Bottom of the Barrel WK7 (NFL DFS)

Bottom of the Barrel WK7
10/20/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Being and honest and transparent are two ideals we need as human beings. Being open and honest as a fantasy sports writer is imperative.

With week 7 of the NFL season upon us a few things are becoming clear. Waiver wire adds, DFS and writing are becoming mundane and exhausting. We’ve officially entered into the quitting portion of fantasy football.

Fantasy football teams are being abandoned, fantasy football writers/podcasters are taking steps back and the grind of the constant work is draining us all. What we’re doing here is clearly a marathon and in no way a sprint. It’s a year round type commitment.

Let me rewind back all the way to March when I become fully entrenched on Twitter. Large groups of people were constantly writing, ranking and broadcasting. It was the off season, there were no deadlines to hit and content didn’t have a expiration date.

Now, lets fast forward to the present time where our content is only relevant for a few days or a week tops. You either get into a strict schedule or you’re lost, passed by. It’s heartbreaking. I truly want us all to succeed. We can all make it. Unfortunately that’s not the case. People are giving up before the miracle happens.

I’ve long said the best way to get along with our writing and broadcasting is to help others. Reach out and share as much content as you can. We all deserve a millions views. A million downloads and a million comments. That’s not realistic and most times it doesn’t go our way.

Shout out to everyone who writes and broadcasts on a daily basis. Shout out to those of you have stepped back. We all have our reasons right? Shout out to anybody who has made a healthy decision here. I love you. I got you!

QUARTERBACK

Not new anymore but here’s the most expensive player at QB in week 7. Should help put B&B prices into perspective!

Patrick Mahomes KC @ DEN (24th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$7,400)

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at QB!

Ben Roethlisberger PIT @ TEN (27th)(FD-$7,400)(DK-$6,600)

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben didn’t have to do much vs. the Browns last week. However, he continued to strengthen his bond with Claypool and James Washington! I’m fully expecting Ben to crank up the volume on Sunday. With volume comes points!

Ryan Tannehill TEN vs. PIT (5th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,200)

Tennessee Titan QB Ryan Tannehill

See what happens when Fanduel doesn’t catch up? What the hell are they doing? Tanny is completely 100% a must start week-to-week now right? You bet your ass he is!

Matthew Stafford DET @ ATL (32nd)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,500)

Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford

Can the Lions get a three game winning streak going? You bet your ass they can! Careful how many times you bet you ass here. Stafford didn’t do much Sunday vs. the JAX and rightfully so seeing how their ground game was lights out. I’m fully expecting an entire air show in ATL Sunday!

Teddy Bridgewater CAR @ NO (29th)(FD-$6,800)(DK-$5,800)

Carolina Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater

Ah Teddy is back with us here at B&B! Teddy has played well in spots this season. That’s what we’re looking to find here at B&B. He’s been very efficient with his passes although the points haven’t added up as much as we’d like. How many of you buy into revenge games? I wouldn’t say this one qualifies seeing how New Orleans took a chance on him and treated him well. Regardless, Teddy B will want to show them what they’re missing!

Kyle Allen WSH vs. DAL (22nd)(FD-$6,700)(DK-$5,200)

Washington QB Kyle Allen

This is a classic of match-up over the actual player. Forget that you’re spending fictitious money on Kyle Allen and just skip ahead to the mouth watering match-up. The Cowboys are in trouble here. Arizona made them look inept and silly. Here’s hoping we can capture some of that magic with Kyle Allen. Can’t believe I just typed that…

RUNNING BACK

Not new anymore but here’s the most expensive player at RB in week 7. Should help put B&B prices into perspective!

Christian McCaffrey CAR v NO (15th)(FD-$10,000)(DK-$8,300)

Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffery

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at RB!

D’Andre Swift DET @ ATL (18th)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$5,400)

Detroit Lions rookie RB D’Andre Swift

It was a real joy to watch the Lions play well and watch Swift show out! After a performance like that it leaves us all asking for an encore! D’Andre should very much give us one Sunday in Atlanta!

Justin Jackson LAC vs. JAX (28th)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$4,900)

LA Chargers RB Justin Jackson

Mr. Jackson had 20 total touches Sunday vs. the Saints. He also out-touched Joshua Kelley 20-12 and out-produced him yardage wise. If you look at the slate Kelley is a touch more expensive than Justin. It’s a no brainer for me here in week 7.

Antonio Gibson WSH vs. DAL (24th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,000)

Washington rookie RB Antonio Gibson

JD McKisson (FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,600)

Something something Dallas’ defense is awful. Something something Gibson/McKissic are splitting touches. Nothing more then a plug and play here!

Zach Moss BUF @ NYJ (26th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,200)

Buffalo Bills RB Zach Moss

Was tough sledding for Devin and Moss Sunday. Obviously the Kansas City Chiefs are at the top of the NFL food chain so I wouldn’t think too much into it. Looking ahead the Bills travel to the Jets and oh boy is it going to be bad news for them and Adam Gase. Who here thinks the Bills get up big, like 21+ points, on Sunday and we see a steady dose of Moss in the second half? Exactly! That’s what I thought!

Jamaal Williams GB @ HOU (31st)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$4,000)

Green Bay Packers RB Jamal Williams

Did you see what Derrick Henry did to the Texans on Sunday? 200+ rushing yards and 2 TD’s. Once of which that ended the game. Henry single handedly took the Texans soul with him after this one. Aaron Jones is the RB1 here in this one but lets get wild and roster J-Will! Lot’s of room to run on a soul-less defense.

La’Mical Perine NYJ vs. BUF (19th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$4,200)

New York Jets rookie RB La’Mical Perine

I respect Frank Gore very much but the Jets would be wise to get the rookie involved. Adam Gase is so bad, “how bad is he Chris?”, he’s starting to effect our DFS decisions now too. Absolutely awful!

Jeremy McNicols TEN vs. PIT (3rd)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,000)

Tennessee Titans RB Jeremy McNicols

Not an ideal match-up for the kid. Henry is no doubt the unquestioned RB1 in Tennessee but in today’s day and age can he realistically carry the ball 30 times?

WIDE RECEIVER

DeAndre Hopkins ARZ vs. SEA (32nd)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$8,200)

Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at WR!

Mike Williams LAC vs. JAX (18th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$4,7000)

LA Chargers WR Mike Williams

That-a-boy Mike! He’s finally come alive. Albeit after Keenan Allen left with injury. Regardless the Chargers are fresh as a daisy coming off their bye week and with studly rookie QB Justin Herbert playing this well, plenty of targets and touches to go around!

Marvin Jones DET @ ATL (28th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,400)

Detroit Lions WR Marvin Jones Jr.

The volume may be lower now that Kenny G is fully healthy, Swift is getting his and Stafford is looking TJ Hock’s way 4-5 times a game but Marvin is Marvin! He’s always been super efficient with his targets. At a sub-6k price tag and this match-up I’m jumping all over it!

Tee Higgins CIN vs. CLE (29th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,300)

Cincinnati Bengals rookie WR Tee Higgins

Life comes at you fast folks! I full expect Tee to be the next graduate here at the B&B DFS academy. The chemistry that’s developing here between Burrow and Higgins in undeniable! Tee continues to see targets. Continues to put up fantastic numbers. Tee and Burrow are on the fast track to super-stardom. Will it translate into real life wins? Not my area of expertise. Long as the fantasy points are accumulating and the money is flowing who has time to worry about real life wins/loses?

Keelan Cole JAX @ LAC (15th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,700)

Jacksonville Jags WR Keelan Cole

Cole has been a pleasant surprise for us DFS players. He continues to rack up receptions, yardage and even touchdowns yet his price remains low. He’s put up 100+ yards or scored in four of his last six games. It’s such a nice floor for the price that you’d be a fool not to roster him!

Tim Patrick DEN vs. KC (5th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,600)

Denver Broncos WR Time Patrick

Remember when I said life comes at you fast like two minutes ago? What about how shocking and totally unpredictable fantasy football is? If I told six months ago that Tim Patrick was going to be the Broncos WR1 heading into week 7? I would’ve been laughed out of the business. Tim has had back-to-back 100yd receiving games and is absolutely a threat to take it home on any given play. Very tough task ahead vs. KC but his volume alone makes him a play!

Gabriel Davis BUF @ NYJ (13th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$3,600)

Buffalo Bills rookie WR Gabriel Davis

Gabe is no stranger to us here at B&B and given the match-up along with his price, undeniable to me! Roster the kid! 75yds and TD in week 7?

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce KC @ DEN (13th)(FD-$7,900)(DK-$6,300)

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at TE!

Logan Thomas WSH vs. DAL (26th)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$3,500)

Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas

Have you heard how awful the Cowboys defense is yet?

Anthony Firkser TEN vs. PIT (9th)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$3,000)

Tennessee Titans TE Anthony Firkser

Keep an eye on Jonnu Smith and his injury designation. He went down Sunday and didn’t return. Tony went wild in his absence! 8 receptions 113 yards and a TD! If Jonnu is out I’m telling you now this is a slam dunk play. Probably my favorite play to be honest!

Drew Sample CIN vs. CLE (22nd)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$3,200)

Cincinnati Bengal TE Drew Sample

Look, if you’re reading this then you know what’s going on day to day in the fantasy community I’d assume. Drew hasn’t done a thing for quite some time. He put up zeros in all statistical categories Sunday week 6. That’s both good and bad. Are you a glass half full kind of person? Or a glass half empty kind of person? He had 0.0 Sunday, so there’s no where to go but up right?

Dawson Knox BUF @ NYJ (20th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$3,300)

Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox

I like to pick on bad teams. it’s the not so very secret to my DFS success. Knox has the Q tag currently but keep in mind as you’re building lines for week 7!

I’ve always enjoyed reading waiver wire articles with a “graduated” portion of the article but that’s not my style. I do want to mention Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Chase Claypool. Hope to see them playing for a long time!

Here are two of my sample lines I’m going to use for week 7! Keep in mind these lines are for entertainment purposes! Please play responsible!

Fanduel Main 10/25

Also look for updated lines closer to lock on Sunday morning 10/25!

Draftkings Main 10/25

Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

NASCAR – The Setup – 101820

The Setup – Hollywood Casino 400
By Tyler Miller
@rickybobby_jr

This weekend NASCAR heads to Kansas Speedway for a triple header playoff weekend with the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup series in action. Kansas Speedway is an intermediate, 1.5 mile, track. After a wild couple of weeks at Talladega and the Charlotte ROVAL, we are back to a “normal” race where I recommend playing mostly cash games and single entry tournaments. Chase Elliott will start from the pole on Sunday as Denny Hamlin will try to win his third straight race at Kansas from the 7th starting position. Let’s get started.

Race Distance: 267 laps, Stage 1 ends on lap 80, Stage 2 ends on lap 160.
Lineup Lock 2:30 pm eastern Sunday
Spring Winner: Denny Hamlin (Started 10th)
Spring Pole Sitter: Kevin Harvick (Finished 4th)
Last year’s winner: Denny Hamlin (Started 23rd)
Last year’s pole sitter: Daniel Hemric (Finished 31st)

Prior race winners:
2019 Spring: Brad Keselowski (4th)
2018 Fall: Chase Elliott (13th)
2018 Spring: Kevin Harvick (1st)
2017 Fall: Martin Truex Jr. (1st)
2017 Spring: Martin Truex Jr. (3rd)

Roval Recap:
What went right?

I would summarize the Roval by saying “So close, yet so far away.” Chase Elliott was my top play on Sunday. He led 27laps, won the race, and scored the second most points on Fan Duel behind Ryan Blaney. Clint Bowyer was a solid play, leading 9 laps and finishing 10th. Jimmie Johnson and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. were good plays, finishing 8th and 9th respectively in Fan Duel scoring. It was close, but it wasn’t a good day overall.

