Bottom of the Barrel WK8

Bottom of the Barrel WK8
10/26/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Fall is my favorite time of the year. Here in Michigan it’s gorgeous. Trees turn dozens of different colors. Picking pumpkins on a Saturday afternoon is the move. Drinking hot cider at an apple orchard is where people meet. Taking photos with your family while sitting on bales of hay is cute.

Then there’s me.

Michael Myers

Watching vicious and gory horror movies. Turing off the lights inside and watching Michael Myers slay everyone in his path. We are not the same. That’s ok! We’re all connected in other ways! We both love football! We both enjoy DFS! That’s the beauty of all this! We can have different lifestyles and differ in opinions yet still remain cordial and respectful!

Bottom of the Barrel has been rolling all season! Week 8 is no exception! B&B is jam packed this week!

QUARTERBACK

Not new anymore but here’s the most expensive player at QB in week 8. Should help put B&B prices into perspective!

Patrick Mahomes KC @ NYJ (14th)(FD-$9,200)(DK-$7,400)

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at QB!

Derek Carr LV @ CLE (25th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$5,500)

Las Vegas Raiders QB Derek Carr

Though all the interactions I’ve had on social media one thing is clear about Carr. You’re either a fan or you dislike him. There is no in-between. I’m expecting a big week 8 for Derek Carr. The Vegas Raiders head to Cleveland. The Browns let rookie QB Joe Burrow score 4 times! While their defense also gave up 406 total yards and didn’t force a single turnover! Let’s look at Derek’s last three games. OCT 4 vs. BUF (9th) 20.44 points. OCT 11th @ KC (11th) 24.98 points. OCT 25th vs. TB (15th) 20.26. Derek Carr is very nice play Sunday with a nice safe floor!

Baker Mayfield CLE vs. LV (28th)(FD-$7,200)(DK-$6,100)

Cleveland Browns QB Baker Mayfield

Holy smokes! It’s happening! Right? Baker tossed 5 TD passes in week 7 but lost Odell for the season. Can we trust him? Is he for real? Who knows! What I do care about is the match-up Sunday vs. Vegas. It hurts losing OBJ but it has opened up major WR value at other spots in the offense! Stay tuned! Keep reading!

Drew Lock DEN v LAC (29th)(FD-$7,000)(DK-$5,300)

Denver Broncos QB Drew Lock

DFS is all about assessing risk and taking chances. Lock was intercepted twice yesterday by a very good KC team. In week 8 things get a little easier against the lax defense of the Chargers. LAC has given us 30+ points in two straight games.

Tua Tagovailoa MIA vs. LAR (10th)(FD-$6,800)(DK-$5,600)

Miami Dolphins rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa

No need to go wild here in my explanation. It’s very easy! We’ve waited six months for this exact moment! Fantasy football should be fun! Playing Tua in our DFS lines for week 8 is fun!

Nick Foles CHI vs. NO (27th)(FD-$6,700)(DK-$5,800)

Chicago Bears QB Nick Foles

B&B is fantastic isn’t it? No I’m not taking this moment to promote the article. It’s fantastic in the sense I can mention Foles, be completely serious, and get away with it! Foles is throwing the ball around 40 times a game but has only tossed 1 TD per game his last three. With that kind of volume and his price tag, Big D Nick certainly has my attention!

Jimmy Garoppolo SF @ SEA (31st)(FD-$6,600)(DK-$5,400)

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

The 49ers really beat the hell out of the Patriots! Final score 33-6! Meaning Jimmy G had one heck of game through the air right? Well this is awkward! Don’t worry I’m fully expecting Jimmy G. to have his way with the lowly ranked Seahawks defense!

RUNNING BACK

Not new anymore but here’s the most expensive player at RB in week 8. Should help put B&B prices into perspective!

Derrick Henry TEN @ CIN (18th)(FD-$9,500)(DK-$8,000)

Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at RB!

Myles Gaskin MIA vs. LAR (11th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,200)

Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

I’m honestly shocked at his price. Has to be because they were on bye in week 8. Regardless lets take advantage. Myles has averaged 13.6 carries and 4.5 receptions a game. He’s also caught 27 of his 29 targets! (93.1%) Kid has an honest shot at a top-10 RB type week here! Sub-6k? Has homerun written all over it!

Zack Moss BUF vs. NE (21st)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,400)

Buffalo Bills rookie RB Zack Moss

Moss made the most of his targets Sunday in New York but that’s not saying much given their point total. Josh Allen has been taking a ton of the rushing work but hey that’s so 2020! Between the two, Moss and Singletary, I’m going to side with the cheaper player. The Pats let Phil Lindsay and Melvin Gordon run for a combined 169 rushing yards. Why can’t Moss/Singletary have the same success?

JaMycal Hasty SF @ SEA (12th)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$5,000)

San Francisco 49ers RB JaMycal Hasty

Well Hasty looks to be the last man standing in this SF back field at the moment! After Jeff Wilson Jr. went down with an ankle injury Hasty averaged 6.3 yards a carry vs. the Patriots. His price is a little higher then I’d like but us beggars cant be choosers!

James White NE @ BUF (17th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,500)

New England Patriots RB James White

White didn’t log a carry in week 7 and he was only on the field for 10 offensive snaps. He did miss Wednesday and Thursdays practice leading up to week 7 so I understand. Looking ahead to week 8 I’d be shocked if he wasn’t heavily involved. A divisional game with an up-and-coming Bills team could be just what the doctor ordered for their competitiveness!

Carlos Hyde SEA vs. SF (1st)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$5,300)

Seattle Seahawks RB Carlos Hyde

Hyde is a very capable RB. Chris Carson left Sunday nights game with an apparent ankle injury. Carlos scored a 24 yard TD following Carson’s exit. It’s an issue to monitor throughout the week.

Nyheim Hines IND @ DET (28th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,000)

Indianapolis Colts RB Nyheim Hines

It looks as if Hines has fully taken over the RB2 duties in this offense behind Taylor. The Colts head to Detroit on Sunday in what should be a pass heavy air affair. That’s great news for Hines and his fantasy prospects!

DeeJay Dallas SEA vs. SF (1st)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$4,000)

Seattle Seahawks rookie RB DeeJay Dallas

As I said Monday Hyde did something to his hamstring. As we get later and later into the week he stills holds the Q tag. In the even Hyde can’t play DeeJay should get a ton of work! Travis Homer is still nursing a knee contusion. It’s not an idea match-up with the 49ers but you know what I say about volume!

J.K. Dobbins BAL vs. PIT (2nd)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,600)

Baltimore Ravens rookie RB J.K. Dobbins

Mark Ingram still hasn’t practiced! Even with the Ravens on bye week Mark hasn’t progressed much it seems. Leaving Gus and JK has their one-two combo. We’ve all had a little taste of the rookie but left scratching out heads about his usage. If Mark is out Sunday, Dobs will be in plenty of my lineups!

Gus Edwards BAL vs. PIT (2nd)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$4,400)

Baltimore Ravens RB Gus Edwards

If any of you have a handle on what’s going on in this Baltimore backfield please speak now. The Ravens were on bye in week 7 allowing Mark Ingram to rest his ankle injury. Although initial reports still have Mark’s status up in the air for week 8. If Mark is ruled out any time before Sunday Gus becomes a glorious play at his price!

Darwin Thompson KC vs. NYJ (26th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,000)

Kansas City Chiefs RB Darwin Thompson

Strictly a gut call here. We all know what’s going to happen in this one. KC will undoubtedly beat the hell out of the Jets. Hello garbage time for Darwin!

WIDE RECEIVER

Davante Adams GB vs. MIN (30th)(FD-$9,100)(DK-$8,800)

Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at WR!

Brandon Aiyuk SF @ SEA (32nd)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$5,800)

San Francisco 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk is a little too expensive for B&B but the price, match-up and work load is too sweet not to mention. Brandon caught 6 passes for 115 yards on Sunday. Furthermore, Deebo Samuel left with a hamstring injury and will, “miss some time” as HC Kyle Shanahan said in an interview after the game.

A.J. Green CIN vs. TEN (29th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$4,500)

Cincinnati Bengals WR A.J. Green

Green tied Tyler Boyd in targets on Sunday. This Cincinnati offense looks as if they’ve passed AJ by. Is that the truth? What do I know? Hopefully other DFS players think that and while AJ’s price has fallen below $6,000 the time to use him is now!

Jarvis Landry CLE vs. LV (23rd)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,600)

Cleveland Browns WR Jarvis Landry

Odell Beckham Jr. is out for the season. Need I say more?

Henry Ruggs III LV @ CLE (31st)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,900)

Las Vegas Raiders rookie WR Henry Ruggs III

Ruggs III has only three targets in each of his last three games. Fellow rookie wipeouts, Higgins, Lamb and Jefferson have all enjoyed breakouts and continued success. It’s now Henry’s turn! The breakout party is this Sunday in Cleveland. You’re all cordially invited!

Mercole Hardman KC vs. NYJ (12th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,700)

Kansas City Chiefs WR Mercole Hardman

Demarcus Robinson KC vs. NYJ (12th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$3,100)

Kansas City Chiefs WR Demarcus Robinson

I’m going to do a combo platter here with these two men. Both reasonably priced for a slaughter fest in week 8. Yeah you can grab Hill, who hasn’t had a 100 yard receiving game this season, or you can mix-n-match one of these guys! Choose wisely!

Rashard Higgins CLE vs. LV (23rd)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$4,200)

Cleveland Browns WR Rashard Higgins

Donovan Peoples-Jones CLE vs. LV (23rd)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$3,800)

Cleveland Browns rookie WR Donovan Peoples-Jones

What do we call a back-to-back combo platter? Have we entered buffet territory? No idea seeing how I’m making it all up as I go! If you scroll up and look at Landry’s profile that’s all we need to say. In the wake of OBJ’s injury rookie WR DPJ scored a TD. While Higgins has caught 10 of 11 targets for 149 yards and 2 TD’s. Not to sound rude but this offense, and Baker, look better without Odell.

Marcus Johnson IND @ DET (25th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$3,000)

Indianapolis Colts WR Marcus Johnson

Marcus led the team in targets, catches and receiving yards in week 7! Where did this guy come from? The Colts travel to Detroit Sunday and I wouldn’t be shocked to see MJ get another 6-7 targets. These are all high upside and meaningful targets too! For the minimum prices he’s locked and loaded!

Cole Beasley BUF vs. NE (13th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$5,300)

Buffalo Bills WR Cole Beasley

11 catches on 12 targets for 112 yards. 4 catches on 7 targets for 45 yards and a TD. Those are Cole’s last two stat lines. Clearly he’s a fantastic grab as a check down specialist in Buffalo! On Fanduel he’s averaging 11.2 fantasy points a game! What a fantastic floor for a guy at $5,300!

Darnell Mooney CHI vs. NO (20th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$3,500)

Chicago Bears rookie WR Darnell Mooney

The fantasy points will come for the rookie. I promise you! He’s operated as the Bears WR2 behind Allen Robinson. The Chicago Bears aren’t exactly the greatest show on turf but at 5-1 they are doing something right!

Jalen Guyton LAC @ DEN (16th)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$3,600)

Los Angeles Chargers rookie WR Jalen Guyton

Another game another long bomb TD for the kid! As rookie dynamo QB Justin Herbert develops and grows he’s taking everyone with him! Clearly there is a connection here! Lets explore it all and see where it goes!

 Denzel Mims NYJ @ KC (FD-$4,900)(DK-$3,200)

New York Jets rookie WR Denzel Mims

The highly touted rookie made an immediate impact in week 7. Catching four of his seven targets for 42yds. This Jet’s team doesn’t have much going on. The fact Mims is healthy and finally playing is a nice little nugget of optimism. I’d imagine he’s now their WR1. Like it or not. Good or bad.

Jalen Reagor PHI vs. DAL (27th)(FD-$5,600)(3,600)

Philadelphia Eagles rookie WR Jalen Reagor

Moments ago Eagles head coach, Doug Pederson, said Jalen is now back at practice! There are a few hurdles ahead for the rookie to play Sunday night. Each hurdle can be passed if the kid works hard and shows team doctors he’s healthy! A Sunday night match up vs. the hapless Dallas defense could be one heck of a welcome back party!

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce KC @ NYJ (17th)(FD-$7,900)(DK-$6,600)

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at TE!

Albert Okwuegbuam DEN vs. LAC (18th)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$2,800)

Denver Broncos rookie TE Albert Okwuegbunam

Did anyone else see this Sunday? Fant clearly isn’t 100% and his ankle is still bothering him. The rookie stepped out and did a good job of it! Looking ahead to week 8 the Chargers have given up 4 TD’s to opposing TE’s!

