MLB Stacks – 5/17/19

MLB Stacks
5/17/19
By dfsdudes

Weather

Shouldn’t be of any concern anywhere. We actually get to bump up some bats today because of really good hitting conditions, Texas being one of them.

Pitching

Jacob deGrom

This is an ELITE MATCHUP for deGrom. Earlier this year, in this same stadium, against this same team (Marlins .088 team ISO and a 25.8k%) he put up 73 FanDuel Points. This is the cash game target, don’t out think it.

Other Options – In order

Joey Lucchesi – TOOOOOOOO CHEAP On FanDuel. Lucchesi will need to navigate through Josh Bell and Starling Marte. Lucchesi has struggled against RH Power bats, Pittsburgh lacks that. The only knock on Lucchesi here is that he doesn’t have any quality starts. He’s pitched really good in spots, and in my opinion is primed to dominate here and go 6 strong.

Frankie Montas – Stream line starters against Detroit, just like Miami – Good K upside here 8.63/9
Gerrit Cole – I really like this whole matchup – Send a message start is what I think
Max Scherzer – The bullpen is bad, have concerns with getting a dub. 39-45 seems to be his output.
Martin Perez – Broken Perez down numerous times on the Deep Dive. Added cutter – added velocity.
Jordan Lyles – Elevating 4Seam FB to get K’s. RHB for padres scare me a little.

Stacks

1. Kansas City Royals – For some reason Vegas forgot it’s Matt Harvey on the hill against them.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers – Bellinger and Pederson have over a .400 ISO vs. RHP.
3. St. Louis Cardinals – Leclerc and Sampson are the worst pitchers on the slate.
4. Oakland Athletics – I love Stephen Piscotty in this stack.
5. Texas Rangers – Left handed bats
6. Arizona Diamondbacks – Its Samardzja on the bump for the Giants, Avila, Peralta, Dyson, Escobar
7. Tampa Bay Rays – CC can still get k’s but wind blowing out, its warm, rays have some bats.
8. Kind of a tie here for me, Astros, Angels, Indians, Twins.

MLB Stacks – 5/10/19

MLB Stacks
5/10/19
By dfsdudes

 

 

Weather

There are weather concerns in Baltimore, New York, Boston and Colorado. None of these ballparks host a weather concern that would cause a PPD, at least not at this point.

Pitching

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler deserves to be the cash game target tonight. Miami has a dismal .093 team ISO, so they lack power numbers. On top of that, they have a team K% of 24.8, one of the highest on the slate. Wheeler has been really good this year, a 27.4k% against lefties and a 24.8k% vs. righties. He only allows a .083 ISO to lefties and a .133 ISO to righties. This is an ELITE matchup for Wheeler.

Other Targets – In order

Tyler Glasnow
Eduardo Rodriguez
Jake Odorizi
Luis Castillo
Zack Grienke
German Marquez
Kenta Maeda

Im Ok with Justin Verlander if you want to use him. I just don’t see the need, he offers duplicate upside to Castillo, Wheeler and Odorizi in their respective match-ups. However, even though Verlander has a 37.7K% against Lefties, and will face 6 LH bats, (Choo, Gallo, Mazara, Odor, Guzman, Cabrera), He also allows a .206 ISO to them. The Rangers are a boom or bust team. The red hot Hunter Pence will hit cleanup today for the Rangers and Verlander will face 3 RH bats (Andrus, Pence, Kiner-Falefa) his K% is much lower at 21.7 to right handed bats and he gives up a higher ISO .224 I don’t have a problem using him, but In tournaments I like the Rangers as a stackable team, super contraian and will be very low owned, with the understanding they could get shut out, or put up 6 runs. Verlander does benefit from being followed by a bullpen that is one of the best, a 2.80 ERA and only a .197 Batting average against.

Stacks

1. Los Angeles Angels
2. Minnesota Twins
3. Los Angeles Dodgers

These three teams grade out as A+ Matchups. Bad starting pitcher and a very bad bullpen behind the starter. Minnesota features the best hitting bump and Nelson Cruz could double dong here.

4. Boston Red Sox
5. Houston Astros
6. Colorado Rockies.
7. Texas Rangers – Nobody is going to own them in my opinion, read above for break down.
8. Cincinatti Reds – Just faced this Giants team. Obviously the ballpark is different, its Oracle and not Great American Small park. On top of that, Rodriguez has bad K% numbers – 18.6% to Lefties and 15.1% to righties. His ISO numbers against him are big… .274 to lefties and .215 against righties. The Giants do have a Top 5 bullpen, but its been taxed so much that they have brought Bede back from Triple A. They are coming home after playing at Cincinnati in run fests and in Colorado in two run fests there.

MLB Stacks – 4/1/19

 

 

 

MLB Stacks
April 1st, 2019
By DfsDudes

 

There are nine games on the MLB Main Slate tonight. The first thing to take into consideration is that there are a lot of teams who are throwing their 5th starter tonight. With that said, some of the teams on this slate, have a 5th starter that won the job late in spring training. Teams fill the 5th starter traditionally with a guy who can eat some innings, a rookie they may be high on, or an absolute GAS CAN!! Lets dive into this.

3. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have started the year on absolute FIRE!!! The Giants come into town tonight having lost three of four to the Padres. The Giants will Start Drew Pomeranz. From a Bullpen standpoint, The Giants have a very solid pen, 12 Innings Pitched in four games played and have struck out 13. Reyes Moronta, Mark Melancon, Will Smith and Sam Dyson look to be very solid. HOWEVER DREW POMERANZ is on the bump. The dodgers have an implied total of 4.5 largely because of the Giants Bullpen. In 26 games last year Pomeranz started 11 games, pitching only 74.0 innings and giving up 87 hits. Overall he was 2-6 with a 6.08 ERA and surrendered 12 HR’s. Lefties hit .281 with a .705 OPS, while RH hitters (Such as Turner, Barnes, Pollock and Kike) hit .301 with a .947 OPS.

2. Toronto Blue Jays
Look, Toronto was in a good spot against the Detroit Tigers in their opening series and didn’t exactly light up the score board. The Blue Jays split with the Tigers (2-2) and were Shut out on Opening Day. They scored 12 runs in four games. The Blue Jays currently have the second highest implied total at 5.2 and I can see them maybe being a little under-owned tonight given the recent disappointments. Tonight, They face a guy who didn’t pitch well, AT ALL, last year in David Hess. Last year in 21 games he started 19 times going 3-10 with a 4.88 ERA a .262 batting average against and surrendered 22 home runs in 103.1 IP. The Lefties get an edge in long balls as Hess gave up 15 Bombs to Lefties and seven to righties. Brandon Drury is really cheap hitting in the two hole, and Randal Girchuk (3-8 vs. Hess, 3 doubles) is only $2900 hitting in the cleanup spot. McKinney, Tellez, Smoak and Hernandez are all in play here as well.

1. Houston Astros
This should be a pretty chalky stalk tonight. Drew Smyly last pitched in the Majors in 2016 and he’s on the bump tonight vs. the Astros in hitter friendly Arlington. Load up Houston. In 2016 Smyly was 7-12 with a 4.88 ERA. As I mentioned on the “On Deck” Video, Tampa Bay was a very competitive team last year and many think they will compete hard again this season. I mention that due to Houston loosing three of four to Tampa Bay in their Opening series. Tonight they’re in Arlington, can you say GET RIGHT SPOT. I love Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Correa, Gurriel, Brantley. Houston should put up a very crooked number tonight. Michael Brantley has started the season, with his new blue 5-13 and 5-16 in his career against Smyly.