NBA Stars & Scrubs – 2/24/20

NBA Stars & Scrubs
2/24/20
By DFS SpepSheet

 

*Draftkings Salaries are listed first, Fanduel Salaries are listed second

Here we are, ready to start off another great week of NBA. We got a nice 8 game slate tonight. We already have received the news of 2 big names to be ruled out tonight, Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons. Tobias Harris is also listed as Doubtful. Should be a lot of PHI chalk tonight. I’m currently seeing Horford projected to be the highest owned player on the slate. So, lets get right to it…

Guards

Luka Doncic (10,500) (9,800) – Way to cheap on Fanduel tonight. Taking up 5% less salary than on Draftkings. With the amount of value we will have on tonight’s slate you will want some expensive players in your lineup. Doncic is one of my favorite plays on FD. Averaging 52.4 FD pts over the last 5 games. That alone is 5.3x value. He also has a juicy matchup facing the Timberwolves who are giving up 47.6 fpts to the PG position over the last 2 weeks. Over the last week MIN has only allowed 40.4 FD pts to the PG position. In the last week they faced Jamal Murray (29.2 FD pts in 35 minutes), Kemba Walker (41 FD pts in 35 mins), Doncic’s potential matchup is D’Angelo Russell who has a very poor DRPM of over -3. Over the course of the Season MIN is ranked 18th in fpts allowed to the PG position. I currently have Luka projected for 61 fpts. Which is 5.72x value on DK and 6.26x value on FD.

Mike Conley (5,300) (5,700) – After coming back from injury, Conley had a slow start when he was coming off the bench. Since returning to the starting rotation he has exceeded 6x value every game, yet his price has roughly stayed the same. He hasn’t gotten less than 30 fpts in the last 5 games he has played. Tonight he is facing the Suns who are ranked 14th in fpts allowed to PGs. Not in the best of matchups so 6x might be tough on Fanduel, a little easier on Draftkings where the target is 31.8. On FD a 6x target is 34.2.

Josh Richardson (4,800) (5,100) – Ben Simmons is already ruled out. Simmons missed a game a few days ago on the 20th vs BKN. Richardson went for 27 DK pts. Tonight Richardson has a much easier matchup facing ATL. ATL is allowing the 5th most Fpts to the SG position. BKN is ranked 2nd, allowing the 2nd least amount of fpts to SG. Richardson most likely will be carrying some ownership with Simmons listed out and the great matchup he is in.

Alec Burks (4,900) (4,000) – A much cheaper option on FD than DK. Last game Simmons missed Burks seen 30 mins of action and went for 25 fpts. On FD that’s over 6x value. FD has Burks listed as a SG and DK has him listed as a PG/SG. Since joining PHI, Burks has played from the SF position 49% of the time and the SG position 42% of the time. If Harris gets ruled out, Burks should see an even larger role due to this and a lot of people may overlook this considering he is listed as a guard on both sites. ATL is allowing the most fpts in the league to the SF position. Right now, I’m seeing Burks as one of the least owned PHI players. Could be a very solid GPP option to gain leverage.

Kendrick Nunn (5,600) (4,700) – Butler is ruled out for a second straight game. Last game, just 2 days ago MIA played CLE. With Butler out. Nunn had an explosive game, reaching 46 fpts. He seen a significant price increase on DK of $1,100. Fanduel didn’t really adjust his price. I would take advantage of this on Fanduel. Nunn is a combo guard, playing mostly from the PG position. CLE is allowing the 2nd most fpts to PGs and SGs on the year. Priced under 5k on FD is just disrespectful after just putting up over 40 fpts againt CLE just 2 days ago. I am seeing Nunn projected to be the 3rd highest owned guard at the moment.

George Hill (3,000) (3,500) – Probably my favorite GPP play of the night. Hill was out for almost a month. He returned 2 games ago. In both games since returning, he has seen 20 minutes. First game he got 15 fpts (vs DET) and last game only 9 (vs PHI). Tonight MIL is facing WAS. MIL has the 3rd best OFF rating in the league and WAS is ranked dead last in DEF rating. Vegas currently has the spread on this game at 12.5. MIL could very well be up by 20 quickly in this game and Hill could see some significant run. Was is also allowing the 4th most fpts to the PG position where Hill is playing 90% of the time. At the minimum price on both sites. Hill could be that .01% owned player to get you a takedown tonight.

Other Guard I Like tonight are … ( James Harden, Eric Bledsoe, Patrick Beverly, Furkan Korkmaz, Duncan Robinson)

Forwards

Kelly Olynyk (3,700) (3,900) – Olynyk is another GPP play I like tonight. Last game with Butler out, Olynyk played 26 minutes and went for 30 fpts. They are facing CLE again tonight. Love did miss the last game but is listed as probable tonight. I am currently seeing Olynyk as the projected starter at the PF spot. Olynyk is listed as C on FD. I’m not sure if you would wanna fill your on Center spot with him tonight. If your running multiple lineups he is a great option to get in some of them since I don’t see him being high owned at all. On Draftkings he is listed as a PF/C so you have a 5 different position slots you could put him in. Even though Olynyk is currently listed as the starting PF, He mostly plays as a Center. Bam actually plays the PF spot more than the C. CLE is allowing the 11th most fpts in the league to Centers. But they are ranked the 9th best at defending PF. Just last game Bam only scored 33 fpts and didn’t even reach 4x value. Olynyk got 30 fpts and almost reached 9x value. Bam is currently projected to be the 5th highest owned PF on the slate on FD. Olynyk is only showing 5% ownership on FD and 12% on DK.