What went wrong?
I should have written up Ryan Blaney. My most difficult decision in my personal lineup on Sunday was between Bowyer, Blaney, and Michael McDowell. I ended up writing Bowyer and McDowell up in the article, and I played McDowell which completely killed my lineup. I needed to play Blaney. It was almost too obvious. I also completely missed on Cole Custer which would have been a fantastic play in tournaments. I thought McDowell was a must play and he was doing well until he spun out twice on the same lap late in the race.

My Fan Duel Lineup was Elliott, Johnson, Bell, Stenhouse, and McDowell which scored 203.3 and failed to cash.
My Draft Kings Lineup was Elliott, Johnson, Bell, Stenhouse, McDowell, and Buescher which scored 228.5 and also failed to cash.

What Vegas thinks (Opening lines via MGM)
Hamlin and Harvick are tied atop the list at 17-4. I prefer Hamlin over Harvick, in fact, I would bet Truex over Harvick on Sunday. My favorite longshot for Sunday would be Alex Bowman at 22-1. Bowman made the round of 8 and knows that wining a race is probably his only hope of racing for a championship at Phoenix. Bowman has been solid at times at 1.5 mile tracks over the past two seasons. Clint Bowyer at 50-1 would also be a great storyline as this is his last race at his home track.
Denny Hamlin 17-4
Kevin Harvick 17-4
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Chase Elliott 13-2
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Joey Logano 14-1
Kyle Busch 14-1

Driver Ratings at Kansas:
1. Kevin Harvick 108.6
2. Matt Kenseth 101.4
3. Jimmie Johnson 100.9
4. Martin Truex Jr. 100.7
5. Chase Elliott 95.2
6. Ryan Blaney 95.0
7. Brad Keselowski 92.8
8. Kyle Busch 92.6
9. Denny Hamlin 90.4
10. Erik Jones 89.4
11. Kurt Busch 88.6
12. Joey Logano 87.4
13. Tyler Reddick 83.3
14. Cole Custer 80.9
15. Clint Bowyer 80.3

Average Running Position
1. Kevin Harvick 8.906
2. Ryan Blaney 9.750
3. Matt Kenseth 11.009
4. Martin Truex Jr. 11.215
5. Jimmie Johnson 11.289
6. Erik Jones 12.294
7. Chase Elliott 12.294
8. Brad Keselowski 12.645
9. Denny Hamlin 13.004
10. Kyle Busch 13.056
11. Tyler Reddick 13.870
12. Kurt Busch 14.196
13. Joey Logano 15.234
14. Cole Custer 16.026
15. Clint Bowyer 16.995

Laps Led
1. Kevin Harvick 816 (12.3% of laps run)
2. Martin Truex Jr 803 (12.6)
3. Matt Kenseth 760 (13.0)
4. Jimmie Johnson 581 (8.8)
5. Joey Logano 431 (7.3)
6. Kyle Busch 380 (6.0)
7. Denny Hamlin 284 (4.5)
8. Kurt Busch 267 (4.0)
9. Brad Keselowski 247 (4.4)
10. Ryan Blaney 171 (5.8)

Spring Top 10:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Erik Jones
6. Aric Almirola
7. Cole Custer
8. Alex Bowman
9. Kurt Busch
10. William Byron

2019 Fall Top 10:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Chase Elliott
3. Kyle Busch
4. Kurt Busch
5. William Byron
6. Martin Truex Jr.
7. Erik Jones
8. Clint Bowyer
9. Kevin Harvick
10. Jimmie Johnson

2019 Spring Top 10:
1. Brad Keselowski
2. Alex Bowman
3. Erik Jones
4. Chase Elliott
5. Clint Bowyer
6. Jimmie Johnson
7. Kurt Busch
8. Kyle Larson
9. Tyler Reddick
10. Chris Buescher

2018 Fall Top 10:
1. Chase Elliott
2. Kyle Busch
3. Kyle Larson
4. Erik Jones
5. Martin Truex Jr.
6. Brad Keselowski
7. Ryan Blaney
8. Joey Logano
9. Alex Bowman
10. Aric Almirola

Denny Hamlin ($13,500/10,600) Hamlin is my pick to win the race. I’m not going out on much of a ledge, Hamlin has ran well at intermediate tracks dating back to the first race at Kansas this summer (which he won). Hamlin is starting 7th, I’d expect a strong showing from all the Gibbs cars on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. ($12,500/11,000) Truex’s pricing is interesting because he is cheaper than Hamlin on Fan Duel and more expensive on Draft Kings. Truex has had success at Kansas with laps led in each of his past two races at the track including a 3rd place finish in the first race this year. I think Hamlin is a solid pivot away from Hamlin, but I like Hamlin over Truex.

Kyle Busch ($11,200/9,900) Kyle Busch is a must play on both sites for Kansas. Busch is starting 20th and despite the lackluster season he is experiencing (he was eliminated from the playoffs last week), he is still motivated to go after wins. Busch has one win at Kasnas (Spring of 2016) and 9 top 10 finishes in his past 11 races at the track. I like Kyle to compete inside the top 5 and be a top 3 points scorer in DFS on Sunday.

Erik Jones ($10,200/8,400) Kansas is a really good track for Erik Jones. Jones is close to announcing plans for the 2021 season as he will not be back in the 20 car next year (probably heading to the 43 to replace Bubba Wallace). After missing the playoffs, Jones has put together really good finishes during the playoffs: 4th at Darlington, 22nd at Richmond, 3rd at Bristol, 8th at Las Vegas, 2nd at Talladega, and 3rd last week at the Roval. Jones has finished inside the top 10 in his last 5 races at Kansas, including 3 top 5 finishes. Starting 11th, I think so DFS players will overlook Jones on Sunday. There is limited potential for differential points, but I like Jones to finish 4th-8th on Sunday.

Alex Bowman ($11,000/8,600) I would put Alex Bowman in the same boat as Erik Jones but with more risk of negative differential. Bowman is starting 6th and could easily run inside the top 10 all race long. Bowman has finished 11th or better in his last 4 races at Kansas, including a runner up finish in the spring 2019 race where he led 63 laps. There is a part of me that thinks Bowman could find his way to victory lane on Sunday at seriously change the complexion of the championship 4 at Phoenix. I don’t know if he fits in a cash game lineup, but I think the possibility is there for Bowman to compete for the win.

John Hunter Nemechek ($5,500/6,100) In my opinion, John Hunter Nemechek is the only value driver that should be considered on Sunday. Nemechek finished 19th at Kansas in July. In two Xfinity races at Kansas he won and finished 8th and in three truck series races at Kansas he has 2 top 5 finishes. I don’t know if Nemechek can finish inside the top 20, but I think a finish in the low 20s is a possibility which would make him a solid value play on Sunday.

Michael McDowell ($7,200/5,700) Michael McDowell is too expensive to play on Fan Duel, but I think he makes sense as your 6th guy on DK to finish out a lineup. McDowell is starting 26th and he finished 16th at Kansas in July. I don’t expect McDowell to finish top 15, but on DK, he could get a couple differential points and finish in the top 25. I might be suffering from recency bias because McDowell cost me a lot of money last week at the Roval.

There are two drivers that I think are locks for Sunday, Kyle Busch and John Hunter Nemechek. I like Hamlin to win the race. I like the current hot streak that Erik Jones is on plus his solid record at Kansas. That leaves me with one spot to fill on Fan Duel. I am likely going to play Jimmie Johnson. This is one of those tracks that Johnson was really good at before 2017 but he hasn’t done much in the past 7 races at the track. Johnson finished 32nd in July due to the damaged vehicle policy. That’s where I am at, good luck to all our subscribers this weekend!

Bottom of the Barrel WK6 (NFL DFS)

Bottom of the Barrel WK6
10/13/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

This is downright strange. Or is it absolutely awful? As I type this I’m still thinking about Tuesday night professional football. Come to find out that’s never happened in the history of the NFL? Or has it? Oh 2020 how we loathe thee. Or do we love this idea?

That’s the thing! No one can decide! No one can agree! We’re stuck in this early week purgatory waiting for football but also wanting to look ahead to our week 6 waivers and our week 6 DFS slates!

Look, I’m not complaining at all. That’s not my style. I’m also not blaming the DFS sites. I’m too easy going for that. We are allowed to be a little irritated and frustrated. When you turn everything over to computers and algorithms this is bound to happen. My trusted ole pen and paper has never blacked out or delayed me!

DFS has become a juggernaut. It’s given birth to thousands of websites and podcasts. Lets be honest, its changed the way we all play fantasy sports. Personally, I love it. That’s where this whole article and most of my content has come from.

As human beings we’re good and adapting and overcoming. Case and point; 2020. We are in the home stretch now friends. Little over two months left in the year. Lets be mindful of each other and treat everybody with respect. Kill em’ with kindness as my late father used to say!

What you find horrid and nasty I find exciting and opportunity! Week 6 here we come!

QUARTERBACK

I have a new idea! A new feature if you will. Give out the most expensive player at each position as we get to it. Putting into perspective the B&B prices!

Lamar Jackson BAL @ PHI (14th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$7,600)

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at QB!

Ryan Tannehill TEN v HOU (8th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$5,900)

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill

Quick turn-a-round for the Titans this week. With a monster RB like Henry I don’t think it matters much. Tanny has posted 13 multi-TD games in his last 14 games. Good bet he does it again Sunday at home vs. Houston’s 21st overall ranked defense.

Matthew Stafford DET @ JAX (27th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,200)

Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford

Fresh off the bye week the Lions travel to Jacksonville in what should be a winnable plus match-up. As a Detroit Lions fan that means squat. Stafford is averaging 250+ passing yards a game along with 2 TD’s per contest. He’s a safe bet to hit those numbers Sunday.

Kirk Cousins MIN v ATL (32nd)(FD-$7,100)(DK-$6,100)

Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

Minnesota has shown some life their last few games. Looking ahead to Sunday it doesn’t get any sweeter then the Atlanta Falcons. As you read on you’ll notice a Viking type theme going on! Roster Kirk in week 6! As Bob Barker would say, “the price is right!”

Daniel Jones NYG v WSH (28th)(FD-$6,700)(DK-$5,400)

New York Giants QB Daniel Jones

5 interceptions, 16 sacks and a fumble in each of the last 4 games. I do this to myself quite often when putting this article together. So why would we use Danny Jones in week 6? He has to break out of this funk sooner or later right? You’d think so right? To be honest the Washington DST is the play in this one.

Alex Smith WSH @ NYG (5th)(FD-$6,500)(DK-$5,000)

Comeback Player of the Year Alex Smith?

I’m sure we can all agree seeing Alex on the field in week 5 was spectacular. Ron Rivera did say if Kyle Allen is healthy enough he’s the starting QB. Regardless, I’m happy he’s healthy and proud to mention him in B&B! Shout out to Mike F @DaddysHomeFF!

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey CAR v CHI (13th)(FD-$10,000)(DK-$8,500)

Carolina Panther RB Christian McCaffrery

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at RB!

David Montgomery CHI @ CAR (32nd)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$5,800)

Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery

Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe D-Mont is arguably the best RB play of week 6. I was shocked to see him under 6k. Very excited and happy but surprised! Without Cohen David is seeing all the backfield touches. Goal-line work included! The volume he will see in week 6 alone makes him a slam-dunk play!

Antonio Gibson WSH @ NYG (20th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,500)

Washington rookie RB Antonio Gibson

Gibby has seen back-to-back 5 target weeks and is fully entranced as WSH lead back. On Sunday they travel to the NYG for a very positive match-up! Look for Antonio to do it all for our DFS teams this Sunday!

Myles Gaskin MIA v NYJ (28th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,400)

Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

Gaskin is putting together some nice weekly averages. Looking ahead to week 6 MIA finds themselves in a sweet spot. I fully expect Myles to see 15-16 touches and around 80 total scrimmage yards. In addition to price point I love the play.

