unnamed.png

About Last Night…

[cid:410c697b-854b-48fb-8ebd-0a026e8c1bd6]

So I’m a little bit of a hypocrite for repeatedly warning of weather delays. I ended up short on the cash line because of the postponement. To be fair, it was canceled as I was watching The Incredibles 2. Great movie, don’t regret the decision to watch it during crunch time. The rain at Wrigley and the doubleheader game were annoying to keep up with. Anyways, Brandon Nimmo crushed it. The Mets crushed it in general and were pretty low owned in the GPP I was in. Suarez was in line for the win until a blown save happened. Bauer was again the better choice to roster against Cole. Kansas City only scored three on the night and busted against Texas like I imagined. I definitely had high hopes on the Dodgers yesterday. Unfortunately, things didn’t go my way. Oh well, it happens right?

Slate Summary :

Back to a full slate. We have a handful of games with a 9 run implied total. The Coors game is 11.5 right now, and today, I’m going to look more toward Colorado’s hitters rather than New York. In fact, the Rockies have a humongous 6.2 expected run total. The Cubs-Dodgers game could very well see some rain again today, so be careful and check the status before lock. Teams such as the A’s, Rangers, and Mets all have inexpensive hitters in good spots. We have Verlander and Sale as a one-two punch at pitching, followed by a small collection of adequate pitchers, and then some exposable hurlers.

P:

Justin Verlander ($11,500)
The Rays have an implied total of 2.13 against Verlander. He is arguably the safest pitcher tonight against an anemic Tampa lineup. Only Ramos has a good history with fastballs at ~95 MPH of the regulars. Opponents are hitting a .229 wOBA against his heater. Most of this lineup is also cold right now.

Mike Clevinger (9,300)
There is really nowhere I want to go other than Verlander honestly. There aren’t any appetizing matchups on paper for cheaper pitchers. Hamels is maybe the lowest I’d go. Clevinger has been pitching well and gets some strikeout upside against the White Sox. He has limited home runs which is good against this power-heavy lineup. The ChiSox deploy a bunch of lefties and Clevinger has limited left-handed bats to a .218 average with one home run.

Alternative Picks:

Chris Sale, Luke Weaver

C/1B:

Tyler Flowers ($3,400)
Flowers has been on fire against lefties this year. A .469 average and 1.4 OPS against lefties should be a welcomed sight against Jaime Garcia. He has also fared better on the road so far. He’s given up less than three runs just four times this year. Kurt Suzuki would be an alternative for $2,700, and he is pretty much in the same boat as Flowers. Ian Desmond is another option.

John Hicks ($2,500)
Hicks has been hitting in the middle of the order since Cabrera’s injury. Tonight he squares off against Sal Romano, who has been very exploitable. Hicks is hitting .353 in his last fourteen games and has done almost all of his damage to righties. You have two bopping catchers in Russel Martin and Alex Avila who are near minimum salary that could help your lineup as well.

Alternative Picks:

Ian Desmond, Kurt Suzuki

2B:

D.J. Lemahieu ($4,100)
The Deej faces everyone’s favorite lefty, Jason Vargas. He’s allowing a .348 xwOBA to righties and Lemahieu has a .433 wOBA against lefties. Vargas has a combined ~60% pitch usage of curveballs and sinkers. Let’s see how that goes tonight.

Ian Kinsler ($3,300)
Matt Koch has allowed a monstrous .444 xwOBA to righties. Kinsler hasn’t been an offensive force but he’ll hit leadoff against Koch with favorable splits. His slugging is .443 against righties this year and he has an unsustainable .212 BABIP. Koch currently has a 1.9 HR/9.

Alternative Picks:

Asdrubal Cabrera, Jace Peterson

3B:

Adrian Beltre ($3,100)
Obviously, if you can afford Arenado, go for it. But the way this slate is, I would put pitching as a higher priority. I like Story better also. Beltre is cheap and will hit cleanup against Jason Hammel. Hammel hasn’t been blown up lately, but the run total in Kansas City is still high, and it’s gonna be hot with some light wind blowing out. Beltre hit a home run yesterday, and there’s no reaosn to think he won’t have some loud at-bats today.

Chad Pinder ($2,200)
Pinder is a relieving play at only $2,200. Eric Lauer is just bad and Pinder owns a .381 wOBA against lefties. He also has a 1.1 OPS in his last seven games. He should be hitting near the top of the order behind some power-hitters.

Alternative Plays:

Nolan Arenado, Colin Moran

SS:

Trevor Story ($4,800)
Remember the story about that new shortstop the Rockies had in 2016? Well now he’s actually the real deal. Story is hitting .351 in his last fifteen games and has demolished left-handed pitching. Six of his fifteen home runs have come against them, in less than half the at-bats. Jason Vargas is bad and should feel bad. I would love to roster him if I end up being able to afford him.

Andrelton Simmons ($3,200)
Simmons has been in a funk, but the guy has a 96% contact rate. Koch has an enormous 46.5% hard contact rate. Simmons has a .353 wOBA against righties. Simmons also has a good history against the velocity of fastballs Koch throws.

Alternative Plays:

Trea Turner, Amed Rosario

OF:

Giancarlo Stanton ($4,200)
Yup I’m going there tonight. Stanton still has been successful against lefties and his price is down. Marco Gonzales is serviceable but he doesn’t own elite numbers. He’s hitting over .300 in his last seven games.

Kike Hernandez ($2,600)
Hernandez has been hitting better against lefties lately. Montgomery has held his own, but on a night like tonight, we need value. Just WATCH FOR RAIN!

Brandon Guyer ($2,100)
Guyer has hit much better against lefties and finds himself in the five hole tonight. Carlos Rodon isn’t a threatening pitcher. I’ll take my chances tonight with Guyer at near minimum.

Alternative Picks:

Charlie Blackmon, Shin-Soo Choo, Rajai Davis

Leave a Reply