Josh Jackson (3,300) (3,500) Jackson missed the majority of the season. He made his debut on January 29th. Since then he is averaging roughly 20 minutes per game. He is coming off 2 games where he has gotten 24 and 26 fpts. Tonight MEM faces the Clippers. Vegas currently has the spread at 9.5 pts with the Clippers as the favorite. MEM is rated as the 12th worse OFF rated team and the 16th worse DEF rated team. The Clippers are proving to be the team to beat in the West. This game could become blowout and Jackson see a little extra run. He was a solid option for PHX last year with numerous games with 30+ fpts. MEM might be easing him into rotation more and more every game. Another very solid GPP option for tonight.

Glenn Robinson (3,200) (3,800) – Projected to start. Under 4k. Facing ATL. Not much more needs to be said here. Robinson seen 20 minutes last game 2 days ago and got 21 fpts. They played MIL who are allowing the 12th least amount of fpts to SFs. If Tobias Harris does sit out tonight, Robinson should see 25 mins or so. ATL is allowing the most fpts in the league to SFs. 6x shouldn’t be an issue for him to get tonight. I’m also not seeing a ton of ownership on him either. Horford, Richardson, and Embiid are currently projected highest owned PHI players.

Kristaps Porzingis (8,100) (8,900) – This game is currently the 2nd highest over/under on the slate. MIN is without KAT for a few more weeks with a broken wrist. I just don’t see anyone on MIN that will be able to contain “the unicorn” tonight. MIN is also allowing the 6th most fpts to the PF position. Naz Reid is Porzingis’ potential matchup. Reid has a -.535 DRPM. Porzingis is coming off back to back 50+ fpt performances. Wouldn’t doubt it if he does it again tonight. Listed as a C on DK so you could play him and Embiid with one filling the UTIL spot.

Marvin Williams (3,100) (3,600) – MIL recently acquired Williams after he was bought out by CHA. Williams made his debut with MIL on 2/12 where he seen 20 minutes and accumulated 14.5 fpts. Tonight MIL is facing a WAS team ranked dead last in DEF rating. This game could get out of hand. Brook Lopez is also listed out for tonights game. Right now it looks like the ownership is going to Brooks brother Robin. MIL may have other intentions and give Williams some more run tonight and play smaller. In no way would I play Williams in Cash, but could be a great punt in GPPs.

Other Forwards I like ( Derrick Jones Jr., Jae Crowder, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Aaron Gordon)

Center

Joel Embiid (9,500) (10,000) – Facing the Hawks who are allowing the most fpts to C and PHI is without Simmons and Harris is doubtful. Embiid should be in for a huge role tonight. He is also showing up as the highest owned player. Last game Simmons missed which was 2 games ago vs BKN. Embiid put up 65+ fpts. I expect the same thing from him again tonight.

Gorgui Dieng (3,400) (3,600) – With Embiid in a spot like he is in tonight its tough to fade him on FD for another Center. But if your trying to be contrarian and pay up at other spots and go with a value Center. I would either go with Dieng or Robin Lopez (who I will be going over next) Jaren Jackson Jr. is out. In the game Jackson got hurt on 2/21. Dieng seen the majority of the rest of his minutes. Dieng also had an absolute great game putting up 32 fpts in 21 minutes. All year long when he has been given the time on the court, he has produced. I’m projecting him to see roughly 23-25 minutes tonight. Being the fpt/min player he is, He should be able to crush value tonight. When playing a value player like this you typically want more than just 6x or 7x out of them. There is no reason Dieng cannot reach that tonight if he gets the minutes. My projection model has him projected for 28 fpts which is a little over 8x on both sites.

Robin Lopez (3,000) (3,500) – His brother Brook Lopez is ruled out tonight for MIL. Now you know there has always got to be some brother rivalry going on. I couldn’t imagine being on the same team as my brother and watch him play 25 minutes a night and I’m not even getting 10. If I was Robin, I’d make sure whenever I would fill in for my brother I would want to show the coach… “Hey, your making a mistake and playing the wrong brother.” .. At absolutely minimum price and facing a WAS team allowing the 7th most fpts in the league to C, Robin should be able to get you at least 6x. He is averaging .81 fpt/min on the season. So if he sees the 26 minutes his brother was seeing. That equals out to be 21 fpts. Right around 7x value. So Dieng and RoLo are 2 solid value options if you want to be different and not play Embiid. In Cash games, I would stick with Embiid in the Center spot on FD.

Other Centers I like …. (Nikola Vucevic, Montrezl Harrell)

NBA Stars & Scrubs – 2/21/20

NBA Stars & Scrubs
2/21/20
By DFS Shepsheat

 

 

*Draftkings Salaries are listed first, Fanduel Salaries are listed second.