Damien Harris NE v DEN (1st)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$5,000)

New England Patriots RB Damien Harris

This game was originally suppose to be played last week. Instead both teams got bye weeks and will try again this Sunday. Harris was all the buzz last time out after getting 17 carries and accumulating 100 yards. With an extra week to prepare I’m counting on Harris to see a ton of touches in unison with James White.

D’Andre Swift DET @ JAX (24th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,500)

Detroit Lions rookie RB D’Andre Swift

Swift is no doubt the best pass catching back on this Lions team. When will the Lions let him loose and give him a full work load? For his price on both sites this week I’m willing to take that bet! #FreeSwift

Mike Boone MIN v ATL (23rd)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,000)

Minnesota Vikings RB Mike Boone

Dalvin Cook has already been ruled out for week 6. Enter Alexander Mattison! I say in walks Boone and matches Alex’s touches! The classic case of zigging when others zag! Boone has always been very productive when he sees the field. That’s the issue! With a healthy Cook it leaves Mike the odd man out. Week 6 is your DFS window for Boone!

Ke’Shawn Vaughn TB v GB (31st)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,000)

Let’s be honest, a large portion of us want Vaughn to be a thing. Well I do at least. Let me also say that if Leo Fournette is active Ke’Shawn is a non-factor.

Gus Edwards BAL @ PHI (12th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$4,000)

Baltimore Ravens RB Gus Edwards

The Ravens back-field has been a mystery so far this season. Fantasy players are currently dropping Mark Ingram. That’s how crazy this 2020 season has been so far. Gus is averaging 6.8 carries a game. Through the first few games Edwards has a 6.2 YPC. I like his odds this week in Philly.

WIDE RECEIVER

Davante Adams GB @ TB (10th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-8,000)

Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at WR!

Justin Jefferson MIN v ATL (25th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$6,000)

Minnesota Vikings rookie WR Justin Jefferson

Admittedly JJ’s price is towing the line for B&B but he’s under 6k at home against an awful Falcons team. He’s averaging 74.2 receiving a yards a game to go with 3.8 receptions a contest. Don’t think twice about it! ROSTER JJ in week 6!

Chase Claypool PIT v CLE (30th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$5,200)

Pittsburgh Steelers rookie WR Chase Claypool

What a coming out party for the kid in week 5! There’s nothing I can say you don’t already know. Give the rookie a shot in week 6 while his price is still manageable.

N’Keal Harry NE v DEN (27th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,500)

New England Patriots WR N’Keal Harry

I try and stay away from players who’s value is tied to another. Meaning, long as Cam Newton is the starting QB for the Pats I like Harry as a DFS play. Keep an eye on Cam the next few days. Nothing official yet either way.

Darnell Mooney CHI @ CAR (6th)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$3,000)

Chicago Bears Darnell Mooney

Did you know Mooney has been targeted 5 fives times in two of their last three games? He’s also played the 2nd most snaps of all the Chicago WR’s. Foles threw some awful passes last time out but with another week of practice under their belt here’s hoping for some chemistry!

Danny Amendola DET @ JAX (19th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,100)

Detroit Lions WR Danny Amendola

Danny will never put up WR1 numbers each week for your DFS team. He will however produce a safe floor at a low price enabling you to roster one, may two WR1’s! It’s strategic move this week!

Darrius Shepherd GB @ TB (10th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$3,000)

Green Bay Packers WR Darrius Shepherd

The Packers stud WR1, Adams, has practiced in full all week. Green Bay rarely gets into 3+ WR sets during the game. I still find some sort of value for Darrius here in week 6. He’s literally the cheapest you can get at WR.

TIGHT END

Mark Andrews BAL @ PHI (29th)(FD-$7,600)(DK-$6,500)

Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at TE!

Tight end is a wasteland for cheaper options this week. So tread lightly!

Trey Burton IND v CIN (19th)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$3,100)

Indianapolis Colts TE Trey Burton

Here’s a guy that’s always bugged the heck out of me. All the potential in the world but just can’t put it together. Always on and off the IR and injury reports. I know he can only do so much. Phil Rivers seemingly looks his way when he’s on the field. Whatever that’s worth.

Tyler Eifert JAX v DET (6th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$3,400)

Jacksonville Jaguars TE Tyler Eifert

Eifert didn’t practice Wednesday due to a neck stinger but reports out of Jacksonville are saying they aren’t worried about his status Sunday v the Lions. I have this odd feeling Tyler scores a few times Sunday. I don’t know! I can’t shake it!

Richard Rodgers PHI v BAL (17th)(FD-$4,400)(DK-$2,500)

Philadelphia Eagles TE Richard Rodgers

I honestly have no idea what the heck is going on in Philly. Goedert is still not playing. Zach Ertz looks slow and washed. Something something Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. All in all it’s quite awful.

Irv Smith Jr. MIN v ATL (32nd)(FD-$4,300)(DK-$2,500)

Minnesota Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr.

If the Irv Jr. breakout game doesn’t happen this week friends it’s not happening at all.

Nick Boyle BAL @ PHI (29th)(FD-$4,100)(DK-$2,500)

Baltimore Ravens TE Nick Boyle

Boyle played 62 offensive snaps in week 5! His largest total of the season. We’ve seen Lamar feed Mark Andrews several times this season. Who’s to say PHI doesn’t take away Mark leaving Boyle open a time or two?

Here are two of my sample lines I’m going to use for week 6! Keep in mind these lines are for entertainment purposes! Please play responsible!

Fanduel 10/18 1p MAIN

Also look for updated lines closer to lock on Sunday morning 10/18!

Draftkings 10/18 1p MAIN

Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

NASCAR – The Setup – 101020

The Setup – Bank of America ROVAL 400
By Tyler Miller
@rickybobby_jr

NASCAR heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 on Sunday afternoon. Rain is in the forecast and if the Cup race turns out to be anything like the Xfinity race on Saturday you can expect the unexpected. This is only the third race at the ROVAL, which combines the infield road course with the traditional oval at Charlotte Motor Speedway. This track takes drivers out of their comfort zone and creates an unpredictable type of racing, comparable to what we see on superspeedways like Talladega last weekend. This fact is accentuated by the threat of rain and NASCAR’s affinity for wet weather racing on road courses. From a DFS perspective, my approach is the same as my approach to Daytona and Talladega, no cash games and larger entry fee single entry contests. Playing cash games on Sunday doesn’t make any sense because the risk outweighs the reward. Let’s get started.

Race Distance: 109 laps, Stage 1 ends on lap 25, Stage 2 ends on lap 50.
Lineup Lock 2:30 pm eastern Sunday
Last year’s winner – Chase Elliott (Started 19th)
Last year’s pole sitter: William Byron (Finished 6th)
Prior race winners:
2018: Ryan Blaney (Started 9th)

Talladega Recap:
What went right?

First of all, I love Talladega. I enjoyed every second of the race last Sunday. My write-up last week only included one driver in the top 5 of Fan Duel scoring (Tyler Reddick) but I still cashed in my biggest payday to date with a second place in the $1K Sun NAS Gas Pedal ($25 single entry) on Fan Duel. My top plays were Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott. Elliott worked out the best with 41 laps led, a 5th place finish and scoring the 7th most points on Fan Duel. Blaney and Logano both led laps but had issues late. Blaney ended up being the better play scoring 30.7 points on Fan Duel compared to Logano’s 29.3, but that was basically a wash. My best play from The Setup was Justin Haley. Haley finished the race 11th with +24 differential which was good enough for 8th in Fan Duel scoring at $5.5K and low ownership. Avoiding Stenhouse (I wrote him up but said I wouldn’t play him) was also a really good move. Stenhouse was highly owned (51% in my single entry contest) which led to a clear path to cashing on Sunday. I had Bubba Wallace and Matt Kenseth written up and they were both solid plays, scoring more points than Blaney/Logano, but they didn’t really light the world on fire. The combination of using Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, and Justin Haley and avoiding Stenhouse led to a big payday on Sunday.

What went wrong?
I was high on Brendan Gaughan and he got collected in the Kurt Busch crash. Gaughan really wasn’t that big of a deal because he was so highly owned, especially on Fan Duel where his price was much lower compared to Draft Kings. I wrote William Byron up but didn’t get him enough consideration for my lineup. Overall, it was a great race and I’m not going to complain.

What Vegas thinks (Saturday PM lines via Draft Kings Sportsbook)
Chase Elliott is favored at +275. I would be willing to bet that one of the top four favorites (Elliott, Truex, Hamlin, or Harvick) will win this race. If you are looking for a longshot, go with Jimmie Johnson at +2000.

Chase Elliott +275
Martin Truex Jr +500
Denny Hamlin +800
Kevin Harvick +800
Ryan Blaney +1200
Clint Bowyer +1400
Kyle Busch +1400
Brad Keselowski +1500
Joey Logano +1600
Alex Bowman +2000
Jimmie Johnson +2000

Driver Ratings at the ROVAL:
1. Chase Elliott 122.0
2. Kevin Harvick 111.7
3. Jimmie Johnson 105.0
4. Clint Bowyer 103.5
5. Martin Truex Jr. 101.3
6. William Byron 98.6
7. Brad Keselowski 97.6
8. Ryan Blaney 96.1
9. Kurt Busch 85.9
10. Joey Logano 85.9
11. Alex Bowman 84.9
12. Kyle Busch 79.0
13. Aric Almirola 77.0
14. Michael McDowell 73.3
15. Matt DiBenedetto 72.0

Average Running Position
1. Kevin Harvick 6.390
2. Chase Elliott 8.188
3. Martin Truex Jr. 8.862
4. Jimmie Johnson 9.385
5. Clint Bowyer 10.977
6. William Byron 11.590
7. Brad Keselowski 11.966
8. Ryan Blaney 12.803
9. Joey Logano 13.966
10. Kurt Busch 15.188
11. Kyle Busch 15.541
12. Daniel Suarez 16.142
13. Michael McDowell 16.606
14. Aric Almirola 16.706
15. Alex Bowman 17.656

Laps Led
1. Chase Elliott 35 (16.1% of laps run)
2. Kevin Harvick 34 (15.6)
3. Brad Keselowski 32 (14.7)
4. William Byron 23 (10.6)
5. Ryan Blaney 16 (7.3)

2019 Top 10:
1. Chase Elliott
2. Alex Bowman
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Clint Bowyer
5. Brad Keselowski
6. William Byron
7. Martin Truex Jr.
8. Ryan Blaney
9. Jimmie Johnson
10. Joey Logano

2018 Top 10:
1. Ryan Blaney
2. Jamie McMurray
3. Clint Bowyer
4. Alex Bowman
5. Kurt Busch
6. Chase Elliott
7. A.J. Allmendinger
8. Jimmie Johnson
9. Kevin Harvick
10. Joey Logano

Chase Elliott ($13,500/10,600) Chase Elliott is the top play. He is the favorite to win, he has a ridiculious driver rating in his two races at the ROVAL and he has won three road course races in a row including the Daytona road course earlier this year, the ROVAL a year ago, and Watkins Glen in the summer of 2019. Starting second, Chase is a bit of a risk. In the even he has an incident or wipes out in the rain he could kill a lineup, but I think he leads a lot of laps on Sunday and finishes in the top 3.

Kevin Harvick ($13,000/9,900) Kevin Harvick is the natural pivot away from Chase Elliott. Harvick has been really solid in his two races at the ROVAL finishing 3rd last year and 9th in the inaugural event. I don’t think you can fit Harvick and Elliott together on Fan Duel, but in a multi-entry situation, I like him slightly less than Elliott on Sunday.

Clint Bowyer ($11,300/8,800) I really like Clint Bowyer on Sunday. Bowyer has been outstanding at the ROVAL with two top 5 finishes and a driver rating of 103.5. I think Bowyer is a great play, but its difficult to play him because I don’t think the laps led will be there and there are so many other drivers that are going to get huge positive differential. Overall, Bowyer is a solid play on either site.

Jimmie Johnson ($10,600/9,100) Starting 30th, Jimmie Johnson is a no brainer for Sunday afternoon. While 2020 has not been the year Johnson had hoped for, this is a track where he could compete for the win and come away with some positive feelings about his last full-time season in the sport. I would play Jimmie Johnson with confidence on Sunday.

