About Last Night:
I mentioned Trout yesterday and he subsequently hit two home runs. Folty left early because of tricep tightness and it really messed with the lineups I had with him. He was pitching great. Eduardo Rodriguez was the other pitcher I rostered and he was an out away from a quality start before being pulled. Max Muncy is suddenly a machine. Correa was an obvious play here. Believing in Detroit didn’t end well. Neither Martin or Castellanos did much. Let’s give a round of applause to dfsdudes for winning second in last night’s Fanduel quarter GPP!
Side note- I’m going to be at the Astros-A’s game tonight and I’m excited to see the world champs play and see Cole pitch! We are amidst another large main slate, today with nine games. The Yankees currently have the highest implied total, with the Reds and Royals again not far behind. A lot of teams are in the threes today, such as the A’s, Angels, Braves, and Pirates. We have four pitchers priced above $9,000 on Fanduel today. Is it worth paying $11,800 for Cole today? Or are there other pitchers we should look out for; Let’s check it out.
Trevor Bauer ($10,800)
I can’t believe I’m saying this, but I’m probably going to fade Cole tonight. If I’m wrong on this one, I’ll be witnessing it live. Is he going to be good? Yes. Do I think he’s going to score 55-60 points? I have a hard time believing it to be honest. He’s been great, don’t get me wrong, but he hasn’t recorded double-digit strikeouts in seven starts. He has pitched well against the A’s this year, but I just don’t see full value. I still have no dispute if you decide on rostering him, he is a safe play and a necessity for cash. Bauer is facing a much worse team which has also struggled even more as of late. This team has two home runs in the last seven games. Bauer has compiled double-digit strikeouts in four of his last five starts.
Luke Weaver ($6,700)
This spot was reserved for Kenta Maeda, but I doubt he goes deep into this game since he just came back from the DL. Dave Roberts has limited innings for his starting pitchers all season, frustratingly. Weaver will not a be a high-owned pitcher, but he has good odds to provide some value and salary relief. He currently has a lower FIP and SIERA than his ERA. His walks are a hindrance, but the Padres are not exactly a patient bunch. Weaver has a good chance to reach six innings and receive a win. The Cards are the biggest favorite in Vegas’s money line. I think Caleb Smith is also an option against the suddenly flat Giants.
Gerrit Cole, Caleb Smith, Dylan Covey
Yadier Molina ($3,000)
First base surprisingly doesn’t seem very deep tonight. I’m going to advertise Molina for your lineup. He has hit lefties well in his career and is up against one with a 41.4% contact rate in Eric Lauer. He’s giving up a .371 xwOBA against righties this year. In the heart of the order, Molina will likely be able to knock in some runs. If you have the money, look up Joey Votto.
Austin Romine ($2,800)
Romine has been yet another surprise for the Yankees this year, and he could very well have a part in their 5.40 implied run total. The Nats are throwing a minor leaguer on the mound who has struggled a bit in Triple-A this year. He has limited home runs against him in his career, but this is the juggernaut Yankees. Romine is a cheap option in a great lineup.
Joey Votto, Austin Barnes
Scooter Gennett ($4,000)
I was going to pick Dozier against a lefty, but Matt Boyd has pitched fairly well and hasn’t allowed many home runs this year. Enter Gennett, who squares off against Jason Hammel. He is pitching better than usual, but that’s not saying much. He allows a .422 xwOBA against lefties. Gennett is still hitting and will have good shots against the Royals’ pitching.
Jedd Gyorko ($2,800)
Like I said, Lauer is pretty bad. Gyorko is really good… against lefties. He’s hitting .400 against them. But listen to this. He has three home runs in twenty-five appearances compared to two home runs in one hundred appearances against righties. I like Gyorko’s odds tonight.
Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy
Brian Anderson ($3,500)
His price is ballooning, but for good reason. Anderson has been hitting great, evident by a 1.1 OPS in his last fourteen games. He crushed MadBum the other night and sees a less decorated lefty tonight in Andrew Suarez. Suarez has the look of a good pitcher down the road, but he has struggled in his last several starts. He has unfavorable splits playing away from home and righties are hitting .303 against him. Anderson is hitting lefties harder than righties and I still think he will outproduce his price tonight.
Justin Turner ($3,200)
Turner is eventually going to up his stats for the year, and that certainly could become the case tonight. Hamels is good, I get it. Turner is still hitting southpaws decently after he hit .380 against them last year. Righties have a .369 xwOBA against him. Hamels also gives up a lot of hard contact. All of his pitches come with at least a 34 hard contact percentage. Turner is a bargain at this price.
Mike Moustakas, Cory Spangenberg
Carlos Correa ($3,900)
Whoa whoa whoa! I just paid $2,700 for this shortstop yesterday, why is he so expensive??? This is Carlos Correa, a twenty-three year old who vies for the top player at his position in the major leagues. A big reason why he hasn’t quite been as dialed in this season is his strikeout rating which currently is at a career high. Well, tonight he faces Paul Blackburn (whom I like very much), who has a nonexistent strikeout percentage. No, really, he has a 9.7 strikeout percentage. He also has a low walk rate, meaning that Correa will see strikes. Balls are going to be hit. Blackburn’s sinker is his best weapon, and Correa hits a .398 wOBA against it. It’s going to be a matter of whether he can lift one out, or if he can get a ball away from the defense.
Ehire Adrianza ($2,800)
I seriously cannot believe I’m recommending this player. He was on my Giants for a few years and he had to be the closest thing to an automatic out that I’ve ever seen (besides pitchers). Here I am, telling you that he is hitting a 1.5 OPS in his last seven and is hitting .351 against lefties… He hit a grand slam yesterday.. HOW??? He also has hit four for seven (.571) against Matt Boyd. Shortstop is very thin, try to pay up if you can.
Trea Turner, Scott Kingery
Aaron Judge ($4,800)
If you can get to him, Judge would be my favorite star outfielder to grab tonight. What does Judge do to sinkers and changeups? Oh not much really, just a .420 and .425 wOBA. This machine literally hits sinkers 342 FEET ON AVERAGE. These are Fedde’s favorite pitches, maybe not after tonight. If you want to look elsewhere, George Springer, Tommy Pham, and Matt Kemp are some good higher-end options.
Brett Gardner ($3,000)
Lol. I’m back on the Gardner train. He’s down to $3k despite having a 1.0 OPS in his last fourteen games. His OBP is at .358 and Fedde has a 1.5 WHIP in Triple-A. Gardner is also hitting right in front of Judge. These two would complement each other well in a stack.
Kike Hernandez ($2,400)
I remember last time I talked about Kike. I said he was putrid against lefties this year, and I was right on that day. He’s starting to up his numbers against lefties, though, and if he is hitting fourth I’ll like him a lot against Hamels. Against righties, he is allowing a .369 wOBA. Damn that’s fine. One more time, consider Kike.
George Springer, Rhys Hoskins, Robbie Grossman