Guards

Anfernee Simons (3,500) (4,800) – Damian Lillard has been ruled out for the next few games. I’m really surprised Draftkings didn’t increase Simons price. At $3,500 he is an absolute steal. He has 30 fpt upside all day long. Last game out back on Feb 12th, Simons put up 34.75 pts in 28 minutes vs MEM. This was with Lillard in. Lillard has missed 2 games this season where Simons got some extra run. Which was back on November, 19th and the 21st. On the 19th, The Blazers played the Pelicans. Same matchup they have tonight. Simons put up 24.3 DK fpts in 36 minutes. The next game on the 21st they played MIL, a very tough matchup. Simons didn’t fair too well in this matchup only playing 17 minutes and accumulating 12 DK pts. Given the matchup and his pricetag on DK, Simons is a safe lock in Cash games. On Fanduel he is priced significantly higher where value may be a reach, but not impossible. Vegas does currently have this game as the highest over/under on the slate. The Blazers are in a paced up matchup and the Pelicans are also allowing the 6th most fpts to PGs and the 8th most fpts to SG. Simons is listed as a Combo Guard, The Pelicans are allowing the 2nd most fpts in the league to CG.

C.J. McCollum (6,600) (6,900) – Like mentioned above, Lillard is ruled out. McCollum is averaging 35 Dk pts and 34 FD pts on the year. Which is pretty much right around 5x value at his price tag. With Lillard out, paced up, and facing a Pelicans team ranked in the bottom 10 DVP and DEF rating wise… I don’t see how McCollum can not hit value here. McCollum also is averaging 7 3pt Att/gm. The Pelicans are allowing the 5th most 3’s per game. With Lillard out, I expect McCollum to be letting them fly tonight.

Tyus Jones (3,300) (3,900) – This MEM guard position is so tough to judge, One night its Jones you want, the next its Morant. Well last night it was a Jones and a Melton night. Melton was the top value play of the night getting 41 fpts and hitting 10.45x value. Jones wasn’t far behind hitting 8.5x value. Tonight MEM has a tougher matchup facing the Lakers who have been a pretty solid team all year. They are currently ranked the 4th best at DEF rating in the league. The only position they are ranked outside the top 10 DVP wise is to the PG position where they are allowing the 7th most fpts. The reason I would go with Jones over Melton tonight is simply because Jones is 100% PG. Melton only plays the PG position 23% of the time and 77% at the SG positon where the Lakers are allowing the 10th least amount of Fpts. Now if your wondering why wouldn’t I pick Morant then? Well the Lakers are 11 Point favorites in this game which I could see them winning by even more. Giving the bench players more run. I would much rather pay for a cheap price tag in a potential blowout than for an inconsistent Morant.

Other Guard I Like tonight are … (Kyle Lowry, Malik Beasley, Ish Smith, Marcus Smart, Lonzo Ball)

I am Fading both Donovan Mitchel and D’Angelo Russell tonight.
I am seeing both projected as the 3rd and 4th highest owned guards on the slate. Now Mike Conley has already been ruled out for tonights game, this would give Mitchell a boost in usage, but this also puts Mitchell in role to play more from the PG position than at SG. The spurs are allowing the 10th least amount of fpts to the PG position.
De’Angelo Russel is facing a BOS defense who are no slouch, especially when it comes to guarding Guards where they are ranked 4th to PG and 7th to SG. Also with Kemba being ruled out this puts Smart on Russel and Smart is one of the best defensive guards in the league.

Forwards

Jayson Tatum (7,800) (8,700) – Kemba Walker is ruled out tonight. Last game Kemba was out (2/5/20) Tatum put up 62 DK fpts vs ORL. The last 4 games Walker has missed, Tatums weakest performance was 40.3 DK fpts vs PHI. Tonight he gets a great matchup facing a MIN team that is allowing the 8th most fpts to the PF position. Tatum is currently projected to be the 2nd highest owned Forward of the night..

Domantis Sabonis (9,600) (7,700) – I think Sabonis is only in play on FD. With a 2k price difference, he is just way to expensive for me on DK. Facing a Knicks team allowing the 2nd most fpts to PF and the 13th most to Cs. Sabonis is in a great matchup here. He is averaging 41.4 FD fpts/gm. Which is more than 5x value at this price tag. In a matchup vs the Knicks he should be able to top his average and get you 6x value. He will also be much lower owned than Tatum, so if your looking for a good pivot. Sabonis is the guy.

Aaron Gordon (7,300) (6,900) – Now we all seen Gordon get robbed by the NBA for a second time in the Slam Dunk contest this past weekend. I think Gordon will have a chip on his shoulder and play some real aggressive ball these next few games. Gordon has also been performing really well these past few games. Last game going for 54 fpts right below 8x value. He is facing a DAL team ranked in the top 10 in DVP to PFs. So he isn’t in the best spot. But he could demand the ball and want to put on a show due to what happened at the Dunk Contest. Strictly a GPP play.

Other Forwards I like… ( Mikal Bridges, Juan Hernangomez, James Johnson, Gary Trent)

I will be Fading Carmelo Anthony tonight. Carmelo Anthony is currently projected to be the highest owned Forward of the night. He is priced at 5,300 on DK and 4,900 on FD. He has only gotten over 30 fpts twice in the last 10 games. He does take roughly 15 FG att/gm. With Lillard out, this will probably get a boost. I just don’t see him going crazy over value. Out of all positions the PF is the position that the Pelicans are the toughest at. Now that Zion has been playing too, the numbers to PF have went down as well. Zion does have a positive DRPM. If I’m right and Melo has a low scoring game and he is highly owned, it could be a huge boost to your lineups.

