About Last Night…
German racked up double-digit strikeouts, but Sanchez crushed it last night. Koch managed to limit damage against him. Stanton is frustrating, though Hicks came through. Also, Andujar ended up hitting fifth. If he was projected there I probably would have been on him more. Matt Duffy seems to either hit a double or have multiple hits in every game. His price has been static around ~$2,600. Inciarte didn’t swipe a bag, but he did hit a home run. All in all, it was kind of an unspectacular night of baseball. Today will be more exciting!
We’re back again with a full slate. Fridays are for baseball! Lots of offense is apparently about to be seen. Four games are set with implied totals of 8 runs or less. One game goes to eleven. Rockies-Rangers is apparently going to be a slugfest. There’s going to be plenty of offensive options, and one game that looks interesting is Reds-Pirates. Pittsburgh is expected to score just under five runs. With this in mind, the most expensive hitter is $3.2k. The Yankees are throwing a Double-A pitcher and the Rays are only expected to score 3.84, less than their runs/game. That seems a little fishy to me. These could be some teams which could save you money as you pay for some exceptional pitching. Kluber leads the way, and though he is $12k, he seems to be a pretty safe play. He may not fetch sixty points, but fifty certainly isn’t out of the question. In fact, he has fifty+ points in three of his last five starts. Who else can we pivot to? Let’s see.
Corey Kluber ($12,000)
If this were a six-game slate, I would probably advise fading Kluber. But he is scorching hot and facing a Twins team that he’s owned in the past. Twins hitters have hit .154 with a .483 OPS. I see Paxton being an option also, as Boston has surprisingly not done well as a team against lefties, but I would much rather face Minnesota than Boston. The Twins haven’t been daunting. They just demoted Sano, and Ehire Ruth is their best hitter in the last week. I strongly urge you to not overthink Kluber in cash games.
Ross Stripling ($9,100)
Stripling is by far my favorite value pitcher on the slate. He has been lights out. He’s always had this ability, the Dodgers just rarely ever gave him the opportunity to start. Here are his point totals from his last five starts (starting with the most recent): 42, 42, 55, 60, 52. He is only $9,100 with these numbers! The Giants barely avoided getting swept by the Marlins and look a little weak offensively and they have a much worse record on the road. Speaking of, they just finished a sixteen inning game and are traveling from Miami to Los Angeles. They just lost a bopper in Longoria. This has the looks of a great spot for Stripling.
Zack Godley ($7,200)
I’m not a fan of reaching this low at pitcher, but Godley is one pick who could provide for your lineup. Sure, he’s regressed considerably this year, but he has a sparkling 2.93 ERA at home. For whatever reason, he has prevented walking batters at Chase Field, whereas he owns a 1.83 WHIP away. He needs to rely on his curveball tonight. The top four projected hitters in the New York lineup own a wOBA under .300. This whole team crushes sinkerballers though. You have to bank on pitch selection and the struggles of New York recently. They are 1-9 in their last ten. Thirty to thirty-five points is still fairly realistic.
James Paxton, Gio Gonzalez, Kevin Gausman
Edwin Encarnacion ($3,900)
His price is below $4k because he has struggled a bit, but this is a matchup we want to exploit. Gibson allows a 36% hard contact rating and doesn’t have a high strikeout rate. Encarnacion is seven for nineteen (.368) with four home runs.
Matt Adams ($3,400)
Adams has been on a tear, hitting .500 in his last seven games. Tonight, the Nats are hitting against Aaron Sanchez, who has been pretty vulnerable. Adams has a .985 OPS against righties, while Sanchez is cooking up a .373 xwOBA to lefties. Here’s to hoping he’ll ahead of the seven spot.
Kurt Suzuki ($2,700)
Suzuki is in line for a dreamy matchup against Clayton Richard. The southpaw has understandingly been worse against righties, and Suzuki is thriving against them. He hits well against all of Richard’s pitches except the sinker. But with that, he has a lower than average chance of hitting a ground ball with the pitch. He has favorable splits tonight and could be hitting fifth tonight.
Eric Hosmer, Yulieski Gurriel, Wilson Ramos
Jose Altuve ($4,100)
Altuve has been in his usual form and faces Jacob Junis, who allows a .343 xwOBA toward righties. The wind is blowing out a bit to left, and the Astros have one of the highest run totals on the night with a 5.37. Altuve hits all of Junis’s pitches well. Altuve also has had an OPS over one when playing away.
Josh Harrison ($3,200)
Harrison provides a decent floor and will likely hit leadoff in a sneaky game where the Pirates are expected to score almost five runs. Harrison has been hitting well and has hit Matt Harvey even better with a five for eleven (.455) average. Harvey has found himself again, meaning he’s finding ways to give up earned runs. This Cincinnati bullpen isn’t lights out either.