Michael McDowell ($9,000/8,100) Michael McDowell is a solid mid-tier play for the ROVAL on Sunday. McDowell is starting 31st and has the potential for a top 15, maybe even a top 10 finish on Sunday. My only issue with McDowell is that he is priced up significantly from his typical salary. If you can fit McDowell, particularly on DK, you should seriously consider him for a top 15 and +15 differential.

Chris Buescher ($7,000/6,900) Chris Buescher is my money maker on Sunday. I expect him to be very low owned and starting 21st, he can get a solid +5 differential and a top 15 finish at a value price. Buescher has solid road course stats in his young career. Buescher has finishes of 17th and 18th in two races at the ROVAL, he finished 5th at the Daytona road course earlier this year, he has 3 top 20 finishes in his last 3 races at Watkins Glen, and he has finished on the lead lap in each of his 4 races at Sonoma with 3 top 20 finishes. Nobody talks about him, but Buescher is a solid road racer and I think he is a great contrarian play on Sunday if you want to get away from Stenhouse and/or Christopher Bell who will be chalk.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,600/7,700) As soon as I saw the starting lineup, I knew this would be a thorn in my side. Since Stenhouse wrecked early at Talladega he is starting last at the ROVAL. I do not trust Stenhouse to run a clean race on Sunday, but his ownership will be too high and there is too much upside for you to fade him on Sunday. Stenhouse could easily finish the race 20th, get +18 differential and be highly owned to the point where it is nearly impossible to cash without him. I don’t like it, but you probably have to play him on Sunday.

Christopher Bell ($7,600/7,500) Christopher Bell is starting 35th, which makes him difficult to fade on Sunday. I think Bell will be lower owned on Fan Duel because of his salary, but he should be seriously considered on both sites due to the potential for positive differential.

Some quick math (using Fan Duel scoring): If Bell finishes 19th (Matt DiBenedetto finished 11th in this car a year ago) he will score 22 points for the position, 8 points for differential (+16) and 10.9 for 109 laps run (assuming he finishes on the lead lap). That total would be 40.9. If Chase Elliott finishes 10th, he would score 31 points for the position, -4 for differential (-8) and 10.9 for 109 laps run. That total would be 37.9. Under this scenario, even if Chase Elliott led 25 laps he would still score fewer points than Christopher Bell.

My strategy for this race is to pick the winner and then load up on drivers who are starting 30th or worse and have a realistic shot at a top 15 finish. Chase Elliott was so much faster than everyone else last year that he crashed in turn 1 as the leader, pitted, restarted at the back, and then passed everyone in the final stage to win the race. I think Elliott could dominate this race but the weather could play a huge factor. Good luck!

Bottom of the Barrel WK5 (NFL DFS)

Bottom Of the Barrel WK5
10/5/2020
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

What a Sunday! What a weekend! What a week for Bottom of the Barrel!

It’s week 5 now and week 4 is behind us! We have to move fast in this fantasy football world! Only way to survive is planning ahead!

QUARTERBACK

I have a new idea! A new feature if you will. Give out the most expensive player at each position as we get to it. Putting into perspective the B&B prices!

Patrick Mahomes KC v LV (9th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$7,700)

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at QB!

Joe Burrow CIN @ BAL (22nd)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,000)

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow

Joe is the real deal! Burrow just set a rookie QB record! 3 straight 300 yard passing performances by a rookie QB. Playing in BAL is no easy task but let’s see what this rookie is all about! Joe should be lowed due to the match-up but I’m loving the potential in this one!

Teddy Bridgewater CAR @ ATL (32nd)(FD-$7,100)(DK-$5,900)

Carolina Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy! It’s great to see him on the field and running around again isn’t it? Let’s be honest this Carolina team has a little momentum winning two in a row! They now head to ATL (0-4) and the match-up couldn’t be any better.. The Falcons are reeling, to say the least, while the Panthers putting it all together! No disrespect to Teddy but this play has everything to do with the match-up.

Phil Rivers IND @ CLE (30th)(FD-$6,900)(DK-$5,800)

Indianapolis Colts QB Phillip Rivers

Phil is Phil! Sunday in CLE may just be the game we see the old bolo tie wearing gun slinger! CLE ranks 20th overall vs. the pass while Rivers sits around 7th in overall net passing yards per attempt. I know that’s a long shot statistic but it could be a perfect storm in Cleveland!

C.J. Beathard SF v MIA (29th)(FD-$6,000)(DK-$5,300)

San Francisco 49ers QB CJ Beathard

Assuming Jimmy G is still out for week 5 and assuming Nick Mullens is benched for C.J. I really like this match-up. You know what they say when we assume? Makes an ass out of you and me. Get it?

Tua Tagovailoa MIA @ SF (8th)(FD-$6,200)(DK-$5,400)

Miami Dolphins rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins coach Brian Flores hasn’t committed to a starter in week 5. The entire fantasy football community is on pins and needles waiting for Tua’s debut. I’m with you! Lets pay close attention to this one…

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliot DAL v NYG (17th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$7,800)

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at RB!

D’Ernest Johnson CLE v IND (2nd)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,700)

Cleveland Browns RB D’Ernest Johnson

I’m sure you’ve heard Nick Chubb is on the IR. It’s very unfortunate but it’s now an opportunity for Johnson. Who filled in very well Sunday. To the tune of 13 carries for 95 yards. CLE has been very run heavy the first few games of the season. I don’t see that changing now. Hunt will no doubt see all the passing down work but what if I could promise you 10+ carries from D’Ernest?

J.K. Dobbins BAL v CIN (22nd)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,300)

Baltimore Ravens rookie RB J.K. Dobbins

Something has to give here right? Ingram, Gus and Dobbins are all in the mix. It’s driving JK owners nuts. Sunday v CIN should afford Dobbins more chances. With chances come opportunity. With opportunity comes fantasy points.

Reggie Bonnafon CAR @ ATL (13th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,200)

Carolina Rb Reggie Bonnafon

We all thought Reggie was CMC’s handcuff right? Come find out Mike Davis is good at football! Reggie caught a TD in week 4 then they sent him back down to the practice squad Monday. So if they call Reggie up again they have to keep him on the active roster or risk losing him on waivers. CMC is still a week out so I fully expect a Davis/Reggie backfield week 5 in ATL. It’s such a plus match-up both backs can be successful.

Brian Hill ATL v CAR (31st)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$4,000)

Atlanta Falcons RB Brian Hill

Hill was given some very high upside attempts Monday but fell short of anything productive. Which is fine. Just sets him up nice Sunday v CAR who just happens to be the worst graded team v pass catching RB’s. Carolina has given up 27 receptions to RB’s.

Jordan Wilkins IND @ CLE (27th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$4,000)

Indianapolis Colts RB Jordan Wilkins

A lot of you were upset with Jon Taylor’s usage Sunday and rightfully so. Hines and Wilkins received some major work behind him. Is that a sign of things to come? I doubt with a young stud like JT but we need to think ahead and prepare just in case.

Anthony McFarland Jr. PIT v PHI (19th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,000)

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Anthony McFarland Jr.

James Connor is no doubt the lead back in PIT. McFarland and Snell split carries behind him Sunday. Anthony took advantage and did more with his carries then Snell. I have no issue putting McFarland in some of my GGP lines Sunday. I’m expecting the rookies first NFL touchdown at home this weekend! The word “electric” was also thrown around after his week 4 preformance!

WIDE RECEIVER

DeAndre Hopkins ARZ @ NYJ (10th)(FD-$8,700)(DK-$7,900)

Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at WR!

CeeDee Lamb DAL v NYG (19th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$6,000)

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb

Oh c’mon! CeeDee is still ONLY $5,900 on FanDuel? Fresh off a 5 reception, 79 yard and 2 touchdown game his price goes up only $300? It’s shocking quite frankly! He’s right on the cusp of being too much for B&B but until his price increases get used to seeing him here! Can you blame me?

Cole Beasley BUF @ TEN (21st)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,700)

Buffalo Bills WR Cole Beasley

I’ve never been big on Cole and I was wrong Sunday. This Buffalo team is very good and Josh Allen can support 3-4 WR’s! I know! It’s wild right? Cole is currently on pace for 1,000 yards too! Beasley will continue to be a favorite option for Allen moving forward and that alone makes him worth the price!

Tim Patrick DEN @ NE (24th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,400)

Denver Broncos WR Time Patrick

I could write and write about Tim and his prospects all day long. How many people would read it though? To keep it simple, Patrick lead the Broncos in targets, receptions and receiving yards Sunday. He looks to have a strong connection with young QB Brett Rypien. At his DFS price that’s enough for me to add him!

Hunter Renfrow LV @ KC (1st)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,900)

Las Vegas Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow

The Raiders rookie WR’s are still hurt it seems. Giving Hunter more playing time and targets. It’s a tough task Sunday vs. a fast and hungry KC secondary but Carr has looked fantastic to start the season. The snaps are there and the price is right!

Jeff Smith NYJ v ARZ (3rd)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$3,000)

New York Jets WR Jeff Smith

Who? How many people in the world do you think have this name? Jeff Smith! Another kid who has been thrust into a starting role due to injuries. Keep a close eye on Perriman. If he’s unable to play Sunday Mr. Smith will play opposite of Crowder and for this price you could do worse. Right?

Gabriel Davis BUF @ TEN (21st)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$3,400)

Buffalo Bills rookie WR Gabriel Davis

Gabe Davis played so well last Sunday I had to add him again! As I said above, Allen can support all these different combos of WR’s! Davis has no doubt carved out a role in Buffalo!

Isaiah Ford MIA @ SF (11th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$3,500)

Miami Dolphins WR Isaiah Ford

Has Ford taken over the WR2 role in MIA? Not sure. Has he taken to Chan Gailey’s offensive game plan? Absolutely! Whatever is going on I want a slice of it. Ford looks fast and elusive! He’s the reason I created this article!

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce KC v LV (8th)(FD-$7,800)(DK-$6,400)

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

Aside from the no doubt must start stud TE’s this position is pretty shallow in week 5. I t would be rude of me to just skip it all together!

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at TE!

Jordan Akins HOU v JAX (24th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$3,300)

Houston Texans TE Jordan Akins

Akins suffered a concussion Sunday so keep an eye on him. This Sunday, week 5, against JAX is a very juicy match-up. If he plays he’s in my lineup.

Dawson Knox BUF @ TEN (25th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$3,600)

Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox

Tyler Kroft BUF @ TEN (25th)(FD-$4,400)(DK-$3,000)

I’m going to lump both Buffalo TE’s together here if you don’t mind? What are the chances we see a repeat of a few weeks ago and both BUF TE catch a TD? I’d say not half bad given the match-up!

Blake Bell DAL v NYG (9th)(FD-$4,200)(DK-$2,800)

Dallas Cowboys TE Blake Bell

Raise your hand if you’ve heard of Blake Bell? That’s what I thought! Dallas welcomes the Giants to Jerry World Sunday in an NFC East match-up. It has all the makings of Zeke Elliot game here. In turn, screams 2-3 TD game from their TE’s! Shultz is the TE1 in Dallas but don’t forget about Bell!

Dan Arnold ARZ @ NYJ (18th)(FD-$4,200)(DK-$3,200)

Arizona Cardinals TE Dan Arnold

Dan Connor AKA Dan Arnold makes his return to B&B simply due to match-up. The O/U in this one sits at 48.5 points as of now. It just screams Cardinals blow out doesn’t it?

Here are two of my sample lines I’m going to use for week 5! Keep in mind these lines are for entertainment purposes! Please play responsible!

Fanduel 10/11 Main

Also look for updated lines closer to the start of the season! This Thursday 10/8 and Sunday morning 10/11!

Draftkings Main 10/11

Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

I Hate Fantasy Football Players THE END!