Donald Parham Jr. LAC @ DEN (12th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$3,000)

Los Angeles Chargers TE Donald Parham Jr.

Scroll up and read Jalen Guyton profile. Herbert is doing wonders for this team! He’s taking everybody to the promise land!

Will Dissly SEA vs. SF (8th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$2,800)

Seattle Seahawks TE Will Dissly

Nothing fun to say here. No good stats to mention. Punt play only. In the wake of the Chris Carson injury there is an off chance SEA might have to throw more. Making Will good for what? 2-3 receptions for 30-40 yards? Even that ambitious but not out of the question!

Durham Smythe MIA vs. LAR (22nd)(FD-$4,100)(DK-$2,500)

Miami Dolphins TE Durham Smythe

Do you trust me? Do you enjoy B&B? That’s good! Great news! Know let me sell you on Durham Smythe! This offense should look completely different with Tua at QB. I’m not saying better, just different. They always say a TE is a nice safety blanket for a rookie TE!

Here are two of my sample lines I’m going to use for week 8! Keep in mind these lines are for entertainment purposes! Please play responsible!

Fanduel 1p 11/1 MAIN

Also look for updated lines closer to lock on Sunday morning 11/1!

Draftkings 1p 11/1 MAIN

Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time WK7

Hammer Time WK8
10/25/20
Anthony Volanti

Washington Redskins WR Terry McLaurin

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! After going 3-3 on player props and picks, 1-1 on parlay plays, and 1-1 on first TD scorer bets in Week 6, my cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 7 is as follows:
· Player Props and Game Picks: 75-79, hitting on 49% of bets
· Parlay Plays: 4-3
· First TD Scorer Bets: 4-5-4*
*“Ties” indicate player scored later in the game (winning wager back with DraftKings Primetime 1st TD Scorer Promo)

Lots of action to get to today nut let’s begin with a quick recap of the Thursday night game.

TNF Player Props and Bets:
NYG @ PHI: 5-5
· PHI -2.5 (lost)
· Over 44.5 total (lost)
· Devonta Freeman under 54.5 rushing yards (won)
· Daniel Jones over 20 rushing yards (won)
· Carson Wentz over 15 rushing yards (lost)
· DeSean Jackson over 34.5 receiving yards (lost)
· Boston Scott over 39.5 rushing yards (won)
· Travis Fulgham over 4 receptions (won)
· Travis Fulgham over 44.5 receiving yards (won)
· Travis Fulgham to score (lost)
The Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New York Giants by a single point in an ugly divisional game Thursday night. It was perhaps the most frustrating win I’ve ever witnessed as an Eagles fan. Jake Elliot missed a 29-yard chip shot field goal and the Eagles failed to convert on a 2-point conversion late in the 4th quarter, which busted both the spread and over total points bets. Carson Wentz and DeSean Jackson both fell 1 yard shy of their player props as well. The Eagles (2-4-1) laughably sit atop the historically bad NFC East heading into Sunday of Week 7.

But enough wallowing in self-pity. It’s time to drop the hammer on these best bets and win some money. LET’S GOOO!

Sunday Spreads and Player Props:

DAL @ WAS:
· Terry McLaurin over 72.5 receiving yards (-165 at DraftKings)
“Scary” Terry McLaurin is averaging over 80 yards per game this season and over 13 yards per reception. Meanwhile, the maligned secondary of the Dallas Cowboys is giving up over 160 yards to receivers per week and over 100 yards to the opposing team’s top target. This may be my favorite bet of the week. Hand me Thor’s hammer, please.

BUF @ NYJ

BUF WR Stefon Diggs

· BUF -10 (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Stefan Diggs over 75.5 receiving yards (-155 at DraftKings; over 78.5 -110 at FanDuel)
· Cole Beasley over 56.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
The New York Jets are far and away the worst team in the NFL. The last time these two teams met in Week 1, the New York’s secondary gave up a combined 214 yards to Stefon Diggs, John Brown, and Cole Beasley. Brown has been ruled out for the grudge match, giving a boost to the other two’s projections. Diggs enters the game averaging over 90 yards per game and went over this line last time with 86 yards. Beasley has flown under the radar with 60 yards per game and put up 56 in Week 1. The only way these two don’t smash is if the Buffalo Bills get such a big early lead that they pull their starters or salt the game with the run.

CAR @ NO

New Orleans Saints RB Alvin Kamara

· Alvin Kamara receptions over 5.5 receptions (-125 at Bet MGM)
· Alvin Kamara over 54.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
Michael Thomas was aiming for a Week 5 return from his high ankle sprain but missed that game due to disciplinary actions. He was fully recovered coming out of the Saints Week 6 BYE, but then pulled a hamstring. He’ll now miss his fifth straight game, keeping Alvin Kamara positioned as the focal point of the Saints offense. Their opponent, the Carolina Panthers, have given up the 4th most fantasy points to the running back position this season. It’s a perfect storm. Hammer the over.

GB @ HOU
· GB -3 (boosted to -110 at DraftKings)
· Aaron Jones or Jamal Williams over rushing yards (not available at the time of this writing)
The Houston Texans have arguably the worst rush defense in the league this season, giving up an average of 157.5 yards per game and four 100-yard rushers. Last week they were trampled under Derrick Henry, who galloped for 212 yards. Aaron Jones will feast—if he plays. If he doesn’t, his carries will shift to Jamaal Williams with rookie A.J. Dillon feasting on the scraps in a larger-than-usual role.

CLE @ CIN
· Kareem Hunt over 86.5 rushing yards (-110 on FanDuel)
Cincinnati’s defense is giving up an average of just over 100 rushing yards per game this season—middle of the pack. However, the maligned defensive line of the Bengals gave up over 200 yards in their first game against the Browns. Vegas has set this player prop right where Hunt finished in that contest with 86 yards, but he was playing second fiddle to Nick Chubb, who chalked up over 120 yards as Cleveland’s primary back. With Chubb still on injured reserve, Hunt should smash.

DET @ ATL
· Kenny Golladay over 74.5 receiving yards (-110 at DraftKings)
You know the drill here. We hammer receivers facing Atlanta’s abysmal secondary. The Falcons are giving up 188.5 yards per game to wideouts and 8 receivers have gone over this line this year. Kenny Golladay has only started three games this season, but he’s clearly Matthew Stafford’s top target. He’s racked up 57, 62, and 105 yards on 16 total receptions. The line is higher than I’d like, but he should still hit.

TB @ LV
· Josh Jacobs under 54.5 rushing yards (not available at the time of this writing)
· Darren Waller over 4.5 receptions (not available at the time of this writing)
Josh Jacobs is averaging 75 rushing yards per game with a season low of 48 yards in Week 4, but Tampa Bay boasts the best run defense in the league, giving up an average of just 40 yards per game. This is not a product of scheduling. The Buccaneers have held several high-profile backs in check this season, including Alvin Kamara (12 carries, 16 yards), Melvin Gordon (8 carries, 26 yards), David Montgomery (10 carries, 29 yards), and Aaron Jones (10 carries, 15 yards). The most yards they’ve given up to a single rusher this season is Christian McCaffrey, who they still held to under 60 yards. Making matters worse for Josh Jacobs, the Las Vegas Raiders are dealing with a COVID-19 issue that’s left the status of their entire starting offensive line in jeopardy. I think the lack of ground game will force Derek Carr to go to the air. He’ll check it down often to his favorite target, tight end Darren Waller, who has averaged 7 catches a game (more if you exclude his 2-catch day when he was shut down by the Patriots). The NFL has flexed the game out of its primetime Sunday Night Football slot in case it needs to be postponed (this is likely the reason that oddsmakers have yet to publish player props), so keep an eye on that. Once the lines drop… drop the hammer!

SNF Spreads and Player Props:
SEA @ ARI
· DeAndre Hopkins over 75.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Christian Kirk over 46.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Chris Carson to score 1st TD (+650 at DraftKings)*
· Total points over 54.5 (-113 at DraftKings)
Seattle’s secondary holds the unwanted distinction of being the worst secondary in the league thus far, giving up more yards and fantasy points than any other to the wide receiver position. They are historically bad, giving up 282 yards per game and a whopping 94 yards per wide receiver faced this season. That is not a typo. Wide receivers are averaging almost 100 yards each against the Seahawks. Of the 15 wide receivers they have faced, only 3 were held under 65 yards. Jamal Adams has been ruled out for a third straight game, which certainly won’t help matters. This week, they face their toughest task yet: containing DeAndre Hopkins, who leads all wide receivers this year with 601 yards through 6 games. Christian Kirk has quietly emerged as the Cardinals second receiver. His production has increased each week and he is averaging 60 yards per game over his last 4 starts. Get ready to see some fireworks in primetime.

Parlay Plays of the Week:
· 3-Team Money Line Parlay: BUF, GB, and KC

That’s all for now. Follow me at @a_volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and check back next week for more best bets and player props.

Disclaimer: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here!

NASCAR – The Setup – 102520

The Setup – AutoTrader EchoPark Automotive 500
By Tyler Miller
@rickybobby_jr

This weekend, NASCAR heads to Texas for a 500 mile race at Texas Motor Speedway. Earlier this year, Austin Dillon was able to stay out front after using pit strategy to win the race and earn an entry into the NASCAR playoffs. Track position will be key, as it was last Sunday at Kansas where it was nearly impossible to pass the leader once they were cleared after a restart. Kevin Harvick starts on the pole position and has won the last three fall races at Texas. Will he lead every lap en route to four straight on Sunday? Let’s get started.

Race Distance: 334 laps, Stage 1 ends on lap 105, Stage 2 ends on lap 210.
Lineup Lock 3:30 pm eastern Sunday
Spring Winner: Austin Dillon (Started 21st)
Spring Pole Sitter: Aric Almirola (Finished 10th)
Last year’s winner: (Spring/Fall) Denny Hamlin (Started 6th)/ Kevin Harvick (Started 1st)
Last year’s pole sitter: Jimmie Johnson (Finished 5th)/ Kevin Harvick (Finished 1st)

Prior race winners:
2018 Fall: Kevin Harvick (3rd)
2018 Spring: Kyle Busch (8th)
2017 Fall: Kevin Harvick (3rd)
2017 Spring: Jimmie Johnson (24th)

Kansas Recap:
What went right?

Kansas was a complete debacle. From last week’s article, Kyle Busch was the best play, followed by Alex Bowman, John Hunter Nemechek, and Michael McDowell. Busch scored the 3rd most points on Fan Duel with his 5th place finish. Bowman finished 3rd in the race, 5th in Fan Duel scoring. Nemechek and McDowell were 17th and 19th which was solid, given their starting positions and salary. Matt Kenseth was highly owned and finished dead last. Avoiding him last week was the right move.

What went wrong?
It seemed like Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin took turns having issues and killing my lineup. Jones had a problem, rebounded to get on the lead lap and then Hamlin had a problem and just as Hamlin was able to get back on the lead lap, Jones had another problem. It was messy, but both cars showed top 5 speed at times during the race. Jones finished stage 1 5th before having problems in stage 2. Hamlin finished stage 1 3rd and won stage 2 before having problems in the final stage. Jimmie Johnson also had problems late and completely killed any hopes of cashing last week.

What Vegas thinks (Opening lines via MGM)
No surprise, Harvick is the odds on favorite to win Texas for the 4th consecutive fall race. If I’m betting this, I’m looking long and hard at Kyle Busch at 12-1. This has been a good track for Busch over the years and 12-1 seems like too good of odds for Kyle who is super motivated to win his first race of the year and continue his streak of winning in every season of his career.