Center

Serge Ibaka (6,500) (6,600) – Right now Center is looking like a pretty tough position tonight. With Lillard out you could go the Whiteside route, but he hasn’t really been paying off that high price tag lately. Drummond has yet to see over 30 minutes since joining the Cavs. Last game Love was even out and Drummond only seen 22 minutes. This has got me looking at Ibaka. Marc Gasol is out again. In the last 5 games Ibaka has reached over 40 fpts in 3 of them. Facing a PHX team who are allowing the 12th most fpts to Cs on the year. I think Ibaka is a really good option. PHX is allowing the 4th most OFF rebounds and allowing the 9th most total rebounds. Ibaka is averaging 8 rebounds per game. He could very easily get you a double double tonight.

Naz Reid (4,500) (4,200) –  Big KAT is ruled out tonight. KAT also missed the last game MIN played back on 2/12 vs CHA. In that game Reid seen 22 mins and posted 23 fpts. He does have a tougher matchup tonight facing the Celtics. But Reid has been a pretty solid fpt/min player. So Reid should see some valuable minutes here tonight. MIN no longer has Dieng as a backup Center, he was traded to MEM.

James Johnson (4,600) (5,200) – I am seeing Johnson currently listed to start at Center tonight for MIN. For MIN he has mostly been playing from the PF spot. Playing 95% at PF and 3% at C. He has been the better player between him and Reid. So its pretty much a coin toss between these 2. If your playing on FD. I think I’d roll with Reid due to him being 1k cheaper. But on DK, I’d roll with Johnson since their prices are so similar.

Other Centers I like …. ( Hassan Whiteside, Anthony Davis, Larry Nance)

NBA Stars & Scrubs – 2/20/20

NBA Stars & Scrubs
Written by: DFS_Shepsheet
2/20/20

 

 

Draftkings Salaries are listed first Fanduel Salaries are listed second

NBA is finally back. We had a nice week off with an exciting All Star Weekend. Aaron Gordon was robbed again, and the All Star Game’s new format brought some great competition in the 4th quarter. Was great to see the players out there actually trying. We finished strong before the break, now lets keep this streak going. We haven’t received much news as to players being out, so as of right now, all the players are priced accordingly. We will need to stay focused on news to come if we get any at all.

Guards

Coby White (4,700) (4,600) – Kriss Dunn has missed the last few games for CHI, allowing for other guys to step in and step up. Coby White has definitely taken advantage of this. Coming off a 39 fpt performance, and 2 over 30 fpts in his last 3 games. He did have a dud in there of only 17 fpts when they faced PHI who are a very good defensive team. Tonight he has an easy matchup in CHA where he should be able to reach that 30 fpt mark again. CHA is ranked 26th in DEF rating, and they are allowing the 10th most fpts to the SG position. White plays at the SG position 70% of the time. At his price, 7x is not out of reach for this matchup.

Josh Richardson (4,200) (5,000) – The price difference is a little steep with JRich. Even though he only takes up 8% of salary on either site, 6x value may be a little tougher to reach on FD. I still think he is very much in play here tonight. After missing some time, his first few games back he seen limited minutes. In the last game before break, he seen his normal 30+ and went for 33 fpts facing a tough Clippers team. Tonight he is facing BKN. BKN is actually ranked 8th in the league in DEF rating. JRich is primarily a SG playing 91% from this position. The matchup here is pretty tough for him, BKN is allowing the 12th least amount of fpts to SGs. I think on Draftkings 6x will be much easier to reach than on FD, but can definitely get you there.

Duncan Robinson (4,900) (4,200) – If your playing on FD and you don’t want to go the JRich route… Duncan Robinson should be your pivot. The price difference here is the opposite. Draftkings has him priced much higher, he eats up 12% of Draftkings salary, but only 7% of Fanduel salary. Facing an ATL team allowing the most fpts in both the SG and SF positon. Robinson splits both these positions pretty evenly, playing both a little more than 40% of the time. My projection model currently has him projected at 31 fpts. Which is still 6x value on Draftkings, but a much better value for you on FD. He also is taking about 8 3 pointers a game. ATL is allowing the 6th most 3 pt attempts in the league. If his 3’s are falling tonight, could be in for a monster game. Other

Guards I like ( Eric Gordon, De’Aaron Fox, Damion Lee)

Forwards

Robert Covington (5,500) (6,000) – Since joining HOU, Covington has had some great games. 3 out of 6 he has reached over 33 fpts. Tonight he is facing the Warriors. Ranked the 6th worst DEF rating team in the league. DVP wise he has a middle of the pack matchup. The Warriors are allowing the 13th least amount of fpts to the PF position where Covington has played 100% of the time since joining the Rockets. My projection model currently has him projected at 35 fpts. Right around 6x value. With 2 algorithms I run, at the PF position he is currently ranked number 1 in one of the algorithms, and 2 in the other. So according to my algos I have him in the best spot out of all forwards tonight.

Shaq Harrison (3,000) (3,700) – Popping up everywhere as the highest pt/$ on the slate as of right now. With Chandler Hutchinson out, Shaw should see an expanded role tonight. At pretty much bare minimum price on FD and the bare minimum on DK, he is at a great value. Currently projected to see 25 mins, My projection model has him at an outstanding 10x value for DK tonight. Projected at 30 fpts. Facing CHA who is allowing the 14th most fpts to the SF position. He should be able to reach value at his price.

Other Forwards I like ( Jimmy Butler, Bogdan Bogdanovich, Bam Adebayo)

Centers

Joel Embiid (9,000) (9,600) – Centers vs BKN, need I say more? BKN is allowing the 4th most fpts to Cs on the year. With Embiids talent, he should be able to exploit this matchup and have a great night. He will most likely be the highest owned player on the slate due to this matchup.