I Hate Fantasy Football Players pt. 3
10/3/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

When’s the last time a sequel was better then the original? When you enter into trilogy territory that’s when you know you’ve got a hit!

Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, The Godfather, Back to the Future and The Mighty Ducks are all on the list of greatest movie combos ever. If you’re into 1980’s horror slasher flicks like me, then a trilogy has a greater meaning! Halloween, Friday the 13th and Nightmare on Elm Street.

I’ve always antiquated football with the fall. The fall with horror movies. I Hate Fantasy Football Players deserved a third part thus, making it a trilogy. When discussing horror movie trilogies there are a few rules to discuss.

If you missed the first two here there are! https://www.dfscheatsheet.com/i-hate-fantasy-football-players/nfl/05/

Here is #2! https://www.dfscheatsheet.com/i-still-hate-fantasy-football-players/nfl/05/

 

1. Sex = Death
2. Don’t drink and do drugs
3. Never say “I’ll be right back!”
4. Sequels are always bigger and bloodier
5. Sequel killers are basically superhuman
6. Anyone can die in a sequel

On social media you see everything! On social media anything goes. I look at fantasy football on Twitter and Facebook as being in an actual horror movie! The owners listed below are the same as a masked man carrying a large knife! They will chase you down, cause anxiety and murder your fantasy football joy!

1. Glad it’s a free league guy

I’m no big shot. I truly understand the excitement of drafting and building a team. Certain website allow you to draft at an instant. In turn you get people racking up 20-25+ free leagues and deserting most of them by week 3. Not to be rude but that’s none of my business. What is our business are all the preposterous trade offer screen shots littering social media. I don’t know about you but it tests my patience. Would you send and accept half the offers you receive if your current home league was free?

2. “Thoughts” guy

Literally the worst! From what I’ve seen a lot of fantasy football groups on social media have banned this exact statement! Made this trade, thoughts? Most of these questions don’t include league size, scoring format or current roster. At this point in the article hopefully you’re upset. Just as pissed as I am! Please dear Lord don’t be thoughts guy! It’s lazy and upsets people! Most of the time there is a huge fight in the comment section. People get upset and they answer with a smartass reply. That leads to more smartass comments and before you know it there’s a full blown Royal Rumble going on.

3. Will I win guy?

My worst fear!

If you have to ask probably not. Before we jump to conclusions I do get the idea. Some of us are wound tight. We get nervous. We want others to back us up. In all my years of playing fantasy football I’ve never seen anything good come from this question. In today’s day and age of social media you’ll always wind getting made fun of and/or put down. Trolls right? They are everywhere!

4. Get back in 5 guy

Ghosting 101…

We all know what this is. The blow off move. When another team owner is scared or doesn’t want to hurt your feelings, “I’ll be right baaaaaaack!” No you won’t!

5. Over thinking guy

Start? Sit? Add? Drop?

Hopefully by now you understand I’m not putting anybody down. Heck, I’ve done each and every one of these! Over thinking anything is just a by product of being thorough. Wanting to be absolutely right in every way. Which as you know is impossible! If it seems too good to be true it usually is. If it feels off and not right it usually is. With fantasy sports so prevalent on social media now a days a quick poll should do the trick. Or a quick message to your most trusted friend. Nothing good comes from over thinking. It creates unwanted stress and anxiety. The whole point of this is fun! Connecting with others. Building relationships with others. Make a decision and stick with it! Easier said then done I know but just try it this week! Lets see what happens.

6. Toilet tinkered guy

Where some of my best ideas come!

Some of my best work is done on the toilet! Not bring crass or rude, it’s just the truth! We can tinker with our seasonal lineups and our DFS lines and both are deadly! Everybody has a smart phone. Meaning we have everything at our finger tips at a moments notice! Games, banking apps, news apps, sports apps and our fantasy sports apps. Oh! What better time to check the waiver wire while we have a few moments alone on the toilet right? I set my seasonal lineup Sunday night or Monday morning for the following week. I check back Tuesday to get in my waiver claims. Wednesday morning I shuffle my roster around and leave it be! Sunday morning I check the news and injuries and give it one last look over before lock at 1p EST. My point, if we make our decisions early in the week they come from a place of confidence! A gut reaction that is normally right and spot on! When it comes to DFS enter enter all week then edit right before lock. Tinkering will be the death of your team. Unless that’s the fun?

7. Victory lap guy

This is a huge topic of discussion on social media. For those of you who don’t know let me briefly explain. A victory lap is just a told you so. A parade thrown for yourself after getting a certain projection or ranking correct. For example, “Ahhhh I told you Ke’Shawn Vaughn wasn’t a top-10 dynasty rookie RB!”. Vaughn has been in street clothes so far this season meaning the victory lappers have decided enough time has passed to solidify their stance on him. I’m being objective here! No opinion one way or another. Just shining light on the topic. Most recently victory lappers will now ask ahead of time. For example, “May I take my victory lap on Brandin Cooks now?” which is very thoughtful and we all appreciate you! In some cases the victory lapper will lay out their plans, “If Julian Edleman doesn’t catch 10 passes today I’m going to take my victory lap.” Another nice and thoughtful idea. I’ve also noticed their have been a few rules placed on victory lapping. To me, the most important one, the injury victory lap. Don’t victory lap when a player gets hurt. That’s in poor taste right? Overall I find the victory lap very perplexing.

8. Inappropriate group chat guy

We all know this guy. Most of the time we tell each other, “Oh don’t mind Steve he’s a miserable human being to begin with!” Steve is always sending awful meme’s or sexually explicit photos/videos in you leagues group chat. In certain cases that’s all he’s known for. We even stick up for him in advance of said meme’s and gif’s. “I want to warn you Chris, Steve is a little off and he says weird things sometimes.” It helps soften the blow. If you’re reading this and laughing hysterically saying, “dang that’s funny but we don’t have a guy like Steve in our group chat!” Then you’re Steve! You’re the inappropriate group chat guy! Never change Steve!

9. Neglects an entire position guy

This one is exactly what you think it is! Zero RB guy! Or zero WR guy. Let’s fool around during the draft and try to outsmart everybody else! In the end it never works out well. Let’s say over the years a team was orphaned in your league. New owner comes in and trades most of the talent away. In turn, they have Julio Jones, Davante Adams and Michael Thomas at WR. Pretty sweet right? Until you notice their starting RB’s are Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy. A top heavy team that never really competes due to neglect at one position. Again, it’s none of my business how you run your team. That’s the beauty of this! We’re our own teams general manager! Just bringing awareness.

10. Commish with no plan guy

Full disclosure, I was struggling with the last, “Guy” on this list. Ten is just a nice round number. When have you read a list that ended with nine. After the breaking news Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19 and the New England at Kansas City was delayed a lot of fantasy managers were scrambling for replacements. Even more so after the postponement of Pittsburgh at Tennessee. Throughout the weekend I’ve seen a ton of advice and overall disappointment in leagues commissioners. Rightfully so if you’re now left holding you hat with an incomplete roster. We all knew this 2020 NFL season was going to be unlike any season we’ve experienced before. Certain votes were cast before the draft and some after. Any way you slice it we need contingency plans. Anything! To sit back and do nothing isn’t fair. It’s not right to us and all fantasy managers alike.

Is it over?

Hope you had fun! Is the idea now dead? Like Michael Myers at the end of Halloween? Who knows! You’ll just have to wait and see!

Thank you for reading! Any questions or comments?

Did I miss someone? Who would you add? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time WK4 (Sunday Edition)

Hammer Time
10/4/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the oddsmakers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 2 Betting Recap:

Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

After a huge Week 2, the Gambling Guru faced some regression in Week 3. I hit on 3 of the 5 Thursday Night props—Myles Gaskin easily hit on both of his props and the Dophins trumped the Jaguars (I told you to fade the ’stache!)—before going 10-15 in the Sunday afternoon slate of games. Several factors contributed to the shortcomings, including Diontae Johnson getting knocked out of his matchup with a concussion and Bucaneers head coach Bruce Arians inexplicably sticking with Ronald Jones over Leonard Fournette. But several players fell just short of their props. Miles Sanders missed his total yards prop by a measly 2.5 yards—adding extra justification for my screaming at the television as the Eagles passed and then punted for the tie at the end of the game instead of running the ball to get in better field goal range. Austin Ekeler and Kenyan Drake also narrowly missed their rushing yard props, though the former crushed his passing and total yardage prop. The Bears-Falcons game in particular was brutal as all four of my bets fell short. I was saved from a disastrous day by a huuuge performance by Alvin Kamara in the night cap. Kamara hit both of his props, as well as the first TD scorer bet—his second time this season already (shameless brag: he also propelled me to a comeback victory in fantasy with 44+ points).

Arizona Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake

Week 3 Record: 15-18 (45%)

Let’s see if we can recover here in Week 4, starting with some TNF props…

TNF Player Props and Bets: DEN @ NYJ

· Melvin Gordon over 60.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Noah Fant over 43.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
· Jerry Jeudy over 50.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
· K.J. Hamler over 33.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Melvin Gordon to score the first TD (+500 at DraftKings)*
Just when we thought the Thursday Night games couldn’t get any uglier, the NFL unloads a battle of basement dwellers on us as the talentless New York Jets play host to the hapless Denver Broncos. The Jets, indefinitely hindered by the Adam Gase Effect and plagued with injuries at the skilled positions, offer little in terms of player prop value. The options on the other side are just as unappetizing, as third-string quarterback Brett Rypien will be getting the start for the Broncos. Still, what kind of Gambling Guru would I be if I sat this one out? Unlike these teams, I have heart, so I’ve dug deep for these sleeper picks.

First, the chalk. Through 3 games this season, Melvin Gordon has 42 rushing attempts and 174 yards. That averages out to 58 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Gordon was notably limited last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, getting only 8 touches in the ground game. Poor game script aside, I suspect that’s because head coach Vic Fangio wanted to keep him fresh for tonight’s game since they’ll be playing on a short week. The Jets defense is quite possibly the worst in the league and this is Rypien’s first official start, so all things point to Denver pounding the rock. If Gordon gets a workload closer to the first two games of the season, he should have at least 15 carries. That puts him on track for at least 62 yards so I’m hammering the over there. I’ll also pick him to score the game’s first touchdown, simply because there are no better options.

I’m also going in on Noah Fant’s yardage prop. he’s eclipsed this in each game so far this year, with 81, 57, and 46 yards. The yardage is trending in the wrong direction, but I’m confident he’ll pull through as Rypien’s security blanket. I’ll also take the over on Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler’s receiving yards as yards should be easy to come by against this Jets secondary.

Sunday Spreads and Player Props:
SEA @ MIA:

Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

· Myles Gaskin over 3.5 receptions (-112 at Bet MGM)
· Myles Gaskin over 24.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· DeVante Parker over 4.5 receptions (-105 at DraftKings)
· DeVante Parker over 61.5 receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel)
· Tyler Lockett over 72.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Tyler Lockett over 5.5 receptions (+105 at Bet MGM)
· DK Metcalf over 67.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
Tyler Locket has averaged 8 receptions for over 85 yards per game so far this season and D.K. Metcalf has averaged about 100 yards per game. Look for more of the same against a weak Miami secondary this Sunday. Hammer the over on all three of these mispriced lines. On the flip side, Seattle has been the second worst team against the pass so far. That makes DeVante Parker a solid bet to go over his reception and receiving yards prop. Parker eclipsed both numbers last week against the Jaguars, in spite of a negative game script, and came within 15 yards of the receiving prop in the first two games against the elite corners on the Bills and Patriots. Myles Gaskin, who is averaging 30 yards on 5 receptions per game, will continue to get work on passing downs, as they’ll be playing from behind in this one.