Kevin Harvick 13-5
Denny Hamlin 5-1
Joey Logano 7-1
Chase Elliott 10-1
Martin Truex Jr. 10-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Kyle Busch 12-1
Brad Keselowski 16-1
Erik Jones 18-1
Kurt Busch 20-1

Driver Ratings at Texas:
1. Kyle Busch 102.4
2. Matt Kenseth 102.3
3. Jimmie Johnson 101.3
4. Kevin Harvick 97.8
5. Erik Jones 94.3
6. Martin Truex Jr. 93.4
7. Ryan Blaney 91.4
8. Kurt Busch 90.5
9. Joey Logano 90.0
10. Chase Elliott 88.6
11. Denny Hamlin 88.6
12. Tyler Reddick 88.1
13. Brad Keselowski 85.6
14. Clint Bowyer 84.5
15. William Byron 82.3

Average Running Position
1. Matt Kenseth 9.727
2. Erik Jones 10.865
3. Kyle Busch 10.915
4. Kevin Harvick 11.947
5. Jimmie Johnson 12.270
6. Martin Truex Jr. 12.463
7. Chase Elliott 12.777
8. Kurt Busch 13.156
9. William Byron 13.454
10. Denny Hamlin 14.456
11. Joey Logano 14.624
12. Tyler Reddick 15.246
13. Clint Bowyer 15.286
14. Ryan Blaney 15.690
15. Brad Keselowski 16.430

Laps Led
1. Jimmie Johnson 1152 (11.1 percent of laps run)
2. Kyle Busch 959 (9.9)
3. Matt Kenseth 733 (8.5)
4. Brad Keselowski 654 (8.2)
5. Kevin Harvick 652 (6.3)
6. Martin Truex Jr. 620 (6.2)
7. Joey Logano 465 (5.8)
8. Ryan Blaney 383 (10.5)
9. Kurt Busch 383 (10.5)
10. Denny Hamlin 288 (3.0)
11. Clint Bowyer 124 (1.2)
12. Erik Jones 110 (4.1)
13. Aric Almirola 100 (1.6)

Spring Top 10:
1. Austin Dillon
2. Tyler Reddick
3. Joey Logano
4. Kyle Busch
5. Kevin Harvick
6. Erik Jones
7. Ryan Blaney
8. Kurt Busch
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Aric Almirola

2019 Fall Top 10:
1. Kevin Harvick
2. Aric Almirola
3. Daniel Suarez
4. Joey Logano
5. Alex Bowman
6. Martin Truex Jr.
7. Kyle Busch
8. Ryan Blaney
9. Kurt Busch
10. Erik Jones

2019 Spring Top 10:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Clint Bowyer
3. Daniel Suarez
4. Erik Jones
5. Jimmie Johnson
6. William Byron
7. Aric Almirola
8. Kevin Harvick
9. Kurt Busch
10. Kyle Busch

2018 Fall Top 10:
1. Kevin Harvick
2. Ryan Blaney
3. Joey Logano
4. Erik Jones
5. Kyle Larson
6. Chase Elliott
7. Kurt Busch
8. Aric Almirola
9. Martin Truex Jr.
10. Austin Dillon

Kevin Harvick ($14,000/11,000) With wins in each of the last three fall races at Texas, Harvick is the top play. Starting first, I expect Harvick to lead a lot of laps and be competitive throughout the day. There is some risk here because of the first starting position, but I anticipate Harvick to be highly owned which will bode well in the rare event that he has an issue (Not counting Daytona and Talladega, Harvick hasn’t had a bad finish since he finished a lap down, 26th at Homestead on June 14th).

Kyle Busch ($11,300/9,300) I’m high on Kyle Busch this week. I think this team wins a race before the end of the season and I think he has a great chance at Texas. Kyle has 3 wins at Texas but they all came in the spring (2013, 2016, and 2018). He led 11 laps and finished 4th in the spring. This team has been running well of late (not counting Talladega or the Roval) finishing 7th at Darlington, 6th at Richmond, 2nd at Bristol, 6th at Las Vegas, and 5th last Sunday at Kansas. I think Kyle leads some laps and finishes top 5, maybe even top 3 with a chance to win.

Denny Hamlin ($13,300/10,800) I’m torn on Hamlin because his issue ended up really costing me at Kansas last weekend. Hamlin has shown strength at intermediate tracks this year but he finished a lap down in 20th position earlier this year at Texas. Hamlin had a good car last week at Kansas, winning a stage and leading 58 laps. I think he can do well at Texas, but the stats don’t really back him up.

Matt Kenseth ($7,200/7,100) We avoided a bullet last week by fading Kenseth at Kansas. Kenseth started 30th and was highly owned (over 50% in cash games). He got in a wreck early, not of his own doing, and finished last. This week he starts 32nd and I am in on it, particularly in cash games where if he is 50% owned again, he has to be played because he has top 15 potential. Unlike Jimmie Johnson, Kenseth’s salary enables you to use him and still play 3 top guys that have a chance to win the race.

Joey Logano ($13,000/9,800) I think Logano is a nice alternate to Harvick if you are looking to be contrarian. I wouldn’t do it in cash, but in a single entry contest, or a limited multi-entry environment, I like using Logano and the next three guys I have listed (Bowman, Jones, Johnson), because they will be lowered owned and if everybody plays Harvick and Kenseth and you play Logano, Bowman, and Johnson, you could have a clear path to the top of the board.

Alex Bowman ($10,000/9,100) Bowman has been solid all year long. I like him this week, though it’s a little bit risky since he is starting 5th and he finished 30th at Texas earlier this year. For what it’s worth, Bowman started 5th and finished 5th in this race a year ago. He is also coming off a 3rd place finish at Kansas last week. I like Bowman to run inside the top 10 and if he can stay out of trouble, he could be a solid contender for a 5th-8th place finish Sunday.

Erik Jones ($10,700/8,900) Texas has been a good track for Erik Jones in his career with 6 straight top 10s coming into Sunday’s race. Jones has completed all but 1 lap in his career at Texas and led 110 laps in 8 races (leading laps in 4 of his last 5 races). Starting 17th, Jones could be a solid play on Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson ($9,800/9,400) I’m not sure what to do with Jimmie Johnson. Starting 26th, Johnson seems like he’d be a good play at a track where he has dominated in the past. Johnson has 7 wins at Texas, most recently in the spring of 2017. However, these are his Texas finishes since his last win: 27th, 35th, 15th, 5th, 34th, 26th. If Johnson was the same price as Kenseth I’d probably play him over Matt, but since he is 2k more expensive, I like Matt over Jimmie, but if you are doing multiple lineups, you need some exposure to him.

Corey LaJoie ($4,000/5,6000) Corey Lajoie is way too cheap on Fan Duel. LaJoie finished 16th at Texas earlier this year. I don’t expect a top 20 finish, but I would take any positive differential from a 4k driver and be happy. If you are looking for value, I like LaJoie, Yeley, or Preece (DK only). I think LaJoie can score more points than Yeley. I think Preece scores more than both of them, but his salary on Fan Duel makes him less attractive.

I like a lineup build with 3 guys who have a chance at leading the most laps and winning the race, one super value, and Matt Kenseth. Good luck to all our subscribers today!

Bottom of the Barrel WK7 (NFL DFS)

Bottom of the Barrel WK7
10/20/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Our words are powerful. Our words have meaning. They can hurt others. They can help others. Are you part of the problem? Or are you part of the solution?

I’ve never had a problem editing an article or admitting when I was wrong. What does one have to do with the other? In all my years I’ve never edited B&B. I’ve never gone back in after it was published to add players. I’ve never gone back in to delete my words either. Once it’s published it’s history. It’s set in stone right? For the first time ever I’ve decided to make an edit to Bottom of the Barrel. Not subtract but to add! With all the injury news today I felt compelled to do so!

Being and honest and transparent are two ideals we need as human beings. Being open and honest as a fantasy sports writer is imperative.

With week 7 of the NFL season upon us a few things are becoming clear. Waiver wire adds, DFS and writing are becoming mundane and exhausting. We’ve officially entered into the quitting portion of fantasy football.

Fantasy football teams are being abandoned, fantasy football writers/podcasters are taking steps back and the grind of the constant work is draining us all. What we’re doing here is clearly a marathon and in no way a sprint. It’s a year round type commitment.

Let me rewind back all the way to March when I become fully entrenched on Twitter. Large groups of people were constantly writing, ranking and broadcasting. It was the off season, there were no deadlines to hit and content didn’t have a expiration date.

Now, lets fast forward to the present time where our content is only relevant for a few days or a week tops. You either get into a strict schedule or you’re lost, passed by. It’s heartbreaking. I truly want us all to succeed. We can all make it. Unfortunately that’s not the case. People are giving up before the miracle happens.

I’ve long said the best way to get along with our writing and broadcasting is to help others. Reach out and share as much content as you can. We all deserve a millions views. A million downloads and a million comments. That’s not realistic and most times it doesn’t go our way.

Shout out to everyone who writes and broadcasts on a daily basis. Shout out to those of you have stepped back. We all have our reasons right? Shout out to anybody who has made a healthy decision here. I love you. I got you!

QUARTERBACK

Not new anymore but here’s the most expensive player at QB in week 7. Should help put B&B prices into perspective!

Patrick Mahomes KC @ DEN (24th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$7,400)

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at QB!

Ben Roethlisberger PIT @ TEN (27th)(FD-$7,400)(DK-$6,600)

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger

Big Ben didn’t have to do much vs. the Browns last week. However, he continued to strengthen his bond with Claypool and James Washington! I’m fully expecting Ben to crank up the volume on Sunday. With volume comes points!

Ryan Tannehill TEN vs. PIT (5th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,200)

Tennessee Titan QB Ryan Tannehill

See what happens when Fanduel doesn’t catch up? What the hell are they doing? Tanny is completely 100% a must start week-to-week now right? You bet your ass he is!

Matthew Stafford DET @ ATL (32nd)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,500)

Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford

Can the Lions get a three game winning streak going? You bet your ass they can! Careful how many times you bet you ass here. Stafford didn’t do much Sunday vs. the JAX and rightfully so seeing how their ground game was lights out. I’m fully expecting an entire air show in ATL Sunday!

Teddy Bridgewater CAR @ NO (29th)(FD-$6,800)(DK-$5,800)

Carolina Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater

Ah Teddy is back with us here at B&B! Teddy has played well in spots this season. That’s what we’re looking to find here at B&B. He’s been very efficient with his passes although the points haven’t added up as much as we’d like. How many of you buy into revenge games? I wouldn’t say this one qualifies seeing how New Orleans took a chance on him and treated him well. Regardless, Teddy B will want to show them what they’re missing!

Kyle Allen WSH vs. DAL (22nd)(FD-$6,700)(DK-$5,200)

Washington QB Kyle Allen

This is a classic of match-up over the actual player. Forget that you’re spending fictitious money on Kyle Allen and just skip ahead to the mouth watering match-up. The Cowboys are in trouble here. Arizona made them look inept and silly. Here’s hoping we can capture some of that magic with Kyle Allen. Can’t believe I just typed that…

RUNNING BACK

Not new anymore but here’s the most expensive player at RB in week 7. Should help put B&B prices into perspective!

Christian McCaffrey CAR v NO (15th)(FD-$10,000)(DK-$8,300)

Carolina Panthers RB Christian McCaffery

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at RB!

D’Andre Swift DET @ ATL (18th)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$5,400)

Detroit Lions rookie RB D’Andre Swift

It was a real joy to watch the Lions play well and watch Swift show out! After a performance like that it leaves us all asking for an encore! D’Andre should very much give us one Sunday in Atlanta!

Justin Jackson LAC vs. JAX (28th)(FD-$6,100)(DK-$4,900)

LA Chargers RB Justin Jackson

Mr. Jackson had 20 total touches Sunday vs. the Saints. He also out-touched Joshua Kelley 20-12 and out-produced him yardage wise. If you look at the slate Kelley is a touch more expensive than Justin. It’s a no brainer for me here in week 7.

Giovani Bernard CIN v CLE (14th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$4,500)

Cincinnati Bengals RB Giovani Bernard

Joe Mixon has already been declared out. So in turn that pushes Gio up to their RB1. If you remember correctly Gio was the starting RB in Cincinnati for I believe three maybe four seasons. In 2013 Gio rushed 170 times for 695 yards scoring 5 times. He also caught the ball 56 times for 514 yards and 3 touchdowns. Look I’m not going go through his entire career just letting you know Gio is very capable of playing RB in the NFL.

Samaje Perine CIN v CLE (14th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,000)

Cincinnati Bengal RB Samaje Perine

Maybe this one is little wild. Maybe I’m just excited that some value has been made available. He’s merely a special teams player at this point but we have no clue how the targets and touches will shake out. 6 or 7 carries and a reception or two is what I think he gets Sunday. This is what B&B is all about! Do you have the guts?

A.J. Dillion GB @ HOU (31st)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,000)

Green Bay Packers rookie RB AJ Dillon

Word broke this afternoon that Aaron Jones suffered a minor calf injury sometime in the past few days. This is purely speculative seeing how he’s the third string back in GB. It’s actually quite simple, if Jones plays there is no room for AJ. Pay close attention this over the weekend!

Antonio Gibson WSH vs. DAL (24th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,000)

Washington rookie RB Antonio Gibson

JD McKisson (FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,600)

Something something Dallas’ defense is awful. Something something Gibson/McKissic are splitting touches. Nothing more then a plug and play here!