Daniel Gafford (3,000) (3,700) – After missing some time before the break, Gafford is expected to be a full go for tonight. We seen Gafford price be up to close to 5k before his injury. Facing a CHA team allowing the 6th most fpts to Cs he in a great spot tonight. I don’t see how he doesn’t get you at least 6x value.

Other Centers I like (Marquese Chriss, Brook Lopez)

NBA Stars & Scrubs – 2/12/20

NBA Stars & Scrubs – 2/12/20
By DfsShepSheet

 

 

Salaries are Draftkings first, Fanduel second.

Tonight we have a massive 11 game slate. Giannis was ruled out before the slate came out, so the MIL players seen a price increase to reflect Giannis absence. As we have seen all year, Bledsoe and Middleton are always chalk when Giannis is ruled out. They do see a tough defensive opponent tonight with Indiana. I think in cash you can still play them both and be ok. Not a bad idea to fade in GPPs if you feel IND can hold them to under value.

Guards–

Tyus Jones (3,900) (4,500) – A little bit of a better player on Draftkings tonight. He has scored over 20 fpts in the last 4 games. Seeing roughly 20 mins/game. At 3,900 on Draftkings he is a very sold option to get you 6xat his price tag. It will be tough, but not out of the realm of possibility on Fanduel. POR is allowing the most fpts in the league to the PG position. MEM is currently the favorite by 3.5. He is nothing special, just a solid value option.

Elfrid Payton (7,500) (7,200) – Elf has turned on the jets as of lately and its about time he has been getting the run he deserves and the Knicks paid for. WAS is allowing the 4th most FPTS to PGs. The Knicks are in an up tempo game. 6x might be his ceiling in this game. But it is very possible to get to given the matchup.

Trae Young (10,400) (10,100) – Out of all the top salary guards on the Slate, Trae is my favorite. DRuss is on a new team, only scored 30 fpts in his first game in a Wolves uniform. Booker has an ugly game log recently where I cant see myself paying 8k for maybe 30 fpts. Luka is coming back from a lengthy absence. Lillard has cooled off. The only other high salary guard I like tonight is Fox, But his matchup is nowhere as juicy as Trae’s. ATL vs CLE is the highest over/under on the slate with a tight spread of ATL only favored by 2. CLE is allowing the 2nd most fpts to the PG position at 52.7. Darius Garland has a -2.33 DRPM. Everything is pointing to a 60+ fpt night from Trae.

Other Guards I like (Shabazz Napier, Gary Trent, Eric Bledsoe, Terry Rozier, Colin Sexton)

Forwards—

Kevin Porter (4,300) (4,400) – ATL is the worst defensive team in the league when it comes to SF. Porter is coming off a 7x value performance.. I expect the same thing from him again here tonight. He should be pretty low owned to get you some good leverage as well.

James Johnson (3,500) (4,300) – In his first 2 games with the Wolves Johnson has gotten 8x value and 6x value off the bench. Tonight he is still cheap enough and in a great spot to do the same. Value is much better on DK, But he is still in play on FD. CHA is allowing the 4th most FPTS to PF. Johnson is averaging over 1 fpt/min in his 2 games with the wolves and averaging 25 mins. I could see a 25-30 fpts performance from him tonight.

Jae Crowder (5,100) (5,300) – I have been hyping Crowder up a lot since before his first game the other night… Looking into MIA and who they had and their game style, I felt Crowder was gonna be a great fit, and boy was I right. I gotta mention him here again tonight. The matchup isn’t the best facing UTA who is very good defensively, especially to the SF and PF positions where they are ranked 2nd and 1st in the league in allowing the least amount of FPTS. But Crowder has been playing great in MIA, at over 10x value his first game and over 8.5x in his second. His price has increased but still not so much to where he can’t get you 30 fpts. I’m Loving my boy Crowder here. Especially playing his former team.

Other Forwards I like ( Mikal Bridges (PHX), Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr. (If Kevin Love sits), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (especially if Ibaka gets ruled out, Rui Hachimura))

Centers —

Karl Anthony Towns (10,500) (10,300) – The matchup is there, but is his ability to get you 60? He hasn’t seen since 60 fpts since January 25th. CHA is allowing the 4th most fpts to Cs on the year and Cody Zeller has a – DRPM rating. It has been a rule this year to play bigs vs CHA.

Nikola Vucevic (9,000) (9,400) – I honestly think Vucevic is a better play here than Towns. He is in an overall better spot, facing DET allowing the 3rd most FPTs to Cs, plus DET is now without Drummond and they have Thon Maker and Christian Wood switching off at the 5. I feel Vuc can completely exploit this matchup. With Towns not reaching over 55 fpts anytime recently and Vuc hitting over 50 fairly consistently recently. I feel he is a much better play than Towns and will probably carry far less ownership.

Cheick Diallo (5,000) (3,700) – Deandre Ayton is listed as Doubtful for tonights game, Ayton missed last game and Diallo got the start and got 25 fpts against a tough Lakers team. Diallo seen a significant price increase on Draftkings. But still almost bare minimum on Fanduel. If your looking to pay up in other positions and need a value Center, I’d roll with Diallo here if Ayton does get ruled out. I think he is a fade on DK though.