N.O. @ DET:

New Orleans Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith

· Alvin Kamara over 7.5 receptions (+123 at DraftKings)
· Alvin Kamara over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Kenny Golladay over 60.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
No surprises here. My love affair with Alvin Kamara continues as I project him to go over 59.5 receiving yards and total 8 or more receptions. It’s a steep number, but he absolutely crushed it last week in a shootout with the Packers. Michael Thomas has been already been ruled out for a third straight week, so the “Drew Brees Checkdown Show” starring Alvin Kamara will continue. For Detroit, I like Golladay to flash in his second start, especially since both starting corners for the Saints are out. Hammer all three of these props.

CLE @ DAL:

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot

· CeeDee Lamb over 61.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Michael Gallup over 57.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
The Cleveland Browns have been one of the worst teams against slot receivers. That bodes well for stud rookie CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging over 75 yards and no fewer than 59 yards through three games this year. I also like Michael Gallup to go over his receiving yards prop. He’s had fewer receptions than Lamb, but his average yards per reception has been much higher in each game this season at 16.67, 29, and 23. Gallup and Prescott have also come close to hooking up on several other 40+ passes this year—it’s clear that he is the go-to deep target. I found the best line (both in terms of lowest threshold and lowest juice) at DraftKings so shop around. *hammer* *hammer*

ARI @ CAR:

Carolina Panther RB Mike Davis

· Kenyan Drake over 70.5 rushing yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
· ***BEST BET*** Mike Davis over 5.5 receptions (+117 at DraftKings)
· Mike Davis over 39.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
Kenyan Drake has been disappointing so far this season. But this week? We love the Drake. To quote Seinfeld: “How can you not like the Drake?”

We’ve seen him go off in the past—I can attest to that from a painful personal experience in the second half of my Fantasy Championship last year—and this is a great blowup spot. The Carolina Panthers have the worst run defense in the league and have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Drop. The. Hammer.
For the Panthers, I am banking on Mike Davis continuing to be a PPR machine in the absence of Christian McCaffrey. I think he tops his receiving yards prop easily as the Panthers should be playing from behind in this game. Davis had 8 receptions in each of his two starts this year, so I’m shocked that his line is only 5.5 receptions at DraftKings and even more shocked that it’s being offered at plus money. That’s a huge oversight by Vegas. Make them pay. I’m laying down the hammer like Thor.

BUF @ LVR:

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary

· Josh Jacobs over 72.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Darren Waller over 5.5 receptions (+105 at Bet MGM)
· Devin Singletary over 77.5 total yards (-124 at DraftKings)
· Devin Singletary over 58.5 rushing yards (-112 at FanDuel)
Devin Singletary made the most of his 17 touches last week accounting for over 125 of Buffalo’s yards on offense. Zack Moss is questionable to return from his toe injury, after getting limited sessions in practice this week. Look for head coach Sean McDermott to stick with the hot hand. Bill Belichick always schemes a way to control the opponent’s best player, so it was no surprise he targeted Darren Waller in last week’s matchup. Waller will bounce back from his abysmal performance in a big way today. He has to if the Raiders are going to stay in this game. Josh Jacobs will also be a key to a Raiders victory and slowing down a red-hot Josh Allen. I don’t think they will, but I do think they nail these props.

BAL @ WAS

Baltimore Ravens rookie RB J.K. Dobbins

· BAL -12.5 (+110 Odds Boost at FanDuel)
Baltimore’s offense is too unpredictable to find any juicy props here and Washington—well, they are a professional football team… but one without a name or talent. Lamar Jackson has heard the talk and will look to disprove the “haters” with a 2019-esque MVP performance. FanDuel is going to regret this Odds Boost promo. Hammer it.

Parlay Play of the Week:

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson

4-team money line parlay: SEA, NO, LAR, and BAL (+171 at DraftKings)*
There’s not much analysis to offer on this one. The Ravens and Rams should run away in their respective games and, on paper, the Seahawks and Saints should have their way as well. If you want to be ballsy, you can take NO -3 and SEA -5 instead of the money lines or look for an alternate game line for Baltimore and Los Angeles for a higher payout. It all depends on your level of risk aversion.

That’s all for now. Follow me at https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and Check back next week for more best bets and player props.

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 3 is 47-43, hitting on 52% of his bets. Additionally, he is 3-2-1 on first TD scorer calls.

*First TD scorer and Parlay Plays are not counted in overall standings.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

 

NASCAR – The Setup – 100420

The Setup – YellaWood 500
By Tyler Miller
@rickybobby_jr

This weekend, NASCAR heads to Talladega Superspeedway for the YellaWood 500. Talladega is a 2.66-mile-high banked race track which used to be classified as a restrictor plate race track before NASCAR began using different means for slowing the cars down. Talladega features pack racing, plenty of excitement, lead changes, and usually one or two large wrecks that take out multiple cars. Talladega and Daytona are my favorite tracks for DFS contests. I like to play larger than normal entry fees in single entry contests. I do not advise playing cash games for Talladega because the risk is so much higher than the reward. Let’s get started.

Race Distance: 188 laps, Stage 1 ends on lap 60, Stage 2 ends on lap 120.
Lineup Lock 2:00 pm eastern Sunday
Last year’s winner: Ryan Blaney (Started 9th)
Spring Winner: Ryan Blaney (Started 12th)
Last year’s pole sitter: Chase Elliott (Finished 8th)
Spring Pole sitter: Martin Truex Jr. (Finished 23rd)

Prior race winners:
2019 Spring: Chase Elliott (Started 11th)
2018 Fall: Aric Almirola (4th)
2018 Spring: Joey Logano (9th)
2017 Fall: Brad Keselowski (6th)
2017 Spring: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (1st)

What Vegas thinks (Opening lines via BetMGM)
Due to Talladega’s unpredictability, the favorite is at 10-1 with a large group of drivers clumped between 10 and 15-1. If I would bet this, I would go for a longshot and a big payday. Someone like Stenhouse (14-1), Bowman (20-1), or Bowyer (25-1). DiBenedetto at 40-1 seems like a typo, but he is probably the best longshot if you want to lay a $20 down and potentially walk away with an $800 payday from someone who will likely run up front all race long.

Ryan Blaney 10-1
Brad Keselowski 11-1
Denny Hamlin 11-1
Chase Elliott 11-1
Joey Logano 11-1
Aric Almirola 14-1
Kevin Harvick 14-1
Kyle Busch 14-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 14-1
Kurt Busch 16-1
Alex Bowman 20-1
Martin Truex Jr. 20-1

Driver Ratings at Talladega:
1. Ryan Blaney 91.7
2. Joey Logano 91.1
3. Kurt Busch 90.3
4. Chase Elliott 90.3
5. Brad Keselowski 89.5
6. Jimmie Johnson 86.5
7. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 86.2
8. Matt Kenseth 85.3
9. John Hunter Nemechek 84.1
10. Denny Hamlin 83.8
11. Kyle Busch 82.0
12. William Byron 81.5
13. Kevin Harvick 80.8
14. Aric Almirola 80.1
15. Clint Bowyer 79.8

Average Running Position
1. Cole Custer 11.990
2. Chase Elliott 12.015
3. Ryan Blaney 12.465
4. Tyler Reddick 13.476
5. William Byron 13.509
6. Kurt Busch 13.511
7. Joey Logano 13.649
8. Brad Keselowski 14.951
9. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 14.961
10. Christopher Bell 15.435
11. Matt Kenseth 15.477
12. Jimmie Johnson 15.608
13. Daniel Suarez 17.021
14. Kevin Harvick 17.120
15. Denny Hamlin 17.171

Laps Led
1. Matt Kenseth 463 (9.0% of laps run)
2. Joey Logano 352 (8.0)
3. Jimmie Johnson 325 (5.5)
4. Denny Hamlin 320 (5.8)
5. Brad Keselowski 293 (6.7)
6. Kyle Busch 250 (4.4)
7. Kurt Busch 228 (3.9)
8. Kevin Harvick 226 (3.8)
9. Ryan Blaney 153 (6.7)
10. Chase Elliott 128 (7.5)
11. Clint Bowyer 123 (2.2)
12. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 94 (3.5)

Spring Top 10:
1. Ryan Blaney
2. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
3. Aric Almirola
4. Denny Hamlin
5. Erik Jones
6. Chris Buescher
7. Alex Bowman
8. John Hunter Nemechek
9. Kurt Busch
10. Kevin Harvick

2019 Fall Top 10:
1. Ryan Blaney
2. Ryan Newman
3. Denny Hamlin
4. Aric Almirola
5. Michael McDowell
6. Austin Dillon
7. Corey LaJoie
8. Chase Elliott
9. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
10. Ty Dillon

2019 Spring Top 10
1. Chase Elliott
2. Alex Bowman
3. Ryan Preece
4. Joey Logano
5. Daniel Hemric
6. Kurt Busch
7. Ryan Newman
8. Brendan Gaughan
9. Aric Almirola
10. Kyle Busch

My strategy at Talladega has been to avoid Toyota drivers and I think I am going to stick with that. As a manufacturer, Toyota has the fewest cars in the field and we have seen recently where the Fords and Chevys team up and leave the Toyotas in the dust. Talladega is wide enough (wider than Daytona) to allow this to happen and it puts the Toyotas at a disadvantage. The goal at Talladega is to select top end drivers who will run up front, lead laps, stay out of trouble, and be on the lead lap at he end of the race. If all of your drivers (5 on Fan Duel, 6 on DK) are on the lead lap with 5 laps to go, you have a chance to take down a tournament. It should be no surprise that Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott are at the top of my list. These drivers have a history of leading laps and finishing well at Talladega.

Ryan Blaney ($12,000/9,100) I think Ryan Blaney is a lock, particularly on Draft Kings where he is priced down. Blaney has the highest driver rating and is 3rd in average running position. Blaney has won the last two races at Talladega, led laps in 5 of the last 6 races and finished on the lead lap in 5 straight at Talladega.

Joey Logano ($11,600/10,300) I think Logano, Blaney, and Keselowski run up towards the front all race long. This is going to be a race where you can play 2 of the 3 and just hope that you have the guy that leads most of the laps. Logano is second behind Blaney in driver rating and has double digit laps led in 8 of his last 10 races at Talladega.

Chase Elliott ($11,800/10,500) Talladega is all about avoiding a crash for Chase Elliott. We haven’t talked about the playoff picture, but there are a group of drivers, including Elliott, that need to stay out of trouble and finish well at Talladega on Sunday. I think Elliott has less pressure when compared to some of the other playoff drivers because he runs so well at the Charlotte ROVAL (which is next week). In nine career starts at Talladega, Elliott has one win, he has led double digit laps four times, but he has failed to finish on the lead lap four times. I like Elliott, but I certainly like Blaney and Logano more.

I like locking in 2 of the 3 drivers listed above and then get creative with the rest of your lineup. There are a lot of great options in the mid to lower tier. Look for guys who embrace and enjoy what was formerly known as “plate racing” (they don’t use restrictor plates anymore so I refer to this as superspeedway racing). I will list several options here with some thoughts but ultimately you could make an argument for using nearly every driver in the field.

Justin Haley ($5,500/5,400) Justin Haley is driving for Spire motorsports in the number 77 car on Sunday. Haley got a deal together to run this race with sponsorship from Parts Plus and I believe (not 100% sure) that they bought a car from Ganassi to run this race. Even with the sponsorship, I would expect Haley to run in a pack at the back of the field for 90% of the race in order to be there at the end after the final caution. Haley is a solid superspeedway driver with wins at Daytona and Talladega in the Xfinity Series (including yesterday) and a cup series win at Daytona in a rain shortened July race a year ago. Haley is not going to win this race, but a top 20 finish at minimum price from the 35th starting position makes him a good play.

Brendan Gaughan ($5,000/9,500) If you have read any of my stuff in the past at Daytona and Talladega, you know that I’m usually high on Brendan Gaughan. Gaughan is starting 39th, he has a solid track record of racing smart at these tracks and moving forward at the end of the race. Gaughan drivers for Beard Motorsports or some such organization that nobody’s heard of, but he has an ECR engine and an RCR chassis. Draft Kings recognizes the increase scoring potential of Gaughan and significantly priced him up compared to Fan Duel. Either way I really like him in this race on Sunday. Gaughan isn’t going to lead any laps or run up front in either stage, but if he stays out of trouble he can score a lot of points at the end of the race as he’s shown with finishes of 21, 27, 8, 12, 22, and 19 in his past 6 races at Talladega.

