April 1st, 2019
There are nine games on the MLB Main Slate tonight. The first thing to take into consideration is that there are a lot of teams who are throwing their 5th starter tonight. With that said, some of the teams on this slate, have a 5th starter that won the job late in spring training. Teams fill the 5th starter traditionally with a guy who can eat some innings, a rookie they may be high on, or an absolute GAS CAN!! Lets dive into this.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have started the year on absolute FIRE!!! The Giants come into town tonight having lost three of four to the Padres. The Giants will Start Drew Pomeranz. From a Bullpen standpoint, The Giants have a very solid pen, 12 Innings Pitched in four games played and have struck out 13. Reyes Moronta, Mark Melancon, Will Smith and Sam Dyson look to be very solid. HOWEVER DREW POMERANZ is on the bump. The dodgers have an implied total of 4.5 largely because of the Giants Bullpen. In 26 games last year Pomeranz started 11 games, pitching only 74.0 innings and giving up 87 hits. Overall he was 2-6 with a 6.08 ERA and surrendered 12 HR’s. Lefties hit .281 with a .705 OPS, while RH hitters (Such as Turner, Barnes, Pollock and Kike) hit .301 with a .947 OPS.
2. Toronto Blue Jays
Look, Toronto was in a good spot against the Detroit Tigers in their opening series and didn’t exactly light up the score board. The Blue Jays split with the Tigers (2-2) and were Shut out on Opening Day. They scored 12 runs in four games. The Blue Jays currently have the second highest implied total at 5.2 and I can see them maybe being a little under-owned tonight given the recent disappointments. Tonight, They face a guy who didn’t pitch well, AT ALL, last year in David Hess. Last year in 21 games he started 19 times going 3-10 with a 4.88 ERA a .262 batting average against and surrendered 22 home runs in 103.1 IP. The Lefties get an edge in long balls as Hess gave up 15 Bombs to Lefties and seven to righties. Brandon Drury is really cheap hitting in the two hole, and Randal Girchuk (3-8 vs. Hess, 3 doubles) is only $2900 hitting in the cleanup spot. McKinney, Tellez, Smoak and Hernandez are all in play here as well.
1. Houston Astros
This should be a pretty chalky stalk tonight. Drew Smyly last pitched in the Majors in 2016 and he’s on the bump tonight vs. the Astros in hitter friendly Arlington. Load up Houston. In 2016 Smyly was 7-12 with a 4.88 ERA. As I mentioned on the “On Deck” Video, Tampa Bay was a very competitive team last year and many think they will compete hard again this season. I mention that due to Houston loosing three of four to Tampa Bay in their Opening series. Tonight they’re in Arlington, can you say GET RIGHT SPOT. I love Springer, Bregman, Altuve, Correa, Gurriel, Brantley. Houston should put up a very crooked number tonight. Michael Brantley has started the season, with his new blue 5-13 and 5-16 in his career against Smyly.