NBA Stars & Scrubs – 2/11/20

NBA Stars & Scrubs 
2/11/20
By DfsShepSheet

 

Draftkings Salaries listed first. Fanduel Salaries are second.

Tonight we have a 5 game slate with not much value at the moment. This slate is going to be much tougher to differentiate between the good and bad chalk unless we get some news closer to lock.

GUARDS

Damian Lillard (10,300) (9,800)

As we all know of Dame’s recent hot streak which seems to have slowed down the past couple games. He is in the best spot of all PGs tonight facing a Pelicans team allowing the 7th most fpts to the PG position. On a slate with not much value it might be tough to fit Dame in your lineup. But if you wanna pay up for anyone I think Dame is your guy.

 

Dennis Schroder (6,500) (6,600)

Schroder has been one of the most consistent players as of late and his price seems to stay the same. He has been a strong option for OKC all year and a front runner for the 6th man award. Vegas currently has the Spurs as 8 point favorites which I think is a little bit of a stretch. I would be putting money on OKC to cover this spread as I feel they will keep this a close game. Even though the spurs are ranked the 12th best defending the PG position, Schroder makes for a great play tonight due to his consistency of hitting 35+ night in and night out. The DVP will most likely draw people away and his ownership down so he makes for a very good tournament play.

Ryan Arcidiacono (3,200) (3,500)

If you are looking to fit your lineup with some higher priced guys tonight and we don’t receive any injury news to open up value. Archy boy here is in a great spot. CHI is in a paced up game tonight facing the worst defensive rating team in the league. Vegas has the Bulls favored by 3, but this game could easily get out of hand if Lavine comes to play. This will open the door for guys like Arcidiacono to step in for a larger than normal role. Also he plays at a much faster pace than Satoransky so this game play fits his style well.

Zach Lavine (8,200) (9,000)

Even though he is $800 more on fanduel he takes up 1% less salary which still puts him in play. Like mentioned above, WAS is ranked dead last in defensive rating. WAS is ranked in the middle of the pack in allowing fpts to the SG position. But allowing the 6th most to the SF position. Lavine has been playing at the SF position 67% of the time throughout the year. But with Kriss Dunn out I think Lavine has been playing more at the SG position and Hutchinson at the 3. I wouldn’t let this DVP scare you off Lavine, He has 60+ fpt upside, especially in a matchup vs a terrible defensive team.

Other Guards I like – (Furkan Korkmaz, Marcus Smart)

FORWARDS

Lamarcus Aldridge (6,700) (7,100)

Coming off a 50 fpt performance vs DEN who are no slouch defending bigs. Aldridge is just too cheap here. He is currently coming in as the highest owned player on the slate, making for a great cash play. OKC is ranked in the top 10 defending the PF and C positions. This could potentially make LMA a trap tonight. May be worth fading in tournaments. If your looking for leverage in cash games you could fade him there too and hope he is a trap and doesn’t go off at 50% owned. As I finished writing this, Derozan was just listed as Doubtful for tonights game. This now gives LMA a bigger boost.

Davis Bertans (5,400) (5,800)

The other night I got burned playing Bertans over Rui, but tonight I think it’s a Bertans kind of night. CHI is ranked dead last allowing the most fpts to the PF position. Bertans is currently projected to come off the bench, but to play more minutes than Rui. I like Bertans to come off the bench here, I think he’ll see more usage than being on the court with Beal. Even though CHI is ranked dead last vs the PF, they are allowing the 10th least amount of rebounds in the league. Rui is listed as a versatile forward, but he is more of a rebounded than Bertans. Bertans is averaging 8.4 3pt attemps per game and CHI is allowing the 5th most 3pt attempts per game. I think this matchup is a better suit for Bertans than it will be for Rui. My projection model also has Bertans at over 7x value tonight.

Other Forwards I like (Danillo Gallinari, Robert Covington, Jayson Tatum )

CENTER

Joel Embiid (9,100) (9,800)

So there has been some drama and rumors on the media about Embiid and Simmons not being a good fit. Before last game I was having a conversation with someone about how Embiid just didn’t seem to be playing with any energy, he wasn’t attacking the rim like he used to and just seemed to be hanging around the 3pt line all game. He quickly shut me up last game. Now he is in another good spot tonight facing the Clippers who are a great defensive team ranked 6th in the league. But they are allowing the 7th most fpts to big men. Embiid has 2 60+ fpt games in the last 5 he has played against the Clippers. Whiteside is the other payup Center on the slate tonight and DVP wise, he is in a better spot than Embiid, But Whiteside hasn’t cracked 45 fpts vs NOP and he has faced them twice this year. One game he got 44, the other he got 33. I think with the drama going on in PHI this lights a fire under Embiid to make him want to go show the fans who the boss is in that house and to stick with him by “trusting the process”

Luke Kornet (4,100) (4,400)

Coming off a 31 fpt performance, he is in a great matchup facing a WAS team allowing the 6th most fpts to Cs. My projection model has him projected for 26 fpts which is 6.4x value on DK.

 

 

 

Other Centers I like (Ivaca Zubac, Enes Kanter)

NBA STARS & SCRUBS 1/24/20

NBA STARS & SCRUBS
JANUARY 24TH, 2020
BY DFSSHEPSHEET

Draftkings Salaries listed first. Fanduel Salaries are second.