Zach Moss BUF @ NYJ (26th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,200)

Buffalo Bills RB Zach Moss

Was tough sledding for Devin and Moss Sunday. Obviously the Kansas City Chiefs are at the top of the NFL food chain so I wouldn’t think too much into it. Looking ahead the Bills travel to the Jets and oh boy is it going to be bad news for them and Adam Gase. Who here thinks the Bills get up big, like 21+ points, on Sunday and we see a steady dose of Moss in the second half? Exactly! That’s what I thought!

Jamaal Williams GB @ HOU (31st)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$4,000)

Green Bay Packers RB Jamal Williams

Did you see what Derrick Henry did to the Texans on Sunday? 200+ rushing yards and 2 TD’s. Once of which that ended the game. Henry single handedly took the Texans soul with him after this one. Aaron Jones is the RB1 here in this one but lets get wild and roster J-Will! Lot’s of room to run on a soul-less defense.

La’Mical Perine NYJ vs. BUF (19th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$4,200)

New York Jets rookie RB La’Mical Perine

I respect Frank Gore very much but the Jets would be wise to get the rookie involved. Adam Gase is so bad, “how bad is he Chris?”, he’s starting to effect our DFS decisions now too. Absolutely awful!

Jeremy McNicols TEN vs. PIT (3rd)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,000)

Tennessee Titans RB Jeremy McNicols

Not an ideal match-up for the kid. Henry is no doubt the unquestioned RB1 in Tennessee but in today’s day and age can he realistically carry the ball 30 times?

WIDE RECEIVER

DeAndre Hopkins ARZ vs. SEA (32nd)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$8,200)

Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at WR!

Mike Williams LAC vs. JAX (18th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$4,7000)

LA Chargers WR Mike Williams

That-a-boy Mike! He’s finally come alive. Albeit after Keenan Allen left with injury. Regardless the Chargers are fresh as a daisy coming off their bye week and with studly rookie QB Justin Herbert playing this well, plenty of targets and touches to go around!

Marvin Jones DET @ ATL (28th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$4,400)

Detroit Lions WR Marvin Jones Jr.

The volume may be lower now that Kenny G is fully healthy, Swift is getting his and Stafford is looking TJ Hock’s way 4-5 times a game but Marvin is Marvin! He’s always been super efficient with his targets. At a sub-6k price tag and this match-up I’m jumping all over it!

Tee Higgins CIN vs. CLE (29th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,300)

Cincinnati Bengals rookie WR Tee Higgins

Life comes at you fast folks! I full expect Tee to be the next graduate here at the B&B DFS academy. The chemistry that’s developing here between Burrow and Higgins in undeniable! Tee continues to see targets. Continues to put up fantastic numbers. Tee and Burrow are on the fast track to super-stardom. Will it translate into real life wins? Not my area of expertise. Long as the fantasy points are accumulating and the money is flowing who has time to worry about real life wins/loses?

Keelan Cole JAX @ LAC (15th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,700)

Jacksonville Jags WR Keelan Cole

Cole has been a pleasant surprise for us DFS players. He continues to rack up receptions, yardage and even touchdowns yet his price remains low. He’s put up 100+ yards or scored in four of his last six games. It’s such a nice floor for the price that you’d be a fool not to roster him!

Tim Patrick DEN vs. KC (5th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$4,600)

Denver Broncos WR Time Patrick

Remember when I said life comes at you fast like two minutes ago? What about how shocking and totally unpredictable fantasy football is? If I told six months ago that Tim Patrick was going to be the Broncos WR1 heading into week 7? I would’ve been laughed out of the business. Tim has had back-to-back 100yd receiving games and is absolutely a threat to take it home on any given play. Very tough task ahead vs. KC but his volume alone makes him a play!

Christian Kirk ARZ vs. SEA (32nd)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,900)

Arizona Cardinals WR Christian Kirk

Have the Cardinals finally put it together? Are they clicking? Hitting on all cylinders? Kirk was a popular sleeper add in our seasonal formats so naturally we assumed he’d be a great DFS play week after week! You know what they say when we assume? Makes an ass of u and me. Get it? Kirk has come alive the last few weeks and Seattle comes to town giving up a ton of points to opposing WR’s. Boom or bust? I’d bet BOOM yet again on Sunday!

Corey Davis TEN vs. PIT (25th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,800)

Tennessee Titans WR Corey Davis

Corey was finally playing well! He was helping us and we liked it! Then he was added to the COVID-IR. Corey is back now for a match-up that isn’t that scary when you look into it! Will he get enough volume? Or enough targets to make him a viable option this week? I’m guessing 5-6 targets and 3-4 receptions. Fortune favors the bold!

Tre’Quan Smith NO vs. CAR (4th)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,000)

New Orleans Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith

Tre’Quan is no stranger to B&B! Michael Thomas has been ruled out and so has Emmanuel Sanders. Mr. Smith has now been thrust into a predominate role Sunday in New Orleans!

Gabriel Davis BUF @ NYJ (13th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$3,600)

Buffalo Bills rookie WR Gabriel Davis

Gabe is no stranger to us here at B&B and given the match-up along with his price, undeniable to me! Roster the kid! 75yds and TD in week 7?

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce KC @ DEN (13th)(FD-$7,900)(DK-$6,300)

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at TE!

Logan Thomas WSH vs. DAL (26th)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$3,500)

Washington Football Team TE Logan Thomas

Have you heard how awful the Cowboys defense is yet?

Anthony Firkser TEN vs. PIT (9th)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$3,000)

Tennessee Titans TE Anthony Firkser

Keep an eye on Jonnu Smith and his injury designation. He went down Sunday and didn’t return. Tony went wild in his absence! 8 receptions 113 yards and a TD! If Jonnu is out I’m telling you now this is a slam dunk play. Probably my favorite play to be honest!

Drew Sample CIN vs. CLE (22nd)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$3,200)

Cincinnati Bengal TE Drew Sample

Look, if you’re reading this then you know what’s going on day to day in the fantasy community I’d assume. Drew hasn’t done a thing for quite some time. He put up zeros in all statistical categories Sunday week 6. That’s both good and bad. Are you a glass half full kind of person? Or a glass half empty kind of person? He had 0.0 Sunday, so there’s no where to go but up right?

Dawson Knox BUF @ NYJ (20th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$3,300)

Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox

I like to pick on bad teams. it’s the not so very secret to my DFS success. Knox has the Q tag currently but keep in mind as you’re building lines for week 7!

Harrison Bryant CLE @ CIN (14th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,000)

Cleveland Browns rookie TE Harrison Bryant

Not to be rude to Harrison but this is just the process of elimination. Starting TE Austin Hooper came down with appendicitis. David Njouk is just there so that leaves the rookie looking at an expanded role! If you’re like me, punting TE, this selection is looking better and better by the hour!

I’ve always enjoyed reading waiver wire articles with a “graduated” portion of the article but that’s not my style. I do want to mention Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Chase Claypool. Hope to see them playing for a long time!

Here are two of my sample lines I’m going to use for week 7! Keep in mind these lines are for entertainment purposes! Please play responsible!

Fanduel 10/25 1p MAIN

Also look for updated lines closer to lock on Sunday morning 10/25!

Draftkings 10/15 1p MAIN

Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

NASCAR – The Setup – 101820

The Setup – Hollywood Casino 400
By Tyler Miller
@rickybobby_jr

This weekend NASCAR heads to Kansas Speedway for a triple header playoff weekend with the Trucks, Xfinity, and Cup series in action. Kansas Speedway is an intermediate, 1.5 mile, track. After a wild couple of weeks at Talladega and the Charlotte ROVAL, we are back to a “normal” race where I recommend playing mostly cash games and single entry tournaments. Chase Elliott will start from the pole on Sunday as Denny Hamlin will try to win his third straight race at Kansas from the 7th starting position. Let’s get started.

Race Distance: 267 laps, Stage 1 ends on lap 80, Stage 2 ends on lap 160.
Lineup Lock 2:30 pm eastern Sunday
Spring Winner: Denny Hamlin (Started 10th)
Spring Pole Sitter: Kevin Harvick (Finished 4th)
Last year’s winner: Denny Hamlin (Started 23rd)
Last year’s pole sitter: Daniel Hemric (Finished 31st)

Prior race winners:
2019 Spring: Brad Keselowski (4th)
2018 Fall: Chase Elliott (13th)
2018 Spring: Kevin Harvick (1st)
2017 Fall: Martin Truex Jr. (1st)
2017 Spring: Martin Truex Jr. (3rd)

Roval Recap:
What went right?

I would summarize the Roval by saying “So close, yet so far away.” Chase Elliott was my top play on Sunday. He led 27laps, won the race, and scored the second most points on Fan Duel behind Ryan Blaney. Clint Bowyer was a solid play, leading 9 laps and finishing 10th. Jimmie Johnson and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. were good plays, finishing 8th and 9th respectively in Fan Duel scoring. It was close, but it wasn’t a good day overall.

What went wrong?
I should have written up Ryan Blaney. My most difficult decision in my personal lineup on Sunday was between Bowyer, Blaney, and Michael McDowell. I ended up writing Bowyer and McDowell up in the article, and I played McDowell which completely killed my lineup. I needed to play Blaney. It was almost too obvious. I also completely missed on Cole Custer which would have been a fantastic play in tournaments. I thought McDowell was a must play and he was doing well until he spun out twice on the same lap late in the race.

My Fan Duel Lineup was Elliott, Johnson, Bell, Stenhouse, and McDowell which scored 203.3 and failed to cash.
My Draft Kings Lineup was Elliott, Johnson, Bell, Stenhouse, McDowell, and Buescher which scored 228.5 and also failed to cash.

What Vegas thinks (Opening lines via MGM)
Hamlin and Harvick are tied atop the list at 17-4. I prefer Hamlin over Harvick, in fact, I would bet Truex over Harvick on Sunday. My favorite longshot for Sunday would be Alex Bowman at 22-1. Bowman made the round of 8 and knows that wining a race is probably his only hope of racing for a championship at Phoenix. Bowman has been solid at times at 1.5 mile tracks over the past two seasons. Clint Bowyer at 50-1 would also be a great storyline as this is his last race at his home track.
Denny Hamlin 17-4
Kevin Harvick 17-4
Martin Truex Jr. 5-1
Chase Elliott 13-2
Brad Keselowski 8-1
Ryan Blaney 11-1
Joey Logano 14-1
Kyle Busch 14-1

Driver Ratings at Kansas:
1. Kevin Harvick 108.6
2. Matt Kenseth 101.4
3. Jimmie Johnson 100.9
4. Martin Truex Jr. 100.7
5. Chase Elliott 95.2
6. Ryan Blaney 95.0
7. Brad Keselowski 92.8
8. Kyle Busch 92.6
9. Denny Hamlin 90.4
10. Erik Jones 89.4
11. Kurt Busch 88.6
12. Joey Logano 87.4
13. Tyler Reddick 83.3
14. Cole Custer 80.9
15. Clint Bowyer 80.3

Average Running Position
1. Kevin Harvick 8.906
2. Ryan Blaney 9.750
3. Matt Kenseth 11.009
4. Martin Truex Jr. 11.215
5. Jimmie Johnson 11.289
6. Erik Jones 12.294
7. Chase Elliott 12.294
8. Brad Keselowski 12.645
9. Denny Hamlin 13.004
10. Kyle Busch 13.056
11. Tyler Reddick 13.870
12. Kurt Busch 14.196
13. Joey Logano 15.234
14. Cole Custer 16.026
15. Clint Bowyer 16.995

Laps Led
1. Kevin Harvick 816 (12.3% of laps run)
2. Martin Truex Jr 803 (12.6)
3. Matt Kenseth 760 (13.0)
4. Jimmie Johnson 581 (8.8)
5. Joey Logano 431 (7.3)
6. Kyle Busch 380 (6.0)
7. Denny Hamlin 284 (4.5)
8. Kurt Busch 267 (4.0)
9. Brad Keselowski 247 (4.4)
10. Ryan Blaney 171 (5.8)

Spring Top 10:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Brad Keselowski
3. Martin Truex Jr.
4. Kevin Harvick
5. Erik Jones
6. Aric Almirola
7. Cole Custer
8. Alex Bowman
9. Kurt Busch
10. William Byron

2019 Fall Top 10:
1. Denny Hamlin
2. Chase Elliott
3. Kyle Busch
4. Kurt Busch
5. William Byron
6. Martin Truex Jr.
7. Erik Jones
8. Clint Bowyer
9. Kevin Harvick
10. Jimmie Johnson

2019 Spring Top 10:
1. Brad Keselowski
2. Alex Bowman
3. Erik Jones
4. Chase Elliott
5. Clint Bowyer
6. Jimmie Johnson
7. Kurt Busch
8. Kyle Larson
9. Tyler Reddick
10. Chris Buescher

2018 Fall Top 10:
1. Chase Elliott
2. Kyle Busch
3. Kyle Larson
4. Erik Jones
5. Martin Truex Jr.
6. Brad Keselowski
7. Ryan Blaney
8. Joey Logano
9. Alex Bowman
10. Aric Almirola

Denny Hamlin ($13,500/10,600) Hamlin is my pick to win the race. I’m not going out on much of a ledge, Hamlin has ran well at intermediate tracks dating back to the first race at Kansas this summer (which he won). Hamlin is starting 7th, I’d expect a strong showing from all the Gibbs cars on Sunday.

