About Last Night…
I went to the Astros-A’s game last night and it was quite an offensive showing by Houston. Cole did what I figured last night. He made hitters look silly, but he also gave up some shots. Gattis and Davis both had two home runs. My guy Blackburn got smashed. I also accomplished my lifelong goal of getting a game ball, a foul hit by Gurriel! As for the rest of the slate, the Cardinals bombed against Eric Lauer and Juan Soto continues to impress. As for this lineup, all players were featured yesterday. Hernandez ended with 9.2 points, not 6, and Turner ended up being a good play. Molina and Gyorko failed to come through in great spots. Bauer really carried me yesterday. He was much higher owned than Cole to my surprise. He has finally gotten to the peak that was expected of him for so long. I remember him coming up with the Diamondbacks and just thinking he could end up being a bust. I’m glad that’s not the case. He is having a great year.
We finally get a smaller main slate today with just four games. Right away, I see that there is no clear idea of which pitcher to roster. I would argue that no one is in a great spot. Snell is up against the Yankees, Price against the surging M’s, and Anibal Sanchez is expected for some regression, making his start with San Diego a bit risky. I don’t see there being a chalky starter on Fanduel. All games are set at least 8.5 runs. The Mets-Diamondbacks game seems like it could be a tad overlooked, and that’s where we’re going to get some value. Let’s look at the picks.
Domingo German ($7,000)
You’re gonna have quite a decision in picking a pitcher tonight. Nothing really stands out on paper. German probably is best suited for GPP. I don’t like Price against the Mariners, they’re hitting a bunch of home runs. Snell could be a great play, but he could also get crushed. The Rays have a decent strikeout rate and many of their hitters are struggling right now. C.J. Cron is two for his last sixteen. That’s good news since German has reverse splits so far this year. There’s not much else pop in this lineup. Ramos has a .606 OPS in his last seven and Carlos Gomez is two for twenty-two. The wind is blowing out to right and so lefties have an advantage, but German is limiting them to a .280 wOBA. He is risky, but so are all these other options.
Anibal Sanchez ($6,300)
Sanchez has been a surprise so far for the Braves. That’s likely to end soon, however. He has a 2.37 ERA but a 4.17 SIERA, a 4.91 FIP, and a .212 BABIP. That doesn’t mean we can’t squeeze one more start out of him. He has the Padres tonight and they have a 4.00 implied run total. Like the Rays, a lot of Friars are in cold streaks. Unfortunately for Sanchez, Hosmer is not one of them. This matchup will then depend on the lefties against Sanchez. They are hitting a collective .381 xwOBA against him. Lefties will be in the top of the order, will Sanchez be able to limit them?
Blake Snell, David Price
Freddie Freeman ($4,800)
You should really strive for paying up at first today. If you can, try to get Freeman or Goldschmidt. I’m picking Freeman because Goldschmidt has much worse splits at home. Ross allows a .370 xwOBA against lefties. On paper, Freeman should crush Ross’s fastball. Hitters have a .395 wOBA against it, and Freeman himself has a .593 wOBA and .541 ISO (!!!). He also has decent stats against sliders, Ross’s putaway pitch.
John Ryan Murphy ($2,600)
Murphy is basically a poor man’s Goldschmidt right now. He hits lefties well, and lookie, we have Jason Vargas on the mound. He is hitting lefties with a .900 OPS and five of his eight home runs have come against them. He’s cheap and in the middle of the lineup. He already has a two for four history against Vargas. The Mets also have the worst bullpen in the slate.
Paul Goldschmidt, Wilson Ramos
Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,900)
There’s really not much to play with at second. If you want to try Albies or Torres, go for it, but I would rather save salary for other positions. Cabrera makes the most sense out of these cheaper options. Matt Koch is not pitching well against righties or lefties. Cabrera has home run upside and especially in this matchup. Koch has by far the highest hard contact rate on the day. His FIP is higher than his ERA and his strikeout rate is virtually nonexistent. Cabrera has been cold, but he’s a near lock at a barren position.
Joey Wendle ($2,400)
Wendle doesn’t have much upside. He does done better against righties and away from home. Hitters have a tendency of hitting balls hard against German, but Wendle has a meager .100 ISO. He’s gotten at least three points in eight of his last nine games. He’s really the only option as of now if you need the extra salary.
Eduardo Nunez, Possible alternative starters
Todd Frazier ($3,400)
Frazier is again, facing Matt Koch with a huge hard contact rating. He has scuffled (like the rest of this New York lineup), but he also has two home runs in his last seven games. He has struck out a lot, but we don’t need to worry about that with Koch. Frazier hits for the longest average distance on the team against fastballs around 91 MPH.
Cory Spangenberg ($2,600)
Spangenberg is one of the only other Padre hitters besides Hosmer that has been hitting well as of late. He has a .850 OPS in his last fourteen games. Sanchez has a .381 xwOBA allowed against lefties.
Rafael Devers, Matt Duffy
Jean Segura ($4,100)
Segura has been hitting very well for a while now. In fact, he has over a .400 average in his last thirty games. David Price is no easy matchup, but if we look deeper we can see that he isn’t totally invulnerable. He has a high walk rate this year? How many walks? About the same amount as 2014 when he pitched almost 250 innings. He’s having some issues with his control. Many of his starts have come against hit-or-miss teams (Tampa four times, Toronto twice, ChiSox). Seattle is a formidable foe, and Segura doesn’t need to rely on home runs, which is good since the game is at Safeco. He has smashed lefties, and we’ll see how Price fares throughout the game.
Nick Ahmed ($2,800)
Ahmed has had an off-and-on year and right now he’s on. An OPS near one in his last seven games, he will be up against gassy Vargas. He’s hitting much better against lefties. Plug him in if he’s featured in the lineup.
Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,200)
I always have a small knot in my stomach when I think about rostering Stanton. He makes or breaks a lineup. He is facing the southpaw Snell, and has a home run against him. Stanton connects fastballs of Snell’s velocity with a .427 wOBA and an average of 344 feet. He’s at a bit of a discount, but Judge is in play as well. Both are cheaper than the Boston outfielders. King Felix has a decent 4.04 ERA at home, and they are at Safeco. The wind is supposed to blow out at Yankee Stadium. Nonetheless, you’re going to want to grab one of two of these AL East boppers.
Brandon Nimmo ($3,200)
Nimmo is very affordable tonight against Koch. He has not slowed down much and he is hitting a .950 OPS on the year. He’ll be in the heart of the order and has hit just as well away as home. Koch is allowing a .396 xwOBA to lefties.
Ender Inciarte ($2,700)
Inciarte has a good chance of getting on base tonight. Ross has always had control problems and although Inciarte doesn’t have a high walk rate, he has a low strikeout rate as well. This could mean that Inciarte will have pitches to hit and will make contact. He has a 86% contact rate this year. If he reaches, he has a good chance of stealing a bag. Ross is a few years removed from allowing over thirty stolen bases. Enciarte is by far going to surpass his career-high stolen base total, and he might even lead the league by season’s end.
Andrew Benintendi, Aaron Hicks, Michael Conforto