GUARDS

Andrew Wiggins (7,000) (6,800)

This MIN vs HOU game is currently the highest over/under on the slate tonight, as well as the 2 fastest paced teams on the slate. This means, a lot of points to go around for all players. Wiggins is coming off a 46 fpt game vs CHI. He has a much better matchup facing a HOU team allowing the 8th most fpts to the SF position which is where Wiggins is primarily playing 85% of the time. He plays the other 15% at the SG position where HOU is allowing the 2nd most fpts in the league. At a fast paced game and high over under and a matchup like this. Wiggins should reach value and then some.

Zach Lavine (8,800) (8,800)

Coming off two performances in a row where he couldn’t break 40 fpts which may scare some people off him, I won’t be one of them. I think tonight he bounces back in a matchup vs SAC who are allowing the 3rd most fpts to the SF position. He is listed as a SG on DK and FD, but he primarily plays from the SF position 70% of the time. His secondary position is at SG where SAC is also allowing the 3rd most fpts in the league. This is a prime spot for Lavine to bounce back and hopefully have a massive night like he did a few games ago.

T.J. McConnell (4,900) (4,200)

Brogdon has been ruled out tonight and McConnel is in for a good size role here tonight. IND is facing GS who is allowing the leagues most fpts to the PG position with 53 fpts/game. McConnel is coming off some great games recently which has jacked his price up a little. I wish he was a little lower. But he is still a great play here tonight. Especially on FD where he is 700$ cheaper and eats up 3% less salary.

Other Guards I like – (Kemba Walker, Reggie Jackson, Marcus Smart, Trae Young, D’Angelo Russel, James Harden)

FORWARDS

Jaylen Brown (6,600) (6,200)

Tatum and Kanter have both been ruled out tonight. ORL is currently ranked as the 6th best DEF efficiency team in the league. BOS will have their hands full tonight if they want to pull out the W. So Kemba, Brown, and Smart will need to step it up tonight. In the only game this season where Tatum has missed, it was vs DET and Brown put up 47 fpts… Kemba only managed to get 28 fpts. If I need to pick one or the other… I’m rolling with Brown over Kemba.

T.J. Warren (6,000) (5,600)

With Brogdon out and GS allowing the 4th most fpts to the SF position. Warren should be able to pay off this price tag. He is coming off a 36 fpt performance vs his former team PHX. I look for him to continue with another great performance here tonight. He sees a 2% usg bump with Brogdon off the court.

Danillo Gallinari (6,800) (6,200)

Facing ATL who allows the 8th most fpts to the PF position. Now ATL also is allowing the most fpts to the SF position. Currently I’m seeing Loguentz Dort as the projected starter… I don’t think Dort will be much of a factor, so I think this gives Gallo a bump. ATL is terrible guarding Forwards. Gallo’s archetype is a Versatile Forward where ATL is ranked 27th in the league. He is coming off a pretty poor performance where he didn’t break 30 fpts vs ORL, but like I stated earlier… ORL is pretty decent at Defense this year. Gallo had 2 previous games over reaching over 40. I look for another 40+ performance tonight.

Other Forwards I like (Gordon Hayward, Pascal Siakam, Rudy Gay, Domantis Sabonis)

CENTER

Dewayne Dedmon (4,600) (3,900)

Not much else to say other than… 9x last game.. Not much of an increase in price.. Facing CHI.. Do I need to say more? If your playing Fanduel it kind of sucks playing a Center for your value play. On DK its nice being able to fit 2 Centers in your lineup. Regardless of what I play on. Dedmon will be in my lineup.

Other Centers I like (Andre Drummond, Willie Cauley-Stein, Myles Turner)

NBA STARS & SCRUBS 1/22/20

NBA STARS & SCRUBS
JANUARY 22ND, 2020
BY DFSSHEPSHEET

Draftkings Salaries listed first. Fanduel Salaries are second.

We have a huge 12 game Slate tonight after a 1 game showdown yesterday. Kind of wish they could have split these 2 days up. But, I guess we get what we get. There is still a bunch of news that we are waiting on that can totally sway your lineup construction. I’m gonna try to add some plays on this for some players if they get ruled out.
As of right now the Clippers and Celtics are looking like the high owned stacks since Jaylen Brown has already been ruled out and Kawhi is listed as doubtful. So in this writeup I’m gonna avoid going over the obvious plays from those teams. The players that should see the biggest bumps due to these injuries are…

LAC – Harrell, Lou Will, Beverly, Zubac, Shamet
Bos – Kemba, Tatum, Hayward

GUARDS

Trae Young (9,500) (10,200)

Currently listed as questionable, but if he plays I think he can have an absolute beast of a night. The Clippers have their top players out so I expect ATL being able to keep this game close. The Clippers aren’t the best DVP matchup for PGs on the slate, but Trae is incredibly talented and can get you 60+ fpts on any night. The Clippers are allowing the 12th most fpts to PGs. Trae is also coming off a 70+ fpt game. ATL is one of the worst teams in the league which I’m guessing is why the Clippers are resting Leonard on this B2B. It would be a huge boost in confidence for ATL to pull off the win tonight.

Bradley Beal (7,200)(7,200)

Just too cheap, Since WAS has switched their rotations adding in McRae and Payton in the mix, Beal is averaging a little less usg per game. But Beal is still the top option in WAS and capable of hitting 50+ vs any matchup. Jimmy Butler is currently listed as questionable. If Butler gets ruled out, this will give a big boost to Beal.