Rougned Odor ($2,300)
I am in no way a Odor fan, but he is almost minimum priced against Bettis. The Rangers have the highest total in the slate, and for good reason. He’s given up five earned runs in three straight starts. Odor has a small history against him, hitting two for three with a triple and a home run. Bettis has a low strikeout rate, and hitters are hitting his favored fastball with a .397 wOBA. You might notice Odor’s pitiful ISO, but you maybe haven’t seen that he’s still hitting balls with a 40% 95+ MPH exit velocity and a 45% fly ball rate. It’s also supposed to be ninety-five degrees at Arlington. It gon’ be hot. Try Odor in a GPP.
DJ Lemahieu, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jesmuel Valentin
Nolan Arenado ($4,600)
Texas is hot, Arenado is facing a lefty. You know what to do. Look at Trevor Story too. Alternatively, look for Bregman at Kansas City.
Adrian Beltre ($3,300)
It would be my pleasure to roster a cleanup-hitting third baseman for $3,300 with a run total of 5.42, don’t mind if I do. Beltre has hit .500 in his last seven games with three straight multi-hit games. Bettis allows a .353 xwOBA to righties. Anthony Rendon is a good pivot play at the same price.
Colin Moran ($2,500)
There’s actually a few cheap third basemen in good spots. Duffy squares off against a minor leaguer, Candelario is only $2.9k, Valbuena is predicted to slot in the heart of the order, and we have Moran who is also supposed to be a feature in Pittsburgh’s lineup today. Harvey is allowing a .406 wOBA toward lefties this year, and they are collectively enjoying a .309 ISO against the Dark Knight. Moran has a .790 OPS in his last fifteen games.
Alex Bregman, Anthony Rendon, Jeimer Candelario
Trevor Story ($4,300)
No brainer here. If you can get him…. get him. This mythical beast has a 1.5 OPS in his last seven games. Seven of his thirteen hits have gone for extra bases. He has a 1.0 OPS against lefties. And yes, IT IS HOT!!!!! I would prefer Story over Arenado to be honest, third has a lot of good, cheaper plays.
Marcus Semien ($2,900)
I have an antipathy toward Semien. I just don’t think he’s good, and there’s definitely no bias there. Ok fine, he’s not terrible, and he’s only $2.9k. It’s supposed to be blowing out slightly in Oakland, and Skaggs allows a 36.6% hard contact against righties. Semien squares up fastballs of Skaggs’s speed well, hitting a .439 wOBA against it. He’s sort of boom-or-bust, but he’s a cheap one-off at a meh shortstop position.
Nick Ahmed ($2,800)
Ahmed has a 1.0 OPS in his last seven games. He’s facing Seth Lugo, who is kind of a question mark. He flourished last game, but he has been a bullpen arm for most of the year. He probably won’t go past six innings, and the Mets have a bad bullpen. The problem with Ahmed tonight is he’ll probably be buried in this lineup and hit lower in the order. Shortstop is a position to spend on tonight.
Manny Machado, Dansby Swanson, J.T. Riddle
Shin-Soo Choo ($3,700)
Ok guys I’m tired of saying it. Colorado-Texas will probably an offensive game ok. They could also be a bit chalky. Choo usually isn’t. He’s hitting almost a 1.3 OPS in his last seven and will probably lead off tonight. When Bettis gets pulled, in comes a bullpen with a combined 5.28 ERA. Choo has a .356 wOBA against righties and a 47% chance of hitting a ball with a 95+ MPH exit velocity. It’s going to be difficult filling outfielders with $4k+ outfielders, so Choo is a pretty good solution.
Corey Dickerson ($2,800)
Dickerson is arguably the best value play of the night. He has scuffled, which is why he’s so cheap, but even with that he’s still hitting .310 on the year. Harvey has a hard time getting lefties out, evident from his .399 xwOBA. He’s going to be in trouble against this lefty-heavy lineup. Dickerson hasn’t shown the power this year, but he has a high contact rate, and specifically, a high line drive rate. He does have a .343 ISO against fastballs around 94 MPH and a near-fifty percent hard contact rate. Harvey throws the heater 44% of the time. Austin Meadows is also a fantastic play tonight and has a bit more upside, but he just has less of a track record.
Noel Cuevas ($2,000)
Choo-choo. All aboard the value train. Cuevas hasn’t shown much at the major league level, but he in minimum-priced in Arlington. His ISO seems to be quite higher in the minors. He had a .175 with fifteen home runs last year over ~500 at-bats. As always, let’s see what the lineup looks like before we commit to anything, but he is a sure option if in the lineup. Kike Hernandez squares off against lefty Derek Holland if you’d rather go on that train route.
Rhys Hoskins, Austin Meadows, Joey Gallo