We have a ten game slate on this fantastic Monday which includes the second game of a back-to-back and a game at Coors. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN AFFECTING GAMES, ALWAYS MAKE SURE TO STAY AWARE OF WEATHER. Gerrit Cole is on the mound and has been usurped as the priciest pitcher by Bauer. We have a couple other established pitchers/aces on the mound today such as Jacob deGrom at Coors, Zack Greinke, and Miles Mikolas. A lot of these games are pick ems or close to them. The Mets have been scuffling, but they came to life a bit against Arizona, and now go to Colorado and they’re pretty cheap. The Royals have an implied total of 4.82 runs against Bartolo Colon, despite a weak on-paper lineup. The Dodgers are not too expensive and they face Tyler Chatwood, who has greatly limited home runs, but he is giving up as many walks as strikeouts.
Trevor Bauer ($11,200)
Back to Bauer. I like Cole as well, but I’m going to stick with Bauer. He’s given up five home runs on the year opposed to Cole’s eleven. He’s now gone double-digit strikeouts in five of six starts, and his WHIP was one or less in four of them. He just struck out twelve White Sox and faces them again where their boppers are still struggling. WATCH FOR WEATHER!
Andrew Suarez ($6,600)
I’ll place a bet that Suarez will become a good pitcher soon, as his major league career is just starting. He already is having a decent year. His front-numbers, a 4.92 ERA and a 2-4 record don’t look good. But his FIP and SIERA are lower than his ERA, and he’s never had an ERA north of four in his minor league career. He owns a .83 WHIP at home. Miami is one of the worst teams against lefties with a .662 OPS. The Giants are in the top three in the Vegas line tonight.
Gerrit Cole, Bartolo Colon (GPP, 5.6k against a putrid Royals offense)
Wilmer Flores ($3,400)
Flores has hit 15+ homers the past three years. The power will come, and he should get some help tonight with the altitude. He has a 50% fly ball rate against lefties. He has a low .202 BABIP which should easily increase. Flores is known as a lefty specialist, and Tyler Anderson is nothing special. At $3,400, Flores will be in Coors hitting in the middle of the lineup.
Yasmani Grandal ($2,800)
Grandal is cheaper than usual and is six for eleven (.545) with a 1.6 OPS against Chatwood. The Cubs’ pitcher has really struggled with command and is allowing a .395 xwOBA to lefties. Grandal has a good walk rate and a .211 ISO for the year on a surging Los Angeles team.
Yulieski Gurriel, Yadier Molina
Asdrubal Cabrera ($3,300)
Yes, another hitter in Colorado. Cabrera is dirt cheap when considering he’s playing at Coors. He’s been in a slump but came alive during the last two games in Arizona. Tyler Anderson has predictably been worse at home and currently has given up 1.45 HR/9 this season. Cabrera hits well against all of Anderson’s pitches except curveballs. Cabrera is admittedly a play mostly because of his price and power potential at Coors.
Jedd Gyorko ($2,500)
Gyorko has a small, but advantageous BVP sample against Pivetta. He’s four for five (.800) with a home run. Gyorko has a .302 average away from home. Pivetta just got owned at home by Colorado and is only a year removed from a campaign where righties hit .308 and twenty home runs against him. It’s gonna be hot in Philly and righties love hitting at Citizens Bank Park.
Jose Altuve, Rougned Odor
Max Muncy ($3,900)
This man is on fire. To go with his raw power, he has an incredible walk rate, and that’s great news against Tyler Chatwood. His OPS is over 1.0 away from Dodger Stadium and has a .409 wOBA against righties. Chatwood allows a .395 xwOBA to lefties this year. Hot weather and a 45% 95MPH exit velocity against righties lead me to believe there’s a good chance Muncy sees some drivable pitches tonight.
Colin Moran ($2,700)
If Moran continues hitting cleanup, he should be a good value play today. Chacin allows a .354 xwOBA to lefties and has oddly enough struggled more outside of Miller Park. Moran has favorable splits tonight and a high contact rate on the year. He also has a good chance to walk and score as he has some good hitters behind him. He’s hit two home runs in his last seven games.
Alex Bregman, Todd Frazier
Didi Gregorius ($4,100)
Shortstop is quite thin in my opinion and if you want to lead towards Amed Rosario ($3,100) at Coors be my guest, but I want to see more from him before I commit. Gregorius is finally hitting the ball again, hitting .400 in his last seven games. He faces Erick Fedde who last started (and struggled) against these Yankees. Gregorius owns a .363 wOBA against righties and actually has a higher hard contact rate than teammate Giancarlo Stanton. Random side note- he has seven of his nine stolen bases on the road this year.
Elvis Andrus ($3,200)
Again, this is a shallow position tonight. Andrus is coming off a DL stint and didn’t perform well in his rehab assignment. But those minor league pitchers may be better than Ian Kennedy right now. Andrus came out of nowhere to hit twenty home runs last year, and if his tiny sample size this year proves to be consistent, he should show similar power. Kennedy allows a huge 40% hard contact rating. His fastball is a big part of that. Opponents are hitting a .403 wOBA and a 49% hard contact rate against it. Sure we’re at Kauffman, but the Rangers are expected to score 4.76 runs on a scorching day.
Carlos Correa, Amed Rosario
Michael Brantley ($4,100)
Yup, I just went past the Bronx Bombers to get Brantley. First of all, CHECK FOR RAIN. Second of all, Brantley is in good form, and has struck out only twice in his last twenty-five at bats. Covey has been great, but he has pitched worse away and he’s lucked out a bit with a .344 BABIP. Brantley has a four for six (.667) average against him. I have a feeling Covey is going to regress as he keeps starting (he was atrocious last year in limited action), and Brantley should be low owned.
Brandon Nimmo ($3,800)
Tyler Anderson has reverse splits and has allowed a .370 xwOBA to lefties. Nimmo is ridiculously priced, even against a lefty. Despite struggling against southpaws, he has a 55% hard contact rate against lefties. In a very limited sample size, Nimmo has a .667 wOBA against ~91 MPH fastballs with an average distance of 336 feet. Let’s not forget about the Rockie’s mediocre bullpen that will inevitably come into the game. Anderson has yet to go more than six innings at home.
Joc Pederson ($2,800)
Wat? Pederson is $2,800? Sign me up. Seven home runs and a 1.5 OPS in his last fourteen games? a .360 average and 1.2 OPS on the road? a five for eleven (.455) average against Chatwood? Ok, you get it, Pederson is in a good spot here.
Matt Kemp, Shin-Soo Choo, Corey Dickerson