Malcolm Brogdon (7,100) (6,700) 

Another player with a price that seems just too low. Brogdon has only hit over 40 fpts once since he returned from injury. He has had a few tough matchups facing UTA and PHI in this span. Tonight he gets a better matchup facing PHX who are allowing the 7th most fpts in the league. You could say Sabonis is the number 1 or number 2 option on IND. PHX is allowing the 6th least amount of fpts to the PF position. If Sabonis does have trouble in this game, Brogdon will need to step it up and take some of that heat off of Sabonis

Other Guards I like – (Patty Mills, Ricky Rubio, Kendrick Nunn, Isaiah Thomas, Reggie Jackson)

FORWARDS

Zach Lavine (9,000) (8,800) 

He is listed as a SG on FD.. But he technically is playing the SF more at 70% and 30% at the SG position. MIN is ranked 27th allowing the 3rd most fpts to the SF position. We seen him go nuts the other night. Last game he didn’t reach 40 fpts but MIL is allowing the 10th least amount of FPTS to SF. In his last 10 games.. 3 games he didn’t reach 40 and those 3 games he had a tough matchup, in 5 games he has reached over 50. The other 2 he hit over 40. It seems to me that DVP is very much key to Lavine here.. If he continues this, then he should get 50+ tonight. The game is also at a 1 point spread, so if this game stays close, I expect it to be mostly because of Lavine.

Nemanja Bjelica (6,700) (5,400) 

Bagley has been ruled out already for tonights game. DET is allowing the 2nd most fpts to the PF position. Bjelica’s price is kind of high on DK but I love him for a good FD play at only 5,400. Could still hit value for you on DK, but hes much safer of a play on FD.

Other Forwards I like (Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, Markieff Morris (if Drummond gets ruled out) )

CENTER

Karl Anthony Towns (10,400) (10,100) 

In an absolute smash spot here tonight facing CHI allowing the 5th most fpts in the league to Cs. Even at a 10k price tag you could get 6x value out of him in a matchup like this. My projection model has him at 66 fpts.

Bam Adebayo (8,400) (8,600) 

If your not trying to play Harrell but don’t wanna pay all the way up for KAT. Bam is in a great spot. WAS is allowing the 2nd most fpts to C.

Other Centers I like (Thomas Bryant, Enes Kanter)

NBA STARS & SCRUBS 1/17/20

NBA STARS & SCRUBS
1/17/20
BY DFSSHEPSHEET

Draftkings Salaries listed first. Fanduel Salaries are second.

GUARD

Malcolm Brogdon (7,000) (6,800) 

Pace up spot ainst MIN. Rematch of their last game. Brogdon went for 37 fpts 2 days ago vs MIN. That was 5.5x DK value.ONot really what was expected of him considering the spot he was in. But you can’t look past how MIN is allowing the most real points to the PG position. Brogdon is averaging 18 pts per game as well as 5 3 pt attempts per game and MN allows the 6th most 3 point attempts to the PG position. If Brogdon can hit a few 3’s and get a few more than his aerage points and the average of the peripheral stats he should be able to hit value.

DeAnthony Melton (4,700) (4,900) 

MEM/CLE

me could be a game stack. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of Defensive Rating. CLE is ranked the 2nd worst Defensive team in the league, and MEM is ranked the 9th worse. Melton coming off the bench sees most the usage on that unit. He is coming off 3 straight games of hitting 6x value at his price today. Facing a weak CLE team he should have no problem continuing that streak.

Shabaz Napier (5,000) (5,000) 

Teague is no longer in the picture in MIN. He has been avera\ging roughly 18+ mins per game recently. I expect Napier to eat up most of those minutes. His production has slowed down significantly since Teague and Wiggins came back from being out. Teague is no longer in the picture, but Wiggins is. Napier is currently being listed as the highest projected owned player on the slate at 34%. He does have a fairly tough matchup facing INDY who is ranked 9th best in the league in DEF rating. They are allowing 47 fpts/gm to the PG position so if Napier can see 30+ minutes tonight, He can come close or maybe get you more than 6x value. On the season he is a .96 fpt/min player. Over the last 5 games though this has decreased down to .70.

Other Guards I like – (Kyle Lowry, Ja Morant, Patty Mills)

FORWARDS

Domantis Sabonis (8,600) (9,000) 

Pricey, but well worth it. Coming off a 58 fpt/gm vs MIN just 2 days ago. Just can’t stop this guy. Having an amazing year all around. Averaging over 6x value in the last 5 games. Even though he is 400$ more on FD, don’t let that scare you away from playing him on that site. He only eats up 15% of your salary on FD compared to 17% on DK. On tonigh’ts slate I think I’d rather pay up for my PFs and C and ge the value in the gd positions.

Jae Crowder (4,600) (4,900) 

Listed a\s questionable as of right now. If he suits up, I love him in tonights matchup. Not only is he in a great spot facing CLE allowing the 6th most fpts to the SF position.. you could also throw in the revenge narrative in with it too. He has been playing great lately. One of my projection models actually has him at close to 9x value on the night. I just can’t overlook that.

Other Forwards I like (DeAndre Hunter, Rudy Gay, Pascal Siakam )

CENTER

Marc Gasol (4,800) (5,000) 

Just too cheap. It’s as simple as that. Facing a team allowing the 4th most FPTS to C’s.. Coming off a game he hit 7x. As long as he gets the minutes hes crushing value all day long here.

Other Centers I like ( Jaren Jackson Jr., Al Horford)oo