Martin Truex Jr. ($12,500/11,000) Truex’s pricing is interesting because he is cheaper than Hamlin on Fan Duel and more expensive on Draft Kings. Truex has had success at Kansas with laps led in each of his past two races at the track including a 3rd place finish in the first race this year. I think Hamlin is a solid pivot away from Hamlin, but I like Hamlin over Truex.

Kyle Busch ($11,200/9,900) Kyle Busch is a must play on both sites for Kansas. Busch is starting 20th and despite the lackluster season he is experiencing (he was eliminated from the playoffs last week), he is still motivated to go after wins. Busch has one win at Kasnas (Spring of 2016) and 9 top 10 finishes in his past 11 races at the track. I like Kyle to compete inside the top 5 and be a top 3 points scorer in DFS on Sunday.

Erik Jones ($10,200/8,400) Kansas is a really good track for Erik Jones. Jones is close to announcing plans for the 2021 season as he will not be back in the 20 car next year (probably heading to the 43 to replace Bubba Wallace). After missing the playoffs, Jones has put together really good finishes during the playoffs: 4th at Darlington, 22nd at Richmond, 3rd at Bristol, 8th at Las Vegas, 2nd at Talladega, and 3rd last week at the Roval. Jones has finished inside the top 10 in his last 5 races at Kansas, including 3 top 5 finishes. Starting 11th, I think so DFS players will overlook Jones on Sunday. There is limited potential for differential points, but I like Jones to finish 4th-8th on Sunday.

Alex Bowman ($11,000/8,600) I would put Alex Bowman in the same boat as Erik Jones but with more risk of negative differential. Bowman is starting 6th and could easily run inside the top 10 all race long. Bowman has finished 11th or better in his last 4 races at Kansas, including a runner up finish in the spring 2019 race where he led 63 laps. There is a part of me that thinks Bowman could find his way to victory lane on Sunday at seriously change the complexion of the championship 4 at Phoenix. I don’t know if he fits in a cash game lineup, but I think the possibility is there for Bowman to compete for the win.

John Hunter Nemechek ($5,500/6,100) In my opinion, John Hunter Nemechek is the only value driver that should be considered on Sunday. Nemechek finished 19th at Kansas in July. In two Xfinity races at Kansas he won and finished 8th and in three truck series races at Kansas he has 2 top 5 finishes. I don’t know if Nemechek can finish inside the top 20, but I think a finish in the low 20s is a possibility which would make him a solid value play on Sunday.

Michael McDowell ($7,200/5,700) Michael McDowell is too expensive to play on Fan Duel, but I think he makes sense as your 6th guy on DK to finish out a lineup. McDowell is starting 26th and he finished 16th at Kansas in July. I don’t expect McDowell to finish top 15, but on DK, he could get a couple differential points and finish in the top 25. I might be suffering from recency bias because McDowell cost me a lot of money last week at the Roval.

There are two drivers that I think are locks for Sunday, Kyle Busch and John Hunter Nemechek. I like Hamlin to win the race. I like the current hot streak that Erik Jones is on plus his solid record at Kansas. That leaves me with one spot to fill on Fan Duel. I am likely going to play Jimmie Johnson. This is one of those tracks that Johnson was really good at before 2017 but he hasn’t done much in the past 7 races at the track. Johnson finished 32nd in July due to the damaged vehicle policy. That’s where I am at, good luck to all our subscribers this weekend!

Bottom of the Barrel WK6 (NFL DFS)

Bottom of the Barrel WK6
10/13/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

This is downright strange. Or is it absolutely awful? As I type this I’m still thinking about Tuesday night professional football. Come to find out that’s never happened in the history of the NFL? Or has it? Oh 2020 how we loathe thee. Or do we love this idea?

That’s the thing! No one can decide! No one can agree! We’re stuck in this early week purgatory waiting for football but also wanting to look ahead to our week 6 waivers and our week 6 DFS slates!

Look, I’m not complaining at all. That’s not my style. I’m also not blaming the DFS sites. I’m too easy going for that. We are allowed to be a little irritated and frustrated. When you turn everything over to computers and algorithms this is bound to happen. My trusted ole pen and paper has never blacked out or delayed me!

DFS has become a juggernaut. It’s given birth to thousands of websites and podcasts. Lets be honest, its changed the way we all play fantasy sports. Personally, I love it. That’s where this whole article and most of my content has come from.

As human beings we’re good and adapting and overcoming. Case and point; 2020. We are in the home stretch now friends. Little over two months left in the year. Lets be mindful of each other and treat everybody with respect. Kill em’ with kindness as my late father used to say!

What you find horrid and nasty I find exciting and opportunity! Week 6 here we come!

QUARTERBACK

I have a new idea! A new feature if you will. Give out the most expensive player at each position as we get to it. Putting into perspective the B&B prices!

Lamar Jackson BAL @ PHI (14th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$7,600)

Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at QB!

Ryan Tannehill TEN v HOU (8th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$5,900)

Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill

Quick turn-a-round for the Titans this week. With a monster RB like Henry I don’t think it matters much. Tanny has posted 13 multi-TD games in his last 14 games. Good bet he does it again Sunday at home vs. Houston’s 21st overall ranked defense.

Matthew Stafford DET @ JAX (27th)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,200)

Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford

Fresh off the bye week the Lions travel to Jacksonville in what should be a winnable plus match-up. As a Detroit Lions fan that means squat. Stafford is averaging 250+ passing yards a game along with 2 TD’s per contest. He’s a safe bet to hit those numbers Sunday.

Kirk Cousins MIN v ATL (32nd)(FD-$7,100)(DK-$6,100)

Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins

Minnesota has shown some life their last few games. Looking ahead to Sunday it doesn’t get any sweeter then the Atlanta Falcons. As you read on you’ll notice a Viking type theme going on! Roster Kirk in week 6! As Bob Barker would say, “the price is right!”

Daniel Jones NYG v WSH (28th)(FD-$6,700)(DK-$5,400)

New York Giants QB Daniel Jones

5 interceptions, 16 sacks and a fumble in each of the last 4 games. I do this to myself quite often when putting this article together. So why would we use Danny Jones in week 6? He has to break out of this funk sooner or later right? You’d think so right? To be honest the Washington DST is the play in this one.

Alex Smith WSH @ NYG (5th)(FD-$6,500)(DK-$5,000)

Comeback Player of the Year Alex Smith?

I’m sure we can all agree seeing Alex on the field in week 5 was spectacular. Ron Rivera did say if Kyle Allen is healthy enough he’s the starting QB. Regardless, I’m happy he’s healthy and proud to mention him in B&B! Shout out to Mike F @DaddysHomeFF!

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey CAR v CHI (13th)(FD-$10,000)(DK-$8,500)

Carolina Panther RB Christian McCaffrery

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at RB!

David Montgomery CHI @ CAR (32nd)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$5,800)

Chicago Bears RB David Montgomery

Correct me if I’m wrong but I believe D-Mont is arguably the best RB play of week 6. I was shocked to see him under 6k. Very excited and happy but surprised! Without Cohen David is seeing all the backfield touches. Goal-line work included! The volume he will see in week 6 alone makes him a slam-dunk play!

Antonio Gibson WSH @ NYG (20th)(FD-$5,800)(DK-$5,500)

Washington rookie RB Antonio Gibson

Gibby has seen back-to-back 5 target weeks and is fully entranced as WSH lead back. On Sunday they travel to the NYG for a very positive match-up! Look for Antonio to do it all for our DFS teams this Sunday!

Myles Gaskin MIA v NYJ (28th)(FD-$5,700)(DK-$5,400)

Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

Gaskin is putting together some nice weekly averages. Looking ahead to week 6 MIA finds themselves in a sweet spot. I fully expect Myles to see 15-16 touches and around 80 total scrimmage yards. In addition to price point I love the play.

Damien Harris NE v DEN (1st)(FD-$5,600)(DK-$5,000)

New England Patriots RB Damien Harris

This game was originally suppose to be played last week. Instead both teams got bye weeks and will try again this Sunday. Harris was all the buzz last time out after getting 17 carries and accumulating 100 yards. With an extra week to prepare I’m counting on Harris to see a ton of touches in unison with James White.

D’Andre Swift DET @ JAX (24th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,500)

Detroit Lions rookie RB D’Andre Swift

Swift is no doubt the best pass catching back on this Lions team. When will the Lions let him loose and give him a full work load? For his price on both sites this week I’m willing to take that bet! #FreeSwift

Mike Boone MIN v ATL (23rd)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,000)

Minnesota Vikings RB Mike Boone

Dalvin Cook has already been ruled out for week 6. Enter Alexander Mattison! I say in walks Boone and matches Alex’s touches! The classic case of zigging when others zag! Boone has always been very productive when he sees the field. That’s the issue! With a healthy Cook it leaves Mike the odd man out. Week 6 is your DFS window for Boone!

Ke’Shawn Vaughn TB v GB (31st)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,000)

Let’s be honest, a large portion of us want Vaughn to be a thing. Well I do at least. Let me also say that if Leo Fournette is active Ke’Shawn is a non-factor.

Gus Edwards BAL @ PHI (12th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$4,000)

Baltimore Ravens RB Gus Edwards

The Ravens back-field has been a mystery so far this season. Fantasy players are currently dropping Mark Ingram. That’s how crazy this 2020 season has been so far. Gus is averaging 6.8 carries a game. Through the first few games Edwards has a 6.2 YPC. I like his odds this week in Philly.

WIDE RECEIVER

Davante Adams GB @ TB (10th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-8,000)

Green Bay Packers WR Davante Adams

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at WR!

Justin Jefferson MIN v ATL (25th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$6,000)

Minnesota Vikings rookie WR Justin Jefferson

Admittedly JJ’s price is towing the line for B&B but he’s under 6k at home against an awful Falcons team. He’s averaging 74.2 receiving a yards a game to go with 3.8 receptions a contest. Don’t think twice about it! ROSTER JJ in week 6!

Chase Claypool PIT v CLE (30th)(FD-$5,500)(DK-$5,200)

Pittsburgh Steelers rookie WR Chase Claypool

What a coming out party for the kid in week 5! There’s nothing I can say you don’t already know. Give the rookie a shot in week 6 while his price is still manageable.

N’Keal Harry NE v DEN (27th)(FD-$5,400)(DK-$4,500)

New England Patriots WR N’Keal Harry

I try and stay away from players who’s value is tied to another. Meaning, long as Cam Newton is the starting QB for the Pats I like Harry as a DFS play. Keep an eye on Cam the next few days. Nothing official yet either way.

Darnell Mooney CHI @ CAR (6th)(FD-$5,000)(DK-$3,000)

Chicago Bears Darnell Mooney

Did you know Mooney has been targeted 5 fives times in two of their last three games? He’s also played the 2nd most snaps of all the Chicago WR’s. Foles threw some awful passes last time out but with another week of practice under their belt here’s hoping for some chemistry!

Danny Amendola DET @ JAX (19th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,100)

Detroit Lions WR Danny Amendola

Danny will never put up WR1 numbers each week for your DFS team. He will however produce a safe floor at a low price enabling you to roster one, may two WR1’s! It’s strategic move this week!

Darrius Shepherd GB @ TB (10th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$3,000)

Green Bay Packers WR Darrius Shepherd

The Packers stud WR1, Adams, has practiced in full all week. Green Bay rarely gets into 3+ WR sets during the game. I still find some sort of value for Darrius here in week 6. He’s literally the cheapest you can get at WR.

TIGHT END

Mark Andrews BAL @ PHI (29th)(FD-$7,600)(DK-$6,500)

Baltimore Ravens TE Mark Andrews

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at TE!

Tight end is a wasteland for cheaper options this week. So tread lightly!

Trey Burton IND v CIN (19th)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$3,100)

Indianapolis Colts TE Trey Burton

Here’s a guy that’s always bugged the heck out of me. All the potential in the world but just can’t put it together. Always on and off the IR and injury reports. I know he can only do so much. Phil Rivers seemingly looks his way when he’s on the field. Whatever that’s worth.

