Los Angeles Chargers, Philadelphia Eagles, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans, Washington Football Team, New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys, and Houston Texans. That’s a big ask of a rookie quarterback in a challenging off-season. They have a shot against several fellow basement dwellers but good luck finding 6 wins. So, it’s Hammer Time.

TEN over 8.5 (-110)

Tennessee Titans

The Titans playoff run (pun intended) only ended because not even Derrick Henry could keep future Hall of Fame quarterback Patrick Mahomes off the field long enough in the AFC Championship game. Their non-division schedule looks like this: Denver Broncos, Minnesota Vikings, Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengal’s, Chicago Bears, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Detroit Lions, and Green Back Packers. A split with the Colts and Texans and a sweep of the Jaguars would put them at 4-2, just about halfway to their win total. The Bengal’s and Lions should push them to 6, leaving just 3 more wins. I think they get them. I’d also consider betting them to win the division outright depending on the juice.

Best Bets: Win Totals

PIT to Make Playoffs (-134)

Pittsburgh Steelers

Ben Roethlisberger underwent season-ending surgery last year to reattach three torn flexor tendons in his right elbow. Not only is he healthy, but the pain he’s apparently been playing through his entire career has dissipated. Juju Smith-Schuster, James Connor, rising star Diontae Johnson, and the rest of the offense will benefit from his return. The Steelers, led by the tandem of “Duck” Hodges and Mason Rudolph, would have made the playoffs last season under the new format. Let that sink in for a moment… and then head to your preferred sports book app to bet big on Big Ben leading the Steelers back to the playoffs.

SEA to Make the Playoffs (-128)

Seattle Seahawks

Under head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Russell Wilson, the Seattle Seahawks have had double-digit winning records in 7 of the last 8 years. Last season, they were a yard away from claiming a top seed in the NFC playoffs when they lose a thriller to their rivals and eventual NFC Super Bowl representatives, the San Francisco 49ers. The NFC West is as competitive as any other division in the NFL today, but it’s difficult to ignore that kind of sustained success. With the new payoff format allowing a 7th team into the postseason, it’s easy to imagine that the trend will continue. You might also want to consider sprinkling some money on the Seahawks over 9 wins. Shop around for the best odds.

Best Bets: Player Prop Futures

Miles Sanders over 1,005.5 rushing yards (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles RB Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders got off to a rough start in his rookie campaign last year. He failed to see the holes and was outplayed by Jordan Howard early on. But somewhere along the way, everything clicked. He has the potential to be a top-5 RB this year. Skeptical? Look at his fantasy points in the last 8 games. Head coach Doug Pederson has had a tendency to use the dreaded running back by committee approach, but he has never had a back this talented before. Everyone has been gushing about Sanders been crushing it in camp. I think he also crushes this 1,005.5 rushing yard mark, which is not even 200 yards more than his final numbers last season.

Baker Mayfield over 23.5 passing TDs (-112)

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield

The Cleveland Browns have been under-the-radar this off-season after a disappointing campaign in 2019 under former head coach Freddie Kitchens. But rest assured, this team will be better than it was last year, and I have no doubt that a humbled Baker is eager to prove his arm is better than his acting. Throwing 24 touchdowns really isn’t a lot to ask when you consider the weapons he will be working with: Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., Kareem Hunt, Nick Chubb, and Austin Hooper. Compound that talent with the addition of new head coach Kevin Stefanski and I think Baker will get at least 2 more than last year (22). Hammer, hammer, hammer.

Sam Darnold over 22.5 passing TDs (-108)

New York Jets QB Sam Darnold

Far be it from me to heap praise on anyone playing for Adam Gase, aka the fantasy dream-killer, but Sam Darnold threw 19 touchdown passes while playing in just 13 games in 2019. This is a make or break year for the former 1st round pick. If he makes even a slight improvement in his development and stays healthy, he should surpass his numbers from last season. Hey, you can’t catch mononucleosis twice, right?

Carson Wentz over 3,899.5 passing yards (-112)

Philadelphia Eagles QB Carson Wentz

Call me an Eagles homer, but I love Carson Wentz over 3,899.5 passing yards (-112). He threw for over 4,000 yards last season despite not having a single receiver over 400 yards and should have more explosive weapons this year with rookie Jalen Reagor and a healthy DeSean Jackson in his arsenal this year. His desire to get that extra yard on every play puts him at a higher risk of injury, making this a dodgy play but there’s too much upside here. And so we hammer.

Check back throughout the season for more best bets!

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1