Slate Summary:

We have a couple decent pitching options and lots of suspect ones. There are lots of exploitable match-ups in this ten game slate and to top it off, we have the AL East juggernauts with 5+ run totals. Look for the Cardinals, A’s, and Twins to put up some runs as well. Vegas seems to have lower implied totals for numerous teams that I have a difficult time agreeing with (namely, Seattle 3.34 against McCullers). Maybe this can create a few lesser-owned sluggers for you to exploit. Let’s check out the picks.

P:

Jose Quintana ($8,500)
Quintana has a SIERA lower than his current ERA. He is pitching against the lowly Phillies. This offense is out of whack right now. Only two hitters have an OPS over .750 in the last seven games (Alfaro, Williams). Philly is a bottom ten offense against lefties and strikes out at a high rate. Quintana may not be the safest pitcher, but his upside is mighty appealing.

Jack Flaherty ($7,800)
The Cardinals come in as heavy favorites against the Marlins, always good for getting a possible six extra points from your starter. The Marlins strike out at a 24% rate and Flaherty has flashed k ability. Looking at Miami’s lineup completely asserts my thinking of playing Flaherty. He has fared exceptionally against righties and has limited lefties to a .317 xwOBA. The only hitter that worries me is Justin Bour, but he has had a power outage as of late.

Alternative Picks:

Aaron Nola, Shohei Ohtani, Eduardo Rodriguez

1B:

Joey Votto ($3,900)
Votto is up against a struggling Jon Gray who has explained that his fastball is off. Barring some miraculous change, Votto could take advantage of the pitch which hitters have a .394 wOBA against. Votto sees fastballs well, and with his plate discipline, he should wait for a good pitch to hit. Gray has predictably done worse against lefties, and it’s only a matter of time until Votto gets his power stroke back.

Evan Gattis ($2,400)
A 3.76 FIP this year shows that Wade Leblanc is due for some regression. Gattis, though struggling with average, has four home runs in his last fourteen games along with a .864 OPS. Gattis’s history against Leblanc is what’s more appetizing. In a small sample size, he’s four for seven (.571) with two home runs. He’s always risky, but he’s also a cheap GPP play who will be largely unowned.

Alternative Picks:

Matt Olson, Greg Bird, Jose Martinez

2B:

Brian Dozier ($4,100) 
Dozier is the second baseman to look for tonight. Hector Santiago has an ERA over five and a WHIP of 1.64. He’s allowing a .388 xwOBA against righties this year. Dozier has somehow struggled against lefties this year but I would trust that his stats return to the norm throughout the season. The last two years he’s had an OPS over .950 against lefties. A Twins stack may be a good idea tonight.

Ian Kinsler ($2,900)
This was a toss-up between Kinsler and Nunez, but Nunez has struggled against lefties. I still find him to be a good play against the Tigers and their below-average pen.  Kinsler has finally started coming alive for the last several games. He actually has been quite unlucky, evident by his BABIP which is much lower than his norm, even from last year. Ian Kennedy, that is all I have to say. Kinsler owns him and he is mightily struggling. The Royals bullpen isn’t much better than he is. If Kinsler remains hitting leadoff, he could have ample opportunities to get points for your team.

Alternative Picks:

Jose Altuve, Eduardo Nunez, Jedd Gyorko

3B:

Eduardo Escobar ($3,300)
Sure Sano has more power potential, but Escobar has been raking with four home runs in seven games and an OPS near 1.5. Remember how I mentioned that Hector Santiago is bad? You want exposure against him tonight. He is a sinkerballer allowing a .375 wOBA against the pitch. Sano has a better track record against the pitch, but I’m going to rely on recent stats and trends. Escobar is cheaper and has been seeing the ball better.

Matt Chapman ($2,900)
Do I want to pick on Bartolo Colon? Of course not, but I will do what I need to win. Bart has had a pretty decent season so far, probably because of his low walk rate. The wheels are starting to fall apart, though. His WHIP is at 1.60 in his last two starts and that has partially caused his ERA to be over eight in that span. Chapman has been streaky, but he’s seen Colon well, a three for five (.600) with one home run. Colon’s most reliant pitch, the sinker, is arguably hit best by Chapman among all the A’s hitters. He has a .419 wOBA and .293 ISO.

Alternative Picks:

Miguel Sano, Justin Turner, Luis Valbuena

SS:

Xander Bogaerts ($4,200)
Let me start by warning you that Bogaers has yet to hit a home run against a lefty. Why should you pick him? Well, he hit a home run yesterday, and unless Blaine Hardy somehow dazzles, much of Boston’s hitting will be against the top ten worst bullpen. Bogaerts has been hitting well (1.0 OPS in the last seven) and is right ahead of the home run leader, JD Martinez. He’s going to get pitches to hit.

Yairo Munoz ($2,800)
Munoz seems to be under the radar. He’s hit admirably and is up against Wei-Yin Chen today. Chen has given up a .341 xwOBA to righties this year, and Munoz’s two home runs so far have come against lefties (in fourteen at bats!). Munoz could be a sneaky pick and provide double-digit points in a game where the Cardinals are projected to score about five runs.

Alternative Picks:

Carlos Correa, Chris Taylor, Scott Kingery

OF:

J.D. Martinez ($4,700)
Find a way to get him in your lineup. He is obliterating any ball coming his way. The ball likely coming to him tonight, a ~90 MPH fastball, has provided him with video game numbers. A .692 ISO with a 90% contact rate. He will be widely owned, but this is a night I don’t want to play without him.

Teoscar Hernandez ($3,400)
Hernandez really came out of nowhere and has given the Blue Jays a nice offensive boost stemming from last year. Sonny Gray comes into this game allowing a .368 xwOBA against righties and has given up a lot of contact lately. Hernandez has been on a roll with a 1.1 OPS in his last seven games. He has gone two for five (.400) with two home runs against Gray. Brett Gardner is another choice for $100 less.

Carlos Gonzalez (2,700)
I’m going right back to him today. You see his home run yesterday? He’s playing with some swag right now. Slated to hit fourth again today, he will be facing Sal Romano who is allowing a .336 average and .408 xwOBA against lefties. He has an ERA above seven in his last six starts. Gonzalez is too cheap to not consider.

Alternative Picks:

Charlie Blackmon, Brett Gardner, Harrison Bader

 

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