Tyler Eifert JAX v DET (6th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$3,400)

Jacksonville Jaguars TE Tyler Eifert

Eifert didn’t practice Wednesday due to a neck stinger but reports out of Jacksonville are saying they aren’t worried about his status Sunday v the Lions. I have this odd feeling Tyler scores a few times Sunday. I don’t know! I can’t shake it!

Richard Rodgers PHI v BAL (17th)(FD-$4,400)(DK-$2,500)

Philadelphia Eagles TE Richard Rodgers

I honestly have no idea what the heck is going on in Philly. Goedert is still not playing. Zach Ertz looks slow and washed. Something something Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson. All in all it’s quite awful.

Irv Smith Jr. MIN v ATL (32nd)(FD-$4,300)(DK-$2,500)

Minnesota Vikings TE Irv Smith Jr.

If the Irv Jr. breakout game doesn’t happen this week friends it’s not happening at all.

Nick Boyle BAL @ PHI (29th)(FD-$4,100)(DK-$2,500)

Baltimore Ravens TE Nick Boyle

Boyle played 62 offensive snaps in week 5! His largest total of the season. We’ve seen Lamar feed Mark Andrews several times this season. Who’s to say PHI doesn’t take away Mark leaving Boyle open a time or two?

Here are two of my sample lines I’m going to use for week 6! Keep in mind these lines are for entertainment purposes! Please play responsible!

Fanduel 10/18 1p MAIN

Also look for updated lines closer to lock on Sunday morning 10/18!

Draftkings 10/18 1p MAIN

Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

NASCAR – The Setup – 101020

The Setup – Bank of America ROVAL 400
By Tyler Miller
@rickybobby_jr

NASCAR heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 on Sunday afternoon. Rain is in the forecast and if the Cup race turns out to be anything like the Xfinity race on Saturday you can expect the unexpected. This is only the third race at the ROVAL, which combines the infield road course with the traditional oval at Charlotte Motor Speedway. This track takes drivers out of their comfort zone and creates an unpredictable type of racing, comparable to what we see on superspeedways like Talladega last weekend. This fact is accentuated by the threat of rain and NASCAR’s affinity for wet weather racing on road courses. From a DFS perspective, my approach is the same as my approach to Daytona and Talladega, no cash games and larger entry fee single entry contests. Playing cash games on Sunday doesn’t make any sense because the risk outweighs the reward. Let’s get started.

Race Distance: 109 laps, Stage 1 ends on lap 25, Stage 2 ends on lap 50.
Lineup Lock 2:30 pm eastern Sunday
Last year’s winner – Chase Elliott (Started 19th)
Last year’s pole sitter: William Byron (Finished 6th)
Prior race winners:
2018: Ryan Blaney (Started 9th)

Talladega Recap:
What went right?

First of all, I love Talladega. I enjoyed every second of the race last Sunday. My write-up last week only included one driver in the top 5 of Fan Duel scoring (Tyler Reddick) but I still cashed in my biggest payday to date with a second place in the $1K Sun NAS Gas Pedal ($25 single entry) on Fan Duel. My top plays were Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Chase Elliott. Elliott worked out the best with 41 laps led, a 5th place finish and scoring the 7th most points on Fan Duel. Blaney and Logano both led laps but had issues late. Blaney ended up being the better play scoring 30.7 points on Fan Duel compared to Logano’s 29.3, but that was basically a wash. My best play from The Setup was Justin Haley. Haley finished the race 11th with +24 differential which was good enough for 8th in Fan Duel scoring at $5.5K and low ownership. Avoiding Stenhouse (I wrote him up but said I wouldn’t play him) was also a really good move. Stenhouse was highly owned (51% in my single entry contest) which led to a clear path to cashing on Sunday. I had Bubba Wallace and Matt Kenseth written up and they were both solid plays, scoring more points than Blaney/Logano, but they didn’t really light the world on fire. The combination of using Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, and Justin Haley and avoiding Stenhouse led to a big payday on Sunday.

What went wrong?
I was high on Brendan Gaughan and he got collected in the Kurt Busch crash. Gaughan really wasn’t that big of a deal because he was so highly owned, especially on Fan Duel where his price was much lower compared to Draft Kings. I wrote William Byron up but didn’t get him enough consideration for my lineup. Overall, it was a great race and I’m not going to complain.

What Vegas thinks (Saturday PM lines via Draft Kings Sportsbook)
Chase Elliott is favored at +275. I would be willing to bet that one of the top four favorites (Elliott, Truex, Hamlin, or Harvick) will win this race. If you are looking for a longshot, go with Jimmie Johnson at +2000.

Chase Elliott +275
Martin Truex Jr +500
Denny Hamlin +800
Kevin Harvick +800
Ryan Blaney +1200
Clint Bowyer +1400
Kyle Busch +1400
Brad Keselowski +1500
Joey Logano +1600
Alex Bowman +2000
Jimmie Johnson +2000

Driver Ratings at the ROVAL:
1. Chase Elliott 122.0
2. Kevin Harvick 111.7
3. Jimmie Johnson 105.0
4. Clint Bowyer 103.5
5. Martin Truex Jr. 101.3
6. William Byron 98.6
7. Brad Keselowski 97.6
8. Ryan Blaney 96.1
9. Kurt Busch 85.9
10. Joey Logano 85.9
11. Alex Bowman 84.9
12. Kyle Busch 79.0
13. Aric Almirola 77.0
14. Michael McDowell 73.3
15. Matt DiBenedetto 72.0

Average Running Position
1. Kevin Harvick 6.390
2. Chase Elliott 8.188
3. Martin Truex Jr. 8.862
4. Jimmie Johnson 9.385
5. Clint Bowyer 10.977
6. William Byron 11.590
7. Brad Keselowski 11.966
8. Ryan Blaney 12.803
9. Joey Logano 13.966
10. Kurt Busch 15.188
11. Kyle Busch 15.541
12. Daniel Suarez 16.142
13. Michael McDowell 16.606
14. Aric Almirola 16.706
15. Alex Bowman 17.656

Laps Led
1. Chase Elliott 35 (16.1% of laps run)
2. Kevin Harvick 34 (15.6)
3. Brad Keselowski 32 (14.7)
4. William Byron 23 (10.6)
5. Ryan Blaney 16 (7.3)

2019 Top 10:
1. Chase Elliott
2. Alex Bowman
3. Kevin Harvick
4. Clint Bowyer
5. Brad Keselowski
6. William Byron
7. Martin Truex Jr.
8. Ryan Blaney
9. Jimmie Johnson
10. Joey Logano

2018 Top 10:
1. Ryan Blaney
2. Jamie McMurray
3. Clint Bowyer
4. Alex Bowman
5. Kurt Busch
6. Chase Elliott
7. A.J. Allmendinger
8. Jimmie Johnson
9. Kevin Harvick
10. Joey Logano

Chase Elliott ($13,500/10,600) Chase Elliott is the top play. He is the favorite to win, he has a ridiculious driver rating in his two races at the ROVAL and he has won three road course races in a row including the Daytona road course earlier this year, the ROVAL a year ago, and Watkins Glen in the summer of 2019. Starting second, Chase is a bit of a risk. In the even he has an incident or wipes out in the rain he could kill a lineup, but I think he leads a lot of laps on Sunday and finishes in the top 3.

Kevin Harvick ($13,000/9,900) Kevin Harvick is the natural pivot away from Chase Elliott. Harvick has been really solid in his two races at the ROVAL finishing 3rd last year and 9th in the inaugural event. I don’t think you can fit Harvick and Elliott together on Fan Duel, but in a multi-entry situation, I like him slightly less than Elliott on Sunday.

Clint Bowyer ($11,300/8,800) I really like Clint Bowyer on Sunday. Bowyer has been outstanding at the ROVAL with two top 5 finishes and a driver rating of 103.5. I think Bowyer is a great play, but its difficult to play him because I don’t think the laps led will be there and there are so many other drivers that are going to get huge positive differential. Overall, Bowyer is a solid play on either site.

Jimmie Johnson ($10,600/9,100) Starting 30th, Jimmie Johnson is a no brainer for Sunday afternoon. While 2020 has not been the year Johnson had hoped for, this is a track where he could compete for the win and come away with some positive feelings about his last full-time season in the sport. I would play Jimmie Johnson with confidence on Sunday.

Michael McDowell ($9,000/8,100) Michael McDowell is a solid mid-tier play for the ROVAL on Sunday. McDowell is starting 31st and has the potential for a top 15, maybe even a top 10 finish on Sunday. My only issue with McDowell is that he is priced up significantly from his typical salary. If you can fit McDowell, particularly on DK, you should seriously consider him for a top 15 and +15 differential.

Chris Buescher ($7,000/6,900) Chris Buescher is my money maker on Sunday. I expect him to be very low owned and starting 21st, he can get a solid +5 differential and a top 15 finish at a value price. Buescher has solid road course stats in his young career. Buescher has finishes of 17th and 18th in two races at the ROVAL, he finished 5th at the Daytona road course earlier this year, he has 3 top 20 finishes in his last 3 races at Watkins Glen, and he has finished on the lead lap in each of his 4 races at Sonoma with 3 top 20 finishes. Nobody talks about him, but Buescher is a solid road racer and I think he is a great contrarian play on Sunday if you want to get away from Stenhouse and/or Christopher Bell who will be chalk.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. ($6,600/7,700) As soon as I saw the starting lineup, I knew this would be a thorn in my side. Since Stenhouse wrecked early at Talladega he is starting last at the ROVAL. I do not trust Stenhouse to run a clean race on Sunday, but his ownership will be too high and there is too much upside for you to fade him on Sunday. Stenhouse could easily finish the race 20th, get +18 differential and be highly owned to the point where it is nearly impossible to cash without him. I don’t like it, but you probably have to play him on Sunday.

Christopher Bell ($7,600/7,500) Christopher Bell is starting 35th, which makes him difficult to fade on Sunday. I think Bell will be lower owned on Fan Duel because of his salary, but he should be seriously considered on both sites due to the potential for positive differential.

Some quick math (using Fan Duel scoring): If Bell finishes 19th (Matt DiBenedetto finished 11th in this car a year ago) he will score 22 points for the position, 8 points for differential (+16) and 10.9 for 109 laps run (assuming he finishes on the lead lap). That total would be 40.9. If Chase Elliott finishes 10th, he would score 31 points for the position, -4 for differential (-8) and 10.9 for 109 laps run. That total would be 37.9. Under this scenario, even if Chase Elliott led 25 laps he would still score fewer points than Christopher Bell.

My strategy for this race is to pick the winner and then load up on drivers who are starting 30th or worse and have a realistic shot at a top 15 finish. Chase Elliott was so much faster than everyone else last year that he crashed in turn 1 as the leader, pitted, restarted at the back, and then passed everyone in the final stage to win the race. I think Elliott could dominate this race but the weather could play a huge factor. Good luck!

Bottom of the Barrel WK5 (NFL DFS)

Bottom Of the Barrel WK5
10/5/2020
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

What a Sunday! What a weekend! What a week for Bottom of the Barrel!

It’s week 5 now and week 4 is behind us! We have to move fast in this fantasy football world! Only way to survive is planning ahead!

QUARTERBACK

I have a new idea! A new feature if you will. Give out the most expensive player at each position as we get to it. Putting into perspective the B&B prices!

Patrick Mahomes KC v LV (9th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$7,700)

Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at QB!

Joe Burrow CIN @ BAL (22nd)(FD-$7,300)(DK-$6,000)

Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow

Joe is the real deal! Burrow just set a rookie QB record! 3 straight 300 yard passing performances by a rookie QB. Playing in BAL is no easy task but let’s see what this rookie is all about! Joe should be lowed due to the match-up but I’m loving the potential in this one!

Teddy Bridgewater CAR @ ATL (32nd)(FD-$7,100)(DK-$5,900)

Carolina Panthers QB Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy! It’s great to see him on the field and running around again isn’t it? Let’s be honest this Carolina team has a little momentum winning two in a row! They now head to ATL (0-4) and the match-up couldn’t be any better.. The Falcons are reeling, to say the least, while the Panthers putting it all together! No disrespect to Teddy but this play has everything to do with the match-up.

Phil Rivers IND @ CLE (30th)(FD-$6,900)(DK-$5,800)

Indianapolis Colts QB Phillip Rivers

Phil is Phil! Sunday in CLE may just be the game we see the old bolo tie wearing gun slinger! CLE ranks 20th overall vs. the pass while Rivers sits around 7th in overall net passing yards per attempt. I know that’s a long shot statistic but it could be a perfect storm in Cleveland!

