About Last Night…
Biased Giants fan view: Dan Strailey is a baseball villain. Besides that, Verlander was unlucky not picking up the win, but he still pitched very well. Clevinger and German ended up being the best pitchers, and there were a couple surprise performances from otherwise bad pitchers. Flowers was one of the disappointments, as he was walked twice while the Braves put up eleven runs. Guyer seemed to be a popular, but efficient play. Arenado outhit Story, but I have no qualms with my decision here.
Another exciting night of potential rain delays! Watch out for the games in Pittsburgh, New York, and Washington. All games have a eight run implied total or higher. Prices for the Mets have increased, and we have a pick ’em between them and the Rockies. The Nats have an implied total of 5.31, over a run difference from their runs/game. Charlie Morton hasn’t seemed on like he was earlier in the season, yet the Rays have a total of 2.75.
David Price ($8,400)
I think Price has a better chance of reaching 4-5x value than the two more expensive pitchers. He’s reached at least forty points in five of his last six starts. The Twins have hit the least amount of home runs against lefties this year. He’s always pitched slightly better away from Fenway Park.
Austin Bibens-Dirkx ($6,200)
Do I love this play? No, not really. In fact, if he were playing any other team I would say forget it. But he faces the Royals tonight. How bad are the Royals? They have lost eight straight, have a 10-28 record at home, and most sadly, they have scored thirty-six runs in June (it is the 20th). They are hitting .186 this month. This is simply not a good team. ABD has a tiny walk rate and a lower FIP than his ERA. He’s been an extreme ground ball pitcher so far in his limited opportunities at the major league level. Despite a 4.85 run total, ABD could be a decent pitcher in GPPs.
Gio Gonzalez, Lance Lynn
Dominic Smith ($3,000)
First base isn’t looking good today, so why not just look to Coors Field? Smith has been a talked-about prospect who’s seeing some action at the major league level this year. He’s currently slotted to hit fifth. He has had some great years in the minors. He’s two years removed from a 90+ RBI season in AA. He’s still trying to figure things out at this level, but he gets major/minor league pitcher Chad Bettis who owns a .344 xwOBA against lefties and a low strikeout percentage, which bodes well for Smith.
Wilson Ramos ($2,700)
This is a bit of a contrarian play, but Ramos has been hitting well and still comes with a low price tag. Morton has been really good, but not invincible. He’s given up three or more earned runs in three of his last four starts. He has struck out righties much less than lefties this year. Ramos has a five for thirteen (.385) average against him. If you want to look elsewhere, Mike Zunino looks good.
Eric Thames, Mike Zunino
Asdrubal Cabrera ($4,000)
He has two hits in three straight games. Chad Bettis has a 90 MPH fastball which Cabrera likes. He’s hitting a .352 wOBA against the pitch. His ISO is at an all time high so far this year. Deploy him if you can. Daniel Murphy is a nice pivot.
Daniel Murphy ($3,600)
This guy is no cheap egg. He’s hitting very poorly to start his season. He gets to warm up with some practice swings against Trashner tonight. He hits six for twelve (.500) against The Trash and is hitting behind Bryce Harper in the five spot. Despite rain warnings, it is still supposed to be warm and Trashner allowes a 45.2% fly ball rate to lefties. He has hit sinkers consistently, a 92% contact rate against the pitch, Trashner’s favorite. There’s a lot of people who will be off him because of his struggles.
Gleyber Torres, Dee Gordon
Todd Frazier ($3,900)
Third base may be the deepest position tonight. I’m just going to stay at Coors though. Frazier has been slumpy, but Bettis is definitely a slump buster. He’s allowing a .364 wOBA this year to righties. The poor guy just really struggles at home. If you want to look away from Coors, you have Rendon, Devers, and Beltre in decent spots.
David Freese ($2,100)
With the platoon advantage, Freese appears to take over for Moran tonight, apparently taking his spot in the order with. Brent Suter has been pitching quite well, but he has given up more home runs in less innings this year than last. In fact, right-handed bats hit a .202 ISO collectively against him. Freese has been great against lefties the last few years. Let’s see if he can take advantage of a 86 MPH fastball.
Anthony Rendon, Rafael Devers
Didi Gregorious ($4,000)
Gregorious has gotten a hit in five straight and looks for another tonight against Felix Hernandez. Poor Squire Felix is getting pounded on the road this year with a 7.71 ERA. Lefties have hit him particularly hard. Seven of twelve home runs have come against lefties in less at-bats. A .350 wOBA and .248 ISO only makes it evident that Gregorious should have a good game at the plate. He has favorable splits tonight and owns a 1.0 OPS in the last seven games.
Trea Turner ($3,900)
Surprised I didn’t go to Coors? Me too haha. Turner went four for four with a home run last night, and he’ll try for a similar effort against Mr. Trash. In a large sample size, Turner has hit a .384 wOBA against sinkers. He does have a large ground ball rate against the pitch, but he also hits them for the second farthest distance on the team. He’s two for five (.400) so far against Cash.. Trashner.
Jean Segura, Brock Holt
Brandon Nimmo ($4,300)
Yup… Look Nimmo is underrated. This dude has a 1.0 OPS on the year right now! Remember when Conforto was “the guy”? Sure, he very well could be down the road, but Nimmo is an all-star for sure (I hope he starts over Markakis). His splits have him at a 300+ average and 1.0+ OPS. He has four home runs in his last seven. Call me crazy, but $4,300 is too cheap for this hitter in Coors.
Josh Reddick ($2,700)
Reddick has favorable splits tonight and Eovaldi has struggled hard (albeit, he’s pitched against strong teams). He is allowing a .379 xwOBA to lefties and Reddick has .333 average going for him in the last week. He’s also five for eleven (.455) against Eovaldi in his career.
Craig Gentry ($2,200)
I really wanted to be on Kiermaier tonight, and he perhaps has more upside, but he’s 0-5 with 5ks against Morton. If Gentry is hitting leadoff, he could provide some value for your roster tonight. Gio is an intimidating pitcher, but the O’s are still predicted to score 3.7 against Tampa’s 2.9. Unfortunately, all the low-cost value plays for outfielders seem to be facing established starters.
Juan Soto, Brett Gardner, Kevin Kiermaier