Tyler Reddick ($9,600/7,900) I really like Tyler Reddick in this spot at Talladega. Reddick was aggressive in the first Talladega race this year leading 19 laps and finishing 20th. I like him to improve on that Sunday as he is starting from the 30th position.

Matt Kenseth ($6,200,5,900) Matt Kenseth had a solid career at Talladega before retiring in 2018. Kenseth has the 8th best driver rating, 11th in average running position, and he has lead more laps at Talladega that anyone else in the field. Kenseth has the added motivation that comes along with his teammate winning at Las Vegas last week, so I’d look for Kenseth to push towards the front from his 20th place starting position. Kenseth is also way under-priced for this race.

Bubba Wallace ($6,600/7,700) Starting 27th, Bubba Wallace has some upside on Sunday. I would compare Wallace to Stenhouse to this race but with less risk. Wallace has had some solid finishes at superspeedways and to his credit, he has largely stayed out of crashes. I like using Bubba on Sunday.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($11,000/8,800) Starting 26th, Stenhouse is going to be a popular play on Sunday. Stenhouse has a history of being aggressive, leading laps, and running up front at Daytona and Talladega. Stenhouse finished 2nd at Talladega in the spring leading 5 laps. He also led laps in this year’s Daytona 500 before having issues late and he crashed at Daytona a month ago. I’m about 50/50 on Stenhouse. I think it’s a solid play and I think he will be popular, but I personally will not play him on Sunday.

William Byron ($8,800/8,900) William Byron has turned into a solid superspeedway racer as we saw when he won at Daytona a month ago. In five career starts at Talladega, Byron’s best finish of 11th came earlier this year but his other four finishes are lackluster at best (33, 21, 20, 29). I think there is some upside here as Byron starts the race 21st.

These are my thoughts on Talladega. Remember, anything can happen at Talladega and one crash could literally wipe out every driver I listed above. The beauty of this race is that most of the big DFS players that we compete against in the summer are focused on football. Last season we had a really good run during the NASCAR playoffs and I’m convinced that a big reason why was because the guys we play against are more focus on NFL than NASCAR during this time of the year. Good luck to all our subscribers on Sunday!

Bottom of the Barrel WK4 (NFL DFS)

Bottom of the Barrel
9/28/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

I’ve long said what we do as fantasy sports writers is fleeting and quite fickle. Things change so fast day to day we don’t have long to bask in our glory. It’s a good pace if we fail miserably.

Regardless, we need to find common ground. Somewhere between, “I’m good at what I do.” or along the lines of, “Just following the numbers.”

We’re entering week 4 of the NFL season and little has taken shape. You read that right! The injuries have been piling up. With that comes opportunity! It’s up to us to be aware of the depth on each team and specifically on a positional basis!

Let’s take a look at week 4 and where we can take advantage of those opportunities!

QUARTERBACK

I have a new idea! A new feature if you will. Give out the most expensive player at each position as we get to it. Putting into perspective the B&B prices!

Lamar Jackson BAL @ WSH (21st)(FD-$9,600)(DK-$8,100)

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at QB!

Jared Goff LAR v NYG (11th)(FD-$7,500)(DK-$6,700)

Los Angeles Rams QB Jared Goff

Goff and the Rams fell behind big to Buffalo then came alive. That was last week and this is now week 4. The Giants got absolutely hammered by San Francisco Sunday. Nick Mullens threw for 343 yards while their RB’s went nuts. What do you think Goff can do?

Matthew Stafford DET v NO (28th)(FD-$7,200)(DK-$5,900)

Detroit QB Matthew Stafford

We’re three weeks in and Stafford hasn’t looked right to me. I can’t put my finger on. Getting sacked and throwing awful interceptions. Regardless, Matt had a great showing Sunday in Arizona. 22 completions and 8.7 yards per attempt. With Kenny G back expect the Stat-pad-ford of old moving forward! New Orleans comes to town week 4 and I’m fully expecting 250+ passing yards and 2 TD passes as his floor in this one!

Ryan Fitzpatrick MIA v SEA (31st)(FD-$7,100)(DK-$5,400)

Miami Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

Miami’s passing attack is coming together! Right? I mean Fitz has gone over 24 fantasy points his last two games. Ryan is averaging 8 yards per attempt and 226 yards a game. We all know the wheels are going to come off at a certain point but I’m riding it until they do! Sunday MIA is home vs. an awesomely talented offensive SEA team. Their defense however not so much. The Seahawks are giving up, on average, 28 points a game.

Baker Mayfield CLE @ DAL (30th)(FD-$7,000)(DK-$5,800)

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield

This one here isn’t so much about Baker but the Cowboys defense. In the first three week of the season they’ve given up 97 points! Ninety seven! Do the math that’s 32+ points a game! If my O/U math is correct this one sits at 55.5. Highest of the day, at this point. 31-28 final here I’m going to guess. Roster Baker in week 4! Off the record, I actually like all of Bakers commercials! Have you seen the new book club one? Classic Baker!

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliot DAL v CLE (29th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$8,300)

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at RB!

Carlos Hyde SEA @ MIA (15th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,300)

Seattle Seahawks RB Carlos Hyde

This one is super simple. Chris Carson got gator rolled. Was super nasty and quite dirty if you ask me. Thankfully, Carson will be fine. Knee sprain out 1-2 weeks. In the meantime this Seattle offense is averaging 37 points a game. I’d want any part of it I could get!

Alexander Mattison MIN @ HOU (28th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,000)

Minnesota Vikings RB Alexander Mattison

Dalvin Cook is the play here but that’s not Bottom of the Barrel way! Cook has scored 20.8 fantasy points a game so far. Houston is allowing the 5th most fantasy points (27.4) a game to the opposing teams backfield! Last I checked Mattison is part of the MIN backfield! Look for the Vikes to open up their playbook Sunday. 0-4 would be an absolute disaster!

Myles Gaskin MIA v SEA (5th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$5,000)

Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

Scroll up to the Ryan Fitzpatrick section. Ok good you’re back! Same principles apply! Myles carried the ball 22 times Sunday and caught 5 passes! If that’s the case again in week 4 I’m expecting some big numbers out of Gaskin! He also saw a 74.5% snap share. I’m telling you now get in now on the ground floor! Before his price goes way up!

Chase Edmonds ARZ @ CAR (31st)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,200)

Arizona Cardinals RB Chase Edmunds

This is strictly a gut call. Drake is the RB1 and seeing all the work. Chase gets a few looks a game and I firmly believe he explodes for one in Carolina Sunday. Full disclosure, his price on FD is too steep for me. DK play only.

Travis Homer SEA @ MIA (16th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,000)

Seattle Seahawks RB Travis Homer

How are the targets and touches going to pan out in the Seattle backfield? Maybe a Homer/Hyde combo? Whatever the case may be I want all the SEA offense I can get right now! Homer has a legit shot of seeing RB1 duties Sunday with Carson out.

Latavius Murray NO @ DET (24th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,900)

New Orleans Saints RB Latavius Murray

What’s funny is the fact I thought Arizona was going to hammer the Lions Sunday. I think the Saints are going to wail on Detroit this Sunday! Alvin has looked like the best player in football. So much so what’s the use in playing Murray? Latavius has seen double digit touches in back to back weeks now. Plenty of room for him Sunday in Detroit!

J.J. Taylor NE @ KC (18th)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$4,000)

New England Patriots RB J.J. Taylor

Pay close attention to Damien Harris and his availability this coming Sunday. Same with James White. If both men are still out I’d take a flyer on JJ in a massive GPP. Rex Burkhead scored three times Sunday! Why can’t JJ? That’s normally how this team rolls!

WIDE-RECEIVER

Michael Thomas NO @ DET (24th)(FD-$8,800)(DK-$7,600)

New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at WR!

CeeDee Lamb DAL v CLE (24th)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$5,400)

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb

Lamb has looked awesome! Catching 16 of his 21 targets to start the season for 230 yards and a TD. Lamb will go face to face with a CLE defense that’s given up 5 TD’s to opposing WR’s. Lamb finds the end zone this week! Book it!

Justin Jefferson MIN @ HOU (9th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$5,200)

Minnesota Vikings rookie WR Justin Jefferson

Why hello there Mr. Jefferson! What a coming out party! Have you noticed its taken a few weeks for these blue chip rookies to get going? No looking back now! Justin will be in ALL my lines until his price is raised!

Tre’Quan Smith NO @ DET (24th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$5,000)

New Orleans Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith

Smith hasn’t hit that 75yd homerun of a TD yet this season! The targets are there! Alvin Kamara is as well. Don’t fret don’t frown Sunday in Detroit is Tre’Quan’s time!

James Washington PIT @ TEN (19th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,800)

Pittsburgh Steelers WR James Washington

Did you know James led the team in targets and receptions Sunday? Juju is the big dog on this team in terms of receiving BUT if Diontae can’t play due to a concussion then watch out for Washington.

Adam Humphries TEN v PIT (25th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$4,000)

Tennessee Titans WR Adam Humphries

Adam has taken full advantage of a AJ Brown-less Titans team. He’s also their full time slot guy now. At these bottom of the barrel prices sing me up!

Gabriel Davis BUF @ OAK (3rd)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$3,200)

Buffalo Bills rookie WR Gabriel Davis

This new Buffalo Bills passing game is making a star out of everyone! Again, pay close attention to John Brown and his status Sunday. If he’s out I’m firing up Davis in any and all lineups! He’s not a flash in the pan folks, this kid is here to stay!

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce KC v NE (5th)(FD-$7,600)(DK-$6,800)

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at TE!

Dalton Schultz DAL v CLE (28th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,300)

Dallas Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz

Dalton is seeing a ton of volume, target wise. I know the excitement around him heading into week 3 was very high. Be patient and go back to the well this weekend. Cleveland has surrendered 22 catches and 3 total TD’s to the TE position already this season.

Logan Thomas WSH v BAL (30th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$3,500)

Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas

His volume alone makes him a play. Add in his cheap pricing across the platform and bam you have your DFS TE for week 4!

Dawson Knox BUF @ OAK (11th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$3,500)

Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox

Something something Josh Allen something something MVP.

Dan Arnold ARZ @ CAR (4th)(FD-$4,300)(DK-$2,700)

DFS is all a matter of perspective and opportunity. With Maxx Williams on IR, set to miss 3 weeks, that makes Dan Arizona’s TE1. This offense starts and ends with Hopkins and Drake but at these prices who’s to say Arnold can’t be productive!

Gerald Everett LAR v NYG (6th)(FD-$4,200)(DK-$2,500)

Los Angeles Rams TE Gerald Everett

Nothing special to say here. Only the fact the Giants are in town after taking a drubbing at the hands of San Francisco. Does Everett get loose for a TD?

Adam Trautman NO @ DET (12th)(FD-$4,000)(DK-$2,500)

New Orleans Saints rookie TE Adam Trautman

Adam might be my favorite cheapy TE play of the weekend! As I’ve said before this DFS game is all about opportunity! If Cook can’t play then I’m locking Adam in all of my lines!

Here are two of my sample lines I’m going to use for week 4! Keep in mind these lines are for entertainment purposes! Please play responsible!

Fanduel 10/04 1p MAIN

Also look for updated lines closer to the start of the season! This Thursday 10/1 and Sunday morning 10/4!