C.J. Beathard SF v MIA (29th)(FD-$6,000)(DK-$5,300)

San Francisco 49ers QB CJ Beathard

Assuming Jimmy G is still out for week 5 and assuming Nick Mullens is benched for C.J. I really like this match-up. You know what they say when we assume? Makes an ass out of you and me. Get it?

Tua Tagovailoa MIA @ SF (8th)(FD-$6,200)(DK-$5,400)

Miami Dolphins rookie QB Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins coach Brian Flores hasn’t committed to a starter in week 5. The entire fantasy football community is on pins and needles waiting for Tua’s debut. I’m with you! Lets pay close attention to this one…

RUNNING BACK

Ezekiel Elliot DAL v NYG (17th)(FD-$9,000)(DK-$7,800)

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at RB!

D’Ernest Johnson CLE v IND (2nd)(FD-$5,300)(DK-$4,700)

Cleveland Browns RB D’Ernest Johnson

I’m sure you’ve heard Nick Chubb is on the IR. It’s very unfortunate but it’s now an opportunity for Johnson. Who filled in very well Sunday. To the tune of 13 carries for 95 yards. CLE has been very run heavy the first few games of the season. I don’t see that changing now. Hunt will no doubt see all the passing down work but what if I could promise you 10+ carries from D’Ernest?

J.K. Dobbins BAL v CIN (22nd)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,300)

Baltimore Ravens rookie RB J.K. Dobbins

Something has to give here right? Ingram, Gus and Dobbins are all in the mix. It’s driving JK owners nuts. Sunday v CIN should afford Dobbins more chances. With chances come opportunity. With opportunity comes fantasy points.

Reggie Bonnafon CAR @ ATL (13th)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$4,200)

Carolina Rb Reggie Bonnafon

We all thought Reggie was CMC’s handcuff right? Come find out Mike Davis is good at football! Reggie caught a TD in week 4 then they sent him back down to the practice squad Monday. So if they call Reggie up again they have to keep him on the active roster or risk losing him on waivers. CMC is still a week out so I fully expect a Davis/Reggie backfield week 5 in ATL. It’s such a plus match-up both backs can be successful.

Brian Hill ATL v CAR (31st)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$4,000)

Atlanta Falcons RB Brian Hill

Hill was given some very high upside attempts Monday but fell short of anything productive. Which is fine. Just sets him up nice Sunday v CAR who just happens to be the worst graded team v pass catching RB’s. Carolina has given up 27 receptions to RB’s.

Jordan Wilkins IND @ CLE (27th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$4,000)

Indianapolis Colts RB Jordan Wilkins

A lot of you were upset with Jon Taylor’s usage Sunday and rightfully so. Hines and Wilkins received some major work behind him. Is that a sign of things to come? I doubt with a young stud like JT but we need to think ahead and prepare just in case.

Anthony McFarland Jr. PIT v PHI (19th)(FD-$4,500)(DK-$4,000)

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Anthony McFarland Jr.

James Connor is no doubt the lead back in PIT. McFarland and Snell split carries behind him Sunday. Anthony took advantage and did more with his carries then Snell. I have no issue putting McFarland in some of my GGP lines Sunday. I’m expecting the rookies first NFL touchdown at home this weekend! The word “electric” was also thrown around after his week 4 preformance!

WIDE RECEIVER

DeAndre Hopkins ARZ @ NYJ (10th)(FD-$8,700)(DK-$7,900)

Arizona Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at WR!

CeeDee Lamb DAL v NYG (19th)(FD-$5,900)(DK-$6,000)

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb

Oh c’mon! CeeDee is still ONLY $5,900 on FanDuel? Fresh off a 5 reception, 79 yard and 2 touchdown game his price goes up only $300? It’s shocking quite frankly! He’s right on the cusp of being too much for B&B but until his price increases get used to seeing him here! Can you blame me?

Cole Beasley BUF @ TEN (21st)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,700)

Buffalo Bills WR Cole Beasley

I’ve never been big on Cole and I was wrong Sunday. This Buffalo team is very good and Josh Allen can support 3-4 WR’s! I know! It’s wild right? Cole is currently on pace for 1,000 yards too! Beasley will continue to be a favorite option for Allen moving forward and that alone makes him worth the price!

Tim Patrick DEN @ NE (24th)(FD-$5,200)(DK-$4,400)

Denver Broncos WR Time Patrick

I could write and write about Tim and his prospects all day long. How many people would read it though? To keep it simple, Patrick lead the Broncos in targets, receptions and receiving yards Sunday. He looks to have a strong connection with young QB Brett Rypien. At his DFS price that’s enough for me to add him!

Hunter Renfrow LV @ KC (1st)(FD-$5,100)(DK-$4,900)

Las Vegas Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow

The Raiders rookie WR’s are still hurt it seems. Giving Hunter more playing time and targets. It’s a tough task Sunday vs. a fast and hungry KC secondary but Carr has looked fantastic to start the season. The snaps are there and the price is right!

Jeff Smith NYJ v ARZ (3rd)(FD-$4,900)(DK-$3,000)

New York Jets WR Jeff Smith

Who? How many people in the world do you think have this name? Jeff Smith! Another kid who has been thrust into a starting role due to injuries. Keep a close eye on Perriman. If he’s unable to play Sunday Mr. Smith will play opposite of Crowder and for this price you could do worse. Right?

Gabriel Davis BUF @ TEN (21st)(FD-$4,700)(DK-$3,400)

Buffalo Bills rookie WR Gabriel Davis

Gabe Davis played so well last Sunday I had to add him again! As I said above, Allen can support all these different combos of WR’s! Davis has no doubt carved out a role in Buffalo!

Isaiah Ford MIA @ SF (11th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$3,500)

Miami Dolphins WR Isaiah Ford

Has Ford taken over the WR2 role in MIA? Not sure. Has he taken to Chan Gailey’s offensive game plan? Absolutely! Whatever is going on I want a slice of it. Ford looks fast and elusive! He’s the reason I created this article!

TIGHT END

Travis Kelce KC v LV (8th)(FD-$7,800)(DK-$6,400)

Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

Aside from the no doubt must start stud TE’s this position is pretty shallow in week 5. I t would be rude of me to just skip it all together!

Here are some cheaper options I’m considering at TE!

Jordan Akins HOU v JAX (24th)(FD-$4,800)(DK-$3,300)

Houston Texans TE Jordan Akins

Akins suffered a concussion Sunday so keep an eye on him. This Sunday, week 5, against JAX is a very juicy match-up. If he plays he’s in my lineup.

Dawson Knox BUF @ TEN (25th)(FD-$4,600)(DK-$3,600)

Buffalo Bills TE Dawson Knox

Tyler Kroft BUF @ TEN (25th)(FD-$4,400)(DK-$3,000)

I’m going to lump both Buffalo TE’s together here if you don’t mind? What are the chances we see a repeat of a few weeks ago and both BUF TE catch a TD? I’d say not half bad given the match-up!

Blake Bell DAL v NYG (9th)(FD-$4,200)(DK-$2,800)

Dallas Cowboys TE Blake Bell

Raise your hand if you’ve heard of Blake Bell? That’s what I thought! Dallas welcomes the Giants to Jerry World Sunday in an NFC East match-up. It has all the makings of Zeke Elliot game here. In turn, screams 2-3 TD game from their TE’s! Shultz is the TE1 in Dallas but don’t forget about Bell!

Dan Arnold ARZ @ NYJ (18th)(FD-$4,200)(DK-$3,200)

Arizona Cardinals TE Dan Arnold

Dan Connor AKA Dan Arnold makes his return to B&B simply due to match-up. The O/U in this one sits at 48.5 points as of now. It just screams Cardinals blow out doesn’t it?

Here are two of my sample lines I’m going to use for week 5! Keep in mind these lines are for entertainment purposes! Please play responsible!

Fanduel 10/11 Main

Also look for updated lines closer to the start of the season! This Thursday 10/8 and Sunday morning 10/11!

Draftkings Main 10/11

Any questions or comments?

Did I miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

I Hate Fantasy Football Players THE END!

I Hate Fantasy Football Players pt. 3
10/3/20
Chris Robin https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

When’s the last time a sequel was better then the original? When you enter into trilogy territory that’s when you know you’ve got a hit!

Star Wars, Lord of the Rings, The Godfather, Back to the Future and The Mighty Ducks are all on the list of greatest movie combos ever. If you’re into 1980’s horror slasher flicks like me, then a trilogy has a greater meaning! Halloween, Friday the 13th and Nightmare on Elm Street.

I’ve always antiquated football with the fall. The fall with horror movies. I Hate Fantasy Football Players deserved a third part thus, making it a trilogy. When discussing horror movie trilogies there are a few rules to discuss.

If you missed the first two here there are! https://www.dfscheatsheet.com/i-hate-fantasy-football-players/nfl/05/

Here is #2! https://www.dfscheatsheet.com/i-still-hate-fantasy-football-players/nfl/05/

 

1. Sex = Death
2. Don’t drink and do drugs
3. Never say “I’ll be right back!”
4. Sequels are always bigger and bloodier
5. Sequel killers are basically superhuman
6. Anyone can die in a sequel

On social media you see everything! On social media anything goes. I look at fantasy football on Twitter and Facebook as being in an actual horror movie! The owners listed below are the same as a masked man carrying a large knife! They will chase you down, cause anxiety and murder your fantasy football joy!

1. Glad it’s a free league guy

I’m no big shot. I truly understand the excitement of drafting and building a team. Certain website allow you to draft at an instant. In turn you get people racking up 20-25+ free leagues and deserting most of them by week 3. Not to be rude but that’s none of my business. What is our business are all the preposterous trade offer screen shots littering social media. I don’t know about you but it tests my patience. Would you send and accept half the offers you receive if your current home league was free?

2. “Thoughts” guy

Literally the worst! From what I’ve seen a lot of fantasy football groups on social media have banned this exact statement! Made this trade, thoughts? Most of these questions don’t include league size, scoring format or current roster. At this point in the article hopefully you’re upset. Just as pissed as I am! Please dear Lord don’t be thoughts guy! It’s lazy and upsets people! Most of the time there is a huge fight in the comment section. People get upset and they answer with a smartass reply. That leads to more smartass comments and before you know it there’s a full blown Royal Rumble going on.

3. Will I win guy?

My worst fear!

If you have to ask probably not. Before we jump to conclusions I do get the idea. Some of us are wound tight. We get nervous. We want others to back us up. In all my years of playing fantasy football I’ve never seen anything good come from this question. In today’s day and age of social media you’ll always wind getting made fun of and/or put down. Trolls right? They are everywhere!

4. Get back in 5 guy

Ghosting 101…

We all know what this is. The blow off move. When another team owner is scared or doesn’t want to hurt your feelings, “I’ll be right baaaaaaack!” No you won’t!

5. Over thinking guy

Start? Sit? Add? Drop?

Hopefully by now you understand I’m not putting anybody down. Heck, I’ve done each and every one of these! Over thinking anything is just a by product of being thorough. Wanting to be absolutely right in every way. Which as you know is impossible! If it seems too good to be true it usually is. If it feels off and not right it usually is. With fantasy sports so prevalent on social media now a days a quick poll should do the trick. Or a quick message to your most trusted friend. Nothing good comes from over thinking. It creates unwanted stress and anxiety. The whole point of this is fun! Connecting with others. Building relationships with others. Make a decision and stick with it! Easier said then done I know but just try it this week! Lets see what happens.

6. Toilet tinkered guy

Where some of my best ideas come!

Some of my best work is done on the toilet! Not bring crass or rude, it’s just the truth! We can tinker with our seasonal lineups and our DFS lines and both are deadly! Everybody has a smart phone. Meaning we have everything at our finger tips at a moments notice! Games, banking apps, news apps, sports apps and our fantasy sports apps. Oh! What better time to check the waiver wire while we have a few moments alone on the toilet right? I set my seasonal lineup Sunday night or Monday morning for the following week. I check back Tuesday to get in my waiver claims. Wednesday morning I shuffle my roster around and leave it be! Sunday morning I check the news and injuries and give it one last look over before lock at 1p EST. My point, if we make our decisions early in the week they come from a place of confidence! A gut reaction that is normally right and spot on! When it comes to DFS enter enter all week then edit right before lock. Tinkering will be the death of your team. Unless that’s the fun?

