About Last Night:
Carrasco mowed through the White Sox and Musgrove had a good outing. Sadly, Giolito didn’t get lit up, and it was only Brantley that put some points up. McCutchen had some good at-bats, but the rest of the lineup was meh. Jake Bauers introduced himself to MLB last night, wow. Brian Anderson looks phenomenal right now, he’s a bright spot for Miami. Speaking of, MadBum’s outing went pretty much as I expected. He needs to get himself together before he faces legit offenses. Teoscar Hernandez is another player who’s establishing himself this year.
We have a fun fifteen game slate on a Tuesday which I’m to decipher. Almost all run totals are in the fours for each team. As for pitchers, we have a few good arms, some unknowns, and some gas cans. The Yankees, as of now, own the highest implied run total, despite being half a run under their runs/game. The Royals, Reds, and Tigers have much higher implied totals than usual. The Rockies and A’s have been significantly dinged since they are facing Nola and McCullers. Let’s try to get through this huge slate, shall we?
Mike Foltynewicz ($9,000)
Nola could wind up being a good play against the Rockies and Mikolas against the Padres, but I have a natural pull toward Folty. He has been in good form all year. In fact, he has allowed more than two earned runs once all season. This matchup against the Mets is more appetizing than some of the other matchups for premier pitchers. New York’s best hitter in the last seven games is Brandon Nimmo, with a .235 average. This team is currently 13-21 at home, and Folty has equal stats playing away from Suntrust.
Eduardo Rodriguez ($8,500)
Although Rodriguez hasn’t gone long in games, he’s been very consistent. He’s gotten at least thirty fantasy points in six of seven of his last starts. The Orioles have the second-worst OPS against southpaws. Machado has struggled greatly as of late, and that certainly plays into why Baltimore has lost five straight. All signs indicate that Rodriguez is going to have his best year yet, and his recent success could definitely resume tonight against Baltimore.
Aaron Nola, CC Sabathia
Jose Martinez ($4,200)
His price is way up, but you can also picture him being $5,000 with how much he’s been mashing. An OPS of nearly 2.0 with five home runs in his last seven games. The starter for the Padres is expected to not go long at all into the game, meaning it will be a bullpen game for San Diego. With how hot he is, I don’t think it matters who is pitching against him. He’ll probably be a bit chalky in a full slate, but I wouldn’t mind paying up to him for cash games.
Yasmani Grandal ($3,000)
Grandal’s price has come way down as he hasn’t matched his hot start to the season. Today we find the Dodgers against Big Sexy and that makes the Dodgers sexy tonight. Grandal has punished Colon before, a three for nine average (.333) with two home runs. The secret with this matchup? Colon throws a sinker 60% of the time. Get this; Grandal leads the Dodgers with a .440 wOBA, .377 ISO, and 343-foot average distance off sinkers. The Dodgers will probably be popular tonight, but Grandal might be less so because of his recent struggle.
C.J. Cron, Salvador Perez
Whit Merrifield ($3,200)
I have a feeling that this Reds-Royals game is going to be overlooked. This game has a 9.5 implied run total and is in Kansas City! That’s how bad these two pitchers are. Merrifield is quite affordable at $3,200 and Sal Romano is just bad. The Royals don’t strike out and they’re gonna get good looks against Romano. Merrifield hasn’t hit well at home, but interestingly enough, twelve of his fourteen steals have been at home. He may be better suited for GPP, but I can easily see Merrifield getting one or two extra-base hits with accompanying runs. If you can afford him look for Dozier against a lefty at Comerica or Scooter Gennett against Ian Kennedy.
Ben Zobrist ($2,900)
Zobrist has actually been doing well at the plate this season. He squares off against Chase Anderson who allows a .338 xwOBA to lefties. At $2,900, you’re getting a good bat hitting up in the batting order in an uber-good lineup expected to score almost five runs. For you fellow BVP hooligans like myself, Zobrist has hit nine for seventeen (.529) with three home runs and a 1.6 OPS against Anderson.
Scooter Gennett, Daniel Descalso
Anthony Rendon ($3,600)
Third base is absolutely loaded tonight. There are so many picks I like at this position. I wish this article just dealt with third basemen because I could probably write an article just on this position. Rendon crushes lefties and has hit pitches that Sabathia throws really well. I have a feeling this game could become a high-scoring affair, despite each pitcher having a low hard-contact rate. If you want to look elsewhere, Bryant, Moustakas, and Muncy are some names I’d look for at this price range.
Jeimer Candelario ($3,000)
This batter is cheap. Too cheap. He’s $3k and hitting in the heart of the order against Odorizzi. He gives up a .359 xwOBA to lefties and Candelario will be hitting from the left side. He’s hitting a .498 wOBA against fastballs of 90-92 MPH, and Odorizzi’s is nothing special. I would have no qualms rostering Detroit’s man at the hot corner tonight. At this range, you could get Turner, Duffy, or Valbuena as alternatives.
Mike Moustakas, Justin Turner (if starting)
PSA!!! Carlos Correa is $2,700 tonight. That is all.
Brandon Crawford ($3,400)
If you don’t want to pick 70% owned Correa tonight, maybe Crawford is the pick for you. Trevor Richards has a 44.1% hard contact rating and…. Yea Crawford, Scherzer. All jokes aside, Craw had a down game finally, and maybe some players will look elsewhere considering this and his price increasing. I think in a GPP setting, Crawford can shine once again. What worries me is Richard’s changeup. That seems to be his best pitch, and Crawford has struggled against that pitch. It’s a different story with the fastball, however. For a safer play, look for Chris Taylor against Colon.
Carlos Correa ($2,700)
Look, if you don’t consider this guy for cash, you scare me. Mengden has been good, but he just got blown up and is due for a bit of regression. He’s hitting in the middle of the order with the wind slightly blowing straight out. He has a five for ten (.500) history against Mengden. Put him in your lineup unless you’re in some large-field GPP.
Trea Turner, Chris Taylor
Mike Trout ($5,100)
Despite Martinez and Benintendi looking good tonight, Trout is by-and-large my favorite outfielder to pay up for. He’s Mike Trout and the other guy is Mike Leake. Leake has pissed me off quite frankly, but he’s bound to get destroyed eventually. Maybe it’s a team that’s seen him quite a bit already. In fact, the Angels as a team have hit .320 against Leake. He gave up only three to Anaheim the last time he played him, but he only went five and a third. I would go all the way down to Brantley or Yelich if I couldn’t roster Trout.
Christian Yelich ($4,300)
Yelich has been hot and he is up against ball thrower Tyler Chatwood. Cubs-Brewers is an important series right now, and both teams have grade-D pitchers on the mound for it. Yelich has always had a good eye and could find himself walking tonight. This man Chatwood has more walks than strikeouts this year. He has also given up a .397 xwOBA to lefties. Maybe a stolen base isn’t out of the question either tonight.
Nick Castellanos ($2,900)
This is a toss-up between him and Leonys Martin. Both are too cheap tonight against Odorizzi. Martin has been in better form as of late, has seen Odorizzi well, and has the platoon advantage, but Castellanos has a better career track record and sees the pitches that Odorizzi throws better. I think Castellanos may be better for GPP, while Martin is a safer pick. Either way, this Detroit lineup is cheap and you should look for a one-off that could help with salary relief.
J.D. Martinez, Michael Brantley, Andrew McCutchen