Draftkings 10/04 1p MAIN

Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time wk3 (Sunday Edition)

Hammer Time
9/27/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the odds makers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 2 Betting Recap:
Wow. What a huge week for the Gambling Guru (and you, if you’ve been following my best bets and player props). First, the Nick Chubb to score the 1st TD prop (+400 at DraftKings and +650 on FanDuel) hit on Thursday night. That was a nice payout, especially if you did the max $20 for the DraftKings promo or took advantage of the higher odds on FanDuel. The Chubb over 71.5 rushing yards also smashed. The Joe Burrow over 23.5 rushing yards narrowly missed—at one point in the game he actually had it before taking a loss on a subsequent play—and the Same Game Parlay missed one leg because the total points went over. That provided a profitable 2-3 start to the weekend.

On Sunday, my best bets were split down the middle, but injuries to Saquon Barkley, Parris Campbell were partly to blame. Green Bay and San Francisco easily covered, while Kansas City avoided an upset and Tennessee pushed in the teaser. But we also learned just how bad Minnesota and Philadelphia are this year; the Vikings and Eagles are officially on the list of teams I can’t trust. Miami got a backdoor cover against Buffalo that I’m going to chalk up to a combination of Ryan Fitz“magic” and the game delay caused by the wild weather. However you slice it, it’s a lackluster 11-12 performance in the main slate.

The Monday night game was the big winner, however, as almost all of my player props hit. Alvin Kamara scored the first touchdown (+550 at DraftKings) then scored a second time (+600 at FanDuel). If you bet both props and Kamara to score at any time (a mis-priced -105 at FanDuel), you had a big day. Kamara also crushed his over 4.5 receptions, 37.5 receiving yards, and 90.5 total yards props. Likewise, Josh Jacobs hit the over on 2.5 receptions, 68.5 rushing yards, and 85.5 total yards. He failed to find the end zone and narrowly missed his over 17.5 receiving yards line with 17 yards, which killed 3 props. Still, that’s a dominant 9-3 finish to the Week 2.

Week 2 Record: 22-18 (55%)

Let’s see if we can keep it going for Week 3, starting with some TNF props…

TNF Player Props and Bets: MIA @ JAX
· Myles Gaskin over 16.5 receiving yards (-122 at FanDuel)
· Myles Gaskin over 2.5 receptions (-148 at DraftKings)
· Mike Gesicki over 51.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Over 48.5 total points (-110 at DraftKings)
· MIA +3 (-110 at DraftKings)
Minshew Mania may be in full effect, but Jacksonville’s defense is still a bottom feeder. So far this season, running backs have gashed the Jaguars when catching balls out of the backfield. Myles Gaskin has been impressive thus far as the surprise starter in Miami, so I expect that to continue tonight. Sure, there’s always a slim chance that receiving back specialist Matt Brieda steals the show, I’m confident coach Brian Flores will ride the hot hand. I think Gaskin goes over 2 receptions and smashes the receiving yards line (I’d even bet it up to 20 yards if the line continues to move). I also love Mike Gesicki to hit on his 49.5 receiving yards prop. Through two games, the Dolphins young tight end has been targeted 16 times, logging 160 yards on 11 receptions. DeVante Parker was removed from the injury report Wednesday, but playing on a short week after fighting through a hamstring injury only boosts the odds for Gesicki to be the focal point of this passing attack led by Fitz“magic”. I anticipate a high-scoring, messy affair. I’ll take the points with the Dolphins simply because I believe in the coaching staff. Fear the beard, fade the ’stache, and hammer these bets.

Sunday Spreads and Player Props:

Cincinnati Bengal’s RB Joe Mixon

CIN @ PHI:
· ***BEST BET*** Miles Sanders over 109.5 total yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· DeSean Jackson over 55.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Joe Mixon under 65.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· PHI -4.5 (+105 at FanDuel)
To quote the great Marshawn Lynch, “you know why I’m here.” I’m taking my Birds to cover 4.5 points and defeat the Bengal’s for the first time in 20 years (yes, seriously). I’ve been wrong on a lot of my Eagles picks this year, but that can only mean I’m due for a hot streak. Right? There is no such thing as a must-win in Week 3 but if Philadelphia can’t come away with a win against Cincinnati, the season is lost. Luckily, when Wentz’s back is against the wall, he responds. And right now, not only is his back pressed up against the wall, but a large Philadelphian mob is waiting on the other side with pitchforks and torches. In terms of player props, I’m sticking with Miles Sanders this week and fading the lead back on the other side. The offensive and defensive lines for the Bengal’s are among the worst in the league. That bodes well for Sanders, who I think easily surpasses the total yards mark, and poorly for Joe Mixon, who I think will run the rock less than 15 times. I’ll fade the DeSean Jackson touchdown prop this week (fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice… you’re off the best bets), but I will take the over on his yardage prop since Jalen Reagor is out.

Las Vegas Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

LV @ NE:
· Josh Jacobs over 2.5 receptions (-110 at Bet MGM)
· Josh Jacobs over 15.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
· NE -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
Bill Belichick always tries to take away the opponent’s best weapon. You could argue that Josh Jacobs is said player, but recent bias would make a strong case for Darren Waller. Either way, I like Jacobs as a reliable check down option. He’s embraced the extra work in the passing game and should get 3 catches easily and just over 5 yards per reception is a reasonable ask. I also think the Patriots will come prepared after the heartbreak in Seattle last week. Meanwhile, the Raiders are primed for a letdown after their upset win in their stadium’s inaugural game.

Atlanta Falcons WR Calvin Ridley

CHI @ ATL:
· David Montgomery over 14.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· David Montgomery over 52.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Calvin Ridley to score (-112 at DraftKings)
· Atlanta -3 (-104 at DraftKings)
Fact: The Atlanta Falcons have had the worst secondary this season. This should be a get-right game for Mitch Trubisky, which will buy him at least one more week before he’s supplanted by Nick Foles, and Allen Robinson, who has been dragging down fantasy teams this season. That being said, the lines are rather chalky. I see more value on the lines for David Montgomery, who has been Chicago’s lone bright spot thus far. On the other side, I have Ridley scoring yet another touchdown this week (I just can’t quit him) but am not touching the inflated line Vegas has posted. The Bears are undefeated, but their victories came against the lowly Lions and the Barkley-less Giants. “Matty Ice” may be too hot to handle.

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary

LAR @ BUF:
· Devin Singletary over 60.5 rushing yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
The Rams-Bills game is one of several great match-ups in Week 3. I’m leaning towards Buffalo, but not enough to make a call here. My favorite prop here is Devin Singletary to go over the rushing yards. Zack Moss will not play so Singletary will have the backfield all to himself. Well, unless T.J. Yeldon gets some carries. He won’t. Hammer the over.

Pittsburgh Steelers WR Diontae Johnson

HOU @ PIT:
· Diontae Johnson over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
This one is another tough matchup. It’s hard to imagine Houston starting the season 0-3, but no one would fault them given their brutal opening schedule. Maybe a loss would put Bill O’Brian on the hot seat (probably not, but Texans fans can dream). The under on the rushing props for James Connor and David Johnson are enticing, but I am avoiding the unpredictable nightmare. Nothing else really stands out, except rising star Diontae Johnson. JuJu Smith-Schuster should draw the Texans top corner, which could mean Johnson gets loose. I’ll take the over 61.5 receiving yards while I still can.

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry

TEN @ MIN:
· Jonnu Smith over 41.5 receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel)
· TEN -2.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
I’ve already written off Minnesota this season. The defense is a far cry from what it was just a few seasons ago. The secondary in particular is atrocious, which is great news for Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith. I prefer the latter—partly because the loss of Anthony Barr should help up the middle of the field for Smith and partly because I find it hard to trust Corey Davis to be consistent. Even if Tannehill throws for just 150 yards, Smith should smash this line. I’m also looking for the Titans to smash the Vikings and cover the 3. *hammering sounds*

Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

CAR @ LAC:
· ***BEST BET*** Austin Ekeler over 89.5 total yards (-109 at DraftKings)
· Austin Ekeler over 60.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Austin Ekeler over 26.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Another best bet? That’s right! I’m all in on Austin Ekeler this week. The Panthers had the worst run defense last year (which probably prompted them to go entirely defensive in the draft) and not much has changed. Joshua Kelley will eat into his carries and may vulture a touchdown, but there will be plenty of yards to go around. Give me the over on Ekeler’s rushing yards. Give me the over on Ekeler’s receiving yards. Give me the over on Ekeler’s total yards. Hammer, hammer, hammer!

Colts rookie RB Jonathan Taylor

NYJ @ IND:
· ***BEST BET*** Jonathan Taylor over 77.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
Surprise! A third best bet! The Jets could barely be called a professional football team when the season started, let alone now when they are crippled at the skilled positions. Who is Sam Darnold going to throw to? Can the ghost of Frank Gore do anything on the ground? The Colts will take a commanding lead and then it’s J.T. time. He may even double this line.

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson

DAL @ SEA:
· Chris Carson over 20.5 receiving yards (+106 at FanDuel)
There are a lot of juicy options in this game, especially given how Seattle’s secondary has played through two weeks. Unfortunately, Vegas has put up some chalky lines for Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and rookie CeeDee Lamb. I do like D.K. Metcalf now that the Seahawks are finally letting Russ cook, but my favorite bet here is on Chris Carson. He doesn’t scream “pass-catcher” but the bruising running back has put up huge numbers as a receiver so far this year. Vegas is asleep behind the wheel here with this line of 20.5 yards. Hammer the over.

Arizona RB Kenyan Drake

DET @ ARI:
· Kenyan Drake over 77.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
I see Arizona running away with this one. Literally. It’s a high number, but Kenyan Drake is due for a big game and this may just be it. I love “the Drake” this week.

TB @ DEN:
· Noah Fant over 3.5 receptions (-139 at Bet MGM)
· Leonard Fournette over 51.5 rushing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
· TB -6 (-110 at DraftKings)
The Denver Broncos have been decimated by injuries. Drew Lock and Courtland Sutton are out, and rookie Jerry Jeudy is a game-time decision. Hammer that 3.5 receptions. Tampa Bay has a stiff run defense, so I think Melvin Gordon will not be able to carry the load. That just leaves just Noah Fant as the safety blanket for backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Leonard Fournette, on the other hand, showed he could carry the load last week after Ronald Jones was benched following a fumble. Even if Lenny doesn’t get the start this week, he’ll take over at some point. He’ll crush this number as the Buccaneers sit on the ball and run out the clock. Hammer it.

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara

SNF Player Props and Bets: GB @ NO
· Alvin Kamara over 5.5 receptions (-139 at Bet MGM)
· Alvin Kamara to score (-167 at DraftKings)
· NO money line (-175 at DraftKings)
Can we postpone this game until both Michael Thomas and Davante Adams are healthy? Even without these stars, the game should be a fun one. Without knowing the status of Adams, it’s hard to pick a prop confidently for Green Bay. On the New Orleans side of things, I’ll stick with my new favorite running back (he won me quite a bit of money and has been clutch in fantasy), Alvin Kamara. He’s been the focal point of this offense in the absence of Michael Thomas. I like him over the receptions and think he’ll reach the endzone yet again. This game would be a pick ’em on a neutral site so it will be close. I’m leaning Saints if Adams sits, but that may just be because I don’t have any Packers on my fantasy teams.

 

MNF Player Props and Bets: KC @ BAL:
· Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score (+105 at Bet MGM)
· KC money line (+148 at FanDuel)
I can’t remember the last time we had such a big Monday Night Football match-up. I’m hesitant to fade this game entirely and just enjoy the fireworks, but I’ll make a couple of picks for my fellow gambling degenerates. I understand why Baltimore is a home favorite and that they match up well here, but I can’t pass up on the opportunity to bet the money line on Super Bowl LIV MVP and future Hall of Fame Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. I also love the mis-priced odds for Clyde Edwards-Helaire to score at Bet MGM (another teachable moment—always shop around! This line was almost -200 at FanDuel and DraftKings).

Parlay Play of the Week:
· IND/TB/SEA all to win (+185 Odds Boost at DraftKings)

That’s all for now. Follow me at https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and Check back next week for more best bets and player props.

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 3 is 32-25, hitting on 56% of his bets.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Or on Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390