7. Victory lap guy

This is a huge topic of discussion on social media. For those of you who don’t know let me briefly explain. A victory lap is just a told you so. A parade thrown for yourself after getting a certain projection or ranking correct. For example, “Ahhhh I told you Ke’Shawn Vaughn wasn’t a top-10 dynasty rookie RB!”. Vaughn has been in street clothes so far this season meaning the victory lappers have decided enough time has passed to solidify their stance on him. I’m being objective here! No opinion one way or another. Just shining light on the topic. Most recently victory lappers will now ask ahead of time. For example, “May I take my victory lap on Brandin Cooks now?” which is very thoughtful and we all appreciate you! In some cases the victory lapper will lay out their plans, “If Julian Edleman doesn’t catch 10 passes today I’m going to take my victory lap.” Another nice and thoughtful idea. I’ve also noticed their have been a few rules placed on victory lapping. To me, the most important one, the injury victory lap. Don’t victory lap when a player gets hurt. That’s in poor taste right? Overall I find the victory lap very perplexing.

8. Inappropriate group chat guy

We all know this guy. Most of the time we tell each other, “Oh don’t mind Steve he’s a miserable human being to begin with!” Steve is always sending awful meme’s or sexually explicit photos/videos in you leagues group chat. In certain cases that’s all he’s known for. We even stick up for him in advance of said meme’s and gif’s. “I want to warn you Chris, Steve is a little off and he says weird things sometimes.” It helps soften the blow. If you’re reading this and laughing hysterically saying, “dang that’s funny but we don’t have a guy like Steve in our group chat!” Then you’re Steve! You’re the inappropriate group chat guy! Never change Steve!

9. Neglects an entire position guy

This one is exactly what you think it is! Zero RB guy! Or zero WR guy. Let’s fool around during the draft and try to outsmart everybody else! In the end it never works out well. Let’s say over the years a team was orphaned in your league. New owner comes in and trades most of the talent away. In turn, they have Julio Jones, Davante Adams and Michael Thomas at WR. Pretty sweet right? Until you notice their starting RB’s are Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy. A top heavy team that never really competes due to neglect at one position. Again, it’s none of my business how you run your team. That’s the beauty of this! We’re our own teams general manager! Just bringing awareness.

10. Commish with no plan guy

Full disclosure, I was struggling with the last, “Guy” on this list. Ten is just a nice round number. When have you read a list that ended with nine. After the breaking news Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19 and the New England at Kansas City was delayed a lot of fantasy managers were scrambling for replacements. Even more so after the postponement of Pittsburgh at Tennessee. Throughout the weekend I’ve seen a ton of advice and overall disappointment in leagues commissioners. Rightfully so if you’re now left holding you hat with an incomplete roster. We all knew this 2020 NFL season was going to be unlike any season we’ve experienced before. Certain votes were cast before the draft and some after. Any way you slice it we need contingency plans. Anything! To sit back and do nothing isn’t fair. It’s not right to us and all fantasy managers alike.

Is it over?

Hope you had fun! Is the idea now dead? Like Michael Myers at the end of Halloween? Who knows! You’ll just have to wait and see!

Thank you for reading! Any questions or comments?

Did I miss someone? Who would you add? Let’s talk about it!

Find me on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/DetroitBeastie

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1

Hammer Time WK4 (Sunday Edition)

Hammer Time
10/4/20
Anthony Joseph Volanti https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Welcome back to DFS CheatSheet’s Hammer Time with the Gambling Guru! Each week, I’ll share my favorite bets to help give you an edge over the oddsmakers. Because let’s be honest, the only thing better than watching football is winning some money on it. LET’S GOOO!

*Note: The odds listed are accurate as of the time of writing, but the market is subject to change—shop around for the best lines. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Week 2 Betting Recap:

Los Angeles Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

After a huge Week 2, the Gambling Guru faced some regression in Week 3. I hit on 3 of the 5 Thursday Night props—Myles Gaskin easily hit on both of his props and the Dophins trumped the Jaguars (I told you to fade the ’stache!)—before going 10-15 in the Sunday afternoon slate of games. Several factors contributed to the shortcomings, including Diontae Johnson getting knocked out of his matchup with a concussion and Bucaneers head coach Bruce Arians inexplicably sticking with Ronald Jones over Leonard Fournette. But several players fell just short of their props. Miles Sanders missed his total yards prop by a measly 2.5 yards—adding extra justification for my screaming at the television as the Eagles passed and then punted for the tie at the end of the game instead of running the ball to get in better field goal range. Austin Ekeler and Kenyan Drake also narrowly missed their rushing yard props, though the former crushed his passing and total yardage prop. The Bears-Falcons game in particular was brutal as all four of my bets fell short. I was saved from a disastrous day by a huuuge performance by Alvin Kamara in the night cap. Kamara hit both of his props, as well as the first TD scorer bet—his second time this season already (shameless brag: he also propelled me to a comeback victory in fantasy with 44+ points).

Arizona Cardinals RB Kenyan Drake

Week 3 Record: 15-18 (45%)

Let’s see if we can recover here in Week 4, starting with some TNF props…

TNF Player Props and Bets: DEN @ NYJ

· Melvin Gordon over 60.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Noah Fant over 43.5 receiving yards (-110 at Bet MGM)
· Jerry Jeudy over 50.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
· K.J. Hamler over 33.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Melvin Gordon to score the first TD (+500 at DraftKings)*
Just when we thought the Thursday Night games couldn’t get any uglier, the NFL unloads a battle of basement dwellers on us as the talentless New York Jets play host to the hapless Denver Broncos. The Jets, indefinitely hindered by the Adam Gase Effect and plagued with injuries at the skilled positions, offer little in terms of player prop value. The options on the other side are just as unappetizing, as third-string quarterback Brett Rypien will be getting the start for the Broncos. Still, what kind of Gambling Guru would I be if I sat this one out? Unlike these teams, I have heart, so I’ve dug deep for these sleeper picks.

First, the chalk. Through 3 games this season, Melvin Gordon has 42 rushing attempts and 174 yards. That averages out to 58 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. Gordon was notably limited last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, getting only 8 touches in the ground game. Poor game script aside, I suspect that’s because head coach Vic Fangio wanted to keep him fresh for tonight’s game since they’ll be playing on a short week. The Jets defense is quite possibly the worst in the league and this is Rypien’s first official start, so all things point to Denver pounding the rock. If Gordon gets a workload closer to the first two games of the season, he should have at least 15 carries. That puts him on track for at least 62 yards so I’m hammering the over there. I’ll also pick him to score the game’s first touchdown, simply because there are no better options.

I’m also going in on Noah Fant’s yardage prop. he’s eclipsed this in each game so far this year, with 81, 57, and 46 yards. The yardage is trending in the wrong direction, but I’m confident he’ll pull through as Rypien’s security blanket. I’ll also take the over on Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler’s receiving yards as yards should be easy to come by against this Jets secondary.

Sunday Spreads and Player Props:
SEA @ MIA:

Miami Dolphins RB Myles Gaskin

· Myles Gaskin over 3.5 receptions (-112 at Bet MGM)
· Myles Gaskin over 24.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· DeVante Parker over 4.5 receptions (-105 at DraftKings)
· DeVante Parker over 61.5 receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel)
· Tyler Lockett over 72.5 receiving yards (-110 at FanDuel)
· Tyler Lockett over 5.5 receptions (+105 at Bet MGM)
· DK Metcalf over 67.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
Tyler Locket has averaged 8 receptions for over 85 yards per game so far this season and D.K. Metcalf has averaged about 100 yards per game. Look for more of the same against a weak Miami secondary this Sunday. Hammer the over on all three of these mispriced lines. On the flip side, Seattle has been the second worst team against the pass so far. That makes DeVante Parker a solid bet to go over his reception and receiving yards prop. Parker eclipsed both numbers last week against the Jaguars, in spite of a negative game script, and came within 15 yards of the receiving prop in the first two games against the elite corners on the Bills and Patriots. Myles Gaskin, who is averaging 30 yards on 5 receptions per game, will continue to get work on passing downs, as they’ll be playing from behind in this one.

N.O. @ DET:

New Orleans Saints WR Tre’Quan Smith

· Alvin Kamara over 7.5 receptions (+123 at DraftKings)
· Alvin Kamara over 59.5 receiving yards (-115 at Bet MGM)
· Kenny Golladay over 60.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
No surprises here. My love affair with Alvin Kamara continues as I project him to go over 59.5 receiving yards and total 8 or more receptions. It’s a steep number, but he absolutely crushed it last week in a shootout with the Packers. Michael Thomas has been already been ruled out for a third straight week, so the “Drew Brees Checkdown Show” starring Alvin Kamara will continue. For Detroit, I like Golladay to flash in his second start, especially since both starting corners for the Saints are out. Hammer all three of these props.

CLE @ DAL:

Dallas Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliot

· CeeDee Lamb over 61.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Michael Gallup over 57.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings)
The Cleveland Browns have been one of the worst teams against slot receivers. That bodes well for stud rookie CeeDee Lamb, who is averaging over 75 yards and no fewer than 59 yards through three games this year. I also like Michael Gallup to go over his receiving yards prop. He’s had fewer receptions than Lamb, but his average yards per reception has been much higher in each game this season at 16.67, 29, and 23. Gallup and Prescott have also come close to hooking up on several other 40+ passes this year—it’s clear that he is the go-to deep target. I found the best line (both in terms of lowest threshold and lowest juice) at DraftKings so shop around. *hammer* *hammer*

ARI @ CAR:

Carolina Panther RB Mike Davis

· Kenyan Drake over 70.5 rushing yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
· ***BEST BET*** Mike Davis over 5.5 receptions (+117 at DraftKings)
· Mike Davis over 39.5 receiving yards (-112 at Bet MGM)
Kenyan Drake has been disappointing so far this season. But this week? We love the Drake. To quote Seinfeld: “How can you not like the Drake?”

We’ve seen him go off in the past—I can attest to that from a painful personal experience in the second half of my Fantasy Championship last year—and this is a great blowup spot. The Carolina Panthers have the worst run defense in the league and have given up the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing running backs. Drop. The. Hammer.
For the Panthers, I am banking on Mike Davis continuing to be a PPR machine in the absence of Christian McCaffrey. I think he tops his receiving yards prop easily as the Panthers should be playing from behind in this game. Davis had 8 receptions in each of his two starts this year, so I’m shocked that his line is only 5.5 receptions at DraftKings and even more shocked that it’s being offered at plus money. That’s a huge oversight by Vegas. Make them pay. I’m laying down the hammer like Thor.

BUF @ LVR:

Buffalo Bills RB Devin Singletary

· Josh Jacobs over 72.5 rushing yards (-112 at DraftKings)
· Darren Waller over 5.5 receptions (+105 at Bet MGM)
· Devin Singletary over 77.5 total yards (-124 at DraftKings)
· Devin Singletary over 58.5 rushing yards (-112 at FanDuel)
Devin Singletary made the most of his 17 touches last week accounting for over 125 of Buffalo’s yards on offense. Zack Moss is questionable to return from his toe injury, after getting limited sessions in practice this week. Look for head coach Sean McDermott to stick with the hot hand. Bill Belichick always schemes a way to control the opponent’s best player, so it was no surprise he targeted Darren Waller in last week’s matchup. Waller will bounce back from his abysmal performance in a big way today. He has to if the Raiders are going to stay in this game. Josh Jacobs will also be a key to a Raiders victory and slowing down a red-hot Josh Allen. I don’t think they will, but I do think they nail these props.

BAL @ WAS

Baltimore Ravens rookie RB J.K. Dobbins

· BAL -12.5 (+110 Odds Boost at FanDuel)
Baltimore’s offense is too unpredictable to find any juicy props here and Washington—well, they are a professional football team… but one without a name or talent. Lamar Jackson has heard the talk and will look to disprove the “haters” with a 2019-esque MVP performance. FanDuel is going to regret this Odds Boost promo. Hammer it.

Parlay Play of the Week:

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson

4-team money line parlay: SEA, NO, LAR, and BAL (+171 at DraftKings)*
There’s not much analysis to offer on this one. The Ravens and Rams should run away in their respective games and, on paper, the Seahawks and Saints should have their way as well. If you want to be ballsy, you can take NO -3 and SEA -5 instead of the money lines or look for an alternate game line for Baltimore and Los Angeles for a higher payout. It all depends on your level of risk aversion.

That’s all for now. Follow me at https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390 for any last-minute picks and Check back next week for more best bets and player props.

The Gambling Guru’s cumulative record for the 2020 NFL season heading into Week 3 is 47-43, hitting on 52% of his bets. Additionally, he is 3-2-1 on first TD scorer calls.

*First TD scorer and Parlay Plays are not counted in overall standings.

Any questions or comments?

Did we miss something? Let’s talk about it!

Find Anthony on Twitter right here! https://twitter.com/A_Volanti4390

Or on DFScheatsheets.com https://twitter.com/dfscheatsheet1